** WTSR20 WSSS 261800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO21 PGTW 270130 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/270151ZOCT2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 12.5N 80.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 262330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 80.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 83.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 80.9E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA. A 262116Z AMSU-B SATELLITE PASS REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 280130Z.// ** WTIO21 PGTW 270130 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/270151ZOCT2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 12.5N 80.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 262330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 80.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 83.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 80.9E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA. A 262116Z AMSU-B SATELLITE PASS REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 280130Z.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 270240 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS FOR CENTRAL AMERICA... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA ON THURSDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 155 KM...SOUTH OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 170 MILES... 270 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER NICARAGUA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...11.1 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 270244 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 0300Z THU OCT 27 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 81.5W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 81.5W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 81.4W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 11.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.0N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.0N 85.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 81.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 270245 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI FROM THE GIVEN POSITION. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED AT 315/03. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE TRAPPED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONLY A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS ANTICIPATED. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NEVER GET OUT THAT AREA BEFORE DISSIPATION INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS VERY REALISTIC SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOTION OVER WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL WHICH MAKES THE DEPRESSION A 94-KNOT HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. WE WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL IN CONTACTING THE COLOMBIAN WEATHER SERVICE TO COORDINATE THE WARNINGS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 11.1N 81.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 11.5N 82.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 12.5N 82.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 13.0N 83.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 13.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 30/0000Z 13.0N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 270245 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 12.5N 82.5W 47 X X X 47 MHNJ 165N 859W X 1 8 8 17 13.0N 83.0W 35 X X 1 36 MNPC 141N 834W 15 8 2 1 26 13.0N 84.0W 23 2 1 2 28 MNBL 120N 839W 27 X 1 1 29 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 3 3 SKSP 126N 817W 47 X X X 47 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 MRLM 100N 831W 7 1 1 4 13 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 5 5 MPCO 093N 799W X X X 2 2 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 1 9 10 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 MGPB 157N 886W X X 2 10 12 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 270251 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTISEIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MIERCOLES 26 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...SE FORMA DEPRESION TROPICAL EN EL SUROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... ...LLUVIA TORRENCIAL PARA AMERICA CENTRAL... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL GOBIERNO DE NICARAGUA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS COSTAS DEL CARIBE DE NICARAGUA DESDE EL BORDE CON COSTA RICA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DEL BORDE ENTRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS Y LAS ISLAS ADYACENTES. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PROBABLEMENTE SE ESPARCIRAN SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SAN ANDRES Y PROVINCIA EL JUEVES. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTISEIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.5 OESTE O COMO A 100 MILLAS...155 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE LA ISLA DE SAN ANDRES Y COMO A 170 MILLAS...270 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO AL NOROESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL ANTES DE MOVERSE SOBRE TIERRA SOBRE NICARAGUA EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCAN CANTIDADES LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE PANAMA...COSTA RICA Y NICARAGUA CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 20 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...11.1 NORTE... 81.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 270533 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 10.4N 80.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.10.2005 10.4N 80.5W WEAK 12UTC 27.10.2005 11.2N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2005 12.2N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2005 12.7N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.10.2005 12.7N 80.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.10.2005 13.0N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.10.2005 13.3N 80.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.10.2005 14.1N 80.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.10.2005 15.1N 81.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.10.2005 15.2N 82.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.11.2005 15.2N 84.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.11.2005 16.6N 85.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.11.2005 17.9N 84.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION: 8.7N 37.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.10.2005 8.7N 37.6W WEAK 12UTC 27.10.2005 9.7N 38.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2005 9.9N 38.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.10.2005 10.3N 41.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 270533 ** WTNT31 KNHC 270555 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 ...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER... AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 140 KM... SOUTH OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA... COSTA RICA... AND NICARAGUA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...11.3 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$