** WTSR20 WSSS 270600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT71 KNHC 271433 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 12.4N 81.4W 99 X X X 99 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 5 5 12.9N 81.7W 49 X X X 49 MHNJ 165N 859W X X 3 10 13 13.3N 82.1W 35 1 X X 36 MNPC 141N 834W 10 12 2 2 26 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 2 2 MNBL 120N 839W 9 6 3 3 21 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 4 4 SKSP 126N 817W 61 X X X 61 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 8 8 MRLM 100N 831W 1 1 3 5 10 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 MPCO 093N 799W X X 1 1 2 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 271434 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM BETA STRENGTHENING AND RE-LOCATED EASTWARD...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...11.5 N... 81.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 271434 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 1500Z THU OCT 27 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 81.3W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 81.3W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 81.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 11.9N 81.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.4N 81.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.9N 81.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.3N 82.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 13.5N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 13.0N 86.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 81.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 271447 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BETA AS A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH SOME OUTER BANDING IN BOTH THE EAST AND WEST QUADRANTS...WITH INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATING CLOUD TOPS TO -80C. A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWS AN SMALL EYEWALL FORMING UNDER THE CDO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CENTER OF BETA IS SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 350/2. BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT AFTER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR...THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE NORTHWARD AND ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE BETA TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION. ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCEPT THE CANADIAN...WHICH HAS HAD A NORTHWARD BIAS IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS...FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK NOW CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IN 72 TO 96 HR. WITH THE SMALL EYEWALL AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE... BETA APPEARS SET UP FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. INDEED...THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 56 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OR GREATER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT INCREASE QUITE THAT MUCH...BUT DOES SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 72 HR SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE GFDL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE REVISED SIGNIFICANTLY UPWARD IN THE NEXT ADVISORY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. ONE POSSIBLE RESTRAINING FACTOR IS THAT THE WARM WATER OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THE SLOW MOTION OF BETA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME UPWELLING OF COLD WATER. HOWEVER...THE EFFECTS OF THIS MAY NOT BE FELT FOR 24 HR OR MORE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 11.5N 81.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 11.9N 81.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 12.4N 81.4W 65 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 12.9N 81.7W 75 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 13.3N 82.1W 80 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 13.5N 83.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 31/1200Z 13.5N 84.5W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 01/1200Z 13.0N 86.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 271450 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 27-10-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC (.) LATEST DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR OBSERVATIONS AT CHENNAI INDICATE THAT MORNING'S DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND LAY CENTERED AT 1730 HRS. IST OF 27TH OCTOBER, 2005 NEAR LAT.13.5 DEG N/LONG.81.5 DEG E ABOUT 150 KM EASTNORTHEAST OF CHENNAI. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH-NORTH TAMILNADU COAST BETWEEN CHENNAI AND ONGOLE BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW EARLY MORNING. INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL, NORTH TAMIL NADU, RAYALSEEMA AND COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY, AND SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA. STATE OF SEA WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA (.) ** WTCA41 TJSJ 271523 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT JUEVES 27 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA FORTALECIENDOSE Y HA SIDO RE LOCALIZADO HACIA EL ESTE...NUEVAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISO HAN SIDO EMITIDOS... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE NICARAGUA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS DE SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE NICARAGUA HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODA LA COSTA CARIBENA DE NICARAGUA DESDE LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA AL NORTE A CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA COSTA DEL CARIBE DE NICARAGUA DESDE LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA AL NORTE HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...E ISLAS ADYACENTES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS INMEDIATAMENTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE...GENEALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.3 OESTE O COMO A 75 MILLAS...120 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE LA ISLA DE SAN ANDRES Y COMO A 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO PODRIA TRAER EL CENTRO DE BETA CERCA DE SAN ANDRES DURANTE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORAS...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS....Y BETA PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN LAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O DURANTE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN INUNDACIONES PRODUCIDAS POR LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS EN SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA AL PASAR DE CERCA EL CENTRO DE BETA. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE PANAMA...COSTA RICA Y NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...11.5 NORTE... 81.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE LENTAMENTE. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTNT31 KNHC 271740 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM BETA STRENGTHENING AND RE-LOCATED EASTWARD...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMIAN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 260 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...11.6 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 271753 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 ...CORRECT PRESSURE IN REPEAT SECTION... ...TROPICAL STORM BETA STRENGTHENING AND RE-LOCATED EASTWARD...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMIAN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 260 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...11.6 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 271757 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM BETA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 81.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.10.2005 11.3N 81.8W MODERATE 00UTC 28.10.2005 11.9N 81.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.10.2005 12.7N 81.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.10.2005 12.9N 81.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.10.2005 13.8N 81.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.10.2005 13.8N 81.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.10.2005 14.4N 81.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.10.2005 15.3N 81.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.10.2005 16.8N 83.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.6N 38.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.10.2005 9.6N 38.3W WEAK 00UTC 28.10.2005 10.6N 40.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.10.2005 10.2N 44.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.10.2005 11.3N 45.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.10.2005 11.3N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 271757