** WTNT24 KNHC 250847 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0900Z TUE OCT 25 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 70.0W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 46 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 90SE 60SW 20NW. 50 KT.......125NE 150SE 100SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 275SE 375SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 350SE 300SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 70.0W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.9N 64.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 75SE 45SW 0NW. 50 KT...125NE 150SE 100SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 275SE 375SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 43.0N 57.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 250SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 45.0N 51.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 250SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 46.0N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...225NE 250SE 250SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 46.0N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...225NE 250SE 250SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 47.0N 23.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 55.0N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 70.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 250847 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF WILMA IS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE...WITH THE EYE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND THE CONVECTION BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC. THE RECONNAISSANCE FIX NEAR 00Z WAS ABOUT 40 MILES TO THE WEST OF THE SATELLITE EYE AND AN SSMI PASS AT 0136Z ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE DECOUPLING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND WILMA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER ROUGHLY 20C WATERS IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THE TRACK FORECAST OF WILMA AND ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS IS NOT STRAIGHTFORWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...WILMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRISKLY NORTHEASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED COULD BE SLOWER THAN SHOWN BELOW SHOULD THE VORTEX SHEAR OUT MORE RAPIDLY THAN ANTICIPATED. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS VORTEX TRACKERS ARE CONFUSING WILMA WITH THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE...WHICH CONTAMINATES THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE THE GFDL ROTATES WILMA CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NEW LOW INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 24-36 HOURS. THE GFS MAINTAINS WILMA AS A SEPARATE ENTITY TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE SOLUTION PREFERRED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SHOULD WILMA COMPLETELY DECOUPLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF WILMA IS LIKELY TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND NOT SURVIVE MORE THAN 36-48 HOURS OR SO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 34.8N 70.0W 100 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 38.9N 64.2W 85 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 43.0N 57.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 26/1800Z 45.0N 51.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 27/0600Z 46.0N 45.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 28/0600Z 46.0N 35.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 29/0600Z 47.0N 23.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/0600Z 55.0N 20.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 250848 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005 ...WILMA BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES... 505 KM... EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH ...85 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KEEPING WILMA WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 430 MILES...695 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. ALTHOUGH WILMA WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE U.S. EAST COAST...HIGH SURF IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 70.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 250848 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 43.0N 57.0W 18 6 1 X 25 EDDY POINT NS 4 1 X X 5 45.0N 51.0W X 14 3 X 17 PTX BASQUES NFLD 1 3 1 X 5 46.0N 45.0W X 1 9 3 13 BURGEO NFLD 1 6 1 1 9 HALIFAX NS 2 X X X 2 ILE ST PIERRE 2 11 1 X 14 SABLE ISLAND NS 16 2 X 1 19 CAPE RACE NFLD X 14 2 X 16 SYDNEY NS 3 3 X X 6 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 4 8 2 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 250903 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 41 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MARTES 25 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA COMIENZA A DEBILITARSE MIENTRAS SE MUEVE RAPIDAMENTE AL NORESTE... A LAS 5 AM...0900Z ...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 70.0 OESTE O COMO A 310 MILLAS...AL ESTE DE CABO HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 53 MPH ...85 KM/HR... Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTA TRACEDTORIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...MANTENIENDO A WILMA A BASTANTE DISTANCIA MAR AFUERA DE NORESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 115 MPH ...185 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y WILMA DEBERA PERDER LAS CARACTERISTICAS DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS... 165 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 430 MILLAS...695 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 965 MB..28.50 PULGADAS. AUNQUE NO SE ESPERA QUE WILMA AFEDTE DIREDTAMENTE LA COSTA ESTE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS...ACTUALMENTE ALTAS RESACAS ESTAN OCURRIENDO A LO LARGO DE LOS ESTADOS DEL MEDIO ATLANTICO. POR FAVOR CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...34.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 70.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 53 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 965 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$