** WTSR20 WSSS 231800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KMFL 240040 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-240430- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 839 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA ACCELERATING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH. WILMA IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY... AND WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE... STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST MONDAY MORNING. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... WILMA IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WELL BEFORE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN AFFECTING THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK OF WILMA HAS REMAINED CONSTANT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...PEOPLE ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS REGARDLESS OF THE WHAT THE EVENTUAL TRACK ENDS UP BEING. SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD RUSH THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS NOW. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST SOMEWHERE IN COLLIER COUNTY. A STORM SURGE OF 13 TO 17 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF CAPE ROMANO TO CAPE SABLE INCLUDING EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE. A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 18 FEET IS EXPECTED AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF LOCAL ACCESS ROADS TO MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING STATE ROADS 92...951...953 AND 29 AND LARGE PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL U.S. HIGHWAY 41. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST...A STORM SURGE OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM JUST SOUTH OF NAPLES TO MARCO ISLAND AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN MARCO ISLAND. THESE VALUES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK WHICH CAN STILL CHANGE BY AS MUCH AS 30 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH. THEREFORE...IF YOU LIVE IN AN AREA PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO EVACUATE. A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLAMINGO AREA MID MORNING MONDAY. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...PARTICULARLY BISCAYNE BAY... A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN CANALS AND WATERWAYS. SOUTH WINDS WILL PILE SOME WATER INTO THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY CAUSING SOME FLOODING OF CAUSEWAYS AND LOW LYING BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME FROM EARLY TO MID MORNING MONDAY. OVER BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTS...STORM TIDES OF 2 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS IS EXPECTED FROM EARLY MORNING TO AROUND NOON MONDAY OVER AREAS INSIDE THE DIKE FROM LAKEPORT TO CLEWISTON...WITH 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS ELSEWHERE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE SOUTH TO LAKEPORT...AND FROM CLEWISTON THROUGH PORT MAYACA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION INCLUDING TORRY...KREAMER AND RITTA ISLANDS AND SOME ACCESS ROADS. THE LAKE LEVEL ON SATURDAY WAS 15.58 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER COLLIER COUNTY THIS EVENING...REACHING MIAMI- DADE COUNTY AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN HOURS. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER THAN 74 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY COASTS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING METRO MIAMI-DADE AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AROUND DAWN MONDAY...AND THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH METRO AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...GENERALLY A FEW HOURS. THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN MOST AREAS DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON...AND IN METRO PALM BEACH AND BROWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. MAJOR WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...WITH DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIAL...DOORS...AND WINDOWS OF BUILDINGS. SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO LIKELY. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LARGE TREES WILL LIKELY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PERSONS MUST NOT DRIVE OR WALK AROUND IN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. SEVERAL SOUTH FLORIDA DEATHS OCCURRED IN KATRINA WHEN PEOPLE DECIDED TO WALK AROUND TO WATCH TREES FALL IN STRONG WINDS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS AN 80 TO 100 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...RANGES FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST FROM NAPLES SOUTHWARD...35 TO 45 PERCENT ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF A BONITA BEACH TO CLEWISTON TO JUPITER LINE...AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRIMARILY OVER GLADES COUNTY. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH THIS EVENING...BECOMING VERY ROUGH LATER TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING AROUND NOON MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND MIDDAY AND NORTHERN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SUBSIDING OVER ALL ATLANTIC WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING. MARINERS SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS. BE SURE TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH...WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. RAIN BANDS MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES WILL BE THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF WILMA. TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. THE RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. REMEMBER THAT TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND WITH LITTLE WARNING...ESPECIALLY THOSE INDUCED FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES. PLEASE MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK PROTECTIVE ACTION IF A TORNADO IS SIGHTED OR A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ PS ** WTUS82 KEYW 240040 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-240330- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 830 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST...ABOUT 170 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST MONDAY MORNING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 958 MB...OR 28.29 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RELEASED A SCHEDULE TO TERMINATE THE EVACUATION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO HURRICANE WILMA. THE EVACUATION HAS ENDED IN THE KEYS. RESIDENTS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED AND WHO DO NOT FEEL SAFE IN THEIR HOMES...ESPECIALLY IN MOBILE HOMES...CAN GO TO A REFUGE OF LAST RESORT AS FOLLOWS...KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF SCHOOL MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MILE MARKER 48...CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL MILE MARKER 90...SHERATON KEY LARGO BEACH RESORT MILE MARKER 98 KEY LARGO...AND MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT MILE MARKER 103 KEY LARGO. EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY...THE CROWNE LA CONCHA HOTEL IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. OFFICIALS EMPHASIZE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT WILL NOT BE MANNED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS...AND THERE WILL BE NO SUPPLIES FOR EVACUEES. EVACUEES MUST BRING THEIR OWN WATER...BEDDING...AND SUPPLIES. NO PETS ARE PERMITTED AT REFUGES OF LAST RESORT. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND COURTS ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOL DAYTIME CUSTODIANS SHOULD REPORT TUESDAY. ALL CAMPUSES OF FLORIDA KEYS COMMUNITY COLLEGE ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY. THE CITY OF KEY WEST WILL ENACT A CURFEW FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A VOLUNTARY CURFEW ON ALCOHOL SALES AT LOCAL BARS. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED ACROSS PORTIONS THE LOWER KEYS...AND WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS IN THE HOUR OR SO...AND IN THE UPPER KEYS BY MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS AND DRIVING IS NO LONGER RECOMMENDED. RESIDENTS IN THE UPPER KEYS HAVE JUST A FEW HOURS LEFT FOR EVACUATION. DURING THE LAST HOUR...C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF REGISTERED A WIND GUST TO 35 KNOTS...37 KNOTS AT MOLASSES REEF LIGHT...43 KNOTS AT SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT. OVER LAND...KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECORDED 44 KNOTS AND 27 KNOTS AT MARATHON AIRPORT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE LATE EVENING...AND THEN SHIFT TO BETWEEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WILMA WILL THEN PASS JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE KEYS...AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE INDICATED ON THE GULF SIDE AND THE BAY SIDE. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR...AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK BRIDGE OVER ROUTE 1. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN OUTER RAINBANDS ARE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH HURRICANE WILMA. A VIOLENT WATERSPOUT WAS SPOTTED 5 NM WEST OF KEY WEST AT 4 PM. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOS WILL OCCUR FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SEVERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU LIVE IN A HIGHLY FLOOD-PRONE AREA TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FUTTERMAN/DEVANAS ** WTUS82 KMLB 240040 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 240400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 840 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...HURRICANE WILMA STRENGTHENING WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARD FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... WILMA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CURRENTLY...AHEAD OF WILMAS ARRIVAL...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE PENINSULA. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...A DANGEROUS AND PERSISTENT TORNADO PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN BREVARD COUNTY AT 812 PM WITH A WARNING IN EFFECT. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE...WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN BREVARD...VOLUSIA...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN...INDIAN RIVER... OKEECHOBEE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT PIERCE. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE BRINGING THEIR HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO AN END AND BE RETREATING TO THEIR DESIGNATED SAFE PLACE ACCORDING TO THEIR ACTION PLAN. IMPORTANTLY...RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN FOR TORNADO WARNINGS FOR THEIR AREA THIS EVENING AND BE READY TO TAKE COVER. IF TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...PLEASE TAKE THEM SERIOUSLY. IN THE EVENT OF A TORNADO...OR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WITH THE INNER RAINBANDS OF WILMA...THE SAFEST PLACE IS IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BLOCK HOME AWAY FROM WINDOWS. FOR THOSE LIVING IN MANUFACTURED HOMES...CHECK WITH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGERS FOR SHELTER LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL TIME THIS EVENING TO SAFELY MOVE TO SHELTERS...PROVIDING A TORNADO WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA. HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY AND ACCELERATE VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE GREATEST THREAT FROM WILMA ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELD IS VERY LARGE AND THEREFORE WILL ARRIVE WELL BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE CORE WINDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS OKEECHOBEE... OSCEOLA...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS BREVARD...ORANGE...LAKE... SEMINOLE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES STARTING BEFORE 8 AM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING OKEECHOBEE... MARTIN...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE... AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES BY MID MORNING. BECAUSE THE OF THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA...WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE RIGHT. IT IS LIKELY THAT A BAND OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 100 MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. THESE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIALS...AS WELL AS EXPOSED DOORS AND WINDOWS. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO MOBILE HOMES THAT HAPPEN TO BE IN THE PATH OF THE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WILL OCCUR FROM DOWNED TREES AND LARGE SIGNS. A FEW ROADS MAY BECOME BLOCKED DUE TO SOME LARGE DEBRIS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MAIN WIND SWATH OF THE CORE WINDS. THE LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST WIND IMPACT WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. BY THAT TIME WILMA WILL BE MOVING VERY FAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED SOUTHWARD BEHIND WILMA AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... STRONG AND LONGER-LIVED TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN THE KEYS...AND ALSO BETWEEN FORT DRUM IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO BREVARD COUNTY WEST OF PALM BAY. THE THREAT OF STRONG AND LONGER-LIVED TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY. THE GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES WILL BE IN OUTER RAINBANDS PRECEDING WILMA AND IN THE INNER RAINBANDS NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF WILMA AS IT RAPIDLY CROSSES THE PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY. LATE SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE PRODUCED KILLER TORNADOES IN THE PAST. THEREFORE...TAKE TORNADO WARNINGS SERIOUSLY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. BECAUSE WILMA WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE... WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES MAY OCCUR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS OUTER RAINBANDS FROM WILMA LIFT NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTERSECT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING MAINLY FROM ORLANDO SOUTHWARD AS THE CORE OF HURRICANE WILMA MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR... IT APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...OR IN AN AREA THAT IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...COMPLETE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY BY THIS EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA AND THE MOVEMENT OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC...HIGH IMPACT STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A STORM TIDE OF PERHAPS 3 OR 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE BEFORE AND AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MID DAY MONDAY...NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES OFFSHORE. EXTREMELY ROUGH SURF...BEACH EROSION...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES AS WILMA MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. ...MARINE IMPACTS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM FOR MARINERS DUE TO ITS RAPID APPROACH AND ACCELERATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME HAZARDOUS THIS EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS AND THEN BECOME EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ON MONDAY. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY NWS MELBOURNE BY MIDNIGHT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON WILMA LOCAL INFO. $$ DWS ** WTUS82 KTBW 240045 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-240400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 830 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...HURRICANE WILMA GRADUALLY ACCELERATING TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND CONTINUING ON TRACK FOR A MORNING LANDFALL... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITH REPORTS OF EXPLODING TRANSFORMERS AND FLYING DEBRIS IN MULBERRY. A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM CITRUS COUNTY SOUTHWARD UNTIL 1 AM. THE GREATEST THREAT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD WITH A SECOND BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. ANY TORNADOES WILL BE FAST MOVING. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK... PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...SUMTER AND LEVY COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS AND 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA. WILMA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH...AND THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WILL CONTINUE. ...WIND IMPACTS... DANGEROUS WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN LEE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD...AND BETWEEN 11 PM AND 2 AM SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS. THE LATEST TRACK WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ONSHORE IN LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS IN SQUALLS BY 3 AM. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 TO 80 MPH...IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM. BECAUSE WILMA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST HIGH CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH WHILE ACCELERATING INLAND...GUSTS TO 100 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SQUALLS. FARTHER NORTH IN THE HURRICANE AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD ARRIVE BY 4 AM...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS...50 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 75 TO 85 MPH...BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM...PERHAPS UP TO 11 AM IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY. IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND POINTS NORTH THROUGH HERNANDO COUNTY... TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND OR SOON AFTER 5 AM...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS...40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH...EXPECTED BETWEEN 7 AM AND 12 PM. IMPACTS FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY INCLUDE: POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. OTHERS WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WALLS... AND WINDOWS...AND WILL LIKELY BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE PARTIAL WALL AND ROOF FAILURE...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. MOST LANAI SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL HAVE DAMAGE...SOME WILL BE DESTROYED. UNSECURED LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND PERHAPS INJURY. MANY AREAS WILL HAVE POWER OUTAGES...HUNDREDS OF WIRES WILL FALL...TRANSFORMERS WILL POP...AND SOME POWER POLES WILL BE PULLED DOWN. ROTTING LARGE TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED GROUND. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP...AND MODERATE DAMAGE IS EXPECTED IN CITRUS ORCHARDS. UP TO ONE HALF OF NEWLY PLANTED CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED. IMPACTS FOR SARASOTA...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...AND HARDEE COUNTY INCLUDE: OLDER MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE. SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES ...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. MANY LANAI SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL BE DAMAGED. UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS. MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED. DOZENS OF PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO CITRUS GROVES AND NEWLY PLANTED LOWLAND CROPS. IMPACTS FOR THE TAMPA BAY AND LAKELAND AREAS INCLUDE: MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES. POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES MAY RECEIVE SOME WALL DAMAGE AND PARTIAL ROOF REMOVAL. A FEW HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES AND SIDING. A FEW POOL CAGES AND LANAI SCREENS WILL BE DAMAGED. UNSECURED LIGHT WEIGHT ITEMS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. SOME ELECTRICAL WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED. SOME ROTTING SMALL TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...AND ROTTEN LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. NUMEROUS SMALL TWIGS WILL SEPARATE FROM TREES. A FEW PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. ...SURGE IMPACTS... TIDES CONTINUE RUNNING AROUND A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING POINTS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. HOWEVER...AS WILMA APPROACHES...TIDES SHOULD RISE AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL...INCLUDING LOCATIONS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK. THUS...TIDAL DEPARTURES MAY RANGE UP TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...AND UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE...BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY AND EVACUATE WATER FROM MANY OF THESE AREAS. TIDES MAY RISE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WEST FACING BEACHES OF LEE COUNTY...INCLUDING BONITA BEACH...FORT MYERS BEACH...AND THE NORTH END OF SANIBEL AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PINE ISLAND. STORM TIDES COULD REACH 4 FEET OR HIGHER...WHICH MAY PRODUCE RUN UP...OVERWASH...OR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING. PLEASE NOTE THAT ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR MINOR TO MODERATE STORM SURGE FLOODING IN LEE COUNTY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HURRICANE WILMA OVERSPREAD THE AREA. RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 INCH IN LEVY COUNTY... 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN HEAVIER BANDS FROM TAMPA TO LAKELAND AND POINTS NORTH...2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES ELSEWHERE NORTH OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 6 INCHES IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE MANATEE RIVER LATE MONDAY...AND ON THE PEACE AND LITTLE MANATEE RIVERS BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 1115 PM EDT. $$ CP ** WTCA44 TJSJ 240045 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 34A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM CDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADA Y REINTENSIFICANDOSE A MEDIDA QUE ACELERA GRADUALMENTE HACIA EL NORESTE HACIA FLORIDA... ...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL IMPACTANDO EL OESTE DE CUBA Y ACERCANDOSE A LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS Y FLORIDA BAY...A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY HACIA EL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE TITUSVILLE HACIA EL SUR...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA STEINHATCHEE RIVER...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE TITUSVILLE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE CIUDAD HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PROVINCIA DE MATANZAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE...INCLUYENDO ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...Y NEW PROVIDENCE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM CDT...0000Z...DATA DE UNN AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA RESRVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA...RADARES DOPPLER DE NOAA E IMAGENES DE SATELITE INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DEL EXTENSO OJO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.4 OESTE O COMO A 170 MILLAS...275 KILOMETROS AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 225 MILLAS...365 KILOMETROS AL SUROESTE DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORESTE AUMENTANDO GRADUALMENTE SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION ESTA NOCHE Y EL LUNES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE WILMA ESTARA CERCA DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA TEMPRANO EL LUNES EN LA MANANA. SIN EMBARGO WILMA ES UN EXTENSO SISTEMA Y VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PODRIAN ALCANZAR LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA MUCHO ANTES DE LA LLEGADA DEL CENTRO. DATA DE AVIONES CAZAHURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y DE NOAA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES AHORA UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE UN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL LUNES...Y WILMA PODRIA TENER INTENSIDAD CERCA DE CATEGORIA TRES...UN HURACAN INTENSO...A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA A LA COSTA SUROESTE DE LA FLORIDA EL LUNES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS... 370 KILOMETROS. UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 85 MPH FUE INFORMADA RECIENTEMENTE EN LA HAVANA CUBA...Y UNA RAFAGA DE 55 MPH FUE INFORMADA EN DRY TORTUGAS. VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN OCURRIENDO SOBRE EL CANAL DE YUCATAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA...Y ESTOS PODRIAN LLEGAR A LOS CAYOS MAS AL SUR PARA MEDIANOCHE...Y DESPLAZARSE HACIA LOS C LA BOYA DE NOAA 42056 EN EL AYOS INTERMEDIOS Y LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA PARA LA SALIDA DEL SOL DE LA MANANA DEL LUNES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 958 MILIBARAS...28.29 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 9 A 17 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA CERCA Y AL SUR DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRE A TIERRA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 8 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EN FLORIDA BAY...ASI COMO EN EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS HASTA EL LUNES A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON TOTALES MAXIMOS AISLADOS ACERCANDOSE A LAS 50 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS...HASTA EL MARTES SE ESPERA QUE SEAN DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS... CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE ALREDEDOR DE 12 PULGADAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA CONTINUARAN AFECTANDO SECTORES DEL NORESTE DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DESDE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HACIA EL NORTE ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL LUNES. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL CENTRO Y EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE Y EL LUNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM CDT...23.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...110 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 958 MB. ESTIMADOS DE LA POSICION DEL CICLON TROPICAL SERAN EMITIDOS CADA HORA COMENZANDO A LAS 9 PM EDT. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT54 KNHC 240051 *** TCEAT4 HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM... SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA. RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE WILMA IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 240057 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-240330- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED TO REMOVE OLD INFORMATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 845 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST...ABOUT 170 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST MONDAY MORNING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 958 MB...OR 28.29 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE EVACUATION HAS ENDED IN THE KEYS. RESIDENTS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED AND WHO DO NOT FEEL SAFE IN THEIR HOMES...ESPECIALLY IN MOBILE HOMES...CAN GO TO A REFUGE OF LAST RESORT AS FOLLOWS...KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF SCHOOL MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MILE MARKER 48...CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL MILE MARKER 90...SHERATON KEY LARGO BEACH RESORT MILE MARKER 98 KEY LARGO...AND MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT MILE MARKER 103 KEY LARGO. EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY...THE CROWNE LA CONCHA HOTEL IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. OFFICIALS EMPHASIZE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT WILL NOT BE MANNED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS...AND THERE WILL BE NO SUPPLIES FOR EVACUEES. EVACUEES MUST BRING THEIR OWN WATER...BEDDING...AND SUPPLIES. NO PETS ARE PERMITTED AT REFUGES OF LAST RESORT. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND COURTS ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOL DAYTIME CUSTODIANS SHOULD REPORT TUESDAY. ALL CAMPUSES OF FLORIDA KEYS COMMUNITY COLLEGE ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY. THE CITY OF KEY WEST WILL ENACT A CURFEW FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A VOLUNTARY CURFEW ON ALCOHOL SALES AT LOCAL BARS. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED ACROSS PORTIONS THE LOWER KEYS...AND WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS IN THE HOUR OR SO...AND IN THE UPPER KEYS BY MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS AND DRIVING IS NO LONGER RECOMMENDED. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SHORTLY ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS. DURING THE LAST HOUR...C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF REGISTERED A WIND GUST TO 35 KNOTS...37 KNOTS AT MOLASSES REEF LIGHT...43 KNOTS AT SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT. OVER LAND...KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECORDED 44 KNOTS AND 27 KNOTS AT MARATHON AIRPORT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN SHIFT TO BETWEEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WILMA WILL THEN PASS JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE KEYS...AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE INDICATED ON THE GULF SIDE AND THE BAY SIDE. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR...AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK BRIDGE OVER ROUTE 1. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN OUTER RAINBANDS ARE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH HURRICANE WILMA. A VIOLENT WATERSPOUT WAS SPOTTED 5 NM WEST OF KEY WEST AT 4 PM. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOS WILL OCCUR FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SEVERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU LIVE IN A HIGHLY FLOOD-PRONE AREA TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FUTTERMAN/DEVANAS ** WTUS82 KTAE 240110 CCA *** HLSTAE FLZ034-240400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 910 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...PARTICULARLY DIXIE COUNTY. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER IN APALACHEE BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED THIS EVENING AND MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVEN THOUGH WILMA IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD... WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AS MUCH AS 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. IN PREPARATION FOR THESE WINDS...RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE IN ANY OUTDOOR FURNITURE OR OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS...AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ALONG THE DIXIE COUNTY COAST...AS ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE PRIMARILY OFFSHORE WINDS. ...WIND IMPACTS... IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WARNED AREA WOULD BE PRIMARILY FROM A FEW DOWNED TREES AND TREE LIMBS...WHICH COULD CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND ROAD HAZARDS...AND ALSO DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES ON WHICH THEY FALL. MINOR WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES...AND NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS COULD BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED. LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS LIGHT PATIO FURNITURE OR TRASH CANS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND. SOME CURRENT AREA WIND CONDITIONS AS OF 5 PM EDT ARE AS FOLLOWS: CROSS CITY: E AT 8 MPH. PERRY: NE AT 9 MPH. KEATON BEACH: NE AT 10 GUSTING TO 14 MPH. CEDAR KEY: NE AT 15 GUSTING TO 19 MPH. APALACHICOLA BUOY: NE AT 24 GUSTING TO 30 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED RAPID MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE WILMA...AND THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WILL BE LOCATED ON THE GENERALLY DRIER NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STORM...NO HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOOD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY NOT EXCEED ONE INCH. ...TORNADO THREAT... DUE TO THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...RIP CURRENTS... ALONG WITH THE HIGH SURF THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. EVERYONE...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS...SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SURF. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY MIDNIGHT EDT. $$ GODSEY ** WTNT54 KNHC 240152 *** TCEAT4 HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 AT 10 PM EDT...0200Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM... SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA. RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE WILMA IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH. IF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EYEWALL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED... THEN WILMA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE 11 PM ADVISORY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... AND ARE NOW WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 240229 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...ALPHA ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC... FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM... NORTH OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 21 MPH ...33 KM/HR...AND WILL BE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT THEN OUT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.5 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 240231 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005 0300Z MON OCT 24 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 72.9W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 72.9W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 72.9W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.1N 72.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.4N 70.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY WILMA REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 72.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 240231 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.4N 70.9W 27 X X X 27 MYMM 224N 730W 99 X X X 99 MBJT 215N 712W 29 X X X 29 MYSM 241N 745W 19 X X X 19 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 240231 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005 0300Z MON OCT 24 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 72.9W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 72.9W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 72.9W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.1N 72.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.4N 70.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY WILMA REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 72.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 240233 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ALPHA REMAINS A BIT ELUSIVE SINCE EMERGING FROM HISPANIOLA EARLIER TODAY BUT IT IS ASSUMED TO BE WITHIN THE PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS YIELDS A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE NORTHWARD MOTION OF 360/18...CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WILMA. GIVEN THE RESILIENCE OF THIS CONVECTIVE AREA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND SHIP ZCDG8 WHICH RECENTLY REPORTED 29 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHALLENGING. ON ONE HAND...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THE CIRCULATION IS NOW COMPLETELY OVER WATER. ON THE OTHER HAND...GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE RAPIDLY OVERTAKEN BY AND WILL MERGE WITH THE EXPANDING CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THIS INTERACTIONS WILL BEGIN SOONER RATHER THAN LATER AND KEEPS ALPHA AS A DEPRESSION UNTIL IT BECOMES COMPLETELY ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF WILMA IN 24-36 HOURS. FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 22.5N 72.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 25.1N 72.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 29.4N 70.9W 30 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED 36HR VT 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY WILMA $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 240238 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL ALPHA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...ALPHA ACELERANDO HACIA EL NORTE LEJOS DE LAS BAHAMAS Y HACIA AGUAS ABIERTAS DEL ATLANTICO... PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL ALPHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.9 OESTE O COMO A 100 MILLAS...160 KILOMETROS...AL NORTE DE LA ISLA GREAT INAGUA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 21 MPH...33 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y ESTARA ACELERANDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA LA DEPRESION SE ALEJARA DE LAS BAHAMAS DEL SUR ESTA NOCHE Y SE MOVERA SOBRE AGUAS ABIERTAS DEL ATLANTICO EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE ALPHA PRODUZCA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONALES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...22.5 NORTE...72.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 21 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/STEWART $$ TRADUCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. ** WTNT34 KNHC 240241 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD... AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD... INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. THESE WARNINGS AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED MONDAY MORNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT... NOAA DOPPLER RADARS... AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 170 MILES... 275 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION... WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... WILMA IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WELL BEFORE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL... ACCOMPANIED BY THE STRONGEST WINDS... WILL REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA ABOUT 2 HOURS BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE MAKES LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ...AND WILMA WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS WILMA CROSSES THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME THE CENTER REACHES THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... WESTERN CUBA... AND THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS. THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST BY MIDNIGHT... WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING THE LOWER KEYS AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST BEFORE SUNRISE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 17 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY... AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. WILMA MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS... THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ... AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. SCATTERED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 83.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 240242 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0300Z MON OCT 24 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD... AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD... INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. THESE WARNINGS AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED MONDAY MORNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 83.7W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 45 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 65NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT.......125NE 125SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 300SE 200SW 325NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 83.7W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 84.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.2N 81.2W...INLAND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 85SE 60SW 50NW. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 30.2N 76.3W...OVER ATLANTIC WATERS MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 85SE 60SW 30NW. 50 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 200SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.5N 69.9W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...225NE 250SE 225SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 42.9N 64.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 48.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 49.5N 49.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 50.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 83.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 240243 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.2N 76.3W 27 3 X X 30 NANTUCKET MA X 3 7 X 10 36.5N 69.9W X 15 3 1 19 HYANNIS MA X 3 5 1 9 42.9N 64.7W X X 11 2 13 BOSTON MA X 2 4 X 6 MUHA 230N 824W 8 X X X 8 PORTLAND ME X 1 4 1 6 MYNN 251N 775W 5 X X X 5 BAR HARBOR ME X X 7 2 9 MYGF 266N 787W 37 X X X 37 EASTPORT ME X X 8 3 11 BERMUDA X 1 1 X 2 ST JOHN NB X X 8 3 11 MARATHON FL 48 X X X 48 MONCTON NB X X 7 5 12 MIAMI FL 55 X X X 55 YARMOUTH NS X X 10 2 12 W PALM BEACH FL 55 X X X 55 HALIFAX NS X X 8 5 13 FT PIERCE FL 50 X X X 50 SABLE ISLAND NS X X 4 7 11 COCOA BEACH FL 33 X X X 33 SYDNEY NS X X 3 8 11 DAYTONA BEACH FL 10 X X X 10 EDDY POINT NS X X 5 7 12 MYRTLE BEACH SC 2 X X X 2 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X 2 8 10 WILMINGTON NC 2 2 X X 4 BURGEO NFLD X X 1 8 9 MOREHEAD CITY NC 2 4 1 X 7 ILE ST PIERRE X X 1 7 8 CAPE HATTERAS NC 1 7 X X 8 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 5 5 NORFOLK VA X 3 X X 3 KEY WEST FL 64 X X X 64 OCEAN CITY MD X 3 X X 3 MARCO ISLAND FL 70 X X X 70 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X 2 X X 2 FT MYERS FL 53 X X X 53 NEW YORK CITY NY X 2 1 X 3 VENICE FL 20 X X X 20 MONTAUK POINT NY X 3 3 X 6 TAMPA FL 6 X X X 6 PROVIDENCE RI X 2 4 X 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 240245 *** HLSTAE FLZ034-240900- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1023 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...PARTICULARLY DIXIE COUNTY. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER IN APALACHEE BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 18 MPH. WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED OVERNIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVEN THOUGH WILMA IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD... WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AS MUCH AS 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. IN PREPARATION FOR THESE WINDS...RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE IN ANY OUTDOOR FURNITURE OR OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS...AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ALONG THE DIXIE COUNTY COAST...AS ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE PRIMARILY OFFSHORE WINDS. ...WIND IMPACTS... IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WARNED AREA WOULD BE PRIMARILY FROM A FEW DOWNED TREES AND TREE LIMBS...WHICH COULD CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND ROAD HAZARDS...AND ALSO DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES ON WHICH THEY FALL. MINOR WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES...AND NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS COULD BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED. LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS LIGHT PATIO FURNITURE OR TRASH CANS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND. SOME CURRENT AREA WIND CONDITIONS AS OF 11 PM EDT ARE AS FOLLOWS: CROSS CITY: E AT MPH. PERRY: NE AT MPH. KEATON BEACH: NE AT 10 GUSTING TO 15 MPH. CEDAR KEY: NE AT 18 GUSTING TO 23 MPH. APALACHICOLA BUOY: NE AT 30 GUSTING TO 37 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED RAPID MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE WILMA...AND THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WILL BE LOCATED ON THE GENERALLY DRIER NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STORM...NO HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOOD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY NOT EXCEED ONE TO TWO INCHES. ...TORNADO THREAT... DUE TO THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...RIP CURRENTS... ALONG WITH THE HIGH SURF THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. EVERYONE...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS...SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SURF. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 6 AM EDT. $$ GODSEY ** WTUS82 KTAE 240246 *** HLSTAE FLZ034-240900- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...PARTICULARLY DIXIE COUNTY. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER IN APALACHEE BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 18 MPH. WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED OVERNIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVEN THOUGH WILMA IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD... WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AS MUCH AS 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. IN PREPARATION FOR THESE WINDS...RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE IN ANY OUTDOOR FURNITURE OR OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS...AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ALONG THE DIXIE COUNTY COAST...AS ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE PRIMARILY OFFSHORE WINDS. ...WIND IMPACTS... IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WARNED AREA WOULD BE PRIMARILY FROM A FEW DOWNED TREES AND TREE LIMBS...WHICH COULD CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND ROAD HAZARDS...AND ALSO DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES ON WHICH THEY FALL. MINOR WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES...AND NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS COULD BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED. LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS LIGHT PATIO FURNITURE OR TRASH CANS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND. SOME CURRENT AREA WIND CONDITIONS AS OF 11 PM EDT ARE AS FOLLOWS: CROSS CITY: E AT MPH. PERRY: NE AT MPH. KEATON BEACH: NE AT 10 GUSTING TO 15 MPH. CEDAR KEY: NE AT 18 GUSTING TO 23 MPH. APALACHICOLA BUOY: NE AT 30 GUSTING TO 37 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED RAPID MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE WILMA...AND THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WILL BE LOCATED ON THE GENERALLY DRIER NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STORM...NO HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOOD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY NOT EXCEED ONE TO TWO INCHES. ...TORNADO THREAT... DUE TO THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...RIP CURRENTS... ALONG WITH THE HIGH SURF THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. EVERYONE...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS...SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SURF. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 6 AM EDT. $$ GODSEY ** WTNT84 KNHC 240251 *** TCVAT4 WILMA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .HURRICANE WILMA FLC011-015-021-027-071-086-087-099-115-AMZ630-650-651-670-671-GMZ031- 033-656-657-676-853-856-873-876-240900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ FLC009-061-085-111-AMZ550-555-570-575-240900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ FLC035-109-AMZ454-474-240900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1024.051024T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W ST-AUGUSTINE-FL 29.89N 81.27W $$ FLC017-029-053-057-075-081-101-103-GMZ755-775-830-850-870-240900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W $$ FLC127-240900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ FLC031-089-AMZ452-472-240900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ST-AUGUSTINE-FL 29.89N 81.27W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ AMZ610-240900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-240900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...EYW...TBW...TAE...MLB...MFL... ** WTUS82 KJAX 240251 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-240900- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1050 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR DUVAL AND NASSAU COUNTIES... ...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON MONDAY FOR CLAY...DUVAL... MARION...NASSAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...NASSAU AND ST JOHNS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TITUSVILLE NORTH TO ST. AUGUSTINE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FROM ST AUGUSTINE NORTH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE LARGE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 170 MILES...SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WILMA IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WELL BEFORE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...AND WILMA WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS WILMA CROSSES THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME THE CENTER REACHES THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHILE THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM WILMA ARE EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR SOUTH... THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND THE LARGE WIND FIELD AROUND WILMA WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND SOUTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH AND BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES. MARINERS AND COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. TIDES WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY. LOCAL INLETS WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS TO NAVIGATION ON MONDAY DUE TO LARGE BREAKERS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN INCREASING IN BOTH AERIAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL WILMA MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF STATE ROAD 16 WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH. LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAINBANDS REMAIN STATIONARY. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE. IN THIS AREA SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. COASTAL AREAS OF DUVAL AND NASSAU COUNTIES CAN EXPECT WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. INLAND PORTIONS OF DUVAL...NASSAU...ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CLAY...MARION AND PUTNAM COUNTIES CAN EXPECT WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN THE STRONGER RAINBANDS. THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AS WELL AS CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA CAN EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNRISE OVER PORTIONS OF FLAGLER...MARION...PUTNAM AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. DAMAGING TORNADOES HAVE OCCURRED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTERESTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. ELSEWHERE THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVERNIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 500 AM EDT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE. $$ SANDRIK ** WTNT44 KNHC 240319 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 WILMA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING WITH THE LARGE 45 NMI DIAMETER BECOMING VERY DISTINCT IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. AIR FORCE RECON FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 114 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0104Z... WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 103 KT SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM KEY WEST HAS ALSO BEEN AS HIGH AS 109 KT AT 12000 FT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 958 MB... OR ABOUT 104 KT USING A STANDARD PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP. BASED ON THIS WIND INFORMATION AND THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN THE EYEWALL CONVECTION... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 100 KT... OR CATEGORY THREE/MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. A RECON VORTEX MESSAGE JUST HANDED TO ME NOW INDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 957 MB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/16. DUE TO A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TILT... THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BEEN PLACED ABOUT ONE-TENTH OF A DEGREE SOUTH OF THE RECON POSITIONS. WILMA HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED BY 4 KT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... AND CONTINUED ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA WILL LIKELY BE MOVING AT FORWARD SPEEDS OF 20 KT OR GREATER WHEN IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST AND CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN TO INCREASE FORWARD SPEED AT ALL TIMES... ESPECIALLY AFTER WILMA EMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN THE SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA... AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HAS EXTENDED ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOW IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF WILMA... SO A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA SEEMS LIKELY. THEREFORE... A TRACK FROM COLLIER COUNTY TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND EXITING PALM BEACH COUNTY DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. HOWEVER... GIVEN THAT WILMA HAS A 40-50 NMI DIAMETER EYE... HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM WHERE THE EXACT CENTER PASSES. IN THE LONGER TERM... ONCE WILMA EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD ACT TO LIFT WILMA RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST... WITH A POSSIBLE SECOND LANDFALL OCCURRING OVER NOVA SCOTIA AS A POWERFUL AND VERY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL. NOW THAT WILMA HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD... THE EFFECTS OF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MINIMIZED RIGHT UP UNTIL THE HURRICANE REACHES THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS SHOULD REMAIN INTACT UNTIL WILMA REACHES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WHICH FAVOR AT LEAST SUSTAINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY. EYES THIS LARGE ARE ALSO MORE STABLE AND ARE MORE RESISTANT TO VERTICAL SHEAR. AS SUCH... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... ANOTHER 5-KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR WHILE WILMA REMAINS OVER THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GULF LOOP CURRENT. GIVEN THE FAST FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED AS WILMA TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... LESS WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS COMPARED TO TYPICAL HURRICANES MOVING OVER LAND. THEREFORE... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE ATLANTIC... INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN WILMA TRANSITIONING INTO A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL WINTER-TYPE STORM SYSTEM... WHICH MAY PRODUCE A LARGE GALE AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM THAT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 24.4N 83.7W 100 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 26.2N 81.2W 100 KT...INLAND SWRN FLORIDA 24HR VT 25/0000Z 30.2N 76.3W 75 KT...OVER ATLANTIC 36HR VT 25/1200Z 36.5N 69.9W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 26/0000Z 42.9N 64.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 27/0000Z 48.0N 60.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 28/0000Z 49.5N 49.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 29/0000Z 50.0N 38.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 240325 *** HLSTAE FLZ034-240900- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1130 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...PARTICULARLY DIXIE COUNTY. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER IN APALACHEE BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 18 MPH. WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED OVERNIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVEN THOUGH WILMA IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD... WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AS MUCH AS 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. IN PREPARATION FOR THESE WINDS...RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE IN ANY OUTDOOR FURNITURE OR OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS...AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ALONG THE DIXIE COUNTY COAST...AS ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE PRIMARILY OFFSHORE WINDS. ...WIND IMPACTS... IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WARNED AREA WOULD BE PRIMARILY FROM A FEW DOWNED TREES AND TREE LIMBS...WHICH COULD CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND ROAD HAZARDS...AND ALSO DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES ON WHICH THEY FALL. MINOR WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES...AND NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS COULD BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED. LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS LIGHT PATIO FURNITURE OR TRASH CANS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND. SOME CURRENT AREA WIND CONDITIONS AS OF 11 PM EDT ARE AS FOLLOWS: CROSS CITY: NE AT 13 MPH. PERRY: NE AT 9 MPH. KEATON BEACH: NE AT 10 GUSTING TO 15 MPH. CEDAR KEY: NE AT 18 GUSTING TO 23 MPH. APALACHICOLA BUOY: NE AT 30 GUSTING TO 37 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED RAPID MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE WILMA...AND THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WILL BE LOCATED ON THE GENERALLY DRIER NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STORM...NO HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOOD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY NOT EXCEED ONE TO TWO INCHES. ...TORNADO THREAT... DUE TO THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...RIP CURRENTS... ALONG WITH THE HIGH SURF THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. EVERYONE...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS...SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SURF. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 6 AM EDT. $$ GODSEY/BARRY ** WTCA44 TJSJ 240326 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 35 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM CDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA SE FORTALECE A UN HURACAN INTENSO CATEGORIA 3... ...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL IMPACTANDO LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA MAS AL SUR... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS Y FLORIDA BAY...A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY HACIA EL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE TITUSVILLE HACIA EL SUR...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA SE EXTENDIO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA ST. AUGUSTINE. ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA STEINHATCHEE RIVER...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE TITUSVILLE HASTA ST. AUGUSTINE. ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE ST. AUGUSTINE HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE CIUDAD HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PROVINCIA DE MATANZAS. ESTOS AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS PODRIAN SER DESCONTINUADOS EN LA MANANA DEL LUNES. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE...INCLUYENDO ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...Y NEW PROVIDENCE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM CDT...0300Z...DATA DE UNN AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA RESRVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA...RADARES DOPPLER DE NOAA E IMAGENES DE SATELITE INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DEL EXTENSO OJO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.7 OESTE O COMO A 120 MILLAS...195 KILOMETROS AL OESTE DE CAYO HUESO FLORIDA Y COMO A 170 MILLAS...275 KILOMETROS AL SUROESTE DE NAPLES FLORIDA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION...ESTA NOCHE Y EL LUNES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRARA A TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA TEMPRANO EL LUNES EN LA MANANA. SIN EMBARGO WILMA ES UN EXTENSO HURACAN Y VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PODRIAN ALCANZAR LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA MUCHO ANTES DE LA LLEGADA DEL OJO. LA PARTE ESTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO...ACOMPANADO POR LOS VIENTOS MAS FUERTES...PODRIA LLEGAR A LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA COMO DOS HORAS ANTES QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD HASTA QUE EL HURACAN ENTRE A TIERRA...Y WILMA PODRIA ENTRAR A TIERRA COMO UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES. SE PRONOSTICA UN LENTO DEBILITAMIENTO A MEDIDA QUE WILMA CRUZA EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE EL HURACAN AUN PERMANEZCA COMO UN SIGNIFICATIVO HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS PARA EL TIEMPO EN QUE EL CENTRO ALCANCE LA COSTA ESTE TEMPRANO EN LA TARDE DEL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS... 370 KILOMETROS. RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN OCURRIENDO SOBRE EL CANAL DE YUCATAN...EL OESTE DE CUBA Y LOS CAYOS DEL SUR E INTERMEDIOS. ESTOS VIENTOS PODRIAN LLEGAR A LA COSTA SUROESTE DE LA FLORIDA PARA MEDIANOCHE...CON VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN ALCANZANDO LOS CAYOS DEL SUR Y EL SUROESTE DE LA FLORIDA ANTES DE LA SALIDA DEL SOL. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE RINFORMADA POR UN AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 958 MILIBARAS...28.29 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 9 A 17 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA CERCA Y AL SUR DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRE A TIERRA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 8 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EN FLORIDA BAY...ASI COMO EN EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS HASTA EL LUNES A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA. LA LLUVIA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y SECTORES DE LA FLORIDA CENTRAL...INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA...HASTA EL LUNES EN LA TARDE...SE ESPERA QUE SEAN DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE ALREDEDOR DE 12 PULGADAS. DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SON POSIBLES SOBRE SECTORES DEL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA CONTINUARAN AFECTANDO SECTORES DEL NORESTE DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DESDE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HACIA EL NORTE ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL LUNES. LA AMENAZA DE TORNADOS A TRAVES DE LOS SECTORES CENTRALES Y DEL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA...HAN AUMENTADO SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES EN ESTAS AREAS DESDE ESTA NOCHE HASTA EL LUNES EN LA TARDE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM CDT...24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 958 MB. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM CDT Y A LAS 3 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS82 KEYW 240342 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-240630- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1145 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. TORNADO IMPACTS. RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM MONDAY FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...STORM INFORMATION... HURRICANE WILMA IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE. AT 1100 PM EDT THE CENTER OF NOW MAJOR HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST...ABOUT 120 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS WILMA CROSSES THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME THE CENTER REACHES THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 958 MB...OR 28.29 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE EVACUATION HAS ENDED IN THE KEYS. RESIDENTS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED AND WHO DO NOT FEEL SAFE IN THEIR HOMES...ESPECIALLY IN MOBILE HOMES...CAN GO TO A REFUGE OF LAST RESORT. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS THE LATEST FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. REFUGES OF LAST RESORT ARE AS FOLLOWS...KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF SCHOOL MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MILE MARKER 48...CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL MILE MARKER 90...AND THE SHERATON KEY LARGO BEACH RESORT MILE MARKER 98 KEY LARGO...AND MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT MILE MARKER 103 KEY LARGO. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS CLARIFYING THE SITUATION REGARDING THE CROWNE PLAZA LA CONCHA IN KEY WEST. CROWNE LA CONCHA HOTEL IN KEY WEST IS OPEN AND IS SERVING AS A REFUGE OF LAST RESORT. OFFICIALS EMPHASIZE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT WILL NOT BE MANNED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS...AND THERE WILL BE NO SUPPLIES FOR EVACUEES. EVACUEES MUST BRING THEIR OWN WATER...BEDDING...AND SUPPLIES. NO PETS ARE PERMITTED AT REFUGES OF LAST RESORT. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND COURTS ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOL DAYTIME CUSTODIANS SHOULD REPORT TUESDAY. ALL CAMPUSES OF FLORIDA KEYS COMMUNITY COLLEGE ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY. THE CITY OF KEY WEST HAVE ALREADY ENACTED A CURFEW AS OF 10 PM THIS EVENING EFFECTIVE UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED ACROSS PORTIONS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...AND WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS WITHIN TWO HOURS. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS AND DRIVING IS BECOMING DANGEROUS...AND WILL SOON BE IMPOSSIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE NOW DETERIORATING ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS. DURING THE LAST HOUR...LONG KEY C MAN IN FLORIDA BAY REGISTERED A WIND GUST TO 35 KNOTS. ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF...MOLASSES REEF LIGHT REGISTERED 28 KNOTS...SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT REGISTERED 48 KNOTS. OVER LAND...KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECORDED 52 KNOTS AND 34 KNOTS AT MARATHON AIRPORT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WILMA WILL THEN PASS JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE KEYS...AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE ARE EXPECTED LATE OVERNIGHT. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE INDICATED ON THE GULF SIDE AND THE BAY SIDE. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR...AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK BRIDGE OVER ROUTE 1. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN OUTER RAINBANDS ARE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH HURRICANE WILMA. THE FLORIDA KEYS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITHIN SPIRAL RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. A VIOLENT WATERSPOUT WAS SPOTTED 5 NM WEST OF KEY WEST AT 4 PM...AND KEY WEST RADAR HAS INDICATED SEVERAL VIOLENT WATERSPOUTS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. SEVERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU LIVE IN A HIGHLY FLOOD-PRONE AREA TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FUTTERMAN ** WTUS82 KTBW 240350 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-240630- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1130 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WHILE MOVING TOWARD SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE WILMA IS SLOWLY GAINING SOME STRENGTH. LATEST RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATED THAT WILMA IS NOW A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WEST COAST AS A STRONG CATEGORY 2. A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM CITRUS COUNTY SOUTHWARD UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL RAINBANDS FROM WILMA REACH THE AREA. ANY TORNADOES WILL BE FAST MOVING. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK... PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...SUMTER AND LEVY COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 196 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS AND 260 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA. WILMA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 18 MPH...AND SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. ...WIND IMPACTS... DANGEROUS WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN LEE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD. THE LATEST TRACK WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ONSHORE IN LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS IN SQUALLS BY 4 AM. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 TO 80 MPH...IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM. BECAUSE WILMA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST HIGH CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH WHILE ACCELERATING INLAND...GUSTS TO 100 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SQUALLS. FARTHER NORTH IN THE HURRICANE AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD ARRIVE BY 4 AM...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS...50 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 75 TO 85 MPH...BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM...PERHAPS UP TO 11 AM IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY. IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND POINTS NORTH THROUGH HERNANDO COUNTY... TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND OR SOON AFTER 5 AM...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS...40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH...EXPECTED BETWEEN 7 AM AND 12 PM. IMPACTS FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY INCLUDE: POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. OTHERS WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WALLS... AND WINDOWS...AND WILL LIKELY BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE PARTIAL WALL AND ROOF FAILURE...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. MOST LANAI SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL HAVE DAMAGE...SOME WILL BE DESTROYED. UNSECURED LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND PERHAPS INJURY. MANY AREAS WILL HAVE POWER OUTAGES...HUNDREDS OF WIRES WILL FALL...TRANSFORMERS WILL POP...AND SOME POWER POLES WILL BE PULLED DOWN. ROTTING LARGE TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED GROUND. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP...AND MODERATE DAMAGE IS EXPECTED IN CITRUS ORCHARDS. UP TO ONE HALF OF NEWLY PLANTED CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED. IMPACTS FOR SARASOTA...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...AND HARDEE COUNTY INCLUDE: OLDER MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE. SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES ...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. MANY LANAI SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL BE DAMAGED. UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS. MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED. DOZENS OF PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO CITRUS GROVES AND NEWLY PLANTED LOWLAND CROPS. IMPACTS FOR THE TAMPA BAY AND LAKELAND AREAS INCLUDE: MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES. POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES MAY RECEIVE SOME WALL DAMAGE AND PARTIAL ROOF REMOVAL. A FEW HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES AND SIDING. A FEW POOL CAGES AND LANAI SCREENS WILL BE DAMAGED. UNSECURED LIGHT WEIGHT ITEMS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. SOME ELECTRICAL WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED. SOME ROTTING SMALL TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...AND ROTTEN LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. NUMEROUS SMALL TWIGS WILL SEPARATE FROM TREES. A FEW PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. ...SURGE IMPACTS... TIDES CONTINUE RUNNING AROUND A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING POINTS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. HOWEVER...AS WILMA APPROACHES...TIDES SHOULD RISE AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL...INCLUDING LOCATIONS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK. THUS...TIDAL DEPARTURES MAY RANGE UP TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...AND UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE...BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY AND EVACUATE WATER FROM MANY OF THESE AREAS. TIDES MAY RISE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WEST FACING BEACHES OF LEE COUNTY...INCLUDING BONITA BEACH...FORT MYERS BEACH...AND THE NORTH END OF SANIBEL AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PINE ISLAND. STORM TIDES COULD REACH 4 FEET OR HIGHER...WHICH MAY PRODUCE RUN UP...OVERWASH...OR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING. PLEASE NOTE THAT ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR MINOR TO MODERATE STORM SURGE FLOODING IN LEE COUNTY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HURRICANE WILMA OVERSPREAD THE AREA. RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 INCH IN LEVY COUNTY... 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES IN HEAVIER BANDS FROM TAMPA TO LAKELAND AND POINTS NORTH...3 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES ELSEWHERE NORTH OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY...AND 4 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 6 INCHES IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE MANATEE RIVER LATE MONDAY...AND ON THE PEACE AND LITTLE MANATEE RIVERS BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 215 AM EDT SUNDAY. $$ AR ** WTUS82 KMLB 240351 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 241000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1150 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...HURRICANE WILMA IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...NEW INFORMATION... WILMA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH. WILMA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE LOWER SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED AROUND 5 TO 6 AM. THIS MEANS THAT THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY ARRIVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY FOR OKEECHOBEE... MARTIN...AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE...WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO SAINT AUGUSTINE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN BREVARD...VOLUSIA...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN...INDIAN RIVER... OKEECHOBEE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT PIERCE. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 18 MPH...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD BE BRINGING THEIR HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO AN END AND BE RETREATING TO THEIR DESIGNATED SAFE PLACE ACCORDING TO THEIR ACTION PLAN...STAYING INDOORS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS. IMPORTANTLY...RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LISTEN FOR TORNADO WARNINGS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THEIR AREA AND BE READY TO TAKE COVER OVERNIGHT. IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED...PLEASE TAKE THEM SERIOUSLY. DURING SUNDAY EVENING...A TORNADO MOVED THROUGH COCOA VILLAGE IN BREVARD COUNTY CAUSING DAMAGE. IN THE EVENT OF A TORNADO...OR EVEN FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WITHIN THE INNER RAINBANDS OF WILMA...THE SAFEST PLACE IS IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BLOCK HOME OR BUILDING...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. NOW THAT WILMA HAS BECOME STRONGER AND MOVING FASTER...THE THREAT FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND...EVEN CROSSING THE PENINSULA TO THE EAST COAST...IS VERY REAL CONCERN!!! ...WIND IMPACTS... THE GREATEST THREAT FROM WILMA ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELD IS VERY LARGE AND THEREFORE WILL ARRIVE WELL BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE CORE WINDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS OKEECHOBEE... OSCEOLA...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS BREVARD...ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES BY SUNRISE...AND POSSIBLY SPREAD NORTH INTO INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES BY MID MORNING. BECAUSE THE OF THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA...WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE RIGHT. IT IS LIKELY THAT A BAND OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 100 MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. THESE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIALS...AS WELL AS EXPOSED DOORS AND WINDOWS. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO MOBILE HOMES THAT HAPPEN TO BE IN THE PATH OF THE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WILL OCCUR FROM DOWNED TREES AND LARGE SIGNS. A FEW ROADS MAY BECOME BLOCKED DUE TO SOME LARGE DEBRIS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MAIN WIND SWATH OF THE CORE WINDS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS HIGH. STRONG AND LONGER-LIVED TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN THE KEYS...AND ALSO BETWEEN FORT DRUM IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO BREVARD COUNTY AT COCOA VILLAGE. THE THREAT OF STRONG AND LONGER-LIVED TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. HISTORICALLY...LATE SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE PRODUCED KILLER TORNADOES. THEREFORE...TAKE TORNADO WARNINGS SERIOUSLY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. BECAUSE WILMA WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE... WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES MAY OCCUR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS OUTER RAINBANDS FROM WILMA LIFT NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTERSECT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM DAYTONA TO ORLANDO AND SOUTHWARD AS THE CORE OF HURRICANE WILMA PLOWS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA AND THE MOVEMENT OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC...HIGH IMPACT STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A STORM TIDE OF PERHAPS 3 OR 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE BEFORE AND AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY... NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES OFFSHORE. EXTREMELY ROUGH SURF...BEACH EROSION...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES AS WILMA MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. ...MARINE IMPACTS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR MARINERS DUE TO ITS RAPID APPROACH AND ACCELERATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME HAZARDOUS WITH BUILDING SEAS AND THEN BECOME EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY NWS MELBOURNE AROUND 3 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON WILMA LOCAL INFO. $$ DWS ** WTNT54 KNHC 240351 *** TCEAT4 HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 12 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 AT 12 AM EDT...0400Z... DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATES THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 260 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS... AND ARE NOW WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. DURING THE PAST HOUR... A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH WAS REPORTED AT KEY WEST... AND A GUST TO 61 MPH WAS MEASURED BY THE C-MAN OBSERVING SITE ON SOMBRERO KEY. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 240400 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-241030- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1159 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA ACCELERATING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS UPDATED PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS UPDATED LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN A TIME WINDOW CENTERED AROUND 7 AM SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MARCO ISLAND AND CHOKOLOSKEE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...AND WILMA WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS WILMA CROSSES THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME THE CENTER REACHES THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...AND RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK OF WILMA HAS REMAINED CONSTANT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...PEOPLE ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT 5 TO 10 HOURS REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE EVENTUAL TRACK ENDS UP BEING. SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS AND NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA AS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN COLLIER COUNTY IN A WINDOW CENTERED AROUND 7 AM EDT. IN THAT SAME TIME WINDOW AND SHORTLY AFTER...A STORM TIDE OF UP TO 13 TO 18 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF CAPE ROMANO TO CAPE SABLE INCLUDING EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE. THIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF LOCAL ACCESS ROADS TO MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING STATE ROADS 92...951...953 AND 29 AND LARGE PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL U.S. HIGHWAY 41. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST...A STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 9 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED FROM JUST SOUTH OF NAPLES TO MARCO ISLAND AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN MARCO ISLAND. THESE VALUES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK WHICH CAN STILL CHANGE BY AS MUCH AS 30 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH. THEREFORE...IF YOU LIVE IN AN AREA PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO EVACUATE. A STORM TIDE OF 8 TO 13 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLAMINGO AREA MID MORNING MONDAY. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...PARTICULARLY BISCAYNE BAY... A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN CANALS AND WATERWAYS. SOUTH WINDS WILL PILE SOME WATER INTO THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY CAUSING SOME FLOODING OF CAUSEWAYS AND LOW LYING BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME FROM EARLY TO MID MORNING MONDAY. OVER BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTS...STORM TIDES OF 2 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS IS EXPECTED FROM EARLY MORNING TO AROUND NOON MONDAY OVER AREAS INSIDE THE DIKE FROM LAKEPORT TO CLEWISTON...WITH 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS ELSEWHERE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE SOUTH TO LAKEPORT...AND FROM CLEWISTON THROUGH PORT MAYACA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION INCLUDING TORRY...KREAMER AND RITTA ISLANDS AND SOME ACCESS ROADS. THE LAKE LEVEL ON SUNDAY WAS 15.6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE 11 PM FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE DAWN. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER THAN 74 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY COASTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EASTWARD TO PALM BEACH... BROWARD...AND MIAMI DADE THROUGH SUNRISE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBSIDING BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE SUBSIDING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS NEAR AND WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...WHERE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 115 MPH COULD BE SUSTAINED...CAN EXPECT TO SEE EXTENSIVE WIND DAMAGE... STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS WITH WALL AND ROOF FAILURES...EXTENSIVE TO COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES...NUMEROUS LARGE TRESS AND SIGNS BLOWN DOWN...MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE DUE TO LARGE DEBRIS...AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO LIKELY. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LARGE TREES WILL LIKELY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PERSONS MUST NOT DRIVE OR WALK AROUND IN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. SEVERAL SOUTH FLORIDA DEATHS OCCURRED IN KATRINA WHEN PEOPLE DECIDED TO WALK AROUND TO WATCH TREES FALL IN STRONG WINDS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS AN 80 TO 100 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...RANGES FROM BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST FROM NAPLES SOUTHWARD...TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPAC