** WTCA44 TJSJ 231815 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 33A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA CATEGORIA DOS GRADUALMENTE ACELERANDO HACIA EL NORESTE... ...PODRIA INTENSIFICARSE HOY O ESTA NOCHE SOBRE LAS CALIDAS AGUAS DEL GOLFO... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS Y FLORIDA BAY...A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY HACIA EL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE TITUSVILLE AL SUR...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA STEINHATCHEE RIVER DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL NORTE DE TITUSVILLE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA TULUM...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISON DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE CIUDAD HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PROVINCIA DE MATANZAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS BAHAMAS DE LA PARTE NOROESTE...INCLUYENDO ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...Y NEW PROVIDENCE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LA 1 PM CDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.3 OESTE... COMO A 240 MILLAS...390 KILOMETROS AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA...O COMO A 300 MILLAS...485 KM...AL SUROESTE DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. EN LAS PASADAS HORAS...RAFAGAS DE HASTA 64 MPH... 103 KM/HR... FUERON REPORTADOS EN LA PALMA EN LA COSTA NORTE DEL OESTE DE CUBA. TAMBIEN...LA OFICINA METEOROLOGICA DE LA HAVANA CUBA RECIENTEMENTE MIDIO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 62 MPH ...100 KM/HR. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA ERA DE 963 MILIBARAS...28.44 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 9 A 15 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE Y CERCA Y AL SUR DE DONDE EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRE A TIERRA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 8 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EN FLORIDA BAY...ASI COMO EN EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA. MAREJADA CICLONICA A LO LARGO DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS DEBERAN DISMINUIR GRADUALMENTE A MEDIDA QUE WILMA SE VAYA ALEJANDO. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON TOTALES MAXIMOS AISLADOS ACERCANDOSE A LAS 50 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA A TRAVES DE FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS HASTA EL MARTES SE ESPERA QUE SEAN DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS... CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE ALREDEDOR DE 12 PULGADAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA CONTINUAN PROPAGANDOSE HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS PODRIAN AFECTAR A PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL CENTRO Y EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 PM CDT...23.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 963 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 PM CDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR KNABB ** WTUS82 KTBW 231830 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-232130- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 230 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK... PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...SUMTER AND LEVY COUNTIES. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA AND 325 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. WILMA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS... NO WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO A GUSTY NORTHERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ...SURGE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE RUNNING AROUND A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING POINTS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. LEE AND PERHAPS CHARLOTTE COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE OVERWASH AND SOME TIDAL FLOODING EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA APPROACHES. NORTH OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE AN OUTGOING TIDE WHICH MAY EXPOSE SANDBARS AND OTHER FEATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLETS...BAYS... AND HARBORS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HURRICANE WILMA GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HURRICANE WILMA OVERSPREAD THE AREA. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...BUT 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS CHARLOTTE...LEE...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE MANATEE RIVER LATE MONDAY...AND ON THE PEACE AND LITTLE MANATEE RIVERS BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...35 TO 60 KNOTS... TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE THREAT FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...ABOVE 64 KNOTS...IS GREATEST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS NOT EXPECTED WELL NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. HOWEVER INCREASING WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH GOOD ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES OR MARINE WATERSPOUTS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE GREATEST WIND SHEAR WILL RESIDE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. OLDER MOBILE HOMES IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE. SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION MAY HAVE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. MANY LANAI SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL BE DAMAGED. UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS. MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED. DOZENS OF PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO CITRUS ORCHARDS AND NEWLY PLANTED LOWLAND CROPS. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. $$ MCMICHAEL ** WTUS82 KEYW 231831 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-232130- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS ALSO ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST...ABOUT 240 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. FORWARD SPEED GRADUALLY WILL INCREASE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA WAS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 963 MB...OR 28.44 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... YOUR PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN. SHELTERS ARE NOT OPEN IN THE KEYS. TOLLS ARE SUSPENDED ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE. KEY WEST AIRPORT IS CLOSED. MARATHON IS CLOSED. GREYHOUND HAS SUSPENDED SERVICE. J G T BUS SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED PICKUPS IN KEY WEST. THIS FREE SERVICE WILL CONTINUE FROM MARATHON TO KEY LARGO SO LONG AS CONDITIONS PERMIT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY CALL THE MONROE COUNTY HOTLINE AT 1-800-955-5504...IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY HOTLINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH...AND EVEN HIGHER IN SHOWERS...SO USE EXTRA CARE ON OUR ELEVATED BRIDGES. WE EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. IF WILMA PASSES JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE KEYS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST. TIE OFF YOUR VESSEL WITH THIS IN MIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WE ESTIMATE STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE LATE TONIGHT. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE INDICATED ON THE GULF SIDE AND BAY SIDE. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR...AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK BRIDGE OVER ROUTE 1. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN OUTER RAINBANDS ARE A THREAT WITH HURRICANE WILMA. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL OCCUR FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SEVERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU LIVE IN A HIGHLY FLOOD-PRONE AREA TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM/AD ** WTUS82 KMFL 231852 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-232300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 252 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA GRADUALLY ACCELERATING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...PEOPLE ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OF WILMA. SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD RUSH THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO COMPLETION BEFORE DARK. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST SOMEWHERE IN COLLIER COUNTY. A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 8 TO 14 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL MID MORNING MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF LOCAL ACCESS ROADS TO MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING STATE ROADS 92...951...953 AND 29 AND LARGE PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL U.S. HIGHWAY 41. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF LARGE PARTS OF NAPLES ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL AND MARCO ISLAND IS EXPECTED. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT CONCENTRATE ON THE EXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER BECAUSE THE ERROR INHERENT 24 HOURS AWAY FROM LANDFALL CAN BE AS MUCH AS 70 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF COLLIER COUNTY AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. IF YOU BELIEVE YOUR LOCATION IS POSSIBLY PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...THE BEST ACTION IS TO EVACUATE. A STORM TIDE AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED MID MORNING MONDAY IN THE TEN THOUSAND ISLANDS OF EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK. A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLAMINGO AREA MID MORNING MONDAY AND UP TO 10 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF CAPE SABLE. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INCLUDING MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES...A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED MID MORNING MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN CANALS AND WATERWAYS. SOUTH WINDS WILL PILE SOME WATER INTO THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY CAUSING SOME FLOODING OF CAUSEWAYS AND LOW LYING BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM TIDE OF 18 TO 20 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHICH WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS...IS EXPECTED WITH WILMA FROM MID MORNING TO AROUND NOON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE WILL BE OCCURRING FROM THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK EAST TO BELLE GLADE AND SOUTH BAY INCLUDING CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN...THEN ALSO ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE UP TO PAHOKEE AND PORT MAYACA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION INCLUDING TORRY...KREAMER AND RITTA ISLANDS AND SOME ACCESS ROADS. THE LAKE LEVEL ON SATURDAY WAS 15.58 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER COLLIER COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING...REACHING THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER THAN 74 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY...REACHING METRO MIAMI-DADE AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION NEAR DAWN AND THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH METRO AREAS BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...GENERALLY A FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN MOST AREAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND IN METRO PALM BEACH AND BROWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. MAJOR WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...WITH DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIAL...DOORS...AND WINDOWS OF BUILDINGS. SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS ALSO POSSIBLE. OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO LIKELY. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PERSONS MUST NOT DRIVE OR WALK AROUND IN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. SEVERAL SOUTH FLORIDA DEATHS OCCURRED IN KATRINA WHEN PEOPLE DECIDED TO WALK AROUND TO WATCH TREES FALL IN STRONG WINDS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A 75 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST FROM EVERGLADES CITY SOUTHWARD...20 TO 35 PERCENT ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF A BONITA BEACH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO JUPITER LINE...AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA WILL AFFECT THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ROUGH SEAS...AND WATERSPOUTS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE BANDS AS THEY MOVE NORTH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 13 FEET OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REACH HURRICANE FORCE...64 KNOTS...IN THE GULF WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING VERY ROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING AROUND NOON MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING MID MORNING MONDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS WILMA RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MARINERS SHOULD RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION FOR THE PROTECTION OF MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS. BE SURE TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IS COLLIER COUNTY... PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES WILL BE THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF WILMA. THESE BANDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM. $$ MOLLEDA ** WTUS82 KEYW 231942 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-232130- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 340 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ADDED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST...ABOUT 240 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. FORWARD SPEED GRADUALLY WILL INCREASE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA WAS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 963 MB...OR 28.44 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... YOUR PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN. SHELTERS ARE NOT OPEN IN THE KEYS. TOLLS ARE SUSPENDED ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE. KEY WEST AIRPORT IS CLOSED. MARATHON IS CLOSED. GREYHOUND HAS SUSPENDED SERVICE. J G T BUS SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED PICKUPS IN KEY WEST. THIS FREE SERVICE WILL CONTINUE FROM MARATHON TO KEY LARGO SO LONG AS CONDITIONS PERMIT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY CALL THE MONROE COUNTY HOTLINE AT 1-800-955-5504...IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY HOTLINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH...AND EVEN HIGHER IN SHOWERS...SO USE EXTRA CARE ON OUR ELEVATED BRIDGES. WE EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. IF WILMA PASSES JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE KEYS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST. TIE OFF YOUR VESSEL WITH THIS IN MIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WE ESTIMATE STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE LATE TONIGHT. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE INDICATED ON THE GULF SIDE AND BAY SIDE. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR...AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK BRIDGE OVER ROUTE 1. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN OUTER RAINBANDS ARE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH HURRICANE WILMA. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL OCCUR FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SEVERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU LIVE IN A HIGHLY FLOOD-PRONE AREA TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM/AD ** WTUS82 KMFL 231945 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-232300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 344 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS UPDATED PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION UPDATED LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...PEOPLE ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OF WILMA. SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD RUSH THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO COMPLETION BEFORE DARK. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REMEMBER THAT TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND WITH LITTLE WARNING...ESPECIALLY THOSE INDUCED FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES. PLEASE MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK PROTECTIVE ACTION IF A TORNADO IS SIGHTED OR A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST SOMEWHERE IN COLLIER COUNTY. A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 8 TO 14 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL MID MORNING MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF LOCAL ACCESS ROADS TO MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING STATE ROADS 92...951...953 AND 29 AND LARGE PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL U.S. HIGHWAY 41. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF LARGE PARTS OF NAPLES ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL AND MARCO ISLAND IS EXPECTED. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT CONCENTRATE ON THE EXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER BECAUSE THE ERROR INHERENT 24 HOURS AWAY FROM LANDFALL CAN BE AS MUCH AS 70 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF COLLIER COUNTY AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. IF YOU BELIEVE YOUR LOCATION IS POSSIBLY PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...THE BEST ACTION IS TO EVACUATE. A STORM TIDE AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED MID MORNING MONDAY IN THE TEN THOUSAND ISLANDS OF EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK. A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLAMINGO AREA MID MORNING MONDAY AND UP TO 10 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF CAPE SABLE. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INCLUDING MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES...A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED MID MORNING MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN CANALS AND WATERWAYS. SOUTH WINDS WILL PILE SOME WATER INTO THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY CAUSING SOME FLOODING OF CAUSEWAYS AND LOW LYING BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM TIDE OF 18 TO 20 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHICH WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS...IS EXPECTED WITH WILMA FROM MID MORNING TO AROUND NOON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE WILL BE OCCURRING FROM THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK EAST TO BELLE GLADE AND SOUTH BAY INCLUDING CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN...THEN ALSO ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE UP TO PAHOKEE AND PORT MAYACA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION INCLUDING TORRY...KREAMER AND RITTA ISLANDS AND SOME ACCESS ROADS. THE LAKE LEVEL ON SATURDAY WAS 15.58 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER COLLIER COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING...REACHING THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER THAN 74 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY...REACHING METRO MIAMI-DADE AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION NEAR DAWN AND THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH METRO AREAS BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...GENERALLY A FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN MOST AREAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND IN METRO PALM BEACH AND BROWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. MAJOR WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...WITH DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIAL...DOORS...AND WINDOWS OF BUILDINGS. SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS ALSO POSSIBLE. OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO LIKELY. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PERSONS MUST NOT DRIVE OR WALK AROUND IN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. SEVERAL SOUTH FLORIDA DEATHS OCCURRED IN KATRINA WHEN PEOPLE DECIDED TO WALK AROUND TO WATCH TREES FALL IN STRONG WINDS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A 75 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST FROM EVERGLADES CITY SOUTHWARD...20 TO 35 PERCENT ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF A BONITA BEACH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO JUPITER LINE...AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA WILL AFFECT THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ROUGH SEAS...AND WATERSPOUTS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE BANDS AS THEY MOVE NORTH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 13 FEET OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REACH HURRICANE FORCE...64 KNOTS...IN THE GULF WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING VERY ROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING AROUND NOON MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING MID MORNING MONDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS WILMA RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MARINERS SHOULD RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION FOR THE PROTECTION OF MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS. BE SURE TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IS COLLIER COUNTY... PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES WILL BE THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF WILMA. THESE BANDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM. $$ MOLLEDA ** WTNT35 KNHC 232040 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA NEARING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... AT 5 AM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR ESTIMATED 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALPHA COULD BRIEFLY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.S FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN... BRINGING TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...20.6 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 232041 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005 2100Z SUN OCT 23 2005 AT 5 AM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 72.9W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 72.9W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 72.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.8N 73.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.5N 71.0W...BECOMING ABSORBED BY WILMA MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 72.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 232042 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE IF THERE WAS A SURFACE CIRCULATION OR NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION AFTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND I WAS TEMPTED TO DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A NEW AREA OF CIRCULAR CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF HAITI NEAR THE POSSIBLE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. WE ARE FOLLOWING THE CENTER OF THE CLOUD MASS WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS IN THE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF WILMA. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE CIRCULATION IS BACK OVER WATER...A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AND ALPHA COULD TEMPORARILY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...MOST LIKELY THE DEPRESSION WILL INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF WILMA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 20.6N 72.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 22.8N 73.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 26.0N 73.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 31.5N 71.0W 30 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED 48HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 232042 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.0N 73.5W 43 5 X X 48 MYMM 224N 730W 80 X X X 80 31.5N 71.0W X 20 X X 20 MYSM 241N 745W 53 X X X 53 MTPP 186N 724W 43 X X X 43 MYEG 235N 758W 28 X X X 28 MUGM 200N 751W 4 X X X 4 MYAK 241N 776W 2 1 X X 3 MBJT 215N 712W 18 X X X 18 MYNN 251N 775W 3 1 X X 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 232051 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 ...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ... TO CORRECT THE TIME...5 PM AST IN WARNING SECTION... ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA NEARING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR ESTIMATED 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALPHA COULD BRIEFLY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.S FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN... BRINGING TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...20.6 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 232052 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005 2100Z SUN OCT 23 2005 ... IT IS 5 PM IN THE WARNING SECTION... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 72.9W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 72.9W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 72.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.8N 73.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.5N 71.0W...BECOMING ABSORBED BY WILMA MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 72.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 232052 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA A LITTLE STRONGER AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IMPACTING WESTERN CUBA AND APPROACHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 295 MILES... 475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WILMA IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND NOW ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF WILMA...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE ALSO RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED IN HAVANA CUBA. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 959 MB...28.32 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 17 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE KEYS... THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...23.5 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 232053 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 2100Z SUN OCT 23 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 84.9W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 45 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 65NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT.......125NE 125SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 300SE 175SW 325NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 84.9W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 85.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.8N 83.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 85SE 60SW 50NW. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.6N 79.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 85SE 60SW 30NW. 50 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 200SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.2N 74.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...225NE 250SE 225SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.5N 68.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 49.0N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 50.0N 42.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 84.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 232053 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL ALPHA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL ALPHA ACERCANDOSE AL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARA TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL ALPHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE 20.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.9 OESTE O COMO A 40 MILLAS...65 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE GREAT INAGUA ISLAND. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS CONTINUAN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALPHA PODRIA BREVEMENTE RECOBRAR STATUS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ANTES DE DISIPARSE EN UN DIA APROXIMADAMENTE. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE ALPHA PRODUZCA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONALES...TRAYENDO ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSOS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENACEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...20.6 NORTE...72.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EXPEDIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 232054 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT WED OCT 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.6N 79.3W 34 3 X X 37 MONTAUK POINT NY X X 4 1 5 32.2N 74.5W X 16 4 X 20 PROVIDENCE RI X X 4 2 6 38.5N 68.5W X X 9 3 12 NANTUCKET MA X X 6 2 8 MUHA 230N 824W 26 X X X 26 HYANNIS MA X X 5 3 8 MUAN 219N 850W 52 X X X 52 BOSTON MA X X 3 3 6 MYAK 241N 776W 4 2 X X 6 PORTLAND ME X X 2 4 6 MYNN 251N 775W 9 5 X X 14 BAR HARBOR ME X X 2 6 8 MYGF 266N 787W 33 3 X X 36 EASTPORT ME X X 2 7 9 BERMUDA X X 1 1 2 ST JOHN NB X X 1 9 10 MARATHON FL 52 X X X 52 MONCTON NB X X 1 9 10 MIAMI FL 49 X X X 49 YARMOUTH NS X X 2 8 10 W PALM BEACH FL 45 1 X X 46 HALIFAX NS X X 1 9 10 FT PIERCE FL 38 1 X X 39 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 8 8 COCOA BEACH FL 26 3 X X 29 SYDNEY NS X X X 8 8 DAYTONA BEACH FL 10 2 X X 12 EDDY POINT NS X X X 9 9 JACKSONVILLE FL 1 1 X X 2 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 7 7 CHARLESTON SC X 2 X X 2 BURGEO NFLD X X X 6 6 MYRTLE BEACH SC X 3 X X 3 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 5 5 WILMINGTON NC X 4 X X 4 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 2 2 MOREHEAD CITY NC X 6 1 X 7 KEY WEST FL 62 X X X 62 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 6 2 X 8 MARCO ISLAND FL 57 X X X 57 NORFOLK VA X 2 1 X 3 FT MYERS FL 46 X X X 46 OCEAN CITY MD X 1 2 X 3 VENICE FL 27 X X X 27 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 2 X 2 TAMPA FL 11 X X X 11 NEW YORK CITY NY X X 2 1 3 CEDAR KEY FL 2 X X X 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM MON TO 1AM TUE C FROM 1AM TUE TO 1PM TUE D FROM 1PM TUE TO 1PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 232112 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 WILMA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD HEADING...WITH CURRENT SPEED OF ABOUT 12 KT...AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE MOVING TWICE AS FAST BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES IS PROGRESSING TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING... AND IT SHOULD REACH THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. MEANWHILE AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DEEPEN AND ENHANCE THE WESTERLIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BRINGING WILMA OVER FLORIDA. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN EVEN TIGHTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE THE CENTER OF WILMA TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE TIMING. HOWEVER... THE SPEED OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. AS A RESULT... THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON WHERE WILMA WILL GO...IT REMAINS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD... AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN PROVIDING DATA FROM WILMA THIS AFTERNOON... AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FALLING... MOST RECENTLY TO 959 MB. GIVEN THE LOWERING PRESSURE... SFMR WINDS AS STRONG AS 87 KT... AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 100 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. IT APPEARS THAT WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UP UNTIL LANDFALL... AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL. RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LESS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE SIZE OF THE EYE AND A LACK OF TIME FOR IT TO CONTRACT BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER... SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT REVEAL ANY OBVIOUS SIGNS THAT THE SHEAR IS YET STRONG ENOUGH TO REVERSE THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND...AND IT MIGHT NOT INCREASE IN TIME TO INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS CATEGORY TWO...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 23.5N 84.9W 90 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 24.8N 83.2W 95 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 27.6N 79.3W 75 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 32.2N 74.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 38.5N 68.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 53.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/1800Z 50.0N 42.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT84 KNHC 232113 *** TCVAT4 WILMA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .HURRICANE WILMA FLC011-015-021-027-071-086-087-099-115-AMZ630-650-651-670-671-GMZ031- 033-656-657-676-853-856-873-876-240300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ FLC009-061-085-111-AMZ550-555-570-575-240300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ FLC017-029-053-057-075-081-101-103-GMZ755-775-830-850-870-240300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W $$ FLC127-240300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-AMZ452-454-472-474-240300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ AMZ610-240300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-240300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...EYW...TBW...TAE...MLB...MFL... ** WTUS82 KTBW 232115 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-240030- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 515 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...HURRICANE WILMA GRADUALLY ACCELERATING TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND ON TRACK FOR A MORNING LANDFALL... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL ROTATION COMBINES WITH THE APPROACH OF FEEDER BANDS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM CITRUS COUNTY SOUTHWARD UNTIL 1 AM. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE AFTER 6 PM IN MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY METRO AREA TO LAKELAND AND POINTS SOUTH. ANY TORNADOES WILL BE FAST MOVING...BUT COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS IN THE F-1 RANGE...73 TO 112 MPH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK... PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...SUMTER AND LEVY COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS AND 345 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA. WILMA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 11 MPH...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WILL BEGIN LATER THIS EVENING. ...WIND IMPACTS... DANGEROUS WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN LEE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD...AND BETWEEN 11 PM AND 2 AM SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS. THE LATEST TRACK WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ONSHORE IN LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS IN SQUALLS BY 3 AM. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 TO 80 MPH...IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM. BECAUSE WILMA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST HIGH CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH WHILE ACCELERATING INLAND...GUSTS TO 100 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SQUALLS. FARTHER NORTH IN THE HURRICANE AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD ARRIVE BY 4 AM...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS...50 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 75 TO 85 MPH...BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM...PERHAPS UP TO 11 AM IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY. IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND POINTS NORTH THROUGH HERNANDO COUNTY... TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND OR SOON AFTER 5 AM...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS...40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH...EXPECTED BETWEEN 7 AND 11 AM. IMPACTS FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY INCLUDE: POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. OTHERS WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WALLS...AND WINDOWS...AND WILL LIKELY BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE PARTIAL WALL AND ROOF FAILURE...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. MOST LANAI SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL HAVE DAMAGE...SOME WILL BE DESTROYED. UNSECURED LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND PERHAPS INJURY. MANY AREAS WILL HAVE POWER OUTAGES...HUNDREDS OF WIRES WILL FALL... TRANSFORMERS WILL POP...AND SOME POWER POLES WILL BE PULLED DOWN. ROTTING LARGE TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED GROUND. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP...AND MODERATE DAMAGE IS EXPECTED IN CITRUS ORCHARDS. UP TO ONE HALF OF NEWLY PLANTED CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED. IMPACTS FOR SARASOTA...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...AND HARDEE COUNTY INCLUDE: OLDER MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE. SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES ...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. MANY LANAI SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL BE DAMAGED. UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS. MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED. DOZENS OF PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO CITRUS ORCHARDS AND NEWLY PLANTED LOWLAND CROPS. IMPACTS FOR THE TAMPA BAY AND LAKELAND AREAS INCLUDE: MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES. POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES MAY RECEIVE SOME WALL DAMAGE AND PARTIAL ROOF REMOVAL. A FEW HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES AND SIDING. A FEW POOL CAGES AND LANAI SCREENS WILL BE DAMAGED. UNSECURED LIGHT WEIGHT ITEMS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. SOME ELECTRICAL WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED. SOME ROTTING SMALL TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...AND ROTTEN LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. NUMEROUS SMALL TWIGS WILL SEPARATE FROM TREES. A FEW PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. ...SURGE IMPACTS... TIDES CONTINUE RUNNING AROUND A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING POINTS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. HOWEVER...AS WILMA APPROACHES...TIDES SHOULD RISE AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL...INCLUDING LOCATIONS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK. THUS...TIDAL DEPARTURES MAY RANGE UP TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...AND UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE...BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY AND EVACUATE WATER FROM MANY OF THESE AREAS. TIDES MAY RISE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WEST FACING BEACHES OF LEE COUNTY...INCLUDING BONITA BEACH...FORT MYERS BEACH...AND THE NORTH END OF SANIBEL AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PINE ISLAND. STORM TIDES COULD REACH 4 FEET OR HIGHER...WHICH MAY PRODUCE RUN UP...OVERWASH...OR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING. PLEASE NOTE THAT ANY SLIGHT SHIFT UP THE COAST WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR MINOR TO MODERATE STORM SURGE FLOODING IN LEE COUNTY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HURRICANE WILMA GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HURRICANE WILMA OVERSPREAD THE AREA. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 INCH IN LEVY COUNTY...1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN HEAVIER BANDS FROM TAMPA TO LAKELAND AND POINTS NORTH...2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES ELSEWHERE NORTH OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 6 INCHES IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE MANATEE RIVER LATE MONDAY...AND ON THE PEACE AND LITTLE MANATEE RIVERS BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 815 PM EDT THIS EVENING. $$ GOLDSMITH ** WTUS82 KTAE 232128 *** HLSTAE FLZ034-240130- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 528 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...PARTICULARLY DIXIE COUNTY. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER IN APALACHEE BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED THIS EVENING AND MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVEN THOUGH WILMA IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD... WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AS MUCH AS 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. IN PREPARATION FOR THESE WINDS...RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE IN ANY OUTDOOR FURNITURE OR OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS...AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ALONG THE DIXIE COUNTY COAST...AS ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE PRIMARILY OFFSHORE WINDS. ...WIND IMPACTS... IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WARNED AREA WOULD BE PRIMARILY FROM A FEW DOWNED TREES AND TREE LIMBS...WHICH COULD CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND ROAD HAZARDS...AND ALSO DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES ON WHICH THEY FALL. MINOR WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES...AND NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS COULD BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED. LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS LIGHT PATIO FURNITURE OR TRASH CANS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND. SOME CURRENT AREA WIND CONDITIONS AS OF 5 PM EDT ARE AS FOLLOWS: CROSS CITY: E AT 8 MPH. PERRY: NE AT 9 MPH. KEATON BEACH: NE AT 10 GUSTING TO 14 MPH. CEDAR KEY: NE AT 15 GUSTING TO 19 MPH. APALACHICOLA BUOY: NE AT 24 GUSTING TO 30 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED RAPID MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE WILMA...AND THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WILL BE LOCATED ON THE GENERALLY DRIER NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STORM...NO HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOOD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY NOT EXCEED ONE INCH. ...TORNADO THREAT... DUE TO THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...RIP CURRENTS... ALONG WITH THE HIGH SURF THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. EVERYONE...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS...SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SURF. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 930 PM EDT. $$ GODSEY ** WTCA44 TJSJ 232132 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 34 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA UN POCO MAS FUERTE Y ACELERANDO HACIA EL NORESTE HACIA FLORIDA... ...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL IMPACTANDO EL OESTE DE CUBA Y ACERCANDOSE A LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS Y FLORIDA BAY...A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY HACIA EL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE TITUSVILLE HACIA EL SUR...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA STEINHATCHEE RIVER...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE TITUSVILLE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO DESCONTINUO TODOS LOS AVISOS PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE CIUDAD HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PROVINCIA DE MATANZAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE...INCLUYENDO ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...Y NEW PROVIDENCE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.9 OESTE... COMO A 210 MILLAS...340 KILOMETROS AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA...O COMO A 295 MILLAS...475 KM...AL SUROESTE DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORESTE AUMENTANDO GRADUALMENTE SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION ESTA NOCHE Y EL LUNES. EN ESTA TRAYEVTORIA EL CENTRO DE WILMA ESTARA CERCA DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA TEMPRANO EL LUNES EN LA MANANA. SIN EMBARGO WILMA ES UN EXTENSO SISTEMA Y VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PODRIAN ALCANZAR LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE...MUCHO ANTES DE LA LLEGADA DEL CENTRO. DATA DE LOS AVIONES CAZAHURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y DE NOAA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO Y ESTAN AHORA CERCA DE 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES AHORA UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL LUNES Y WILMA PODRIA ESTAR CERCA DE UN HURACAN CATEGORIA MIENTRAS SE ACERCA A LA COSTA SUROESTE DE LA FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS... 370 KILOMETROS. LA BOYA DE NOAA 42056 EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...COMO A 230 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DEL CENTRO DE WILMA... RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA DE 39 MPH. VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS TAMBIEN CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HAN SIDO INFORMADOS EN LA HABAVA CUBA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 959 MILIBARAS...28.32 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 9 A 17 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE CERCA Y AL SUR DE DONDE EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRE A TIERRA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 8 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EN FLORIDA BAY...ASI COMO EN EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS HASTA EL LUNES A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON TOTALES MAXIMOS AISLADOS ACERCANDOSE A LAS 50 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS...HASTA EL MARTES SE ESPERA QUE SEAN DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS... CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE ALREDEDOR DE 12 PULGADAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA CONTINUARAN AFECTANDO SECTORES DEL NORESTE DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DESDE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HACIA EL NORTE ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL LUNES. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL CENTRO Y EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE Y EL LUNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...23.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 959 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS82 KJAX 232135 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-240400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 535 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR NASSAU...DUVAL...ST. JOHNS... AND FLAGLER COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL... ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FROM NASSAU COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. WILMA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST EARLY MONDAY...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHILE THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM WILMA ARE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER SOUTH... ANY NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE PROJECTED COURSE OF WILMA COULD RESULT IN WARNINGS BEING REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND THE LARGE WIND FIELD AROUND WILMA WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE ADJACENT COASTAL COUNTIES FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND SOUTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH AND BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES. MARINERS AND COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BEACH EROSION AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ON MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES. SURF WILL ALSO RAPIDLY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY. LOCAL INLETS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND INLAND ESTUARIES WILL LIKELY SEE A RISE IN WATER LEVELS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE APPROACH OF WILMA WILL INCREASE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES FARTHER NORTH. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE WINDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. COASTAL RESIDENTS MAY WANT TO MAKE PLANS TO SECURE VULNERABLE OBJECTS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM EDT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE. $$ LETRO ** WTUS82 KMLB 232138 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 240400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 535 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...HURRICANE WILMA BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE TOWARD FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... WILMA IS NOW A LITTLE STRONGER AND BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE TOWARD FLORIDA. ALSO...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE...WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN BREVARD...VOLUSIA...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN...INDIAN RIVER... OKEECHOBEE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT PIERCE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY AND ACCELERATE VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. IMPLEMENTATION OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM PLANS AND ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY MUST BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION BY SUNDOWN. IF TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY TAKE THEM SERIOUSLY. IN THE EVENT OF A TORNADO...OR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WITH THE INNER RAINBANDS OF WILMA...THE SAFEST PLACE IS IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BLOCK HOME AWAY FROM WINDOWS. FOR THOSE LIVING IN MANUFACTURED HOMES...CHECK WITH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGERS FOR SHELTER LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL TIME EARLY THIS EVENING TO SAFELY MOVE TO SHELTERS. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE GREATEST THREAT FROM WILMA ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELD IS VERY LARGE AND THEREFORE WILL ARRIVE WELL BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE CORE WINDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS OKEECHOBEE... OSCEOLA...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS BREVARD...ORANGE...LAKE... SEMINOLE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES STARTING BEFORE 8 AM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING OKEECHOBEE... MARTIN...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE... AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES BY MID MORNING. BECAUSE THE OF THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA...WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE RIGHT. IT IS LIKELY THAT A BAND OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 100 MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. THESE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIALS...AS WELL AS EXPOSED DOORS AND WINDOWS. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO MOBILE HOMES THAT HAPPEN TO BE IN THE PATH OF THE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WILL OCCUR FROM DOWNED TREES AND LARGE SIGNS. A FEW ROADS MAY BECOME BLOCKED DUE TO SOME LARGE DEBRIS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MAIN WIND SWATH OF THE CORE WINDS. THE LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST WIND IMPACT WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. BY THAT TIME WILMA WILL BE MOVING VERY FAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED SOUTHWARD BEHIND WILMA AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF STRONG AND LONGER-LIVED TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY. THE GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES WILL BE IN OUTER RAINBANDS PRECEDING WILMA LATER THIS EVENING AND IN THE INNER RAINBANDS NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF WILMA AS IT RAPIDLY CROSSES THE PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY. TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING. LATE SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE PRODUCED KILLER TORNADOES IN THE PAST. THEREFORE...TAKE TORNADO WARNINGS SERIOUSLY. STRONG TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN VICINITY OF THE KEYS TODAY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. BECAUSE WILMA WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE... WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES MAY OCCUR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS OUTER RAINBANDS FROM WILMA LIFT NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTERSECT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING MAINLY FROM ORLANDO SOUTHWARD AS THE CORE OF HURRICANE WILMA MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR... IT APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...OR IN AN AREA THAT IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...COMPLETE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY BY THIS EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA AND THE MOVEMENT OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC...HIGH IMPACT STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A STORM TIDE OF PERHAPS 3 OR 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE BEFORE AND AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MID DAY MONDAY...NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES OFFSHORE. EXTREMELY ROUGH SURF...BEACH EROSION...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES AS WILMA MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. ...MARINE IMPACTS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM FOR MARINERS DUE TO ITS RAPID APPROACH AND ACCELERATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME HAZARDOUS THIS EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS AND THEN BECOME EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ON MONDAY. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY NWS MELBOURNE BY MIDNIGHT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON WILMA LOCAL INFO. $$ BCH ** WTNT44 KNHC 232149 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...CORRECTED SECOND PARAGRAPH...RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAN GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION... WILMA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD HEADING...WITH CURRENT SPEED OF ABOUT 12 KT...AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE MOVING TWICE AS FAST BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES IS PROGRESSING TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING... AND IT SHOULD REACH THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. MEANWHILE AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DEEPEN AND ENHANCE THE WESTERLIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BRINGING WILMA OVER FLORIDA. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN EVEN TIGHTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE THE CENTER OF WILMA TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE TIMING. HOWEVER... THE SPEED OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. AS A RESULT... THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON WHERE WILMA WILL GO...IT REMAINS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD... AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN PROVIDING DATA FROM WILMA THIS AFTERNOON... AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FALLING... MOST RECENTLY TO 959 MB. GIVEN THE LOWERING PRESSURE... SFMR WINDS AS STRONG AS 87 KT... AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 100 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. IT APPEARS THAT WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UP UNTIL LANDFALL... AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL. RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE SIZE OF THE EYE AND A LACK OF TIME FOR IT TO CONTRACT BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER... SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT REVEAL ANY OBVIOUS SIGNS THAT THE SHEAR IS YET STRONG ENOUGH TO REVERSE THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND...AND IT MIGHT NOT INCREASE IN TIME TO INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS CATEGORY TWO...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 23.5N 84.9W 90 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 24.8N 83.2W 95 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 27.6N 79.3W 75 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 32.2N 74.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 38.5N 68.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 53.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/1800Z 50.0N 42.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 232150 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-240030- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 545 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST...ABOUT 210 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 959 MB...OR 28.32 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RELEASED A SCHEDULE TO TERMINATE THE EVACUATION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO HURRICANE WILMA. EVACUATIONS ENDED IN THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY WEST AS OF 5 PM. EVACUATIONS ARE TO END AT 6 PM IN THE MIDDLE KEYS INCLUDING MARATHON...AND AT 7 PM IN THE UPPER KEYS INCLUDING ISLAMORADA...KEY LARGO...OCEAN REEF...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD SEEK SAFE AND STURDY SHELTER. RESIDENTS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED AND WHO DO NOT FEEL SAFE IN THEIR HOMES...ESPECIALLY IN MOBILE HOMES...CAN GO TO A REFUGE OF LAST RESORT AS FOLLOWS...KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...CROWNE PLAZA LA CONCHA KEY WEST 403 DUVAL STREET...SUGARLOAF SCHOOL MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MILE MARKER 48...CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL MILE MARKER 90...SHERATON KEY LARGO BEACH RESORT MILE MARKER 98 KEY LARGO...AND MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT MILE MARKER 103 KEY LARGO. OFFICIALS EMPHASIZE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT WILL NOT BE MANNED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS...AND THERE WILL BE NO SUPPLIES FOR EVACUEES. EVACUEES MUST BRING THEIR OWN WATER...BEDDING...AND SUPPLIES. NO PETS ARE PERMITTED AT REFUGES OF LAST RESORT. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND COURTS ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOL DAYTIME CUSTODIANS SHOULD REPORT TUESDAY. ALL CAMPUSES OF FLORIDA KEYS COMMUNITY COLLEGE ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY. THE CITY OF KEY WEST WILL ENACT A CURFEW FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A VOLUNTARY CURFEW ON ALCOHOL SALES AT LOCAL BARS. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS BY LATE THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS AND DRIVING IS NO LONGER RECOMMENDED. RESIDENTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS HAVE JUST A FEW HOURS LEFT FOR EVACUATION. CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS... ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. AS WILMA PASSES JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE KEYS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE INDICATED ON THE GULF SIDE AND THE BAY SIDE. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR...AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK BRIDGE OVER ROUTE 1. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN OUTER RAINBANDS ARE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH HURRICANE WILMA. A VIOLENT WATERSPOUT WAS SPOTTED 5 NM WEST OF KEY WEST AT 4 PM. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOS WILL OCCUR FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SEVERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU LIVE IN A HIGHLY FLOOD-PRONE AREA TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FUTTERMAN/DEVANAS ** WTUS82 KEYW 232217 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-240030- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 545 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST...ABOUT 210 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 959 MB...OR 28.32 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RELEASED A SCHEDULE TO TERMINATE THE EVACUATION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO HURRICANE WILMA. EVACUATIONS ENDED IN THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY WEST AS OF 5 PM. EVACUATIONS ARE TO END AT 6 PM IN THE MIDDLE KEYS INCLUDING MARATHON...AND AT 7 PM IN THE UPPER KEYS INCLUDING ISLAMORADA...KEY LARGO...OCEAN REEF...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD SEEK SAFE AND STURDY SHELTER. RESIDENTS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED AND WHO DO NOT FEEL SAFE IN THEIR HOMES...ESPECIALLY IN MOBILE HOMES...CAN GO TO A REFUGE OF LAST RESORT AS FOLLOWS...KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...CROWNE PLAZA LA CONCHA KEY WEST 403 DUVAL STREET...SUGARLOAF SCHOOL MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MILE MARKER 48...CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL MILE MARKER 90...SHERATON KEY LARGO BEACH RESORT MILE MARKER 98 KEY LARGO...AND MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT MILE MARKER 103 KEY LARGO. OFFICIALS EMPHASIZE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT WILL NOT BE MANNED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS...AND THERE WILL BE NO SUPPLIES FOR EVACUEES. EVACUEES MUST BRING THEIR OWN WATER...BEDDING...AND SUPPLIES. NO PETS ARE PERMITTED AT REFUGES OF LAST RESORT. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND COURTS ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOL DAYTIME CUSTODIANS SHOULD REPORT TUESDAY. ALL CAMPUSES OF FLORIDA KEYS COMMUNITY COLLEGE ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY. THE CITY OF KEY WEST WILL ENACT A CURFEW FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A VOLUNTARY CURFEW ON ALCOHOL SALES AT LOCAL BARS. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS BY LATE THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS AND DRIVING IS NO LONGER RECOMMENDED. RESIDENTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS HAVE JUST A FEW HOURS LEFT FOR EVACUATION. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. AS WILMA PASSES JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE KEYS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE INDICATED ON THE GULF SIDE AND THE BAY SIDE. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR...AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK BRIDGE OVER ROUTE 1. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN OUTER RAINBANDS ARE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH HURRICANE WILMA. A VIOLENT WATERSPOUT WAS SPOTTED 5 NM WEST OF KEY WEST AT 4 PM. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOS WILL OCCUR FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SEVERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU LIVE IN A HIGHLY FLOOD-PRONE AREA TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FUTTERMAN/DEVANAS ** WTUS82 KMFL 232236 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-240430- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 630 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA ACCELERATING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS UPDATED PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS UPDATED LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS UPDATED LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWEST COAST EARLY MONDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN AFFECTING THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK OF WILMA HAS REMAINED CONSTANT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...PEOPLE ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS REGARDLESS OF THE WHAT THE EVENTUAL TRACK ENDS UP BEING. SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD RUSH THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS NOW. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST SOMEWHERE IN COLLIER COUNTY. A STORM SURGE OF 13 TO 17 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF CAPE ROMANO TO CAPE SABLE INCLUDING EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE. A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 18 FEET IS EXPECTED AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF LOCAL ACCESS ROADS TO MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING STATE ROADS 92...951...953 AND 29 AND LARGE PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL U.S. HIGHWAY 41. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST...A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM JUST SOUTH OF NAPLES TO MARCO ISLAND. THESE VALUES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK WHICH CAN STILL CHANGE BY AS MUCH AS 30 MILES. THEREFORE...IF YOU BELIEVE YOUR LOCATION IS POSSIBLY PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO EVACUATE. A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLAMINGO AREA MID MORNING MONDAY. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...PARTICULARLY BISCAYNE BAY... A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN CANALS AND WATERWAYS. SOUTH WINDS WILL PILE SOME WATER INTO THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY CAUSING SOME FLOODING OF CAUSEWAYS AND LOW LYING BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME FROM EARLY TO MID MORNING MONDAY. OVER BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTS...STORM TIDES OF 2 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS IS EXPECTED FROM EARLY MORNING TO AROUND NOON MONDAY OVER AREAS INSIDE THE DIKE FROM LAKEPORT TO CLEWISTON...WITH 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS ELSEWHERE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE SOUTH TO LAKEPORT...AND FROM CLEWISTON THROUGH PORT MAYACA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION INCLUDING TORRY...KREAMER AND RITTA ISLANDS AND SOME ACCESS ROADS. THE LAKE LEVEL ON SATURDAY WAS 15.58 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER COLLIER COUNTY THIS EVENING...REACHING MIAMI- DADE COUNTY AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN HOURS. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER THAN 74 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY COASTS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING METRO MIAMI-DADE AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AROUND DAWN MONDAY...AND THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH METRO AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...GENERALLY A FEW HOURS. THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN MOST AREAS DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON...AND IN METRO PALM BEACH AND BROWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. MAJOR WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...WITH DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIAL...DOORS...AND WINDOWS OF BUILDINGS. SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO LIKELY. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LARGE TREES WILL LIKELY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PERSONS MUST NOT DRIVE OR WALK AROUND IN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. SEVERAL SOUTH FLORIDA DEATHS OCCURRED IN KATRINA WHEN PEOPLE DECIDED TO WALK AROUND TO WATCH TREES FALL IN STRONG WINDS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS AN 80 TO 100 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...RANGES FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST FROM NAPLES SOUTHWARD...35 TO 45 PERCENT ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF A BONITA BEACH TO CLEWISTON TO JUPITER LINE...AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRIMARILY OVER GLADES COUNTY. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH THIS EVENING...BECOMING VERY ROUGH LATER TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING AROUND NOON MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND MIDDAY AND NORTHERN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SUBSIDING OVER ALL ATLANTIC WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING. MARINERS SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS. BE SURE TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH...WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. RAIN BANDS MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES WILL BE THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF WILMA. TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. THE RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. REMEMBER THAT TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND WITH LITTLE WARNING...ESPECIALLY THOSE INDUCED FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES. PLEASE MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK PROTECTIVE ACTION IF A TORNADO IS SIGHTED OR A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ MOLLEDA ** WTUS82 KEYW 232334 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-240030- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 735 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST...ABOUT 210 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 959 MB...OR 28.32 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RELEASED A SCHEDULE TO TERMINATE THE EVACUATION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO HURRICANE WILMA. EVACUATIONS ENDED IN THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY WEST AS OF 5 PM. EVACUATIONS ARE TO END AT 6 PM IN THE MIDDLE KEYS INCLUDING MARATHON...AND AT 7 PM IN THE UPPER KEYS INCLUDING ISLAMORADA...KEY LARGO...OCEAN REEF...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD SEEK SAFE AND STURDY SHELTER. RESIDENTS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED AND WHO DO NOT FEEL SAFE IN THEIR HOMES...ESPECIALLY IN MOBILE HOMES...CAN GO TO A REFUGE OF LAST RESORT AS FOLLOWS...KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF SCHOOL MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MILE MARKER 48...CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL MILE MARKER 90...SHERATON KEY LARGO BEACH RESORT MILE MARKER 98 KEY LARGO...AND MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT MILE MARKER 103 KEY LARGO. EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY...THE CROWNE LA CONCHA HOTEL IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. OFFICIALS EMPHASIZE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT WILL NOT BE MANNED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS...AND THERE WILL BE NO SUPPLIES FOR EVACUEES. EVACUEES MUST BRING THEIR OWN WATER...BEDDING...AND SUPPLIES. NO PETS ARE PERMITTED AT REFUGES OF LAST RESORT. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND COURTS ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOL DAYTIME CUSTODIANS SHOULD REPORT TUESDAY. ALL CAMPUSES OF FLORIDA KEYS COMMUNITY COLLEGE ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY. THE CITY OF KEY WEST WILL ENACT A CURFEW FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A VOLUNTARY CURFEW ON ALCOHOL SALES AT LOCAL BARS. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS BY LATE THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS AND DRIVING IS NO LONGER RECOMMENDED. RESIDENTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS HAVE JUST A FEW HOURS LEFT FOR EVACUATION. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. AS WILMA PASSES JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE KEYS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE INDICATED ON THE GULF SIDE AND THE BAY SIDE. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR...AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK BRIDGE OVER ROUTE 1. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN OUTER RAINBANDS ARE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH HURRICANE WILMA. A VIOLENT WATERSPOUT WAS SPOTTED 5 NM WEST OF KEY WEST AT 4 PM. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOS WILL OCCUR FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SEVERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU LIVE IN A HIGHLY FLOOD-PRONE AREA TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FUTTERMAN/DEVANAS ** WTNT34 KNHC 232354 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS IT GRADUALLY ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IMPACTING WESTERN CUBA AND APPROACHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM CDT...0000Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT... NOAA DOPPLER RADARS... AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 275 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 225 MILES... 365 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION... WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WILMA IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WELL BEFORE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL. DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY... AND WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE... STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND GUST TO 85 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN HAVANA CUBA... AND A GUST TO 55 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA... AND THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS BY MIDNIGHT... AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE KEYS AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 17 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE KEYS... THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB. HOURLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATES WILL BE ISSUED BEGINNING AT 9 PM EDT. THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$