** WTNT34 KNHC 230559 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF YUCATAN...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WEST OF SAN FELIPE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA GRUESA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 370 MILES... 600 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT... DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 230616 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...CORRECTED WARNINGS OVER YUCATAN... ...WILMA DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF YUCATAN...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA...AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH WEST OF SAN FELIPE AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF PROGRESO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA GRUESA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO PROGRESO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 370 MILES... 600 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT... DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 230620 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-230930- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 2 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA IS BACK OVER THE GULF WATERS AND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS... HILLSBOROUGH...POLK... PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA AND 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. WILMA WAS DRIFTING NORTH AT 3 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NO WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTLINE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO A GUSTY NORTHERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ...SURGE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING POINTS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. LEE AND PERHAPS CHARLOTTE COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE OVERWASH AND SOME TIDAL FLOODING EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA APPROACHES. NORTH OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE AN OUTGOING TIDE WHICH MAY EXPOSE SANDBARS AND OTHER FEATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLETS...BAYS... AND HARBORS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... ON SUNDAY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM FEEDER BANDS WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MORE EXTENSIVE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY...RAINFALL MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD MAY PRODUCE A BIT MORE MINOR FLOODING. EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES OR HIGHER..MAINLY SOUTH OF A TAMPA BAY TO POLK COUNTY LINE. RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF WILMA ACROSS THE REGION. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...35 TO 60 KNOTS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE THREAT FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...64 KNOTS...IS GREATEST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS NOT EXPECTED FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A LOW THREAT SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY IS EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STABLE CONDITIONS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM WHERE TROPICAL AIR IS MOST ABUNDANT. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 5 AM TODAY. $$ CP ** WTUS82 KEYW 230625 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-230930- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST...ABOUT 55 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 370 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 962 MB...OR 28.41 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IS OPEN FOR KEYS RESIDENTS. THERE WILL BE NO SHELTERS OPEN IN THE KEYS. THE AUTHORITIES RECOMMEND THAT YOU SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS CLOSED. THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT IS SCHEDULED TO CLOSE TO AIRCRAFT AT NOON TODAY. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL IS SCHEDULED TO HAVE ONE MORE PAID BUS DEPARTING KEY WEST TO MIAMI AT 845 AM TODAY. J G T BUS SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ITS REGULARLY SCHEDULED ROUTES AND PICK UP EVACUEES TO FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...FROM MARATHON TO KEY LARGO. J G T WILL ALSO PROVIDE SERVICES FROM KEY WEST TO MARATHON TODAY STARTING AT 900 AM AND LASTING AS LONG AS IT IS SAFE TO DRIVE THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. THE PICKUP POINT IN KEY WEST IS THE SEARSTOWN SHOPPING CENTER. THIS BUS WILL STOP TO PICK UP EVACUEES ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE OF U.S. ONE WHO SIGNAL THE DRIVER. ONCE EVACUEES ARRIVE IN MARATHON THEY WILL BE TRANSFERED TO ANOTHER BUS AND TAKEN TO THE F I U SHELTER. THIS SERVICE IS FREE TO ANYONE EVACUATING THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY CALL MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 1-800-955-5504...OR IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY HOTLINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. USE EXTRA CARE IN DRIVING OVER BRIDGES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE KEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. IF WILMA PASSES JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE KEYS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. VESSELS SHOULD BE TIED OFF WITH THIS IN MIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...WITH NEAR 8 FEET ON THE BAYSIDE IN THE TAVERNIER AND KEY LARGO AREA. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR... AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE IN TAVERNIER. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS...EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA...ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF OCCURRENCE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ RIZZO/BROCK ** WTIN20 DEMS 230621 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 23-10-2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL,ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AAA RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 18.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION AAA ====== OVER ** WTUS82 KMFL 230637 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-231030- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION AND STORM SURGE SECTIONS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI DADE...GLADES...HENDRY...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ALL LOCAL IMPACTS DEPICTED BELOW IN THIS STATEMENT ARE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...TIMING..AND INTENSITY IN WILMA'S FORECAST. ANY DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST COULD ALTER THE DEPICTED LOCAL IMPACTS. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY TUNED AS THIS STATEMENT IS UPDATED EVERY 3 TO 6 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA PARTICULARLY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS IN THIS CASE. RESIDENTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO PLACE NOT LATER THAN EARLY ON SUNDAY. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT TODAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT TODAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY. IN HENDRY COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS RECOMMENDED. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM TODAY. IN GLADES COUNTY...SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING THIS EVENING. A DECISION ON THE EXTENT OF THE EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE TODAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN AT NOON TODAY. SIX SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON ALONG WITH A PET-FRIENDLY SHELTER. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN SUBSTANDARD HOUSING...LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL COMMENCE AT 1 PM EDT TODAY. SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 10 AM EDT. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1 PM EDT. IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS ON EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE EARLY TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK...SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL STORM TIDE OF 9 TO 12 FEET...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY COASTS...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH THROUGH FLAMINGO...ASSUMING THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL OR APPROACHES THE COAST AS A CATEGORY 2 EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS EXPECTED AROUND 4 TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF TAMIAMI TRAIL. OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM SURGE OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE. ON THE EAST COAST...STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES AS FORECAST. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY START AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN MONDAY MORNING HOURS...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM WINDS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS FROM 50 TO 65 PERCENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 16 FEET OFFSHORE...AND WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE FORCE LATE TONIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH TODAY...BECOMING VERY ROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY OFF THE PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AROUND MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MARINERS SHOULD START PROTECTING MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TODAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE FLOOD IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE PROVIDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH TODAY WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING LATER TODAY...AND COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE STATE AND RAIN BANDS BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING. $$ PS ** WTCA44 TJSJ 230639 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 31A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL NORESTE LEJOS DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE YUCATAN...NO SE HA FORTALECIDO AUN... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS Y FLORIDA BAY. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY HACIA EL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE JUPITER INLET HACIA EL SUR...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA AL NORTE DE JUPITER INLET HASTA TITUSVILLE. PUDIERAN REQUERIRSE AVISOS DE HURACANES PARA ESTE AREA EL DOMINGO EN LA MANANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA AL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA EL RIO STEINHATCHEE. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE TITUSVILLE AL NORTE HASTA FERDINA BEACH. A LA 1 AM CDT...0600Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE HURACAN AL SUR DE PUNTA GRUESA...Y HA DESCONTINUADO LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN AL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE TANTO COMO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL OESTE DE PROGRESO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS...Y PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA PROGRESO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PROVINCIA DE MATANZAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO LAS ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLAND...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...Y NEW PROVIDENCE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LA 1 AM CDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.8 OESTE... COMO A 55 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS AL NORTE DE CANCUN MEXICO. ESTO TAMBIEN ES COMO A 370 MILLAS... 600 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE Y SE ESPERA UN AUMETNO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA UNIDAD DE LA FUERZA AEREA REPORTO UNA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA DE 962 MILIBARAS...28.41 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 8 A 13 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE Y CERCA Y AL SUR DE DONDE EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRE A TIERRA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 8 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EN FLORIDA BAY...ASI COMO EN EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA A LO LARGO DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS DEBEN DISMINUIR A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE WILMA SE ALEJA. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON TOTALES MAXIMOS AISLADOS ACERCANDOSE A LAS 50 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS SE ESPERA QUE SEA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS... CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE ALREDEDOR DE 12 PULGADAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA CONTINUAN PROPAGANDOSE HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS PODRIAN AFECTAR A PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO ESTA NOCHE Y EL DOMINGO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL PROXIMO PAR DE DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 AM CDT...21.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 962 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 230641 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-230930- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST...ABOUT 55 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 370 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 962 MB...OR 28.41 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IS OPEN FOR KEYS RESIDENTS. THERE WILL BE NO SHELTERS OPEN IN THE KEYS. THE AUTHORITIES RECOMMEND THAT YOU SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS CLOSED. THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT IS SCHEDULED TO CLOSE TO AIRCRAFT AT NOON TODAY. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL IS SCHEDULED TO HAVE ONE MORE PAID BUS DEPARTING KEY WEST TO MIAMI AT 845 AM TODAY. J G T BUS SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ITS REGULARLY SCHEDULED ROUTES AND PICK UP EVACUEES TO FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...FROM MARATHON TO KEY LARGO. J G T WILL ALSO PROVIDE SERVICES FROM KEY WEST TO MARATHON TODAY STARTING AT 900 AM AND LASTING AS LONG AS IT IS SAFE TO DRIVE THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. THE PICKUP POINT IN KEY WEST IS THE SEARSTOWN SHOPPING CENTER. THIS BUS WILL STOP TO PICK UP EVACUEES ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE OF U.S. ONE WHO SIGNAL THE DRIVER. ONCE EVACUEES ARRIVE IN MARATHON THEY WILL BE TRANSFERED TO ANOTHER BUS AND TAKEN TO THE F I U SHELTER. THIS SERVICE IS FREE TO ANYONE EVACUATING THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY CALL MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 1-800-955-5504...OR IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY HOTLINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. USE EXTRA CARE IN DRIVING OVER BRIDGES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE KEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. IF WILMA PASSES JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE KEYS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. VESSELS SHOULD BE TIED OFF WITH THIS IN MIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...WITH NEAR 8 FEET ON THE BAYSIDE IN THE TAVERNIER AND KEY LARGO AREA. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR... AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE IN TAVERNIER. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS...EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA...ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF OCCURRENCE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ RIZZO/BROCK ** WTUS82 KTBW 230641 CCA *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-230930- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 2 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ADDED SUMTER COUNTY TO INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING LIST ...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA IS BACK OVER THE GULF WATERS AND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS... HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...PASCO...HERNANDO...SUMTER...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA AND 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. WILMA WAS DRIFTING NORTH AT 3 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NO WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTLINE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO A GUSTY NORTHERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ...SURGE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING POINTS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. LEE AND PERHAPS CHARLOTTE COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE OVERWASH AND SOME TIDAL FLOODING EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA APPROACHES. NORTH OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE AN OUTGOING TIDE WHICH MAY EXPOSE SANDBARS AND OTHER FEATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLETS...BAYS... AND HARBORS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... ON SUNDAY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM FEEDER BANDS WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MORE EXTENSIVE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY...RAINFALL MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD MAY PRODUCE A BIT MORE MINOR FLOODING. EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES OR HIGHER..MAINLY SOUTH OF A TAMPA BAY TO POLK COUNTY LINE. RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF WILMA ACROSS THE REGION. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...35 TO 60 KNOTS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE THREAT FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...64 KNOTS...IS GREATEST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS NOT EXPECTED FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A LOW THREAT SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY IS EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STABLE CONDITIONS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM WHERE TROPICAL AIR IS MOST ABUNDANT. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 5 AM TODAY. $$ CP ** WTNT45 KNHC 230821 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ALPHA DEVELOPED SOME MODEST BANDING AROUND 6Z...AND THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB CAUGHT UP WITH THE ADVISORY VALUE OF 45 KT. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS ALREADY DEGRADING HOWEVER AS THE CENTER IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN HISPANIOLA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT BARAHONA AND SANTO DOMINGO INDICATE THAT ALPHA HAS PROBABLY WEAKENED...I WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 45 KT TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE. GIVEN THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE IT SURVIVING THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AHEAD OF IT. ASSUMING THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT ON THE OTHER SIDE...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF WILMA IS LIKELY TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ALPHA TO MAINTAIN A CLOSED CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INTENSIFY ALPHA IN THE ATLANTIC IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ANYTHING RESEMBLING A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CARRY ALPHA FOR 36 HOURS BUT I EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN THAT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12. ALPHA IS NEARING THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE WILMA APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE. THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACKERS ARE LOCKING ON TO THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...WHICH IS A DEGREE OR TWO TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRIES TO FOLLOW THE SURFACE CENTER...AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM. ALPHA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING EVENT OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A STRONG LIKLIHOOD OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD-SLIDES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 18.1N 71.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 20.1N 72.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 23.3N 73.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 28.0N 73.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 230821 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005 0900Z SUN OCT 23 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 71.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 71.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 70.5W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.1N 72.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.3N 73.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.0N 73.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 71.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 230822 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...ALPHA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES... 15 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ALPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...AND COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 71.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 230822 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ALPHA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT WED OCT 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.3N 73.5W 56 5 X X 61 MDPP 198N 707W 74 X X X 74 28.0N 73.5W X 38 X X 38 MBJT 215N 712W 41 X X X 41 MDSD 185N 697W 99 X X X 99 MYMM 224N 730W 64 1 X X 65 MDCB 176N 714W 99 X X X 99 MYSM 241N 745W 38 15 X X 53 MTPP 186N 724W 80 X X X 80 MYEG 235N 758W 14 11 X X 25 MTCA 183N 738W 8 X X X 8 MYNN 251N 775W X 3 X X 3 MUGM 200N 751W 8 X X X 8 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 230829 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...ALPHA A PUNTO DE TOCAR TIERRA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA LINEA COSTERA DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 71.0 OESTE O COMO A 10 MILLAS...15 KM...AL SURESTE DE BARAHONA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ALPHA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL LLEVE EL CENTRO DE ALPHA SOBRE TIERRA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA EN LA PROXIMA HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE DESPUES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO RAPIDO DESPUES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA...Y PODRIA DISIPARSE SOBRE EL TERRENO MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENACEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...18.1 NORTE...71.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTNT34 KNHC 230830 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...STILL NOT STRENGTHENING... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS REPLACED BY A HURRICANE WARNING NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z....THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA GRUESA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO PROGRESO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM... NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO AND ABOUT 350 MILES... 565 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...22.1 N... 86.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 961 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 230831 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0900Z SUN OCT 23 2005 AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS REPLACED BY A HURRICANE WARNING NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z....THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA GRUESA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO PROGRESO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 86.6W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 300SE 125SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 86.6W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.7N 83.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.4N 79.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 43.0N 66.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 47.5N 59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 49.0N 49.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 86.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 230832 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT WED OCT 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.7N 83.3W 41 3 X X 44 OCEAN CITY MD X X 2 10 12 27.4N 79.5W X 23 6 X 29 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 1 10 11 32.5N 74.5W X X 14 5 19 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 11 11 MUCF 221N 805W 2 4 X X 6 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 12 12 MUSN 216N 826W 12 2 X X 14 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 12 12 MUHA 230N 824W 29 3 X X 32 NANTUCKET MA X X X 13 13 MUAN 219N 850W 59 X X X 59 HYANNIS MA X X X 13 13 MMCZ 205N 869W 34 X X X 34 BOSTON MA X X X 11 11 MYEG 235N 758W X 1 1 X 2 PORTLAND ME X X X 10 10 MYAK 241N 776W X 5 2 X 7 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 9 9 MYNN 251N 775W X 7 5 X 12 EASTPORT ME X X X 8 8 MYGF 266N 787W X 19 6 X 25 ST JOHN NB X X X 6 6 BERMUDA X X X 2 2 MONCTON NB X X X 5 5 MARATHON FL 11 20 X X 31 YARMOUTH NS X X X 8 8 MIAMI FL 2 27 1 X 30 HALIFAX NS X X X 5 5 W PALM BEACH FL X 27 3 X 30 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 2 2 FT PIERCE FL X 26 4 X 30 EDDY POINT NS X X X 2 2 COCOA BEACH FL X 23 5 X 28 KEY WEST FL 23 12 X X 35 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 16 7 X 23 MARCO ISLAND FL 8 26 1 X 35 JACKSONVILLE FL X 6 7 X 13 FT MYERS FL 5 28 X X 33 SAVANNAH GA X 2 6 X 8 VENICE FL 4 25 1 X 30 CHARLESTON SC X 1 8 2 11 TAMPA FL 1 22 2 X 25 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 10 2 12 CEDAR KEY FL X 12 2 X 14 WILMINGTON NC X X 10 4 14 ST MARKS FL X 3 1 X 4 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 10 6 16 APALACHICOLA FL X 2 1 X 3 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 9 7 16 GULF 29N 85W X 4 X X 4 NORFOLK VA X X 4 9 13 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON C FROM 1PM MON TO 1AM TUE D FROM 1AM TUE TO 1AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT84 KNHC 230842 *** TCVAT4 WILMA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .HURRICANE WILMA FLC009-061-085-111-AMZ550-555-570-575-231500- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1024.051023T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ FLC011-015-021-027-071-086-087-099-115-AMZ630-650-651-670-671-GMZ031- 033-656-657-676-853-856-873-876-231500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ FLC127-231500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1024.051023T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ FLC017-029-053-057-075-081-101-103-GMZ755-775-830-850-870-231500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-AMZ452-454-472-474-231500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ AMZ610-231500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-231500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...EYW...TBW...TAE...MLB...MFL... ** WTCA44 TJSJ 230842 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 31A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE AL NORESTE...NO SE HA FORTALECIDO AUN... A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN HA SIDO REEMPLAZADA POR UN AVISO DE HURACAN AL NORTE DE JUPITER INLET HASTA TITUSVILLE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS Y FLORIDA BAY...A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY HACIA EL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE TITUSVILLE AL SUR...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ES REEMPLAZADA POR UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE TITUSVILLE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA AL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA EL RIO STEINHATCHEE....Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE TITUSVILLE AL NORTE HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS...Y PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA PROGRESO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO LAS ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLAND...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...Y NEW PROVIDENCE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.6 OESTE... COMO A 40 MILLAS...65 KILOMETROS AL NORTE DE CANCUN MEXICO...Y COMO A 350 MILLAS... 565 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA UNIDAD DE LA FUERZA AEREA REPORTO UNA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA DE 961 MILIBARAS...28.38 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 8 A 13 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE Y CERCA Y AL SUR DE DONDE EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRE A TIERRA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 8 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EN FLORIDA BAY...ASI COMO EN EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA A LO LARGO DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS DEBEN DISMINUIR A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE WILMA SE ALEJA. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON TOTALES MAXIMOS AISLADOS ACERCANDOSE A LAS 50 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS SE ESPERA QUE SEA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS... CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE ALREDEDOR DE 12 PULGADAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA CONTINUAN PROPAGANDOSE HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS PODRIAN AFECTAR A PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO ESTA NOCHE Y EL DOMINGO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL PROXIMO PAR DE DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...22.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 961 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM CDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTUS82 KMLB 230901 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 231600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 500 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...HURRICANE WILMA NOW MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE...WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE... OSCEOLA AND ORANGE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE...SEMINOLE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN BREVARD...VOLUSIA...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN...INDIAN RIVER... OKEECHOBEE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES WEST- SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE WILMA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA VERY EARLY ON MONDAY AND ACCELERATE VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY BE COMPLETED TODAY...PREFERABLY IN THE MORNING...AS WEATHER MAY DETEORIATE RAPIDLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CHECK WITH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THE LOCATIONS OF SHELTERS... PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE WITH SPECIAL NEEDS AND PEOPLE LIVING IN MANUFACTURED OR MOBILE HOMES. BREVARD COUNTY HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE AND MANUFACTURED HOMES AND WILL BE OPENING SHELTERS AT 10 AM TODAY. DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS THE AREA OF GREATEST IMPACT WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK. DO NOT GET CAUGHT OFF-GUARD OR DELAY YOUR ACTIONS. DO NOT ASSUME A WAIT AND SEE ATTITUDE BECAUSE THERE MAY NOT BE TIME TO REACT IF THERE IS ANY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDIANS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE GREATEST THREAT FROM WILMA ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELD IS VERY LARGE AND THEREFORE WILL ARRIVE WELL BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE CORE WINDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS OKEECHOBEE... OSCEOLA...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD ACROSS BREVARD... ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES STARTING BEFORE 8 AM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN... SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY AND THEN SPREAD INTO INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. BECAUSE THE OF THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA...WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE RIGHT. IT IS LIKELY A BAND OF VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 100 MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. THE LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST WIND IMPACT WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. BY THAT TIME WILMA WILL BE MOVING VERY FAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... LATE SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES APPROACHING FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A GREATER RISK OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH OUTER RAINBANDS TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT DURING THE APPROACH OF THE CENTRAL RAINBANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. BECAUSE WILMA WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE... WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES MAY OCCUR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF WILMA. BUT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL INTERSECT THE WILMA CIRCULATION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR ...IT APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...OR IN AN AREA THAT IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...DO WHAT IS NECESSARY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA AND THE MOVEMENT OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC...HIGH IMPACT STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A STORM TIDE OF PERHAPS 3 OR 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AROUND MID DAY MONDAY NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES OFFSHORE. EXTREMELY ROUGH SURF...BEACH EROSION...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES AS WILMA MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. ...MARINE IMPACTS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM FOR MARINERS DUE TO ITS RAPID APPROACH AND ACCELERATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME HAZARDOUS LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING SEAS AND THEN BECOME EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ON MONDAY. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE REGULAR ISSUANCE OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN SUSPENDED UNTIL AFTER WILMA PASSES. ALL HAZARDOUS WEATHER INFORMATION FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE CONTAINED IN HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY NWS MELBOURNE BY NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON WILMA LOCAL INFO. $$ DECKER ** WTNT44 KNHC 230906 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 CENTER FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT WILMA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...AROUND 045/03. A LARGE AND STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WILL CAUSE THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR WILMA TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SPREAD...WITH THE GFS BEING THE NORTHERNMOST AND NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE....AND THE NOGAPS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN. AIR FORCE RECON OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OF WILMA...WHICH WAS DISRUPTED DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER THE EYE IS STILL QUITE LARGE...ABOUT 65 N MI ACROSS...AND RAGGED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE HURRICANE EMERGED FROM NORTHEAST YUCATAN...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS BASED ON PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 91 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND SOME RESPECT FOR A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED ALONG A NNE-SSW AXIS WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THIS MAY BE A HARBINGER OF INCREASING SHEAR...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT WILMA'S INNER CORE WILL BE ABLE TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY REDEVELOP...AND THAT SOME RESTRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR TODAY. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR AS WILMA NEARS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... WHICH...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER LOWER-LEVEL AIR... WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING. SINCE THE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH WILMA IS QUITE STRONG...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE BY ABOUT 48 HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 22.1N 86.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 24.7N 83.3W 85 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 27.4N 79.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/0600Z 43.0N 66.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/0600Z 47.5N 59.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/0600Z 49.0N 49.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 230910 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-230930- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA IS BACK OVER WATER...NOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS... HILLSBOROUGH...POLK... PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA AND 425 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. WILMA WAS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NO WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TODAY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTLINE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO A GUSTY NORTHERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ...SURGE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING POINTS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. LEE AND PERHAPS CHARLOTTE COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE OVERWASH AND SOME TIDAL FLOODING EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA APPROACHES. NORTH OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE AN OUTGOING TIDE WHICH MAY EXPOSE SANDBARS AND OTHER FEATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLETS...BAYS... AND HARBORS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... TODAY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM FEEDER BANDS WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MORE EXTENSIVE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY... RAINFALL MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD MAY PRODUCE A BIT MORE MINOR FLOODING. EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES OR HIGHER..MAINLY SOUTH OF A TAMPA BAY TO POLK COUNTY LINE. RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF WILMA ACROSS THE REGION. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...35 TO 60 KNOTS... TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE THREAT FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...64 KNOTS...IS GREATEST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS NOT EXPECTED FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY A LOW THREAT SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY IS EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STABLE CONDITIONS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM WHERE TROPICAL AIR IS MOST ABUNDANT. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 8 AM TODAY. $$ CP/RD ** WTUS82 KEYW 230915 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-231230- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 515 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. TORNADO IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. BE AWARE THAT HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 961 MB...OR 28.38 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IS OPEN FOR KEYS RESIDENTS. THERE WILL BE NO SHELTERS OPEN IN THE KEYS. THE AUTHORITIES RECOMMEND THAT YOU SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS CLOSED. THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT IS SCHEDULED TO CLOSE TO AIRCRAFT AT NOON TODAY. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL IS SCHEDULED TO HAVE ONE MORE PAID BUS DEPARTING KEY WEST TO MIAMI AT 845 AM TODAY. J G T BUS SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ITS REGULARLY SCHEDULED ROUTES AND PICK UP EVACUEES TO FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...FROM MARATHON TO KEY LARGO. J G T WILL ALSO PROVIDE SERVICES FROM KEY WEST TO MARATHON TODAY STARTING AT 900 AM AND LASTING AS LONG AS IT IS SAFE TO DRIVE THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. THE PICKUP POINT IN KEY WEST IS THE SEARSTOWN SHOPPING CENTER. THIS BUS WILL STOP TO PICK UP EVACUEES ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE OF U.S. ONE WHO SIGNAL THE DRIVER. ONCE EVACUEES ARRIVE IN MARATHON THEY WILL BE TRANSFERED TO ANOTHER BUS AND TAKEN TO THE F I U SHELTER. THIS SERVICE IS FREE TO ANYONE EVACUATING THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY CALL MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 1-800-955-5504...OR IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY HOTLINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL THROUGH THE MORNING. INCREASING SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. USE EXTRA CARE IN DRIVING OVER BRIDGES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE KEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. IF WILMA PASSES JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE KEYS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. VESSELS SHOULD BE TIED OFF WITH THIS IN MIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE NEAR 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON THE BAYSIDE IN THE TAVERNIER AND KEY LARGO AREA. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR... AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE IN TAVERNIER. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS...EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR TORNADO THREATS OVER THE KEYS WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ RIZZO/BROCK ** WTUS82 KJAX 230919 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-231530- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 516 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL... ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WILMA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST EARLY MONDAY AS A LARGE HURRICANE...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGE WIND FIELD AROUND WILMA WILL POSSIBLY BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL COUNTIES FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND SOUTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH AND BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES. MARINERS AND COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO REMAIN IN PORT BY LATE SUNDAY UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HIGHLY POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES. SURF WILL ALSO RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY. LOCAL INLETS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND INLAND ESTUARIES WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A RISE IN WATER LEVELS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE APPROACH OF WILMA WILL INCREASE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA AND MAY WISH TO MAKE PLANS TO SECURE VULNERABLE OBJECTS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE. $$ ECZ ** WTUS82 KMFL 231016 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-231600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 615 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATED SURGE INFORMATION UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS UPDATED WIND EFFECTS UPDATED COUNTY PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD RUSH THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO COMPLETION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT TODAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT TODAY. ADDITIONAL EVACUATION ORDERS MAY BE ISSUED TODAY AS THE FORECAST FOR WILMA BECOMES MORE CLEAR. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY. IN HENDRY COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS RECOMMENDED. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM TODAY. IN GLADES COUNTY...SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING THIS EVENING. A DECISION ON THE EXTENT OF THE EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE TODAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN AT NOON TODAY. SIX SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON ALONG WITH A PET-FRIENDLY SHELTER. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN SUB-STANDARD HOUSING...LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL BEGIN AT 1 PM EDT TODAY. SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 10 AM EDT. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1 PM EDT. IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS ON EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA AS A CATEGORY TWO OR ONE HURRICANE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST SOMEWHERE IN COLLIER COUNTY. A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 8 TO 13 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL MID MORNING MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF LOCAL ACCESS ROADS TO MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING STATE ROADS 92...951...953 AND 29 AND LARGE PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL U.S. HIGHWAY 41. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF LARGE PARTS OF NAPLES ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL AND MARCO ISLAND IS EXPECTED. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT CONCENTRATE ON THE EXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER BECAUSE THE ERROR INHERENT 24 HOURS AWAY FROM LANDFALL CAN BE AS MUCH AS 70 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF COLLIER COUNTY AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. IF YOU BELIEVE YOUR LOCATION IS POSSIBLY PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...THE BEST ACTION IS TO EVACUATE. A STORM TIDE AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED MID MORNING MONDAY IN THE TEN THOUSAND ISLANDS OF EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK. A STORM TIDE OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLAMINGO AREA MID MORNING MONDAY AND UP TO 10 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF CAPE SABLE. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INCLUDING MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES...A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED MID MORNING MONDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL PILE SOME WATER INTO THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY CAUSING SOME FLOODING OF CAUSEWAYS AND LOW LYING BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEE HOURS MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM TIDE OF 18 TO 20 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHICH WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS...IS EXPECTED WITH WILMA MID MORNING TO AROUND NOON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE WILL BE OCCURRING FROM THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK EAST TO BELLE GLADE AND SOUTH BAY INCLUDING CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION INCLUDING TORRY...KREAMER AND RITTA ISLANDS AND SOME ACCESS ROADS. THE LAKE LEVEL ON SATURDAY WAS 15.58 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER COLLIER COUNTY THIS EVENING...REACHING METRO MIAMI-DADE AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY METRO AREAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER THAN 74 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY...REACHING METRO MIAMI-DADE AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION SHORTLY AFTER DAWN AND THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH METRO AREAS MID MORNING ON MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...GENERALLY A FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND IN METRO PALM BEACH AND BROWARD BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO LIKELY. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PERSONS MUST NOT DRIVE OR WALK AROUND IN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. SEVERAL SOUTH FLORIDA DEATHS OCCURRED IN KATRINA WHEN PEOPLE DECIDED TO WALK AROUND TO WATCH TREES FALL IN STRONG WINDS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A 70 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS FROM 40 TO 55 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...IS FROM 10 TO 25 PERCENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THIS EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 16 FEET OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REACH HURRICANE FORCE...64 KNOTS...IN THE GULF WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH TODAY...BECOMING VERY ROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING AROUND NOON MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING MID MORNING MONDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS WILMA RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MARINERS SHOULD RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION FOR THE PROTECTION OF MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS. BE SURE TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IS COLLIER COUNTY...PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS... PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES WILL BE THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF WILMA. THE MOST DANGEROUS TIME FOR TORNADOES WILL BE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NOON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 12 NOON. $$ PFOST ** WTUS82 KTAE 231038 *** HLSTAE GMZ755-775-FLZ034-231700- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 626 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND...PARTICULARLY DIXIE COUNTY. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TODAY...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVEN THOUGH WILMA IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD... WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AS MUCH AS 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY... ESPECIALLY IF WILMA MAKE LANDFALL FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE WILMA AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF LANDFALL. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ALONG THE DIXIE COUNTY COAST...AS ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE PRIMARILY OFFSHORE WINDS. ...WIND IMPACTS... IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WARNED AREA WOULD BE PRIMARILY FROM A FEW DOWNED TREES AND TREE LIMBS...WHICH COULD CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND ROAD HAZARDS...AND ALSO DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES ON WHICH THEY FALL. MINOR WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES...AND NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS COULD BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED. LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS LIGHT PATIO FURNITURE OR TRASH CANS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED RAPID MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE WILMA...AND THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WILL BE LOCATED ON THE GENERALLY DRIER NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STORM...NO HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOOD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY NOT EXCEED ONE INCH. ...TORNADO THREAT... THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AREA. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS NO RIP CURRENT THREAT EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING DIXIE COUNTY. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 1 PM EDT. $$ FOURNIER ** WTNT35 KNHC 231137 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALPHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...ALPHA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ALFA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES... 35 KM...WEST-NORTHWST OF THE CITY OF BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ALPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. A METEOROLOGICAL STATION IN THE CITY OF BARAHONA REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...85 KM/HR AS THE CENTER OF ALPHA MOVED NEARBY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...18.4 N... 71.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 231155 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOT YET STRENGTHENING... ...NEW WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA GRUESA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO PROGRESO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CANCUN MEXICO AND ABOUT 315 MILES... 505 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056...LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 185 MILES... 295 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF WILMA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 47 MPH... 76 KM/HR. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...22.4 N... 86.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 961 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$