** WTNT80 EGRR 281757 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM BETA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 80.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.10.2005 12.3N 80.9W MODERATE 00UTC 29.10.2005 13.5N 80.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 29.10.2005 13.7N 81.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.10.2005 14.6N 81.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.10.2005 14.8N 83.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.10.2005 15.4N 83.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.10.2005 16.5N 85.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.11.2005 16.6N 87.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.11.2005 18.0N 87.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.11.2005 18.7N 88.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.11.2005 18.4N 88.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281757 ** WTPQ20 RJTD 281800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 281800UTC 12.6N 113.6E FAIR MOVE W 07KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 291800UTC 12.6N 112.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTCA31 MHTG 281932 *** MHTG SIGMET5 VALID 281800/290000 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA TC BETA OBS 1800Z LAT 13.1N LOG 81.2W FRQ TS CB TPS FL450 CENTRE MOV N 3 KNOTS INTSF. FCST 0000Z TC CENTRE LAT 13.3N LOG 81.2W= ** WTSS20 VHHH 281945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291800 UTC ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301800 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311800 UTC ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 281945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291800 UTC ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301800 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311800 UTC ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTNT31 KNHC 282032 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 ...CENTER OF BETA NEAR PROVIDENCIA...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM... NORTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 260 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM FROM THE CENTER. REPORTS FROM PROVIDENICA RELAYED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ON PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES ...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...13.3 N... 81.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 282032 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT MON OCT 31 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 14.3N 82.0W 66 X X X 66 MGPB 157N 886W X X 4 10 14 14.6N 82.9W 43 X X X 43 MHNJ 165N 859W X 8 9 5 22 14.8N 83.9W 23 7 X 1 31 MNPC 141N 834W 31 1 X 1 33 MWCG 193N 814W X X 2 4 6 MNBL 120N 839W 2 4 3 3 12 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 SKSP 126N 817W 99 X X X 99 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 4 4 MRLM 100N 831W X X X 2 2 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 8 8 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 3 3 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 3 11 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 282033 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 2100Z FRI OCT 28 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 81.1W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 81.1W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 81.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.8N 81.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.3N 82.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.6N 82.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.8N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.0N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 16.0N 89.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 81.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 282035 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 2100Z FRI OCT 28 2005 ...CORRECTED DISPOSITION AT 96 AND 120 HR... AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 81.1W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 81.1W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 81.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.8N 81.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.3N 82.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.6N 82.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.8N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.0N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 88.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 16.0N 89.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 81.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTIO31 PGTW 282100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 79.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 79.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.8N 77.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 17.4N 76.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 78.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL NEAR ONGOLE, INDIA AT APPROXIMATELY 281200Z. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 282100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 79.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 79.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.8N 77.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 17.4N 76.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 78.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL NEAR ONGOLE, INDIA AT APPROXIMATELY 281200Z. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 282100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280921ZOCT2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 12.7N 113.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 113.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 12.8N 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 13.0N 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 13.4N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 13.9N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 15.2N 106.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 113.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 280921ZOCT2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 280930) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 282055 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS JUST MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 MB AND REPORTED A PARTIAL 15 N MI WIDE EYE. HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE 51 KT...WHICH GENERALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT THE 55 KT INTENSITY SUGGESTED BY THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. IT MAY BE THAT A TIGHTER INNER CORE EXISTED EARLIER AND WAS DISRUPTED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND IS JUST NOW COMING BACK TOGETHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 360/4. WHILE THE CENTER FIXES DO NOT YET SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION...A NET NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE CLOUD MASS MAY BE A PRECURSOR OF THE EXPECTED NORTHWESTWARD TURN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST HEIGHTS TO RISE IN THESE AREAS AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC IN 12-18 HR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS SLOWLY BUILDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD TURN BETA MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND MORE WESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS STILL CALL FOR A WESTWARD TURN...ALTHOUGH ALL THREE ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. THE UKMET STILL CALLS FOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN...BUT STILL BRINGS BETA INLAND IN NICARAGUA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH FOR THE FIRST 48 HR...CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IN 36-48 HR. THE NEW TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF THE UKMET AND JUST NORTH OF THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE 15 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER BETA. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THIS WILL PERSIST FOR 12 HR OR SO...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REDUCED SLIGHTLY DURING THAT TIME. AFTER THE SHEAR DECREASES... CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING... AND THE GFDL BRINGS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE INTO NICARAGUA. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR BETA TO REACH 85 KT BEFORE LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL... ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAINS...AND IT MAY BE THAT HANGING ON TO IT FOR 120 HR MAY BE GENEROUS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED DOWNWARD BASED ON SURFACE AND AIRCRAFT DATA. BETA HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO GROW IN SIZE THAN ANTICIPATED...AND IT MAY BE THAT EVEN THE NEW FORECAST RADII ARE TOO LARGE. WHILE THE WINDS MAY SPREAD ONSHORE LATER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BE SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA STARTING TONIGHT. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 13.3N 81.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 13.8N 81.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 14.3N 82.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 14.6N 82.9W 85 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 14.8N 83.9W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/1800Z 15.0N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 02/1800Z 16.0N 89.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 282055 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS JUST MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 MB AND REPORTED A PARTIAL 15 N MI WIDE EYE. HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE 51 KT...WHICH GENERALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT THE 55 KT INTENSITY SUGGESTED BY THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. IT MAY BE THAT A TIGHTER INNER CORE EXISTED EARLIER AND WAS DISRUPTED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND IS JUST NOW COMING BACK TOGETHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 360/4. WHILE THE CENTER FIXES DO NOT YET SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION...A NET NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE CLOUD MASS MAY BE A PRECURSOR OF THE EXPECTED NORTHWESTWARD TURN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST HEIGHTS TO RISE IN THESE AREAS AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC IN 12-18 HR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS SLOWLY BUILDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD TURN BETA MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND MORE WESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS STILL CALL FOR A WESTWARD TURN...ALTHOUGH ALL THREE ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. THE UKMET STILL CALLS FOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN...BUT STILL BRINGS BETA INLAND IN NICARAGUA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH FOR THE FIRST 48 HR...CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IN 36-48 HR. THE NEW TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF THE UKMET AND JUST NORTH OF THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE 15 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER BETA. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THIS WILL PERSIST FOR 12 HR OR SO...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REDUCED SLIGHTLY DURING THAT TIME. AFTER THE SHEAR DECREASES... CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING... AND THE GFDL BRINGS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE INTO NICARAGUA. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR BETA TO REACH 85 KT BEFORE LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL... ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAINS...AND IT MAY BE THAT HANGING ON TO IT FOR 120 HR MAY BE GENEROUS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED DOWNWARD BASED ON SURFACE AND AIRCRAFT DATA. BETA HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO GROW IN SIZE THAN ANTICIPATED...AND IT MAY BE THAT EVEN THE NEW FORECAST RADII ARE TOO LARGE. WHILE THE WINDS MAY SPREAD ONSHORE LATER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BE SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA STARTING TONIGHT. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 13.3N 81.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 13.8N 81.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 14.3N 82.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 14.6N 82.9W 85 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 14.8N 83.9W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/1800Z 15.0N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 02/1800Z 16.0N 89.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 282107 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 8 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT VIERNES 28 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...CENTRO DE BETA CERCA DE PROVIDENCIA...UN AVION CAZA HURACAN ENCUENTRA POCO CAMBIA EN INTENSIDAD... A LAS 5 PM EDT...EL GOBIERNO DE NICARAGUA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA DESDE BLUEFIELDS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA DEL CARIBE DE NICARAGUA HACIA EL SUR HASTA BLUEFIEDS HASTA LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN VIGOR PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON AL ESTE HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DEBEN COMPLETARSE LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD INMEDIATAMENTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.1 OESTE O JUSTO AL ESTE DE LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. ESTO ES TAMBIEN COMO A 70 MILLAS...110 KM...AL NORESTE DE LA ISLA DE SAN ANDRES Y COMO A 160 MILLAS...260 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE BETA DEBERA PASAR CERCA DE LA ISLA PROVIDENCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. INFORMES DE UNA AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS DE CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HOAWS...Y BETA PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN ESTA NOCHE O EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS...65 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. INFORMES DE PROVIDENCIA RECIBIDOS DESDE EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE COLOMBIA INDICAN QUE VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN OCURRIENDO EN LA ISLA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA IFORMADA POR UN CAZAHURACANES ES DE 990 MB...29.23 PULGADAS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS EN PROVIDENCIA A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE BETA PASE CERCA. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 8 A 13 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO HAGA TIERRA. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORESTE DE HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...Y PROVIDENCIA CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...13.3 NORTE... 81.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTPQ20 RJTD 282100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 282100UTC 12.6N 113.5E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 292100UTC 12.6N 112.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 282245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 282100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 292100 UTC ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 302100 UTC ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 312100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 282245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 282100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 292100 UTC ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 302100 UTC ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 312100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTNT31 KNHC 282340 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 ...SUSTAINED 58 MPH WINDS IN THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST...NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS MOTION...THE CENTER OF BETA WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM FROM THE CENTER. REPORTS FROM PROVIDENCIA RELAYED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 58 MPH....93 KM/HR WERE JUST RECORDED ON THE ISLAND...AND NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ROOF DAMAGE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ON PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES ...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...13.4 N... 81.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$