** WTSR20 WSSS 290600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 291200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 291200 UTC 00HR 12.9N 112.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 220KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 13.4N 110.4E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 13.8N 108.4E 998HPA 18M/S P+72HR 14.8N 105.4E 1000HPA 13M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 291200 *** WARNING 291200. WARNING VALID 301200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 985 HPA AT 12.8N 112.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 13.4N 111.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 14.0N 110.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 14.7N 108.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 291200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 291200UTC 12.8N 112.5E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 301200UTC 13.4N 111.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 311200UTC 14.0N 110.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 011200UTC 14.7N 108.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 291345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS. AT 291200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311200 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 291345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS. AT 291200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311200 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 291500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUB/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 12.9N 112.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 112.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 13.1N 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 13.4N 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 13.7N 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 14.2N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 15.8N 106.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 112.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.// ** WTNT21 KNHC 291434 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 1500Z SAT OCT 29 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING LA CEIBA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 81.7W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 81.7W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 81.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.2N 82.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.4N 83.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.4N 84.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.4N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.5N 87.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 89.0W...INLAND REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 81.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 291434 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 AN 1140Z TRMM OVERPASS SHOWS THAT BETA HAS A PINHOLE EYE UNDERNEATH ITS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH HAS CONVECTIVE TOPS OF -80C JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THESE AND ON THE EYE SIZE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 320/3...AND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BETA MAY BE MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OF THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES YESTERDAY HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWING RISING PRESSURES BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR 24-36 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE BETA TO TURN MORE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE NARROW BUT STRENGTHENING RIDGE. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE NORTHWARD UKMET AND THE MORE SOUTHWARD GFS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT BETA WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HR IN EASTERN OR NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN DURING THE FIRST 24 HR AND A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS THEREAFTER. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND A BIT SLOWER. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL IS SHOWING A 62 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS INCREASED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE PINHOLE EYE. BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL BRING BETA TO 95 KT BY LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THAT. HOWEVER... THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT BETA WILL GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER LANDFALL...BETA SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 13.9N 81.7W 75 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.2N 82.4W 85 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.4N 83.3W 95 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/0000Z 14.4N 84.4W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/1200Z 14.4N 85.7W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 01/1200Z 14.5N 87.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 02/1200Z 14.5N 89.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 291435 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 ...BETA STRENGTHENING...CENTER MOVING AWAY FROM PROVIDENCIA... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING LA CEIBA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 115 MILES... 185 KM...EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA...AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING ON PROVIDENCIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF BETA MOVES AWAY. HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA ...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...13.9 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 291435 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE BETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT TUE NOV 1 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 14.4N 83.3W 55 X X X 55 MHNJ 165N 859W 1 15 7 2 25 14.4N 84.4W 34 X 1 X 35 MNPC 141N 834W 49 X X X 49 14.4N 85.7W 14 10 2 1 27 MNBL 120N 839W 2 5 3 3 13 MWCG 193N 814W X X 1 1 2 SKSP 126N 817W 1 1 1 2 5 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 3 3 MRLM 100N 831W X X X 3 3 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 2 7 9 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 5 5 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 9 9 18 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 6 6 MGPB 157N 886W X 1 10 8 19 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 291506 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN BETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SABADO 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...BETA FORTALECIENDOSE...EL CENTRO ALEJANDOSE DE LA PROVIDENCIA... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE HONDURAS HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE PUNTA PATUCA HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. ESTA TAMBIEN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA DESDE BLUEFIELDS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECEN EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA CARIBENA DE NICARAGUA AL SUR DE BLUEFIELDS HASTA LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECRO PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON AL ESTE HASTA EL OESTE DE PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUYENDO LA CEIBA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATTIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.7 OESTE COMO A 45 MILLAS...75 KM...AL NORTE NOROESTE DE LA ISLA PROVIDENCIA. ESTO ES TAMBIEN COMO A 125 MILLAS...205 KM...AL SURESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA FRONTERA DE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS Y COMO A 115 MILLAS...185 KM...AL ESTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL OESTE NOROESTE Y UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE LLEVAR EL CENTRO DE BETA A LA COSTA NORESTE DE NICARAGUA Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. BETA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y BETA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN FUERTE HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...90 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 979 MB...28.91 PULGADAS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 10 A 15 PIES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONOCA EN LA PROVIDENCIA DEBEN DISMINUIR GRADUALMENTE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE BETA SE ALEJE. SE ESPERA QUE EL HURACAN BETA PRODUZCA LLUVIA TORRENCIAL CON CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...Y PROVIDENCIA CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS. LOS TOTALES DE LLUVIA EN PROVIDENCIA PODRIAN EXCEDER 25 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...13.9 NORTE... 81.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTJP31 RJTD 291500 *** WARNING 291500. WARNING VALID 301500. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 985 HPA AT 12.8N 112.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 13.4N 111.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 291500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 291500UTC 12.8N 112.4E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 301500UTC 13.4N 111.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 311200UTC 14.0N 110.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 011200UTC 14.7N 108.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 291724 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.10.2005 HURRICANE BETA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 81.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.10.2005 13.7N 81.6W MODERATE 00UTC 30.10.2005 13.7N 81.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.10.2005 14.3N 82.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.10.2005 15.0N 84.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.10.2005 16.2N 86.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.11.2005 17.1N 86.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.11.2005 18.0N 88.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.11.2005 18.0N 88.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.11.2005 18.0N 90.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.11.2005 18.7N 90.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.11.2005 19.0N 90.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.11.2005 19.5N 89.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 291724 ** WTNT31 KNHC 291739 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 ...BETA NOW MOVING WESTWARD AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING LA CEIBA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 105 KM...NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH... 8 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA...AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING ON PROVIDENCIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF BETA MOVES AWAY. HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA ...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...13.9 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 291747 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN BETA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 11A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SABADO 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...BETA MOVIENDOSE AL OESTE Y CONTINUA FORTALECIENDOSE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE PUNTA PATUCA HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA DESDE BLUEFIELDS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECEN EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA CARIBENA DE NICARAGUA AL SUR DE BLUEFIELDS HASTA LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECRO PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON AL ESTE HASTA EL OESTE DE PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUYENDO LA CEIBA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATTIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.1 OESTE COMO A 65 MILLAS...105 KM...AL NOROESTE DE LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. ESTO ES TAMBIEN COMO A 100 MILLAS...165 KM...AL SURESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA FRONTERA DE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS Y COMO A 85 MILLAS...135 KM...AL ESTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...8 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DEBE CONTINUAR A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAYOR DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE LLEVAR EL CENTRO DE BETA A LA COSTA NORESTE DE NICARAGUA Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 90 MPH...145 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. BETA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y BETA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN FUERTE HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA EN NICARAGUA...Y EXISTE LA PROBABILIDAD DE QUE SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 975 MB...28.79 PULGADAS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 10 A 15 PIES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONOCA EN LA PROVIDENCIA DEBEN DISMINUIR GRADUALMENTE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE BETA SE ALEJE. SE ESPERA QUE EL HURACAN BETA PRODUZCA LLUVIA TORRENCIAL CON CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...Y PROVIDENCIA CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS. LOS TOTALES DE LLUVIA EN PROVIDENCIA PODRIAN EXCEDER 25 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...13.9 NORTE... 82.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...975 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA