** WTCA41 TJSJ 280001 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 4A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT JUEVES 27 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...BETA LENTAMENTE MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE...SE ESPERA QUE SE CONVIERTA UN HURACAN EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS DE SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA COSTA CARIBENA DE NICARAGUA DESDE LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA AL NORTE A CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SERA PROBABLEMENTE REQUERIDO PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DE NICARAGUA ESTA NOCHE O EL VIERNES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS RAPIDAMENTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE...GENEALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.4 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE LA ISLA DE SAN ANDRES Y COMO A 160 MILLAS...255 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A 3 MPH. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO PODRIA TRAER EL CENTRO DE BETA CERCA DE SAN ANDRES DURANTE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORAS...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS....Y BETA PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN LAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O DURANTE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MB...29.44 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN INUNDACIONES PRODUCIDAS POR LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS EN SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA AL PASAR DE CERCA EL CENTRO DE BETA. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE PANAMA...COSTA RICA Y NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...11.9 NORTE... 81.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE A 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTSR20 WSSS 271800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT31 KNHC 280244 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 ...BETA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD...BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA EARLY FRIDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH ... 4 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TO NORTHWEST AND WEST THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...12.1 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 280244 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 0300Z FRI OCT 28 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA EARLY FRIDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 81.4W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 81.4W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 81.3W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.5N 81.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.0N 81.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.5N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 13.5N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 13.5N 87.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 81.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 280244 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 BETA IS DEFINITELY NOT INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY TONIGHT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ONLY A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. SSM/I MICROWAVE DATA AT 2344Z CONTINUES TO SHOW A HINT OF AN EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED MODESTLY TO 55 KNOTS. BETA IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM AND BASED ON SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM SAN ANDRES PROVIDED BY THE COLOMBIAN WEATHER SERVICE...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII HAS BEEN REDUCED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SURFACE WINDS AT SAN ANDRES NEAR 00Z WERE ONLY 11 KNOTS...AND THE CENTER OF BETA IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 35 N MI FROM THAT LOCATION. THESE WINDS WERE CONFIRMED BY THE OBSERVER ON THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BETA TO INTENSIFY STEADILY UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. IN FACT...THE RELIABLE GFDL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 100 KNOTS AT LANDFALL AND SHIPS TO 90 KNOTS. BETA HAS CONTINUED CREEPING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 2 KNOTS. DESPITE THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT THAT BETA WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN OR OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THIS HIGH HAS BEEN A VERY PERSISTENT FEATURE AND HAS STEERED OTHER CYCLONES TOWARD FLORIDA THIS YEAR...BUT IN THIS CASE IT WILL STEER THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL NOT SAVE NICARAGUA AND OTHER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE CYCLONE. THE HIGH SHOULD FORCE BETA WESTWARD TOWARD THE NICARAGUAN EAST COAST AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL. ONLY THE CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD TOWARD CUBA AND THE UK TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOST LIKELY THESE TWO MODELS WILL CHANGE THEIR TUNE IN THE NEXT RUN. WE SHALL SEE. IF BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST VERIFY...BETA WILL LIKELY BE A VERY SERIOUS HURRICANE PRIMARILY FOR NICARAGUA PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE FROM BOTH WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. FORECASTER AVILA ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 12.1N 81.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 12.5N 81.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 13.0N 81.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 13.5N 82.5W 85 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 13.5N 83.5W 95 KT 72HR VT 31/0000Z 13.5N 85.0W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/0000Z 13.5N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 02/0000Z 13.5N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 280244 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 13.0N 81.8W 99 X X X 99 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 1 8 9 13.5N 82.5W 33 1 X X 34 MGPB 157N 886W X X 1 9 10 13.5N 83.5W 21 3 2 1 27 MHNJ 165N 859W X 2 8 8 18 MWCG 193N 814W X X 1 6 7 MNPC 141N 834W 18 7 1 2 28 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 3 3 MNBL 120N 839W 10 4 3 4 21 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 3 3 SKSP 126N 817W 99 X X X 99 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 5 5 MRLM 100N 831W X 1 4 6 11 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 280318 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT JUEVES 27 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...BETA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE...PERO SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA AL OESTE HACIA AMERICA CENTRAL... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS DE SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA COSTA CARIBENA DE NICARAGUA DESDE LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA AL NORTE A CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SERA PROBABLEMENTE REQUERIDO PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DE NICARAGUA ESTA NOCHE O EL VIERNES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS RAPIDAMENTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE...GENEALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.4 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE LA ISLA DE SAN ANDRES Y COMO A 160 MILLAS...255 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A 2 MPH. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS CON UN GIRO LUEGO AL NOROESTE Y OESTE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KILOMETROS POR HORAS...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. BETA PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN DURANTE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 994 MB...29.41 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN INUNDACIONES PRODUCIDAS POR LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS EN SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA AL PASAR DE CERCA EL CENTRO DE BETA. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE PANAMA...COSTA RICA Y NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...12.1 NORTE... 81.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE A 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...994 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTNT80 EGRR 280517 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM BETA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 81.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.10.2005 11.9N 81.1W MODERATE 12UTC 28.10.2005 12.2N 81.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.10.2005 13.0N 81.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.10.2005 13.5N 82.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.10.2005 13.9N 82.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.10.2005 14.7N 83.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.10.2005 15.3N 84.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.10.2005 16.2N 85.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.11.2005 16.5N 85.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.11.2005 18.1N 87.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.11.2005 17.7N 87.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.11.2005 17.2N 86.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 280517 ** WTNT31 KNHC 280546 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 ...BETA WOBBLING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SAN ANDRES... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM... EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 4 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A POSSIBLE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES ...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...12.2 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 280557 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 5A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT VIERNES 28 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...BETA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE CERCA DE SAN ANDRES... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS DE SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA COSTA CARIBENA DE NICARAGUA DESDE LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA AL NORTE A CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. AVISOS DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SERAN REQUERIDO PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DE NICARAGUA ESTA MANANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA FUE RELOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.2 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS...70 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE LA ISLA DE SAN ANDRES Y COMO A 175 MILLAS...285 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE O NORTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON UN POSIBLE GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE MAS TARDE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KILOMETROS POR HORAS...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y BETA PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 994 MB...29.41 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS EN SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE BETA PASA CERCA DEL AREA. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE HINDURAS... NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...12.2 NORTE... 81.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...994 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA