** WTCA41 TJSJ 281202 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT VIERNES 28 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA CERCA DE SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS DE SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA COSTA CARIBENA DE NICARAGUA DESDE LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA HACIA EL NORTE A CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. AVISOS DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SERAN REQUERIDO PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DE NICARAGUA MAS TARDE HOY. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.2 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS...60 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LA ISLA DE SAN ANDRES Y COMO A 180 MILLAS...290 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE O NORTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON UN POSIBLE GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE MAS TARDE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KILOMETROS POR HORAS...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y BETA PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. UN BARCO LOCALIZADO AL SUR DEL CENTRO INFORMO VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS DE 58 MPH A LAS 5 AM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 993 MB...29.32 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS EN SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE BETA PASA CERCA DEL AREA. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORESTE DE HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...Y PROVIDENCIA. CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...12.6 NORTE... 81.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...993 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTSR20 WSSS 280600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSS20 VHHH 281345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291200 UTC ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311200 UTC ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 281345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291200 UTC ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311200 UTC ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTNT71 KNHC 281434 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT MON OCT 31 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 13.9N 81.8W 67 X X X 67 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 1 11 12 14.2N 82.6W 45 X 1 X 46 MGPB 157N 886W X X 2 11 13 14.6N 83.6W 24 8 1 X 33 MHNJ 165N 859W X 4 11 6 21 MWCG 193N 814W X X 2 6 8 MNPC 141N 834W 29 3 1 X 33 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 2 2 MNBL 120N 839W 3 5 3 3 14 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 4 4 SKSP 126N 817W 99 X X X 99 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 2 2 MRLM 100N 831W X X X 2 2 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 4 4 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 7 7 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 281435 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 ...BETA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM...NORTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 185 MILES... 300 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR PROVIDENCIA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES ...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...12.9 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 281435 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 1500Z FRI OCT 28 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 81.2W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 15SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 81.2W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 81.2W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.3N 81.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.9N 81.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.2N 82.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.6N 83.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.0N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 15.0N 87.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 15.5N 88.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 81.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 281445 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT VIERNES 28 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...BETA SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE...HAN OCURRIDO POCOS CAMBIOS EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS DE SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA COSTA CARIBENA DE NICARAGUA DESDE LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA HACIA EL NORTE A CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. AVISOS DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SERAN REQUERIDO PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DE NICARAGUA MAS TARDE HOY. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE HONDURAS HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON AL ESTE HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.2 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS...70 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LA ISLA DE SAN ANDRES Y COMO A 185 MILLAS...300 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE BETA DEBERA PASAR CERCA DE PROVIDENCIA MAS TARDE DURANTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KILOMETROS POR HORAS...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y BETA PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 993 MB...29.32 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS EN SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE BETA PASA CERCA DEL AREA. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORESTE DE HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...Y PROVIDENCIA. CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...12.9 NORTE... 81.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...993 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTNT41 KNHC 281452 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 BETA IS GENERATING STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -86C. HOWEVER...OVERPASSES FROM AMSR-E AT 0705Z AND SSM/I AT 1148Z SUGGEST THE STORM HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SHEARED...WITH THE CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THERE ARE HINTS OF THIS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL. WHILE CIRRUS EAST OF BETA ARE BLOWING TOWARD THE CENTER...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW ONLY ABOUT 10 KT OF SHEAR...WHICH IF CORRECT DOES NOT FULLY EXPLAIN THE APPARENT STRUCTURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE AND A 50 KT REPORT AT 0900Z FROM SHIPS ZCAM4 JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE BETA THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/4. BETA IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RAWINSONDE DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST HEIGHTS TO RISE IN THESE AREAS AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC IN 12-24 HR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS BUILDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD TURN BETA MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AND MORE WESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF ALL CALL FOR A VERY SHARP TURN...WHILE THE UKMET AND CANADIAN CALL FOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IN 36-48 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE UKMET BUT NORTH OF THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS. IF BETA IS AS SHEARED AS THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS...THEN THE SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION COULD BE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO DECREASE IN 12-18 HR...AND THE GFDL IS CALLING FOR BETA TO REACH 95 KT BEFORE LANDFALL. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR BETA TO REACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT COULD DISSIPATE FASTER THAN FORECAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ONE OUTER RAINBAND IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. AS BETA GETS CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS...FLOODS...AND MUDSLIDES WILL INCREASE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 12.9N 81.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 13.3N 81.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 13.9N 81.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 14.2N 82.6W 85 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 14.6N 83.6W 80 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/1200Z 15.0N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/1200Z 15.0N 87.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 02/1200Z 15.5N 88.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 281645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (114.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291500 UTC ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301500 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311500 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (14.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 281645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (114.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291500 UTC ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301500 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311500 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (14.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTNT31 KNHC 281740 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 ...BETA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND APPROACHING PROVIDENCIA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR SAN ANDRES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES... 30 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...NORTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 190 MILES... 305 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR PROVIDENCIA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN BETA SHORTLY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES ...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...13.1 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 281750 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT VIERNES 28 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...BETA SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE Y SE ACERCA A PROVIDENCIA... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS DE PROVIDENCIA. EL GOBIERNO DE COLOMBIA HA DESCONTINUADO TODOS LOS AVISOS PARA SAN ANDRES. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA COSTA CARIBENA DE NICARAGUA DESDE LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA HACIA EL NORTE A CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. AVISOS DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SERAN REQUERIDO PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DE NICARAGUA MAS TARDE HOY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN VIGOR PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON AL ESTE HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.2 OESTE O COMO A 20 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE LA ISLA PROVIDENCIA Y COMO A 50 MILLAS...80 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE LA ISLA SAN ANDRES Y COMO A 190 MILLAS...305 KILOMETROS... AL ESTE NORESTE DE BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE BETA DEBERA PASAR CERCA DE PROVIDENCIA MAS TARDE DURANTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KILOMETROS POR HORAS...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES PRONOSTICADO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y BETA PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTARA INVESTIGANDO BETA EN BREVE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 993 MB...29.32 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS EN SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE BETA PASA CERCA DEL AREA. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORESTE DE HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...Y PROVIDENCIA. CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...13.1 NORTE... 81.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...993 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA