** WTSR20 WSSS 241800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA44 TJSJ 250020 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 39A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT LUNES 24 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA SE INTENSIFICA UN POCO A MEDIDA QUE EL HURACAN SE MUEVE RAPIDAMENTE AL NORESTE ALEJANDOSE DE FLORIDA Y LAS BAHAMAS... A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...TODOS LOS AVISOS DE HURACAN PARA LAS BAHAMAS HAN SIDO DESCONTINUADO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM...0000Z ...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.0 OESTE O COMO A 350 MILLAS...AL SUR DE CABO HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 38 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRACECTORIA PRONOSTICADA SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PASE UNAS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SURESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE EL MARTES EN LA MANANA...Y POSIBLEMENTE LLEGUE A LAS AREAS MARITIMAS DE CANADA TARDE EL MARTES EN LA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 125 MPHCON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...PERO WILMA PUEDE MANTENERSE COMO HURACAN DURANTE LA MAYOR PARTE DEL DIA MARTES. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MEDIDA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 955 MILIBARAS...28.20 PULGADAS. LA MAREJADA CICLONICA EN GENERAL DEBERA ESTAR DISMINUYENDO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA...LOS CAYOS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA. POR FAVOR CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR LAS OFICINAS LOCALES DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM CDT...30.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 38 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...125 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 955 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 250241 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 WILMA'S EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... AND THE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED FROM 60 NMI DOWN TO 40 NMI. THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -75 TO -80C NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT 24/2001Z... AN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTED 136-KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT. SINCE THAT TIME... BOTH THE EYE AND EYEWALL CONVECTION HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY... AND USING AN 80 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR YIELDS ABOUT 109 KT SURFACE WINDS. IN ADDITION... DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.5/77KT. ADDING THE FORWARD SPEED OF WILMA TO THE T-NUMBERS SUPPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 110 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/41. WILMA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG DIGGING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS... THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF WILMA IS EXPECTED TO FORCE THE CYCLONE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... AFTER WHICH A STEADY EASTWARD MOTION OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL. WILMA HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 18 HOURS OR SO OVER 26C AND WARMER SSTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT 71 KT BY 24 HOURS... THE RAPID MOTION AND LARGE SIZE OF THE WILMA'S CIRCULATION SHOULD OFFSET THESE OTHERWISE VERY ADVERSE CONDITIONS... AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REMAIN A HURRICANE UNTIL MUCH COOLER WATER IS REACHED BY OR SHORTLY AFTER THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WILMA WILL LIKELY LOSE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION BY 36 HOURS... THE LARGE CIRCULATION WILL NOT SPIN DOWN VERY QUICKLY... WHICH MEANS THAT WILMA SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL WINTER-TYPE STORM SYSTEM AT 48-120 HR OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 31.6N 74.3W 110 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 36.1N 68.9W 95 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 41.2N 61.3W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 26/1200Z 44.0N 56.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 27/0000Z 46.1N 51.2W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 28/0000Z 47.0N 44.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 29/0000Z 47.5N 30.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/0000Z 51.5N 23.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 250242 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0300Z TUE OCT 25 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 74.3W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 41 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 90SE 75SW 40NW. 50 KT.......125NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 225SE 200SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 350SE 300SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 74.3W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 76.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.1N 68.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 40NW. 50 KT...125NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 200SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 41.2N 61.3W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 20NW. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...225NE 250SE 200SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 44.0N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 46.1N 51.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 47.0N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 47.5N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 51.5N 23.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 74.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 250242 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 41.2N 61.3W 27 8 X X 35 EDDY POINT NS 1 7 2 X 10 44.0N 56.0W X 19 3 X 22 PTX BASQUES NFLD X 3 4 X 7 46.1N 51.2W X 2 12 2 16 BURGEO NFLD X 4 6 1 11 HALIFAX NS 1 4 1 X 6 ILE ST PIERRE X 8 7 1 16 SABLE ISLAND NS 4 18 X X 22 CAPE RACE NFLD X 4 12 1 17 SYDNEY NS X 8 2 1 11 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 7 6 13 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 250242 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 ...WILMA CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD PARALLEL TO THE U.S. EAST COAST... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES... 415 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 47 MPH...76 KM/HR... AND A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PASS A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TUESDAY MORNING... AND POSSIBLY REACH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT WILMA WILL LIKELY REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES. ALTHOUGH WILMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST... INCREASING WINDS BETWEEN THE HURRICANE A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE- AND STORM FORCE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION... LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND POSSIBLE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 74.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 47 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 250253 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 40 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT LUNES 24 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA CONTINUA ACELERANDO RAPIDAMENTE AL NORESTE PARALELO A LA COSTA ESTE DE ESTADOS UNIDOS... A LAS 11 PM...0300Z ...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 74.3 OESTE O COMO A 260 MILLAS...AL SUR SURESTE DE CABO HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 47 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRACECTORIA PRONOSTICADA SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PASE UNAS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SURESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE EL MARTES EN LA MANANA...Y POSIBLEMENTE LLEGUE A LAS AREAS MARITIMAS DE CANADA TARDE EL MARTES EN LA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 125 MPHCON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...PERO WILMA PUEDE MANTENERSE COMO HURACAN DURANTE LA MAYOR PARTE DEL DIA MARTES. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 959 MB..28.32 PULGADAS. AUNQUE NO SE ESPERA QUE WILMA AFECTE DIRECTAMENTE LA COSTA ESTE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS...LOS VIENTOS AUMENTARAN ENTRE UNA FUERTE ALTA PRESION SOBRE EL NORESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS Y EL HURACAN Y SE ESPERAN QUE ALCANZEN VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE Y EL MARTES. EN ADICION...GRANDES MAREJADAS Y POSIBLES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS AFECTARAN PORCIONES DE LOS ESTADOS DEL MEDIO ATLANTICO Y LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE NEW ENGLAND EL MARTES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM CDT...31.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 74.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 47 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...125 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 959 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT84 KNHC 250343 *** TCVAT4 WILMA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 .HURRICANE WILMA ATTN...WFO... ... ** WTNT84 KNHC 250350 *** TCVAT4 WILMA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 .HURRICANE WILMA FLC011-086-099-AMZ630-650-651-670-671-250900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ FLC009-061-085-111-AMZ550-555-570-575-250900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-087-115-GMZ031-033-656-657-676-853-856-873-876- 250900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W FLAMINGO-FL 25.14N 80.93W $$ FLC035-109-127-AMZ454-474-250900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W ST-AUGUSTINE-FL 29.89N 81.27W $$ AMZ610-250900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-250900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W KEY-LARGO-FL 25.09N 80.44W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...EYW...TBW...MLB...MFL... ** WTNT80 EGRR 250504 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.10.2005 HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N 76.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.10.2005 30.2N 76.1W STRONG 12UTC 25.10.2005 37.0N 71.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.10.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 11.8N 76.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.10.2005 11.8N 76.9W WEAK 12UTC 26.10.2005 11.0N 79.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.10.2005 12.1N 80.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2005 12.0N 80.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2005 12.9N 80.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2005 13.6N 80.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.10.2005 14.7N 79.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.10.2005 14.8N 80.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.10.2005 15.0N 79.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.10.2005 15.7N 79.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.10.2005 16.4N 80.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250504