** WTSR20 WSSS 281800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSS20 VHHH 290145 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 282100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310000 UTC ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (13.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (14.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 290145 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 282100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310000 UTC ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (13.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (14.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTCA31 MHTG 290040Z *** MHTG SIGMET 1 290030/290630 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA TC BETA OBS 2100Z LAT 13.3N LONG 81.1W FRQ TS CB TPS FL450 CENTRE MOV N 5MPH INTSF. FCST 0630Z TC CENTRE LAT 13.3N LONG 81.2W= ** WTSS20 VHHH 290045 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 282100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310000 UTC ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (13.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (14.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTJP21 RJTD 290000 *** WARNING 290000. WARNING VALID 300000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 12.6N 113.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 13.0N 112.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 13.6N 111.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 14.5N 108.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 290000UTC 12.6N 113.5E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 70NM FORECAST 24HF 300000UTC 13.0N 112.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 310000UTC 13.6N 111.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 010000UTC 14.5N 108.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 290000 UTC 00HR 12.5N 113.6E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 120KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 13.0N 111.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 13.6N 109.3E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 15.0N 106.8E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 290145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WAS NAMED AS KAI-TAK (0521). AT 290000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310000 UTC ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (13.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 290145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WAS NAMED AS KAI-TAK (0521). AT 290000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310000 UTC ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (13.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 290300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 22W WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 12.5N 113.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 113.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 12.3N 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 12.4N 110.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 13.0N 109.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 13.7N 108.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 14.9N 106.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 112.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.// ** WTKO20 RKSL 290000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0521 KAI-TAK ANALYSIS POSITION 290000UTC 12.6N 113.5E MOVEMENT W 4KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 300000UTC 13.2N 112.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT 48HR POSITION 310000UTC 13.7N 110.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 010000UTC 14.6N 108.7E WITHIN 190NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTSS20 VHHH 290145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA WAS NAMED KAI-TAK(0521). AT 290000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310000 UTC ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (13.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTNT31 KNHC 290237 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 ...BETA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...LASHING THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z..THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 220 KM...EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME SOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM FROM THE CENTER. PROVIDENCIA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE FOR THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS STILL POSSIBLE ON PROVIDENCIA WHILE THE CENTER OF BETA IS NEARBY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALLS WITH TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA ...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...13.6 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD ...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 290238 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN IN DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA AND HAS BEEN RECEIVING WEATHER DATA FROM SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. DATA FROM THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BETA IS MOVING OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLAND. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 00Z WAS 995 MB AND WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WERE 50 TO 55 KNOTS ONE HOUR EARLIER. A NEW REPORT JUST RECEIVED FROM THE ISLAND INDICATES THAT THE WINDS ARE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH. BETA IS GOING THROUGH ITS USUAL UP AND DOWN CYCLE IN THE CONVECTION AND NOW IT IS ON THE UPWARD TREND WITH A VENGEANCE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BETA IS ABOUT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND THE TIME OF LANDFALL OVER NICARAGUA OR EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS TREND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND WITH THE GFDL MODEL WHICH TENACIOUSLY MAKES BETA A 95 TO 100-KT HURRICANE. BETA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS. IT SEEMS THAT THE LEFT TURN INDICATED BY THE PARADE OF MODELS LED BY THE GFDL IS BEGINNING. IT WOULD BE FOOLISH NOT TO FOLLOW THESE ADVANCED MODELS...AND RIGHTFULLY SO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN TURNING BETA WESTWARD. THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A NORTHWARD TRACK BUT THE CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS NEW PATTERN WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE BETA TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE BE PREPARED FOR THIS EVENT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 13.6N 81.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 14.0N 81.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 14.5N 82.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 14.5N 83.5W 85 KT 48HR VT 31/0000Z 14.5N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 01/0000Z 14.5N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 02/0000Z 14.5N 88.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 290238 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 0300Z SAT OCT 29 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z..THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 81.4W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 81.4W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 81.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.0N 81.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.5N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.5N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 14.5N 88.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 15.0N 90.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 81.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 290238 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT MON OCT 31 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 14.5N 82.5W 60 X X X 60 MGPB 157N 886W X X 5 11 16 14.5N 83.5W 36 X 1 X 37 MHNJ 165N 859W X 11 8 4 23 14.5N 84.5W 20 7 2 1 30 MNPC 141N 834W 34 1 X X 35 MWCG 193N 814W X X 2 2 4 MNBL 120N 839W 2 5 4 4 15 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 SKSP 126N 817W 99 X X X 99 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 4 4 MRLM 100N 831W X X 1 3 4 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 1 8 9 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 4 4 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 4 11 15 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 290300UTC 12.6N 113.2E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 70NM FORECAST 24HF 300300UTC 13.0N 112.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 310000UTC 13.6N 111.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 010000UTC 14.5N 108.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 290445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAI-TAK (0521) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS. AT 290300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300300 UTC ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310300 UTC ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 290445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAI-TAK (0521) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS. AT 290300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300300 UTC ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310300 UTC ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 290528 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM BETA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 81.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.10.2005 13.6N 81.3W MODERATE 12UTC 29.10.2005 13.7N 81.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.10.2005 14.5N 81.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.10.2005 14.9N 83.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.10.2005 15.9N 85.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.10.2005 16.2N 87.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 290528 ** WTNT31 KNHC 290554 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 ...SLOW-MOVING BETA REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...CONTINUES TO LASH THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST... OR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 150 MILES... 240 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH ... 6 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES BETA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM FROM THE CENTER. PROVIDENCIA ISLAND HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. REPORTS FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA INDICATE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO HOMES HAS OCCURRED ON THE ISLAND... AND ALL COMMUNICATIONS TO PROVIDENCIA HAVE BEEN LOST. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS STILL POSSIBLE ON PROVIDENCIA WHILE THE CENTER OF BETA IS NEARBY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALLS WITH TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA ...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...13.6 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD ...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 290600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 29-10-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH EAST AND WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BANGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 18.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)