** WTSR20 WSSS 250600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT44 KNHC 251431 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005 MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WILMA IS WEAKENING AND BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERSTICS. AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 1117Z SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS NORTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION...WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. WILMA SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR...WHICH SHOULD FINISH OFF THE REMAINING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND THE REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS LIKE TO LOSE WILMA IN THE WARM FRONT OF A BAROCLINIC LOW CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN LESS THAN 72 HR. GIVE THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY LAST A BIT LONGER THAN THAT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY RAPID 045/046. ASSUMING WILMA IS NOT ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC LOW...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL TURN THE CYCLONE EASTWARD OVER THE TOP OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE DISSIPATION. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 38.5N 66.0W 90 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 42.3N 60.0W 75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 26/1200Z 44.9N 54.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 27/0000Z 46.0N 47.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 27/1200Z 46.0N 40.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 28/1200Z 46.0N 30.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 29/1200Z 50.0N 20.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 251431 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 1500Z TUE OCT 25 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 66.0W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 46 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT.......125NE 150SE 100SW 75NW. 34 KT.......200NE 300SE 375SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 350SE 500SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 66.0W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 67.9W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 42.3N 60.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 75SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT...125NE 150SE 100SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 300SE 375SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 44.9N 54.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 250SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 46.0N 47.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 250SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 46.0N 40.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...225NE 250SE 250SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 46.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...225NE 250SE 250SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 50.0N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 66.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 251432 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005 ...WILMA WEAKENING AND STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES... 920 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 440 MILES... 705 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH...85 KM/HR. AN TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF WILMA WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND WILMA WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 430 MILES...695 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. ALTHOUGH WILMA WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE U.S. EAST COAST...HIGH SURF IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...38.5 N... 66.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 251433 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 44.9N 54.3W 21 3 X X 24 PTX BASQUES NFLD 2 X X X 2 46.0N 47.8W X 13 2 X 15 BURGEO NFLD 6 2 X X 8 46.0N 40.9W X 1 8 3 12 ILE ST PIERRE 16 2 X X 18 SABLE ISLAND NS 19 X X X 19 CAPE RACE NFLD 11 9 X X 20 SYDNEY NS 2 1 X X 3 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 14 1 1 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 251448 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 42 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MARTES 25 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA DEBILITANDOSE Y COMIENZA A PERDER LAS CARACTERISTICAS DE CICLON TROPICAL... A LAS 11 AM...1500Z ...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 38.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.0 OESTE O COMO A 570 MILLAS... 920 KM ... AL ESTE NORESTE DE CABO HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA Y ALREDEDOR DE 440 MILLAS... 440 MILLAS... 705 KM ...AL SUR SUROESTE DE HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 53 MPH ...85 KM/HR... Y SE ESPERA QUE GIRE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE Y DISMINUYA SU VELOCIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA DEBERA MANTENER AL CENTRO DE WILMA A BASTANTE DISTANCIA MAR AFUERA DE NORESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 105 MPH ...165 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y WILMA DEBERA PERDER LAS CARACTERISTICAS DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS... 165 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 430 MILLAS...695 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 970 MB..28.64 PULGADAS. AUNQUE NO SE ESPERA QUE WILMA AFECTE DIRECTAMENTE LA COSTA ESTE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS...ACTUALMENTE RESACAS ALTAS ESTAN OCURRIENDO A LO LARGO DE LOS ESTADOS DEL MEDIO ATLANTICO. POR FAVOR CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...38.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 53 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 970 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 251714 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.10.2005 HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 36.2N 68.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.10.2005 36.2N 68.0W STRONG 00UTC 26.10.2005 42.3N 63.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.10.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 9.7N 79.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.10.2005 9.7N 79.8W WEAK 12UTC 26.10.2005 9.7N 79.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.10.2005 10.5N 80.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.10.2005 11.3N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2005 12.7N 80.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2005 13.2N 80.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.10.2005 13.7N 80.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.10.2005 14.2N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.10.2005 14.5N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.10.2005 14.5N 80.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.10.2005 14.7N 80.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.10.2005 15.3N 81.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 251714