** WTNT31 KNHC 290617 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE EXTENT OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ...SLOW-MOVING BETA REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...CONTINUES TO LASH THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST... OR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 150 MILES... 240 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH ... 6 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES BETA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 25 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM FROM THE CENTER. PROVIDENCIA ISLAND HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. REPORTS FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA INDICATE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO HOMES HAS OCCURRED ON THE ISLAND... AND ALL COMMUNICATIONS TO PROVIDENCIA HAVE BEEN LOST. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS STILL POSSIBLE ON PROVIDENCIA WHILE THE CENTER OF BETA IS NEARBY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALLS WITH TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA ...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...13.6 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD ...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 290619 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN BETA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 9A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SABADO 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...BETA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE ALCANZA INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN... ...CONTINUA AFECTANDO LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA CON PELIGROSOS VIENTOS Y LLUVIA TORRENCIAL... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA DESDE BLUEFIELDS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA DEL CARIBE DE NICARAGUA DESDE EL SUR DE BLUEFIEDS HASTA LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE PUNTA PATUCA HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LAS COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON HACIA EL ESTE HASTA PUNTA PATUCA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATTIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.5 O JUSTAMENTE AL NOROESTE DE LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. ESTO ES TAMBIEN COMO A 150 MILLAS...240 KM...AL SURESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS Y COMO A 130 MILLAS...210 KM AL ESTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE O OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTO HACE DE BETA UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...25 KM...DEL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS...65 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. INFORMES DEL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE COLOMBIA INDICAN QUE HAN OCURRIDO EXTENSOS DANOS A LAS RESIDENCIAS DE LA ISLA Y LAS COMUNICACIONES CON PROVIDENCIA SE HAN CORTADO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA SE ESTIMA EN 987 MB...29.15 PULGADAS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS EN PROVIDENCIA A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE BETA PASE CERCA. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 8 A 13 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. SE ESPERA QUE EL HURACAN BETA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORESTE DE HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...Y PROVIDENCIA CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...13.6 NORTE... 81.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTCA31 MHTG 290625Z *** MHTG SIGMET 3 VALID 290600Z/291300Z MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA TC BETA OBS 13.6N 81.5W FRQ TS CB TPS FL500 CENTRE MVNG BTN N/NW 4 MPH INTSF. FCST 290600Z TC CENTRE 14.0N 81.8W. ** WTJP21 RJTD 290600 *** WARNING 290600. WARNING VALID 300600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 990 HPA AT 12.7N 112.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 13.3N 111.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 13.9N 110.4E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 14.7N 108.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 290600UTC 12.7N 112.9E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 300600UTC 13.3N 111.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 310600UTC 13.9N 110.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 010600UTC 14.7N 108.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 290600 UTC 00HR 12.8N 112.9E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 13.5N 110.6E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 14.2N 108.6E 995HPA 20M/S P+72HR 15.0N 105.8E 1000HPA 13M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 290600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 290600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 290745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300600 UTC ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310600 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (109.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 290745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300600 UTC ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310600 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (109.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTNT31 KNHC 290828 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 ...SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE BETA CONTINUES TO BATTER PROVIDENCIA ISLAND WITH DAMAGING WINDS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL... AND HIGH SURF... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS AND ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK... SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE... AND BETA COULD EVEN BECOME STATIONARY AT TIMES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND BETA COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM. PROVIDENCIA ISLAND HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. REPORTS FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA CONTINUE TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED TO HOMES... AND THERE ARE STILL NO COMMUNICATIONS WITH RESIDENTS ON THE ISLAND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS STILL POSSIBLE ON PROVIDENCIA WHILE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA IS NEARBY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA ...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 25 INCHES ON PROVIDENCIA ISLAND. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...13.7 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 290828 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 0900Z SAT OCT 29 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 81.5W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 81.5W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 81.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.1N 82.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.3N 83.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.4N 83.9W...INLAND NERN NICARAGUA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.4N 84.9W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.4N 86.9W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 14.5N 88.8W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 81.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 290829 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE BETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT TUE NOV 1 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 14.3N 83.0W 50 X X 1 51 MHNJ 165N 859W 1 12 6 4 23 14.4N 83.9W 35 X X 1 36 MNPC 141N 834W 40 X X X 40 14.4N 84.9W 20 4 2 1 27 MNBL 120N 839W 6 4 3 4 17 MWCG 193N 814W X 1 1 2 4 SKSP 126N 817W 99 X X X 99 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 4 4 MRLM 100N 831W X X 1 5 6 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 2 8 10 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 3 3 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 6 10 16 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 7 7 MGPB 157N 886W X 1 5 10 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 290900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUB/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 12.8N 112.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 112.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 13.0N 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 13.2N 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 13.5N 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 14.0N 109.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 15.5N 106.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 112.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.// ** WTCA41 TJSJ 290848 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN BETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SABADO 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...BETA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE CONTINUA AFECTANDO LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA CON FUERTES VIENTOS...LLUVIA TORRENCIAL Y FUERTES RESACAS... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. ESTA TAMBIEN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA DESDE BLUEFIELDS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE PUNTA PATUCA HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON HACIA EL ESTE HASTA PUNTA PATUCA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA DEL CARIBE DE NICARAGUA DESDE EL SUR DE BLUEFIEDS HASTA LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATTIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.5 OESTE COMO A 145 MILLAS...235 KM...AL SURESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS Y COMO A 130 MILLAS...210 KM...AL ESTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE U OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...DEBIDO A QUE SE ESPERA QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS PERMANEZCAN DEBILIES...ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO ES POSIBLE...Y BETA PODRIA INCLUSO TORNARSE ESTACIONARIA EN OCASIONES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. BETA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y BETA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN FUERTE HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...25 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA HA ESTADO EXPERIMENTANDO VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. INFORMES DEL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE COLOMBIA CONTINUA INDICANDO EXTENSOS DANOS A LAS RESIDENCIAS...Y AUN NO SE TIENE COMUNICACION CON LOS RESIDENTES DE LA ISLA . LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 985 MB...29.09 PULGADAS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS EN PROVIDENCIA MIENTRAS EL CENTRO DE BETA SE MANTENGA CERCA. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 10 A 13 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. SE ESPERA QUE EL HURACAN BETA PRODUZCA LLUVIA TORRENCIAL CON CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORESTE DE HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...Y PROVIDENCIA CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS. LOS TOTALES DE LLUVIA EN PROVIDENCIA PODRIAN EXCEDER 25 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...13.7 NORTE... 81.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...985 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTNT41 KNHC 290900 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE BETA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE 13TH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON. A 29/0211Z SSMI OVERPASS THAT WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY REVEALED A VERY SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION... WHICH MEANS BETA WAS PROBABLY A HURRICANE AT 00Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 320/03. THE CENTER POSITION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE UNTIL THE PAST HOUR WHEN AN EYE FEATURE/PRONOUNCED WARM SPOT BECAME APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY NORTH OF PROVIDENCIA ISLAND. THE OVERALL MOTION...HOWEVER ...HAS BEEN VERY SLOW AND BETA MAY EVEN BE STATIONARY. THE COMPACT HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES... WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AND CENTRAL AMERICA. MOST OF THE NHC MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERESTIMATE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND INSIST ON DRIVING BETA WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER... THEY HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS MOTION FOR NEARLY 3 DAYS NOW AND IT HASN'T HAPPENED YET. THE EXCEPTIONS HAVE BEEN THE UKMET... CANADIAN AND SOME OF THE SIMPLER STATISTICAL MODELS... WHICH HAVE BEEN TAKING BETA ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AN INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THOSE MODELS HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD BIAS AND ALSO A FAST SPEED BIAS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS INDUCING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BETA TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD AND SLOWLY NUDGE THE HURRICANE INTO NICARAGUA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE MENTIONED EARLIER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW 10 KT BY 24 HOURS. THE VERY WARM SSTS AND THE UNUSUALLY MOIST MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE CONDUCIVE TO BETA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... IF COLD UPWELLING DOES NOT OCCUR BENEATH THE SLOW MOVING CYCLONE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BETA COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA... CAUSING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE... AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN ADDITION... SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... RESULTING IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CUBA... FLORIDA... AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 13.7N 81.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 14.1N 82.1W 80 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 14.3N 83.0W 90 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 14.4N 83.9W 50 KT...INLAND NERN NICARAGUA 48HR VT 31/0600Z 14.4N 84.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 01/0600Z 14.4N 86.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 96HR VT 02/0600Z 14.5N 88.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 120HR VT 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 290900 *** WARNING 290900. WARNING VALID 300900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 990 HPA AT 12.8N 112.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 13.5N 111.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 290900UTC 12.8N 112.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 300900UTC 13.5N 111.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 310600UTC 13.9N 110.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 010600UTC 14.7N 108.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 290900 *** WARNING 290900. WARNING VALID 300900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 990 HPA AT 12.8N 112.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 13.5N 111.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 290900UTC 12.8N 112.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 300900UTC 13.5N 111.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 310600UTC 13.9N 110.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 010600UTC 14.7N 108.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 291045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310900 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 291045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310900 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTNT31 KNHC 291141 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 ...SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE BETA CONTINUES TO BATTER PROVIDENCIA ISLAND WITH DAMAGING WINDS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL... AND HIGH SURF... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PROVIDENCIA ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS AND ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM...EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK... SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE... AND BETA COULD EVEN BECOME STATIONARY AT TIMES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND BETA COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM. REPORTS FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA CONTINUE TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED TO HOMES ON PROVIDENCIA... AND THERE ARE STILL NO COMMUNICATIONS WITH RESIDENTS ON THE ISLAND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS STILL POSSIBLE ON PROVIDENCIA WHILE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA IS NEARBY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA ...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 25 INCHES ON PROVIDENCIA ISLAND. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...13.8 N... 81.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 291155 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN BETA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SABADO 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...BETA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE CONTINUA AFECTANDO LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA CON FUERTES VIENTOS...LLUVIA TORRENCIAL Y FUERTES RESACAS... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. ESTA TAMBIEN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA DESDE BLUEFIELDS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE PUNTA PATUCA HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON HACIA EL ESTE HASTA PUNTA PATUCA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA DEL CARIBE DE NICARAGUA DESDE EL SUR DE BLUEFIEDS HASTA LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATTIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.6 OESTE COMO A 35 MILLAS...55 KM...AL NORTE NOROESTE DE LA ISLA PROVIDENCIA. ESTO ES TAMBIEN COMO A 130 MILLAS...210 KM...AL SURESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS Y COMO A 120 MILLAS...195 KM...AL ESTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE CON UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE U OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...DEBIDO A QUE SE ESPERA QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS PERMANEZCAN DEBILES...ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO ES POSIBLE...Y BETA PODRIA INCLUSO TORNARSE ESTACIONARIA EN OCASIONES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. BETA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y BETA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN FUERTE HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS. INFORMES DEL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE COLOMBIA CONTINUAN INDICANDO EXTENSOS DANOS A LAS RESIDENCIAS EN PROVIDENCIA...Y AUN NO SE TIENE COMUNICACION CON LOS RESIDENTES DE LA ISLA . LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 984 MB...29.06 PULGADAS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS EN PROVIDENCIA MIENTRAS EL CENTRO DE BETA SE MANTENGA CERCA. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 10 A 13 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. SE ESPERA QUE EL HURACAN BETA PRODUZCA LLUVIA TORRENCIAL CON CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...Y PROVIDENCIA CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS. LOS TOTALES DE LLUVIA EN PROVIDENCIA PODRIAN EXCEDER 25 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...13.8 NORTE... 81.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...984 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTCA41 TJSJ 291155 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN BETA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SABADO 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...BETA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE CONTINUA AFECTANDO LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA CON FUERTES VIENTOS...LLUVIA TORRENCIAL Y FUERTES RESACAS... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. ESTA TAMBIEN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA DESDE BLUEFIELDS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE PUNTA PATUCA HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON HACIA EL ESTE HASTA PUNTA PATUCA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA DEL CARIBE DE NICARAGUA DESDE EL SUR DE BLUEFIEDS HASTA LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATTIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.6 OESTE COMO A 35 MILLAS...55 KM...AL NORTE NOROESTE DE LA ISLA PROVIDENCIA. ESTO ES TAMBIEN COMO A 130 MILLAS...210 KM...AL SURESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS Y COMO A 120 MILLAS...195 KM...AL ESTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE CON UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE U OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...DEBIDO A QUE SE ESPERA QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS PERMANEZCAN DEBILES...ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO ES POSIBLE...Y BETA PODRIA INCLUSO TORNARSE ESTACIONARIA EN OCASIONES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. BETA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y BETA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN FUERTE HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS. INFORMES DEL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE COLOMBIA CONTINUAN INDICANDO EXTENSOS DANOS A LAS RESIDENCIAS EN PROVIDENCIA...Y AUN NO SE TIENE COMUNICACION CON LOS RESIDENTES DE LA ISLA . LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 984 MB...29.06 PULGADAS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS EN PROVIDENCIA MIENTRAS EL CENTRO DE BETA SE MANTENGA CERCA. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 10 A 13 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. SE ESPERA QUE EL HURACAN BETA PRODUZCA LLUVIA TORRENCIAL CON CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...Y PROVIDENCIA CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS. LOS TOTALES DE LLUVIA EN PROVIDENCIA PODRIAN EXCEDER 25 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...13.8 NORTE... 81.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...984 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA