** WTIO31 PGTW 272100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151ZOCT2005// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 81.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 81.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 15.1N 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.6N 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.0N 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.2N 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 81.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271645Z AMSU PASS INDICATES STRONG CONVECTION DECOUPLED TO THE WEST OF A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 270151ZOCT2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 270130).// ** WTIO31 PGTW 271900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151ZOCT2005// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 81.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 81.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 15.1N 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.6N 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.0N 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.2N 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 81.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271645Z AMSU PASS INDICATES STRONG CONVECTION DECOUPLED TO THE WEST OF A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 270151ZOCT2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 270130).// ** WTIO31 PGTW 271900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151ZOCT2005// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 81.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 81.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 15.1N 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.6N 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.0N 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.2N 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 81.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271645Z AMSU PASS INDICATES STRONG CONVECTION DECOUPLED TO THE WEST OF A WELL ** WTIO31 PGTW 271900 RRB *** ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 270151ZOCT2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 270130).// ** WTIO31 PGTW 272000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151ZOCT2005// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 81.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 81.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 15.1N 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.6N 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.0N 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.2N 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 81.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271645Z AMSU PASS INDICATES STRONG CONVECTION DECOUPLED TO THE WEST OF A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 270151ZOCT2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 270130).// ** WTIO31 PGTW 272000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151ZOCT2005// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 81.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 81.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 15.1N 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.6N 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.0N 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.2N 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 81.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271645Z AMSU PASS INDICATES STRONG CONVECTION DECOUPLED TO THE WEST OF A WELL ** WTIO31 PGTW 272000 RRB *** ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 270151ZOCT2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 270130).// ** WTNT71 KNHC 272031 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 12.6N 81.6W 99 X X X 99 MHNJ 165N 859W X X 5 9 14 13.0N 82.0W 49 X X 1 50 MNPC 141N 834W 14 9 2 2 27 13.3N 82.5W 36 X 1 X 37 MNBL 120N 839W 13 4 2 3 22 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 2 2 SKSP 126N 817W 99 X X X 99 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 6 6 MRLM 100N 831W 1 2 2 5 10 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 4 4 MPCO 093N 799W X X X 2 2 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 6 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 272033 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 ...BETA DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...11.7 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 272034 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 2100Z THU OCT 27 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 81.4W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 81.4W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 81.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.1N 81.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.6N 81.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.0N 82.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.3N 82.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.5N 83.5W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 13.5N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 13.0N 87.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 81.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 272040 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 BETA REMAINS A SMALL AND WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN SEEN THIS MORNING HAS BECOME MORE OF A CURVED BAND PATTERN...WITH INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING TOPS OF -75C TO -80C. AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1547Z SHOWED A BANDING EYE UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT FROM SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/3. BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR...THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE NORTHWARD AND ALLOW A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE BETA TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO... WITH THE GFS AND GFDL CALLING FOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN...AND THE UKMET AND NOGAPS CALLING FOR A MORE GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE MODELS AND IS JUST EAST AND NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TWO MODELS WHICH BRING BETA NORTHWARD TOWARD CUBA AND FLORIDA...LBAR AND THE CANADIAN...HAVE SHOWN A NORTHWARD BIAS IN PREVIOUS SIMILAR SITUATIONS. THEREFORE...WHILE NOT BEING RULED OUT AS POSSIBILITIES THEY ARE BEING GIVEN LITTLE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION... WITH THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING A 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OR GREATER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS...MAKING BETA A HURRICANE IN JUST OVER 12 HR AND A 75 KT SYSTEM IN 24 HR. ONE POSSIBLE RESTRAINING FACTOR IS THAT THE WARM WATER OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THE SLOW MOTION OF BETA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME UPWELLING OF COLD WATER. HOWEVER...THE EFFECTS OF THIS MAY NOT BE FELT FOR 24 HR OR MORE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT RATE AFTER 24 HR BASED ON THIS POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE ANY SURPRISE IF BETA GOT STRONGER AND BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER LANDFALL...BETA SHOULD WEAKEN..ESPECIALLY WHEN IT REACHES THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. MOST OF THE RAINFALL CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BETA IS OFFSHORE. ONCE THE STORM COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING THE RAINS ONSHORE...FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL BECOME SERIOUS THREATS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 11.7N 81.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 12.1N 81.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 12.6N 81.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 13.0N 82.0W 85 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 13.3N 82.5W 90 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 13.5N 83.5W 95 KT...NEAR COAST 96HR VT 31/1800Z 13.5N 85.0W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 01/1800Z 13.0N 87.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 272044 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT JUEVES 27 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...BETA LENTAMENTE MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE...SE ESPERA QUE SE CONVIERTA UN HURACAN EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS DE SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA COSTA CARIBENA DE NICARAGUA DESDE LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA AL NORTE A CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SERA PROBABLEMENTE REQUERIDO PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DE NICARAGUA ESTA NOCHE O EL VIERNES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS RAPIDAMENTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE...GENEALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.4 OESTE O COMO A 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE LA ISLA DE SAN ANDRES Y COMO A 165 MILLAS...265 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A 3 MPH. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO PODRIA TRAER EL CENTRO DE BETA CERCA DE SAN ANDRES DURANTE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORAS...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS....Y BETA PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN LAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O DURANTE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MB...29.44 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN INUNDACIONES PRODUCIDAS POR LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS EN SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA AL PASAR DE CERCA EL CENTRO DE BETA. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE PANAMA...COSTA RICA Y NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...11.7 NORTE... 81.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE A 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTNT31 KNHC 272341 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 ...BETA CREEPING NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...85 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...11.9 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$