** WTNT31 KNHC 280833 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM BETA GETTING CLOSER TO SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 60 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 285 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A POSSIBLE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES ...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...12.3 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 280835 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 0900Z FRI OCT 28 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 81.2W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 15SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 81.2W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 81.2W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.8N 81.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.4N 81.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.8N 82.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.1N 83.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.5N 84.9W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 14.7N 86.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 15.0N 88.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 81.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 280837 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON OCT 31 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 13.4N 81.8W 67 X X X 67 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 9 9 13.8N 82.4W 45 X X X 45 MGPB 157N 886W X X 1 10 11 14.1N 83.1W 31 2 X 1 34 MHNJ 165N 859W X 2 8 8 18 MWCG 193N 814W X X 1 7 8 MNPC 141N 834W 26 3 1 1 31 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 3 3 MNBL 120N 839W 7 4 3 3 17 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 3 3 SKSP 126N 817W 99 X X X 99 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 5 5 MRLM 100N 831W X X 1 4 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 280825 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-10-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AT MACHILIPATNAM INDICATE THAT THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL LAY CENTERED AT 0830 HRS. IST OF 28TH OCTOBER, 2005 CLOSE TO ONGOLE THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CROSS SOUTH ANDHRA COAST BETWEEN ONGOLE AND BAPATLA BY NOON TODAY ASSOCIATED BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH, RAYALSEEMA, SOUTH TELANGANA EXTENDING TO NORTH TAMILNADU EASTERN PARTS OF KARNATAKA AND WEST CENTRAL BAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SYSTEM (.) ** WTCA41 TJSJ 280846 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT VIERNES 28 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA CERCA DE SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS DE SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA COSTA CARIBENA DE NICARAGUA DESDE LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA HACIA EL NORTE A CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. AVISOS DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SERAN REQUERIDO PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DE NICARAGUA MAS TARDE HOY. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.2 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS...60 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA ISLA DE SAN ANDRES Y COMO A 175 MILLAS...285 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE O NORTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON UN POSIBLE GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE MAS TARDE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KILOMETROS POR HORAS...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y BETA PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 994 MB...29.41 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS EN SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE BETA PASA CERCA DEL AREA. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORESTE DE HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...Y PROVIDENCIA. CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...12.3 NORTE... 81.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...994 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTNT41 KNHC 280903 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAD BEEN ON THE WANE... BUT DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO BETA HAS BEEN MAKING A SLIGHT COMEBACK. A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION... ALBEIT A SMALL AREA... HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C AND COLDER. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z REVEALED A PRONOUNCED BUT SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER... A 28/0110Z SSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED THE EYE FEATURE HAD BEEN DISRUPTED BY SOME EASTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB... T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB... AND T3.0/45 KT FROM AFWA. A 27/2300Z QUIKSCAT HI-RES OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED NO WIND VECTORS... FLAGGED AND UNFLAGGED... HIGHER THAN 40 KT. HOWEVER... THE VERY SMALL INNER CORE NOTED IN EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA WOULD LIKELY BE UNDERSAMPLED BY QUIKSCAT. GIVEN THE DISRUPTION OF THE EYE FEATURE ...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT... WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN A STEADY 360/03 FOR THE PAST 14 HOURS... AND THAT IS THE MOTION USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS LESS THAN STRAIGHTFORWARD. FIRST... A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350 NMI NORTHEAST OF BETA HAS DEVELOPED SOME IMPRESSIVE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION... WHICH WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN THAT SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SOME POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM THAT THE 28/00Z NAM ALLUDED TO. SECOND... THERE IS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL SUITE. THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...GFS ENSEMBLE... AND ECMWF MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IMMEDIATELY FROM THE CURRENT POSITION. IN CONTRAST... THE UKMET...CANADIAN... CLIPER...LBAR...AND NHC98 MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FIRST GROUP APPEARS TO HAVE TO MUCH RIDGE TO THE NORTH INITIALIZED... POSSIBLY DUE TO THE 00Z HEIGHTS AT SAN ANDRES BEING TOO HIGH. THE 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASED 20 METERS BETWEEN 27/12Z AND 28/00Z...EVEN THOUGH BETA MOVED 30 NMI CLOSER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES... EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUNA AND GUNS MODELS. SSTS ARE VERY WARM AT 29C AND HIGHER... AND THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE ONLY SLIGHT INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE VERTICAL SHEAR... WHICH IS FORECAST TO IN CREWASE TO 15 KT BY 24 HOURS... BEFORE DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL. WIND RADII WERE DECREASED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT WINDS AND A NORTHWEST 30-KT WIND REPORT AT 06Z FROM SHIP ZCAM4 LOCATED ABOUT 48 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 12.3N 81.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 12.8N 81.4W 65 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 13.4N 81.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 13.8N 82.4W 85 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 14.1N 83.1W 90 KT 72HR VT 31/0600Z 14.5N 84.9W 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 01/0600Z 14.7N 86.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 120HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 88.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND $$ ** WTIO31 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 80.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 80.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 16.1N 79.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.6N 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 80.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 280516Z AMSU PASS REVEALS THAT THE STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS DECOUPLED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 282100Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 280930 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 280921ZOCT2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 115.8E TO 12.9N 110.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 280600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 115.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 116.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 115.3E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BENEATH AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO SUPERPOSED WITH AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC 850 MB VORTICITY LOBE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 290930Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 280930 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 280921ZOCT2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 115.8E TO 12.9N 110.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 280600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 115.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 116.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 115.3E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BENEATH AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO SUPERPOSED WITH AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC 850 MB VORTICITY LOBE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 290930Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 80.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 80.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 16.1N 79.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.6N 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 80.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 280516Z AMSU PASS REVEALS THAT THE STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS DECOUPLED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 282100Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 281045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 HECTOPASCALS. AT 280900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290900 UTC ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (13.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310900 UTC ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 281045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 HECTOPASCALS. AT 280900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290900 UTC ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (13.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310900 UTC ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTNT31 KNHC 281139 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM BETA GETTING CLOSER TO SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 60 KM... EAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A POSSIBLE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. A SHIP LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 58 MPH AT 5 AM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES ...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...12.6 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$