** WTCA41 TJSJ 270609 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTISEIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 1A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT JUEVES 27 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... ...SE ESPERAN LLUVIAS TORRENCIALES SOBRE SECTORES DE AMERICA CENTRAL... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS COSTAS DEL CARIBE DE NICARAGUA DESDE LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS...Y LAS ISLAS ADYACENTES. EL GOBIERNO DE COLOMBIA EMITIO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTISEIS SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.7 OESTE O COMO A 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE LA ISLA DE SAN ANDRES Y COMO A 150 MILLAS...245 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORAS...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL TARDE HOY. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCAN CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE PANAMA...COSTA RICA Y NICARAGUA CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 20 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...11.3 NORTE... 81.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT21 KNHC 270850 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 0900Z THU OCT 27 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 81.8W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 81.8W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 81.7W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 11.8N 82.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.5N 82.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.8N 83.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.0N 83.6W...ON COAST OF NICARAGUA MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.0N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 81.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 270855 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 ...RECORD 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF SEASON FORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES... 125 KM... SOUTH OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 140 MILES... 230 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA... COSTA RICA... AND NICARAGUA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...11.4 N... 81.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 270856 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 12.5N 82.6W 54 X X X 54 MGPB 157N 886W X X 2 9 11 12.8N 83.0W 40 X X 1 41 MHNJ 165N 859W X 2 8 7 17 13.0N 83.6W 30 1 X 1 32 MNPC 141N 834W 18 6 1 2 27 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 3 3 MNBL 120N 839W 26 1 1 1 29 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 SKSP 126N 817W 55 X X X 55 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 5 5 MRLM 100N 831W 3 2 2 6 13 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 1 8 9 MPCO 093N 799W X X 1 2 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 270845 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 27-10-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0900 UTC (.) YESTERDAY'S DEPREESION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL CONCENTRATED INTO A DEEP DEEP DEPRESSION AT 261800 UTC AND MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND LATEST DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR OBSERVATIONS AT CHENNAI INDICATE THE DEEP DEPRESSION LAY CENTERED AT 270600 UTC NEAR LAT 13.0 DEG N / LONG 81.5 DEG E. ABOUT 150 KM EAST OF CHENNAI.THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH-NORTH TAMILNADU COAST BETWEEN CHENNAI AND ONGOLE BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW EARLY MORNING. INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL, NORTH TAMIL NADU AND COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY, RAYALSEEMA AND SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA. STATE OF SEA WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA (.) ** WTNT41 KNHC 270900 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 AS OFTEN OCCURS AS A DEPRESSION EVOLVES INTO A TROPICAL STORM... THE OUTER BANDS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE DISSIPATED WHILE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 35 KT...AND THEY ARE ONLY THAT LOW DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO CORRESPOND TO AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM...BUT THE WINDS HAVE PROBABLY NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CLOUD SIGNATURE. THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS... MAKING BETA THE RECORD-SETTING 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON. THE SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 5 KT IS BEING PROVIDED BY WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... IN BETWEEN A LARGE AND DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED A DISTANT 2000 N MI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ENOUGH RIDGING TO DEVELOP IN PLACE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO EVENTUALLY TURN BETA WESTWARD INTO NICARAGUA...BUT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR. OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND NONE OF THEM BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ALONG THE SAME PATH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SLOWED DOWN TO NUDGE TOWARD THE GUIDANCE. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING... WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 29 CELSIUS AND VERY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETA COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS IF IT HAS NOT YET MADE LANDFALL... AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON SHIPS INDICATES NEARLY A 50/50 SHOT AT 25 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE GFDL FORECASTS EVEN MORE INTENSIFICATION...TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 HOURS. SINCE THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS BETA OVER WATER LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND GIVEN THE VERY BULLISH GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND ANTICIPATES A HURRICANE BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL ON THE NICARAGUAN COAST. FURTHER... SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN 36 HOURS IN THE AREAS ALREADY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. HOWEVER...WE HAVE NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO CONTACT NICARAGUA REGARDING THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 11.4N 81.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 11.8N 82.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 12.5N 82.6W 55 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 12.8N 83.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 13.0N 83.6W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 30/0600Z 13.0N 85.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 270908 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT JUEVES 27 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...LA TORMENTA TROPICAL NUMERO 23 DE LA TEMPORADA SE FORMA EN EL SUROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... ...SE ESPERAN LLUVIAS MUY FUERTES EN SECTORES DE AMERICA CENTRAL... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL GOBIERNO DE COLOMBIA EMITIO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN ADICION A UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL QUE YA ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS DE SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS COSTAS DEL CARIBE DE NICARAGUA DESDE LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS...Y LAS ISLAS ADYACENTES. CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS DENTRO DEL AREA DE AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.8 OESTE O COMO A 75 MILLAS...125 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE LA ISLA DE SAN ANDRES Y COMO A 140 MILLAS...235 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORAS...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE PANAMA...COSTA RICA Y NICARAGUA CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...11.4 NORTE... 81.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPN21 PHNC 271100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 271051Z OCT 05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 116.7W TO 12.9N 121.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 270600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 117.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 116.7W, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN THE AERIAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CON- VECTION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 281051Z.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 271138 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 ...BETA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM... SOUTH OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH... 6 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA... COSTA RICA... AND NICARAGUA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...11.5 N... 81.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 271151 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 2A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT JUEVES 27 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...BETA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... ...SE ESPERAN LLUVIAS MUY FUERTES EN SECTORES DE AMERICA CENTRAL... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS COSTAS DEL CARIBE DE NICARAGUA DESDE LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS...Y LAS ISLAS ADYACENTES. CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS DENTRO DEL AREA DE AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.8 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS...115 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE LA ISLA DE SAN ANDRES Y COMO A 135 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO GENERALMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORAS...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BETA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE PANAMA...COSTA RICA Y NICARAGUA CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...11.5 NORTE... 81.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO