** WTUS82 KTBW 231200 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-231530- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 800 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA IS BACK OVER WATER...NOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS... HILLSBOROUGH...POLK... PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA AND 390 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. WILMA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NO WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TODAY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTLINE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO A GUSTY NORTHERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ...SURGE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING POINTS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. LEE AND PERHAPS CHARLOTTE COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE OVERWASH AND SOME TIDAL FLOODING EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA APPROACHES. NORTH OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE AN OUTGOING TIDE WHICH MAY EXPOSE SANDBARS AND OTHER FEATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLETS...BAYS... AND HARBORS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... TODAY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM FEEDER BANDS WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MORE EXTENSIVE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY... RAINFALL MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD MAY PRODUCE A BIT MORE MINOR FLOODING. EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES OR HIGHER...MAINLY SOUTH OF A TAMPA BAY TO POLK COUNTY LINE. RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF WILMA ACROSS THE REGION. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...35 TO 60 KNOTS... TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE THREAT FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...64 KNOTS...IS GREATEST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS NOT EXPECTED FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY A LOW THREAT SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY IS EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STABLE CONDITIONS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM WHERE TROPICAL AIR IS MOST ABUNDANT. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 11 AM TODAY. $$ RD ** WTCA45 TJSJ 231203 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...ALPHA TOCO TIERRA CERCA DEL PUEBLO DE BARAHONA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA LINEA COSTERA DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. KAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE Y LAS OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE ALFA TOCO TIERRA CERCA DEL PUEBLO DE BARAHONA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 71.4 OESTE O COMO A 25 MILLAS... 35 KM...OESTE-NOROESTE DE LA CIUDAD DE BARAHONA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ALPHA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HASTA QUE TOQUE TIERRA EN LA PROXIMA HORA APROXIMADAMENTE. SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NOR NOROESTE DURANTE LAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO RAPIDO ...Y PODRIA DISIPARSE SOBRE EL TERRENO MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KM DEL CENTRO... 75 KM DEL CENTRO. UNA ESTACION METEOROLOGICA EN LA CIUDAD DE BARAHONA INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE ALPHA SE ACERQUE. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENACEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...18.4 NORTE...71.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EXPEDIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTSR20 WSSS 230600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 231203 CCA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...ALPHA TOCO TIERRA CERCA DEL PUEBLO DE BARAHONA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA LINEA COSTERA DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. KAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE Y LAS OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE ALFA TOCO TIERRA CERCA DEL PUEBLO DE BARAHONA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 71.4 OESTE O COMO A 25 MILLAS... 35 KM...OESTE-NOROESTE DE LA CIUDAD DE BARAHONA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ALPHA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HASTA QUE TOQUE TIERRA EN LA PROXIMA HORA APROXIMADAMENTE. SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NOR NOROESTE DURANTE LAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO RAPIDO ...Y PODRIA DISIPARSE SOBRE EL TERRENO MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KM DEL CENTRO... 75 KM DEL CENTRO. UNA ESTACION METEOROLOGICA EN LA CIUDAD DE BARAHONA INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE ALPHA SE ACERQUE. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENACEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...18.4 NORTE...71.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EXPEDIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTCA45 TJSJ 231205 CCA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...ALPHA TOCO TIERRA CERCA DEL PUEBLO DE BARAHONA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA LINEA COSTERA DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. KAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE Y LAS OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE ALFA TOCO TIERRA CERCA DEL PUEBLO DE BARAHONA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 71.4 OESTE O COMO A 25 MILLAS... 35 KM...OESTE-NOROESTE DE LA CIUDAD DE BARAHONA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ALPHA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HASTA QUE TOQUE TIERRA EN LA PROXIMA HORA APROXIMADAMENTE. SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NOR NOROESTE DURANTE LAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO RAPIDO ...Y PODRIA DISIPARSE SOBRE EL TERRENO MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KM DEL CENTRO... 75 KM DEL CENTRO. UNA ESTACION METEOROLOGICA EN LA CIUDAD DE BARAHONA INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE ALPHA SE ACERQUE. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENACEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...18.4 NORTE...71.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EXPEDIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTUS82 KEYW 231221 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-231530- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 815 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS ALSO ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST...WHICH WAS ABOUT 350 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. FORWARD SPEED WILL INCREASE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 961 MB...OR 28.38 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RUSH YOUR PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION NOW. A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN. THERE WILL BE NO SHELTERS OPEN IN THE KEYS. THE AUTHORITIES RECOMMEND THAT YOU SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST AIRPORT IS CLOSED. MARATHON AIRPORT IS SCHEDULED TO CLOSE AT NOON TODAY. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE HAS SCHEDULED ONE MORE PAID BUS DEPARTING KEY WEST TO MIAMI AT 845 AM TODAY. J G T BUS SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ITS REGULARLY SCHEDULED SERVICE FROM MARATHON TO KEY LARGO. J G T WILL ALSO PROVIDE SERVICES FROM KEY WEST TO MARATHON STARTING AT 900 AM AND CONTINUING AS LONG AS IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THE PICKUP POINT IN KEY WEST IS THE SEARSTOWN SHOPPING CENTER. THIS BUS WILL STOP TO PICK UP EVACUEES ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE OF ROUTE 1...JUST SIGNAL THE DRIVER. EVACUEES WILL BE TRANSFERED TO ANOTHER BUS AT MARATHON AND TAKEN TO THE F I U SHELTER. THIS SERVICE IS FREE TO ANYONE EVACUATING THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY CALL MONROE COUNTY HOTLINE AT 1-800-955-5504...OR IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY HOTLINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL THROUGH THE MORNING. WE EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN HIGHER GUSTS IN SHOWERS. USE EXTRA CARE ON OUR ELEVATED BRIDGES. WE EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. IF WILMA PASSES JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE KEYS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. VESSELS SHOULD BE TIED OFF WITH THIS IN MIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ON ATLANTIC SIDES OF ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING MONDAY MORNING...STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF AND BAY SIDES OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR...AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK BRIDGE OVER ROUTE 1 IN TAVERNIER. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS...EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR TORNADO THREATS WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM/JR ** WTCA44 TJSJ 231224 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 32A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA MOVIENDOSE UN POCO MAS RAPIDO HACIA EL NORTE PERO TODAVIA NO SE ESTA INTENSIFICANDO... ...NUEVOS AVISOS PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS Y FLORIDA BAY...A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY HACIA EL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE TITUSVILLE AL SUR...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA STEINHATCHEE RIVER DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL NORTE DE TITUSVILLE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS...Y PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA PROGRESO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISON DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE CIUDAD HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PROVINCIA DE MATANZAS. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...Y NEW PROVIDENCE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 7 AM CDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.1 OESTE... COMO A 90 MILLAS...145 KILOMETROS AL NOR-NORESTE DE CANCUN MEXICO...Y COMO A 315 MILLAS... 505 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. LA BOYA DE LA NOAA 42056...LOCALIZADA EN EL MAR CARIBE NOROCCIDENTAL COMO A 185 MILLAS... 295 KM... SUR-SURESTE DEL CENTRO DE WILMA RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DE 47 MPH... 76 KM/HR. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA UNIDAD DE LA FUERZA AEREA REPORTO UNA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA DE 961 MILIBARAS...28.38 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 8 A 13 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE Y CERCA Y AL SUR DE DONDE EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRE A TIERRA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 8 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EN FLORIDA BAY...ASI COMO EN EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA A LO LARGO DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS DEBEN DISMINUIR A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE WILMA SE ALEJA. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PARTE NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON TOTALES MAXIMOS AISLADOS ACERCANDOSE A LAS 50 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS SE ESPERA QUE SEA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS... CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE ALREDEDOR DE 12 PULGADAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA CONTINUAN PROPAGANDOSE HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS PODRIAN AFECTAR A PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO ESTA NOCHE Y EL DOMINGO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 AM CDT...22.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 961 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM CDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR KNABB ** WTUS82 KJAX 231246 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-231530- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 845 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL... ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WILMA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST EARLY MONDAY AS A LARGE HURRICANE...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGE WIND FIELD AROUND WILMA WILL POSSIBLY BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL COUNTIES FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND SOUTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH AND BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES. MARINERS AND COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO REMAIN IN PORT BY LATE SUNDAY UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HIGHLY POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES. SURF WILL ALSO RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY. LOCAL INLETS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND INLAND ESTUARIES WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A RISE IN WATER LEVELS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE APPROACH OF WILMA WILL INCREASE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA AND MAY WISH TO MAKE PLANS TO SECURE VULNERABLE OBJECTS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE. $$ ECZ/ABE ** WTUS82 KJAX 231346 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-231600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 946 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH AND IS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE INLAND PORTIONS OF NASSAU...DUVAL...ST. JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL... ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA INCLUDING THE INLAND SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WILMA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST EARLY MONDAY AS A LARGE HURRICANE...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGE WIND FIELD AROUND WILMA WILL POSSIBLY BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL COUNTIES FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND SOUTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH AND BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES. MARINERS AND COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO REMAIN IN PORT BY LATE SUNDAY UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HIGHLY POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES. SURF WILL ALSO RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY. LOCAL INLETS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND INLAND ESTUARIES WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A RISE IN WATER LEVELS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE APPROACH OF WILMA WILL INCREASE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA AND MAY WISH TO MAKE PLANS TO SECURE VULNERABLE OBJECTS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE. $$ LETRO/ENYEDI ** WTUS82 KMFL 231352 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-231600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 951 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATED SURGE INFORMATION UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS UPDATED WIND EFFECTS UPDATED COUNTY PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD RUSH THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO COMPLETION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT TODAY. SHELTERS ARE OPEN. ADDITIONAL EVACUATION ORDERS MAY BE ISSUED TODAY AS THE FORECAST FOR WILMA BECOMES MORE CLEAR. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY. IN HENDRY COUNTY...COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS STRONGLY URGE A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM TODAY. IN GLADES COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOMES AND LOW LYING AREAS IS IN EFFECT. SHELTERS OPEN AT NOON TODAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN AT NOON TODAY. SHELTERS ARE OPEN. COUNTY GOVERNMENT OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY AND THE COUNTY URGES BUSINESSES IN BROWARD TO CLOSE FOR THE SAFETY OF THEIR EMPLOYEES. A BRIDGE LOCKDOWN WILL OCCUR AT 5 PM EDT. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN SUB-STANDARD HOUSING...LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL BEGIN AT 1 PM EDT TODAY. SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 10 AM EDT. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1 PM EDT. IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS ON EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA AS A CATEGORY TWO OR ONE HURRICANE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST SOMEWHERE IN COLLIER COUNTY. A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 8 TO 13 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL MID MORNING MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF LOCAL ACCESS ROADS TO MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING STATE ROADS 92...951...953 AND 29 AND LARGE PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL U.S. HIGHWAY 41. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF LARGE PARTS OF NAPLES ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL AND MARCO ISLAND IS EXPECTED. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT CONCENTRATE ON THE EXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER BECAUSE THE ERROR INHERENT 24 HOURS AWAY FROM LANDFALL CAN BE AS MUCH AS 70 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF COLLIER COUNTY AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. IF YOU BELIEVE YOUR LOCATION IS POSSIBLY PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...THE BEST ACTION IS TO EVACUATE. A STORM TIDE AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED MID MORNING MONDAY IN THE TEN THOUSAND ISLANDS OF EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK. A STORM TIDE OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLAMINGO AREA MID MORNING MONDAY AND UP TO 10 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF CAPE SABLE. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INCLUDING MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES...A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED MID MORNING MONDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL PILE SOME WATER INTO THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY CAUSING SOME FLOODING OF CAUSEWAYS AND LOW LYING BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEE HOURS MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM TIDE OF 18 TO 20 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHICH WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS...IS EXPECTED WITH WILMA MID MORNING TO AROUND NOON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE WILL BE OCCURRING FROM THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK EAST TO BELLE GLADE AND SOUTH BAY INCLUDING CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION INCLUDING TORRY...KREAMER AND RITTA ISLANDS AND SOME ACCESS ROADS. THE LAKE LEVEL ON SATURDAY WAS 15.58 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER COLLIER COUNTY THIS EVENING...REACHING METRO MIAMI-DADE AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY METRO AREAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER THAN 74 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY...REACHING METRO MIAMI-DADE AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION SHORTLY AFTER DAWN AND THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH METRO AREAS MID MORNING ON MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...GENERALLY A FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND IN METRO PALM BEACH AND BROWARD BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO LIKELY. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PERSONS MUST NOT DRIVE OR WALK AROUND IN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. SEVERAL SOUTH FLORIDA DEATHS OCCURRED IN KATRINA WHEN PEOPLE DECIDED TO WALK AROUND TO WATCH TREES FALL IN STRONG WINDS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A 70 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS FROM 40 TO 55 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...IS FROM 10 TO 25 PERCENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THIS EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 16 FEET OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REACH HURRICANE FORCE...64 KNOTS...IN THE GULF WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH TODAY...BECOMING VERY ROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING AROUND NOON MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING MID MORNING MONDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS WILMA RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MARINERS SHOULD RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION FOR THE PROTECTION OF MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS. BE SURE TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IS COLLIER COUNTY...PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS... PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES WILL BE THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF WILMA. THE MOST DANGEROUS TIME FOR TORNADOES WILL BE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NOON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 12 NOON. $$ PFOST ** WTNT45 KNHC 231436 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOST LIKELY HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 75 N MI FROM THE POSITION GIVEN IN THE ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM HAITI. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HISTORICALLY...IT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. BECAUSE THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE LOW SHEAR...WE ARE SHOWING A VERY MODEST STRENGTHENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BACK OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE WE DO NOT EXACTLY THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...BUT ALPHA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AND ALPHA IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF WILMA IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 19.2N 72.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 21.0N 73.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 29.0N 73.5W 30 KT...ABSORBED BY WILMA 48HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 231436 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...ALPHA WEAKENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE... AT 11 AM...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ALFA COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...19.2 N... 72.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 231436 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005 1500Z SUN OCT 23 2005 AT 11 AM...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 72.5W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 72.5W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 72.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 73.5W...ABSORBED BY WILMA MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 72.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 231437 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT WED OCT 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.0N 74.0W 51 7 X X 58 MBJT 215N 712W 7 X X X 7 29.0N 73.5W X 31 X X 31 MYMM 224N 730W 62 X X X 62 MDCB 176N 714W 36 X X X 36 MYSM 241N 745W 49 8 X X 57 MTPP 186N 724W 99 X X X 99 MYEG 235N 758W 33 7 X X 40 MTCA 183N 738W 19 X X X 19 MYAK 241N 776W 1 3 X X 4 MUGM 200N 751W 38 X X X 38 MYNN 251N 775W 1 5 X X 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 231447 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...ALPHA SE DEBILITA SOBRE LAS MONTANAS DE LA ESPANOLA...CONTINUARAN LAS LLUVIAS TORRENCIALES... A LAS 11 AM...1500Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODA LA LINEA COSTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL ALPHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.2 NORTE... LONGITUD 72.5 OESTE O COMO A 175 MILLAS...285 KM...OESTE-NOROESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y COMO A 140 MILLAS...225 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE GREAT INAGUA ISLAND EN LAS BAHAMAS. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EXISTE LA POSIBILIDAD DE QUE ALFA PUEDA RECOBRAR FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CUANDO EL CENTRO REGRESE A LAS AGUAS DEL CARIBE. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENACEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...19.2 NORTE...72.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EXPEDIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 231449 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER WARM GULF WATERS...COULD INTENSIFY TODAY OR TONIGHT... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO PROGRESO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES... 460 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA... OR ABOUT 340 MILES... 545 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...22.7 N... 85.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 961 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 231449 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 1500Z SUN OCT 23 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO PROGRESO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.8W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB EYE DIAMETER 65 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 300SE 150SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.8W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 86.1W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.7N 84.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.8N 81.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 200SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 77.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 50 KT...125NE 150SE 90SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.1N 72.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...125NE 150SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 250SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 45.0N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...125NE 150SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 250SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 48.5N 55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 50.0N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 85.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 231450 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT WED OCT 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.8N 81.5W 42 6 X X 48 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 4 7 11 29.5N 77.3W X 24 6 X 30 NEW YORK CITY NY X X 2 8 10 35.1N 72.4W X X 14 4 18 MONTAUK POINT NY X X 1 11 12 MUSN 216N 826W 3 X X X 3 PROVIDENCE RI X X 1 11 12 MUHA 230N 824W 29 X X X 29 NANTUCKET MA X X X 13 13 MUAN 219N 850W 74 X X X 74 HYANNIS MA X X X 12 12 MYAK 241N 776W X 3 X X 3 BOSTON MA X X X 11 11 MYNN 251N 775W X 9 X X 9 PORTLAND ME X X X 10 10 MYGF 266N 787W 5 27 X X 32 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 10 10 BERMUDA X X X 2 2 EASTPORT ME X X X 10 10 MARATHON FL 35 4 X X 39 ST JOHN NB X X X 9 9 MIAMI FL 26 14 X X 40 MONCTON NB X X X 8 8 W PALM BEACH FL 20 22 X X 42 YARMOUTH NS X X X 10 10 FT PIERCE FL 14 26 X X 40 HALIFAX NS X X X 8 8 COCOA BEACH FL 8 27 1 X 36 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 4 4 DAYTONA BEACH FL 2 21 X X 23 SYDNEY NS X X X 4 4 JACKSONVILLE FL X 7 1 X 8 EDDY POINT NS X X X 6 6 SAVANNAH GA X 4 X X 4 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 3 3 CHARLESTON SC X 4 3 X 7 BURGEO NFLD X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC X 3 6 X 9 KEY WEST FL 43 2 X X 45 WILMINGTON NC X 1 10 X 11 MARCO ISLAND FL 43 5 X X 48 MOREHEAD CITY NC X 1 13 1 15 FT MYERS FL 36 8 X X 44 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 15 2 17 VENICE FL 25 9 X X 34 NORFOLK VA X X 9 2 11 TAMPA FL 9 12 X X 21 OCEAN CITY MD X X 7 5 12 CEDAR KEY FL 1 5 X X 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM MON TO 7PM MON C FROM 7PM MON TO 7AM TUE D FROM 7AM TUE TO 7AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 231500 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-231830- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK... PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA AND 365 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. WILMA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NO WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO A GUSTY NORTHERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ...SURGE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING POINTS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY THIS MORNING. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. LEE AND PERHAPS CHARLOTTE COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE OVERWASH AND SOME TIDAL FLOODING EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA APPROACHES. NORTH OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE AN OUTGOING TIDE WHICH MAY EXPOSE SANDBARS AND OTHER FEATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLETS...BAYS...AND HARBORS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF HURRICANE WILMA WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HURRICANE WILMA MOVE OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...BUT 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS CHARLOTTE...LEE...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE MANATEE RIVER LATE MONDAY...AND ON THE PEACE AND LITTLE MANATEE RIVERS BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...35 TO 60 KNOTS... TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE THREAT FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...ABOVE 64 KNOTS...IS GREATEST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS NOT EXPECTED FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES SOUTH OF TAMPA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MOST UNSTABLE IN THE DEEPER TROPICAL AIR. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 2 PM TODAY. $$ EO ** WTCA44 TJSJ 231502 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 33 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA MOVIENDOSE AL NORESTE SOBRE LAS CALIDAS AGUAS DEL GOLFO... PODRIA INTENSIFICARSE HOY O ESTA NOCHE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS Y FLORIDA BAY...A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY HACIA EL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE TITUSVILLE AL SUR...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA STEINHATCHEE RIVER DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL NORTE DE TITUSVILLE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DESCONTINUADO TODOS LOS AVISOS DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SIN EMBARGO...ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA TULUM... INCLUYENDO A COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. SE HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA PROGRESO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISON DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE CIUDAD HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PROVINCIA DE MATANZAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS BAHAMAS DE LA PARTE NOROESTE...INCLUYENDO ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...Y NEW PROVIDENCE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.8 OESTE... COMO A 285 MILLAS...460 KILOMETROS AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA...O COMO A 340 MILLAS...545 KM...AL SUROESTE DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA SE ESTIMA EN 961 MILIBARAS...28.38 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 8 A 13 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE Y CERCA Y AL SUR DE DONDE EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRE A TIERRA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 8 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EN FLORIDA BAY...ASI COMO EN EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA A LO LARGO DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS DEBEN DISMINUIR A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE WILMA SE ALEJA. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PARTE NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON TOTALES MAXIMOS AISLADOS ACERCANDOSE A LAS 50 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS HASTA EL MARTES SE ESPERA QUE SEA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS... CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE ALREDEDOR DE 12 PULGADAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA CONTINUAN PROPAGANDOSE HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS PODRIAN AFECTAR A PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO ESTA NOCHE Y EL DOMINGO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...22.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 961 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 PM CDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR KNABB ** WTNT84 KNHC 231504 *** TCVAT4 WILMA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .HURRICANE WILMA FLC011-015-021-027-071-086-087-099-115-AMZ630-650-651-670-671-GMZ031- 033-656-657-676-853-856-873-876-232100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ FLC009-061-085-111-AMZ550-555-570-575-232100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ FLC017-029-053-057-075-081-101-103-GMZ755-775-830-850-870-232100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W $$ FLC127-232100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-AMZ452-454-472-474-232100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ AMZ610-232100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-232100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...EYW...TBW...TAE...MLB...MFL... ** WTUS82 KTBW 231507 CCA *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-231830- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...COR TO ADD SUMTER COUNTY IN THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING TEXT... ...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK... PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...SUMTER AND LEVY COUNTIES. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA AND 365 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. WILMA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NO WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO A GUSTY NORTHERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ...SURGE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING POINTS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY THIS MORNING. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. LEE AND PERHAPS CHARLOTTE COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE OVERWASH AND SOME TIDAL FLOODING EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA APPROACHES. NORTH OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE AN OUTGOING TIDE WHICH MAY EXPOSE SANDBARS AND OTHER FEATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLETS...BAYS...AND HARBORS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF HURRICANE WILMA WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HURRICANE WILMA MOVE OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...BUT 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS CHARLOTTE...LEE...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE MANATEE RIVER LATE MONDAY...AND ON THE PEACE AND LITTLE MANATEE RIVERS BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...35 TO 60 KNOTS... TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE THREAT FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...ABOVE 64 KNOTS...IS GREATEST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS NOT EXPECTED FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES SOUTH OF TAMPA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MOST UNSTABLE IN THE DEEPER TROPICAL AIR. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 2 PM TODAY. $$ EO ** WTNT44 KNHC 231508 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 WILMA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 KT... WHICH IS A MERE PREVIEW OF THE GRADUAL ACCELERATION EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED ROUGHLY OVER IOWA IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DEEPEN SOME AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... WHICH WILL PUSH WILMA NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING PACE. THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE FLORIDA LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA... BUT STILL WITH SOME VARIATION IN BOTH THE SPEED AND PATH. THE GFDL IS THE SOUTHERNMOST SOLUTION... AND THE OTHER MODELS HAVE PERHAPS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH WITH NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE IN THE TIMING... AND IT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD... AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THE LAST RECON FIX AT ABOUT 12Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB... WHICH HAD REMAINED STEADY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS ALMOST IN THE CENTER AT THIS HOUR AND WILL PROVIDE UPDATES ON THE PRESSURE AND WINDS. FOR NOW...THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KT GIVEN THE LIMITED CHANGES IN STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND 12Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90 KT. INNER CORE CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION DO SEEM TO BE ON A GRADUAL INCREASE. AS WILMA PASSES OVER THE LOOP CURRENT TODAY...AND WHILE THE WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH... SOME INTENSIFICATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS... AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS A STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL... ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE OVERESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF SHEAR IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND AS WILMA CROSSES FLORIDA... SO WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. WHILE THE BEST ESTIMATE OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS CATEGORY TWO...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT WILMA COULD REACH FLORIDA AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 22.7N 85.8W 85 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 23.7N 84.5W 95 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 25.8N 81.5W 90 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 29.5N 77.3W 70 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 35.1N 72.4W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/1200Z 45.0N 64.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/1200Z 48.5N 55.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/1200Z 50.0N 45.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 231532 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-231830- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1130 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS ALSO ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST...ABOUT 285 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. FORWARD SPEED GRADUALLY WILL INCREASE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA WAS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 961 MB...OR 28.38 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... YOUR PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN. SHELTERS ARE NOT OPEN IN THE KEYS. TOLLS ARE SUSPENDED ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE. KEY WEST AIRPORT IS CLOSED. MARATHON AIRPORT IS SCHEDULED TO CLOSE AT NOON TODAY. GREYHOUND HAS SUSPENDED SERVICE. J G T BUS SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED PICKUPS IN KEY WEST. THIS FREE SERVICE WILL CONTINUE FROM MARATHON TO KEY LARGO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY CALL THE MONROE COUNTY HOTLINE AT 1-800-955-5504...IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY HOTLINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN HIGHER IN SHOWERS...SO USE EXTRA CARE ON OUR ELEVATED BRIDGES. WE EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. IF WILMA PASSES JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE KEYS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST. TIE OFF YOUR VESSEL WITH THIS IN MIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WE ESTIMATE STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE LATE TONIGHT. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE INDICATED ON THE GULF SIDE AND BAY SIDE. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR...AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK BRIDGE OVER ROUTE 1 IN TAVERNIER. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN OUTER RAINBANDS ARE A THREAT WITH HURRICANE WILMA. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL OCCUR FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM/AD ** WTUS82 KTAE 231532 *** HLSTAE GMZ755-775-FLZ034-232230- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1102 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND...PARTICULARLY DIXIE COUNTY. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TODAY... AND MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVEN THOUGH WILMA IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD... WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AS MUCH AS 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY... ESPECIALLY IF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. IN PREPARATION FOR THESE WINDS...RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE IN ANY OUTDOOR FURNITURE OR OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS...AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ALONG THE DIXIE COUNTY COAST...AS ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE PRIMARILY OFFSHORE WINDS. ...WIND IMPACTS... IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WARNED AREA WOULD BE PRIMARILY FROM A FEW DOWNED TREES AND TREE LIMBS...WHICH COULD CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND ROAD HAZARDS...AND ALSO DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES ON WHICH THEY FALL. MINOR WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES...AND NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS COULD BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED. LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS LIGHT PATIO FURNITURE OR TRASH CANS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND. SOME CURRENT AREA WIND CONDITIONS AS OF 11 AM EDT ARE AS FOLLOWS: CROSS CITY: NE AT 8 MPH. PERRY: NE AT 9 MPH. KEATON BEACH: NE AT 11 GUSTING TO 16 MPH. CEDAR KEY: NE AT 14 GUSTING TO 18 MPH. APALACHICOLA BUOY: NE AT 19 GUSTING TO 24 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED RAPID MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE WILMA...AND THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WILL BE LOCATED ON THE GENERALLY DRIER NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STORM...NO HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOOD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY NOT EXCEED ONE INCH. ...TORNADO THREAT... THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AREA. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS NO RIP CURRENT THREAT EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING DIXIE COUNTY...AS BREAKERS DO NOT GENERALLY OCCUR OVER THIS AREA. FURTHER TO THE WEST OVER ST. GEORGE ISLAND AND POINTS WESTWARD...HOWEVER...THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS HIGH DUE TO LARGE BREAKING WAVES REACHING THE COAST FROM WILMA. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ON WILMA WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 630 PM EDT. $$ 17-GOULD ** WTUS82 KJAX 231536 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-232200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1136 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR NASSAU...DUVAL...ST. JOHNS... AND FLAGLER COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL... ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FROM NASSAU COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WILMA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST EARLY MONDAY AS A LARGE HURRICANE...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGE WIND FIELD AROUND WILMA WILL POSSIBLY BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL COUNTIES FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND SOUTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH AND BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES. MARINERS AND COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO REMAIN IN PORT BY LATE SUNDAY UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HIGHLY POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES. SURF WILL ALSO RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY. LOCAL INLETS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND INLAND ESTUARIES WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A RISE IN WATER LEVELS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE APPROACH OF WILMA WILL INCREASE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME WILL DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK...BUT BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ARE POSSIBLE. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA AND MAY WISH TO MAKE PLANS TO SECURE VULNERABLE OBJECTS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM EDT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE. $$ LETRO ** WTUS82 KMLB 231552 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 232145- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1150 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SEE WIND IMPACT DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE...WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN BREVARD...VOLUSIA...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN...INDIAN RIVER... OKEECHOBEE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE WILMA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY ON MONDAY AND ACCELERATE VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY. DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS THE AREA OF GREATEST IMPACT WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK. DO NOT GET CAUGHT OFF- GUARD OR DELAY YOUR ACTIONS...IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM PLANS. ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDIANS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AS THE THREAT OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAS LESSENED BUT THIS DOES NOT MEAN TO LET DOWN YOUR GUARD...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM WILMA ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELD IS VERY LARGE AND THEREFORE WILL ARRIVE WELL BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE CORE WINDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS OKEECHOBEE... OSCEOLA...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS BREVARD...ORANGE...LAKE... SEMINOLE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES STARTING BEFORE 8 AM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. BECAUSE THE OF THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA...WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE RIGHT. IT IS LIKELY A BAND OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 100 MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. THE LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST WIND IMPACT WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. BY THAT TIME WILMA WILL BE MOVING VERY FAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED SOUTHWARD BEHIND WILMA AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY. THE GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES WILL BE IN OUTER RAINBANDS PRECEDING WILMA AND IN THE INNER RAINBANDS NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF WILMA AS IT RAPIDLY CROSSES THE PENINSULA. TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR EARLY MONDAY. LATE SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE PRODUCED KILLER TORNADOES IN THE PAST. IF TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED TAKE THEM SERIOUSLY. THE SAFEST PLACE IS IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BLOCK HOME AWAY FROM WINDOWS. CHECK WITH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGERS FOR SHELTER LOCATIONS FOR THOSE IN MANUFACTURED HOMES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. BECAUSE WILMA WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE... WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES MAY OCCUR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS OUTER RAINBANDS FROM WILMA LIFT NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTERSECT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING MAINLY FROM ORLANDO SOUTHWARD AS THE CORE OF HURRICANE WILMA MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR... IT APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...OR IN AN AREA THAT IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...DO WHAT IS NECESSARY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA AND THE MOVEMENT OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC...HIGH IMPACT STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A STORM TIDE OF PERHAPS 3 OR 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AROUND MID DAY MONDAY NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES OFFSHORE. EXTREMELY ROUGH SURF...BEACH EROSION...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES AS WILMA MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. ...MARINE IMPACTS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM FOR MARINERS DUE TO ITS RAPID APPROACH AND ACCELERATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME HAZARDOUS BY EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS AND THEN BECOME EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY NWS MELBOURNE BY 6PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON WILMA LOCAL INFO. $$ BCH ** WTUS82 KEYW 231552 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-231830- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1150 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... FLOOD WATCH ADDED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS ALSO ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST...ABOUT 285 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. FORWARD SPEED GRADUALLY WILL INCREASE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA WAS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 961 MB...OR 28.38 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... YOUR PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN. SHELTERS ARE NOT OPEN IN THE KEYS. TOLLS ARE SUSPENDED ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE. KEY WEST AIRPORT IS CLOSED. MARATHON AIRPORT IS SCHEDULED TO CLOSE AT NOON TODAY. GREYHOUND HAS SUSPENDED SERVICE. J G T BUS SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED PICKUPS IN KEY WEST. THIS FREE SERVICE WILL CONTINUE FROM MARATHON TO KEY LARGO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY CALL THE MONROE COUNTY HOTLINE AT 1-800-955-5504...IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY HOTLINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN HIGHER IN SHOWERS...SO USE EXTRA CARE ON OUR ELEVATED BRIDGES. WE EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. IF WILMA PASSES JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE KEYS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST. TIE OFF YOUR VESSEL WITH THIS IN MIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WE ESTIMATE STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE LATE TONIGHT. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE INDICATED ON THE GULF SIDE AND BAY SIDE. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR...AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK BRIDGE OVER ROUTE 1 IN TAVERNIER. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN OUTER RAINBANDS ARE A THREAT WITH HURRICANE WILMA. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL OCCUR FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SEVERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU LIVE IN A HIGHLY FLOOD-PRONE AREA TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM/AD ** WTUS82 KMFL 231622 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-232300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1222 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...RAIN BANDS WILL START TO AFFECT GULF WATERS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION UPDATED SURGE INFORMATION UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS UPDATED WIND EFFECTS UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD RUSH THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO COMPLETION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. A TOTAL OF 9 SHELTERS ARE OPEN. ADDITIONAL EVACUATION ORDERS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY AS THE FORECAST FOR WILMA BECOMES MORE CLEAR. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY. IN HENDRY COUNTY...COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS STRONGLY URGE A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM TODAY. IN GLADES COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOMES AND LOW LYING AREAS IS IN EFFECT. THREE REGULAR SHELTERS AND A SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTER WILL OPEN AT NOON TODAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN AT NOON TODAY. SHELTERS ARE OPEN. COUNTY GOVERNMENT OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY AND THE COUNTY URGES BUSINESSES IN BROWARD TO CLOSE FOR THE SAFETY OF THEIR EMPLOYEES. A BRIDGE LOCKDOWN WILL OCCUR AT 5 PM EDT. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN SUB-STANDARD HOUSING...LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL BEGIN AT 1 PM EDT TODAY. SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS ARE OPEN. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1 PM EDT. IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL RESIDENTS THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES. THERE IS ALSO A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT FEEL SAFE IN THEIR HOMES OR LIVE IN LOW-LYING AREAS. THREE EVACUATION SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON TODAY...AS WELL TWO SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS AND A PET-FRIENDLY SHELTER. BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST SOMEWHERE IN COLLIER COUNTY. A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 8 TO 14 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL MID MORNING MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF LOCAL ACCESS ROADS TO MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING STATE ROADS 92...951...953 AND 29 AND LARGE PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL U.S. HIGHWAY 41. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF LARGE PARTS OF NAPLES ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL AND MARCO ISLAND IS EXPECTED. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT CONCENTRATE ON THE EXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER BECAUSE THE ERROR INHERENT 24 HOURS AWAY FROM LANDFALL CAN BE AS MUCH AS 70 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF COLLIER COUNTY AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. IF YOU BELIEVE YOUR LOCATION IS POSSIBLY PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...THE BEST ACTION IS TO EVACUATE. A STORM TIDE AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED MID MORNING MONDAY IN THE TEN THOUSAND ISLANDS OF EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK. A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLAMINGO AREA MID MORNING MONDAY AND UP TO 10 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF CAPE SABLE. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INCLUDING MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES...A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED MID MORNING MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN CANALS AND WATERWAYS. SOUTH WINDS WILL PILE SOME WATER INTO THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY CAUSING SOME FLOODING OF CAUSEWAYS AND LOW LYING BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM TIDE OF 18 TO 20 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHICH WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS...IS EXPECTED WITH WILMA FROM MID MORNING TO AROUND NOON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE WILL BE OCCURRING FROM THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK EAST TO BELLE GLADE AND SOUTH BAY INCLUDING CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN...THEN ALSO ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE UP TO PAHOKEE AND PORT MAYACA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION INCLUDING TORRY...KREAMER AND RITTA ISLANDS AND SOME ACCESS ROADS. THE LAKE LEVEL ON SATURDAY WAS 15.58 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER COLLIER COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING...REACHING THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER THAN 74 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY...REACHING METRO MIAMI-DADE AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION NEAR DAWN AND THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH METRO AREAS BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...GENERALLY A FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN MOST AREAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND IN METRO PALM BEACH AND BROWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. MAJOR WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...WITH DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIAL...DOORS...AND WINDOWS OF BUILDINGS...WITH SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS ALSO POSSIBLE. OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO LIKELY. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PERSONS MUST NOT DRIVE OR WALK AROUND IN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. SEVERAL SOUTH FLORIDA DEATHS OCCURRED IN KATRINA WHEN PEOPLE DECIDED TO WALK AROUND TO WATCH TREES FALL IN STRONG WINDS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A 75 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH... THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCES THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH RANGE FROM 45 TO 50 PERCENT AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...TO AS HIGH AS 75 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST FROM EVERGLADES CITY SOUTHWARD...20 TO 35 PERCENT ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF A BONITA BEACH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO JUPITER LINE...AND 15TO 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA WILL AFFECT THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ROUGH SEAS...AND WATERSPOUTS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE BANDS AS THEY MOVE NORTH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 13 FEET OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REACH HURRICANE FORCE...64 KNOTS...IN THE GULF WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING VERY ROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING AROUND NOON MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING MID MORNING MONDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS WILMA RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MARINERS SHOULD RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION FOR THE PROTECTION OF MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS. BE SURE TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IS COLLIER COUNTY...PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS... PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES WILL BE THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF WILMA. THE MOST DANGEROUS TIME FOR TORNADOES WILL BE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NOON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM. $$ MOLLEDA ** WTUS82 KMFL 231623 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-232300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED HEADLINE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1223 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION UPDATED SURGE INFORMATION UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS UPDATED WIND EFFECTS UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD RUSH THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO COMPLETION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. A TOTAL OF 9 SHELTERS ARE OPEN. ADDITIONAL EVACUATION ORDERS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY AS THE FORECAST FOR WILMA BECOMES MORE CLEAR. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY. IN HENDRY COUNTY...COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS STRONGLY URGE A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM TODAY. IN GLADES COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOMES AND LOW LYING AREAS IS IN EFFECT. THREE REGULAR SHELTERS AND A SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTER WILL OPEN AT NOON TODAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN AT NOON TODAY. SHELTERS ARE OPEN. COUNTY GOVERNMENT OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY AND THE COUNTY URGES BUSINESSES IN BROWARD TO CLOSE FOR THE SAFETY OF THEIR EMPLOYEES. A BRIDGE LOCKDOWN WILL OCCUR AT 5 PM EDT. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN SUB-STANDARD HOUSING...LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL BEGIN AT 1 PM EDT TODAY. SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS ARE OPEN. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1 PM EDT. IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL RESIDENTS THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES. THERE IS ALSO A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT FEEL SAFE IN THEIR HOMES OR LIVE IN LOW-LYING AREAS. THREE EVACUATION SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON TODAY...AS WELL TWO SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS AND A PET-FRIENDLY SHELTER. BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST SOMEWHERE IN COLLIER COUNTY. A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 8 TO 14 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL MID MORNING MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF LOCAL ACCESS ROADS TO MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING STATE ROADS 92...951...953 AND 29 AND LARGE PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL U.S. HIGHWAY 41. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF LARGE PARTS OF NAPLES ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL AND MARCO ISLAND IS EXPECTED. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT CONCENTRATE ON THE EXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER BECAUSE THE ERROR INHERENT 24 HOURS AWAY FROM LANDFALL CAN BE AS MUCH AS 70 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF COLLIER COUNTY AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. IF YOU BELIEVE YOUR LOCATION IS POSSIBLY PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...THE BEST ACTION IS TO EVACUATE. A STORM TIDE AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED MID MORNING MONDAY IN THE TEN THOUSAND ISLANDS OF EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK. A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLAMINGO AREA MID MORNING MONDAY AND UP TO 10 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF CAPE SABLE. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INCLUDING MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES...A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED MID MORNING MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN CANALS AND WATERWAYS. SOUTH WINDS WILL PILE SOME WATER INTO THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY CAUSING SOME FLOODING OF CAUSEWAYS AND LOW LYING BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM TIDE OF 18 TO 20 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHICH WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS...IS EXPECTED WITH WILMA FROM MID MORNING TO AROUND NOON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE WILL BE OCCURRING FROM THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK EAST TO BELLE GLADE AND SOUTH BAY INCLUDING CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN...THEN ALSO ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE UP TO PAHOKEE AND PORT MAYACA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION INCLUDING TORRY...KREAMER AND RITTA ISLANDS AND SOME ACCESS ROADS. THE LAKE LEVEL ON SATURDAY WAS 15.58 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER COLLIER COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING...REACHING THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER THAN 74 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY...REACHING METRO MIAMI-DADE AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION NEAR DAWN AND THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH METRO AREAS BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...GENERALLY A FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN MOST AREAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND IN METRO PALM BEACH AND BROWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. MAJOR WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...WITH DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIAL...DOORS...AND WINDOWS OF BUILDINGS...WITH SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS ALSO POSSIBLE. OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO LIKELY. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PERSONS MUST NOT DRIVE OR WALK AROUND IN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. SEVERAL SOUTH FLORIDA DEATHS OCCURRED IN KATRINA WHEN PEOPLE DECIDED TO WALK AROUND TO WATCH TREES FALL IN STRONG WINDS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A 75 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH... THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCES THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH RANGE FROM 45 TO 50 PERCENT AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...TO AS HIGH AS 75 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST FROM EVERGLADES CITY SOUTHWARD...20 TO 35 PERCENT ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF A BONITA BEACH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO JUPITER LINE...AND 15TO 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA WILL AFFECT THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ROUGH SEAS...AND WATERSPOUTS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE BANDS AS THEY MOVE NORTH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 13 FEET OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REACH HURRICANE FORCE...64 KNOTS...IN THE GULF WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING VERY ROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING AROUND NOON MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING MID MORNING MONDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS WILMA RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MARINERS SHOULD RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION FOR THE PROTECTION OF MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS. BE SURE TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IS COLLIER COUNTY...PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS... PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES WILL BE THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF WILMA. THE MOST DANGEROUS TIME FOR TORNADOES WILL BE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NOON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM. $$ MOLLEDA ** WTNT80 EGRR 231657 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.10.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 71.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL252005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.10.2005 20.0N 71.9W WEAK 00UTC 24.10.2005 21.2N 73.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.10.2005 25.7N 81.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 86.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.10.2005 22.3N 86.5W STRONG 00UTC 24.10.2005 23.6N 84.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.10.2005 25.7N 81.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2005 29.2N 76.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.10.2005 36.0N 69.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.10.2005 42.7N 68.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.10.2005 46.3N 65.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 27.10.2005 46.8N 62.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 27.10.2005 50.6N 55.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.10.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 10.4N 79.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION