** WTCA44 TJSJ 230000 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 30A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SABADO 22 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...EL CENTRO DE WILMA MOVIENDOSE FUERA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...SE ESPERA QUE SE VUELVA A INTENSIFICAR... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY HACIA EL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE TITUSVILLE HACIA EL SUR... INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. TAMBIEN CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA... INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS Y FLORIDA BAY. PODRIAN REQUERIRSE AVISOS DE HURACAN PARA PARTES DE ESTA AREA MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL RIO STEINHATCHEE...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE TUTUSVILLE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PROVINCIA DE MATANZAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS PRONTO. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.0 OESTE... COMO A 30 MILLAS...50 KILOMETROS AL NORTE-NOROESTE DE CANCUN MEXICO...O COMO A 390 MILLAS... 630 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH... 5 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORESTE SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPORTES DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE NOAA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y WILMA PODRIA VOLVER A OBTENER INTENSIDAD DE CATEGORIA TRES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MAS RECIENTE REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE NOAA FUE DE 959 MILIBARAS...28.32 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CONTINUARAN CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL OJO A LO LARGO DEL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. ESTAS INUNDACIONES DEBEN COMENZAR A DISMINUIR A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE WILMA SE ALEJA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON TOTALES MAXIMOS AISLADOS ACERCANDOSE A LAS 50 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS SE ESPERA QUE SEA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS... CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE ALREDEDOR DE 12 PULGADAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA SE HAN PROPAGADO BIEN HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS POSIBLEMENTE AFECTARAN A PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO ESTA NOCHE Y EL DOMINGO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL PROXIMO PAR DE DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 PM CDT...21.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 959 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 221800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 230005 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SABADO 22 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA LINEA COSTERA DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...Y PARA TURKS Y CAICOS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 69.5 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS...115 KM...AL SUR DE SANTODOMINGO EN L;A REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ALPHA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE PATRON DE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y DEBERA LLEVAR AL CENTRO DE ALPHA A LA COSTA DE LA ESPANOLA TARDE ESTA NOCHE O BIEN TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE QUE SE FORTALEZCA UN POCO ANTES DE QUE EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL LLEGUE A LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA. LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENACEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...17.4 NORTE...69.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE A 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTCA45 TJSJ 230006 CCA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 2A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SABADO 22 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA LINEA COSTERA DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...Y PARA TURKS Y CAICOS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 69.5 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS...115 KM...AL SUR DE SANTODOMINGO EN L;A REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ALPHA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE PATRON DE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y DEBERA LLEVAR AL CENTRO DE ALPHA A LA COSTA DE LA ESPANOLA TARDE ESTA NOCHE O BIEN TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE QUE SE FORTALEZCA UN POCO ANTES DE QUE EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL LLEGUE A LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA. LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENACEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...17.4 NORTE...69.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE A 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTUS82 KEYW 230017 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-230330- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 830 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST...ABOUT 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 390 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA WAS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY THREE STATUS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 959 MB...OR 28.32 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS BEGAN TODAY AT 12 PM ACROSS THE LOWER AND AT 3 PM ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS...AND AT 6 PM ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN...JUST FOLLOW THE SIGNS. THERE WILL BE NO SHELTERS OPEN IN THE KEYS. THE AUTHORITIES RECOMMEND THAT YOU SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS CLOSED. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE LAST BUS WILL LEAVE TOMORROW MORNING AT 845 AM. MUNICIPAL BUS SERVICE IS AVAILABLE TO RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT HAVE TRANSPORTATION. FOR DETAILS...YOU MAY CALL THE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE 1-800-955-5504...OR IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY HOTLINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE LIKELY BY MORNING. DRIVERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CARE IN DRIVING OVER BRIDGES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE KEYS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. VESSELS SHOULD BE TIED OFF WITH THIS IN MIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OUR GUIDANCE PREDICTS A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...AND 208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS...EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FUTTERMAN ** WTNT45 KNHC 230228 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 HALF OF AN EYEWALL-LIKE FEATURE WAS VISIBLE ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR AS ALPHA WAS MOVING OUT OF RANGE A COUPLE HOURS AGO...WITH SIMILAR ROTATION BRIEFLY OBSERVED WITHIN THE VERY COLD TOPS OF ITS CORE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE NO HIGHER THAN 35 KT AT 00Z...THE RADAR SIGNATURE SUGGESTS THAT ALPHA COULD HAVE A VERY SMALL CORE OF STRONGER WINDS AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO 45 KT. A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE 6 OR SO HOURS BEFORE ALPHA REACHES HISPANIOLA. ALPHA'S SMALL CIRCULATION SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA...AND IS IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE ISLAND. ASSUMING THAT IT SURVIVES INTO THE ATLANTIC...ALPHA WILL FIND ITSELF IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS IT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE WILMA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND EVEN THOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY HAVE DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CIRCULATION TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10. ALPHA IS NEARING THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE WILMA APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE SURFACE AND UPPER CIRCULATIONS MAY DECOUPLE DURING THE INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. ALPHA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING EVENT OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A STRONG LIKLIHOOD OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD-SLIDES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 17.7N 70.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 18.9N 71.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 24/0000Z 22.0N 72.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 73.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 25/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN CIRCULATION OF WILMA $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 230229 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005 0300Z SUN OCT 23 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 70.1W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 70.1W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 69.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.9N 71.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 72.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 73.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 70.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 230229 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ALPHA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.0N 72.5W 58 2 X X 60 MUGM 200N 751W 2 X X X 2 26.0N 73.0W X 46 X X 46 MDPP 198N 707W 68 X X X 68 MDSD 185N 697W 99 X X X 99 MBJT 215N 712W 52 1 X X 53 MDCB 176N 714W 77 X X X 77 MYMM 224N 730W 51 6 X X 57 MTPP 186N 724W 63 X X X 63 MYSM 241N 745W 4 34 X X 38 MTCA 183N 738W 3 X X X 3 MYEG 235N 758W 1 8 X X 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 230233 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBA PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. AT 11 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 85 KM NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 375 MILES... 605 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND WILMA COULD AGAIN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT THE ISLA MUJERES MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 53 MPH... 86 KM/HR... WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH... 111 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 86.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 230233 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0300Z SUN OCT 23 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBA PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. AT 11 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 86.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 70 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 300SE 125SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 86.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 87.0W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 86.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 84.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.3N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 30.5N 77.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 41.0N 66.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 46.0N 55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 46.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 86.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 230234 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.0N 84.6W 50 3 X X 53 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 13 13 26.3N 81.5W 2 36 6 X 44 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 11 11 30.5N 77.0W X X 22 6 28 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 10 10 MUSN 216N 826W 1 2 X X 3 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 11 11 MUHA 230N 824W 7 14 X X 21 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 10 10 MUAN 219N 850W 44 X X X 44 NANTUCKET MA X X X 12 12 MMCZ 205N 869W 45 X X X 45 HYANNIS MA X X X 11 11 MYNN 251N 775W X X 3 X 3 BOSTON MA X X X 9 9 MYGF 266N 787W X 4 18 X 22 PORTLAND ME X X X 7 7 BERMUDA X X X 2 2 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 6 6 MARATHON FL 1 24 5 X 30 EASTPORT ME X X X 5 5 MIAMI FL X 21 11 1 33 ST JOHN NB X X X 4 4 W PALM BEACH FL X 20 17 X 37 MONCTON NB X X X 2 2 FT PIERCE FL X 20 20 X 40 YARMOUTH NS X X X 6 6 COCOA BEACH FL X 17 23 X 40 HALIFAX NS X X X 3 3 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 8 25 X 33 KEY WEST FL 6 27 2 X 35 JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 14 1 16 MARCO ISLAND FL 3 37 4 X 44 SAVANNAH GA X X 8 1 9 FT MYERS FL 2 38 5 X 45 CHARLESTON SC X X 9 4 13 VENICE FL 2 35 5 X 42 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 7 9 16 TAMPA FL X 25 10 X 35 WILMINGTON NC X X 5 13 18 CEDAR KEY FL X 7 9 X 16 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 3 17 20 ST MARKS FL X X 2 X 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 1 19 20 GULF 29N 85W X 1 1 X 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 14 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM SUN TO 7AM MON C FROM 7AM MON TO 7PM MON D FROM 7PM MON TO 7PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 230235 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...ALPHA STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ALPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE CENTER OF ALPHA INLAND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES ... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 70.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT84 KNHC 230249 *** TCVAT4 WILMA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 .HURRICANE WILMA FLC009-061-111-AMZ550-570-575-230900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 JUPITER-FL 26.93N 80.09W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ FLC011-015-021-027-071-086-087-099-115-AMZ630-650-651-670-671-GMZ031- 033-656-657-676-853-856-873-876-230900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1024.051023T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W JUPITER-FL 26.93N 80.09W $$ FLC085-AMZ555-230900- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1024.051023T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 JUPITER-FL 26.93N 80.09W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ FLC017-029-053-057-075-081-101-103-GMZ755-775-830-850-870-230900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1024.051023T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-127-AMZ452-454-472-474-230900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ AMZ610-230900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1024.051023T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-230900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1024.051023T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...EYW...TBW...TAE...MLB...MFL... ** WTNT44 KNHC 230302 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 THE CENTER OF WILMA HAS MOVED OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLIER REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 959 MB...WITH MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT 30-35 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE PLANE ALSO REPORTED THE REMAINS OF AN INNER EYEWALL...AND AN OUTER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER VARYING BETWEEN 60-80 N MI. SINCE THE CENTER LEFT THE COAST... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER EYEWALLS...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION TO JUSTIFY INCREASING THE WINDS. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAWINSONDE DATA SHOW THAT THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS. THIS TROUGH SHOULD TURN WILMA TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK OF WILMA...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHERE IN FLORIDA THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL. THE 18Z GFS IS WELL TO THE LEFT...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS WELL TO THE RIGHT...CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO CROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE 18Z GFDL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. WILMA SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC... AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE EASTWARD AT HIGH LATITUDE AFTER 96 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. WILMA IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO FINISH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT BEGAN ALMOST 48 HR AGO. THE LARGE SIZE OF THE OUTER EYEWALL ARGUES AGAINST RAPID STRENGTHENING...EVEN THOUGH THE EYE WILL BE CROSSING THE LOOP CURRENT. AFTER 24 HR...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND REPORTS FROM THE NOAA G4 JET SHOW THAT DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR IS LURKING JUST WEST OF WILMA AND COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM NEAR THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING...BRINGING THE STORM TO 95 KT NEAR LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WILMA TO 100 KT IN 24 HR AND THEN WEAKENING A LITTLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WILMA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT COULD HIT AS A CATEGORY THREE. AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...NEW WARNING AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAHAMAS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 21.8N 86.9W 85 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 86.3W 90 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 24.0N 84.6W 100 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 26.3N 81.5W 90 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 77.0W 75 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 26/0000Z 41.0N 66.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/0000Z 46.0N 55.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/0000Z 46.0N 42.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTUS82 KJAX 230306 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-230930- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1106 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL... ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST. WILMA IS MOVING NORTH AROUND 3 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WILMA TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WILMA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST EARLY MONDAY AS A LARGE HURRICANE...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGE WIND FIELD AROUND WILMA WILL POSSIBLY BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL COUNTIES FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH ON MONDAY. MARINERS AND COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INTERESTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION AS A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKEY NEED TO REMAIN IN PORT BY LATE SUNDAY UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HIGHLY POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH. SURF WILL ALSO RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET EXPECTED ON MONDAY IN THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. LOCAL INLETS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND INLAND ESTUARIES WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A RISE IN WATER LEVELS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE APPROACH OF WILMA WILL INCREASE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA AND MAY WISH TO MAKE PLANS TO SECURE VULNERABLE OBJECTS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 AM SUNDAY FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE. $$ ARS/ENYEDI ** WTUS82 KEYW 230308 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-230630- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1130 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS....INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST...ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 375 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 959 MB...OR 28.32 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS BEGAN TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN...JUST FOLLOW THE SIGNS. THERE WILL BE NO SHELTERS OPEN IN THE KEYS. THE AUTHORITIES RECOMMEND THAT YOU SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS CLOSED. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LAST GREYHOUND BUS WILL LEAVE SUNDAY MORNING AT 845 AM. MUNICIPAL BUS SERVICE IS AVAILABLE TO RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT HAVE TRANSPORTATION. J G T WILL CONTINUE THEIR REGULARLY SCHEDULED ROUTES AND PICK UP EVACUEES TO FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...FROM MARATHON TO KEY LARGO. J G T WILL PROVIDE ONE FINAL BUS TO PICK UP EVACUEES AT 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE SEARSTOWN SHOPPING CENTER IN KEY WEST. THIS BUS WILL STOP TO PICK UP EVACUEES ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE OF U.S. ONE WHO SIGNAL THE DRIVER. ONCE EVACUEES ARRIVE IN MARATHON THEY WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO ANOTHER BUS AND TAKEN TO THE FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY SHELTER IN MIAMI DADE COUNTY. FOR 1-800-955-5504...OR IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY HOTLINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE LIKELY BY MORNING. DRIVERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CARE IN DRIVING OVER BRIDGES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE KEYS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. VESSELS SHOULD BE TIED OFF WITH THIS IN MIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...WITH NEAR 8 FEET ON THE BAYSIDE IN THE TAVERNIER AND KEY LARGO AREA. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR...AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE IN TAVERNIER. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS...EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA...ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF OCCURRENCE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FUTTERMAN ** WTCA44 TJSJ 230310 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 31 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SABADO 22 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS Y FLORIDA BAY. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY HACIA EL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE JUPITER INLET HACIA EL SUR...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PROVINCIA DE MATANZAS. A LAS 11 PM EDT...ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO LAS ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLAND...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...Y NEW PROVIDENCE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL NORTE DE JUPITER INLET HASTA TITUSVILLE. POSIBLEMENTE SERAN REQUERIDOS AVISOS DE HURACAN PARA ESTA AREA EL DOMINGO EN LA MANANA. A LAS 11 PM EDT...ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA STEINHATCHEE RIVER. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE TUTUSVILLE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN AVANZAR A SER COMPLETADOS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.9 OESTE... COMO A 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS AL NORTE DE CANCUN MEXICO. ESTO TAMBIEN ES COMO A 375 MILLAS... 605 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH... 6 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASALCION MAYOR EL DOMINGO. ESTE MOVIMIENTO LLEVARA EL CENTRO FUERA DE LA PENINUSULA DE YUCATAN ESTA NOCHE Y EL DOMINGO EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y WILMA PODRIA VOLVER A CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN MAYOR EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. UNA ESTACION AUTOMATIZADA EN LA ISLA MUJERES MEXICO RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 53 MPH... 86 KM/HR...CON UNA RAFAGA HASTA 69 MPH... 111 KM/HR. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 959 MILIBARAS...28.32 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 8 A 13 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE Y CERCA Y AL SUR DE DONDE EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRE A TIERRA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 8 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EN FLORIDA BAY...ASI COMO EN EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA A LO LARGO DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS DEBEN DISMINUIR A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE WILMA SE ALEJA. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON TOTALES MAXIMOS AISLADOS ACERCANDOSE A LAS 50 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS SE ESPERA QUE SEA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS... CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE ALREDEDOR DE 12 PULGADAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA CONTINUAN PROPAGANDOSE HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS PODRIAN AFECTAR A PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO ESTA NOCHE Y EL DOMINGO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL PROXIMO PAR DE DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...21.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 959 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 230316 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-230630- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...WITH HURRICANE WILMA NOW HEADING FOR THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS ALL WATCHES FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS... HILLSBOROUGH...POLK... PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...513 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA AND 465 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. WILMA WAS DRIFTING NORTH AT 3 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NO WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTLINE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO A GUSTY NORTHERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ...SURGE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING POINTS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY THIS AFTERNOON. TIDE LEVELS WILL FURTHER INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND RUN 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN THESE AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. LEE AND PERHAPS CHARLOTTE COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE OVERWASH AND TIDAL FLOODING EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA APPROACHES. NORTH OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE AN OUTGOING TIDE WHICH MAY EXPOSE SANDBARS AND OTHER FEATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLETS...BAYS...AND HARBORS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... ON SUNDAY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM FEEDER BANDS WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MORE EXTENSIVE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY...RAINFALL MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD MAY PRODUCE A BIT MORE MINOR FLOODING. EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES OR HIGHER..MAINLY SOUTH OF A TAMPA BAY TO POLK COUNTY LINE. RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF WILMA ACROSS THE REGION. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...35 TO 60 KNOTS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE THREAT FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...64 KNOTS...IS GREATEST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS NOT EXPECTED FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A LOW THREAT SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY IS EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STABLE CONDITIONS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM WHERE TROPICAL AIR IS MOST ABUNDANT. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 2 AM TONIGHT. $$ REYNES ** WTUS82 KEYW 230326 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-230630- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1130 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS....INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST...ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 375 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 959 MB...OR 28.32 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS BEGAN TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN...JUST FOLLOW THE SIGNS. THERE WILL BE NO SHELTERS OPEN IN THE KEYS. THE AUTHORITIES RECOMMEND THAT YOU SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS CLOSED. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LAST GREYHOUND BUS WILL LEAVE SUNDAY MORNING AT 845 AM. MUNICIPAL BUS SERVICE IS AVAILABLE TO RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT HAVE TRANSPORTATION. J G T WILL CONTINUE THEIR REGULARLY SCHEDULED ROUTES AND PICK UP EVACUEES TO FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...FROM MARATHON TO KEY LARGO. J G T WILL PROVIDE ONE FINAL BUS TO PICK UP EVACUEES AT 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE SEARSTOWN SHOPPING CENTER IN KEY WEST. THIS BUS WILL STOP TO PICK UP EVACUEES ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE OF U.S. ONE WHO SIGNAL THE DRIVER. ONCE EVACUEES ARRIVE IN MARATHON THEY WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO ANOTHER BUS AND TAKEN TO THE FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY SHELTER IN MIAMI DADE COUNTY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY CALL 1-800-955-5504...OR IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY HOTLINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE LIKELY BY MORNING. DRIVERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CARE IN DRIVING OVER BRIDGES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE KEYS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. VESSELS SHOULD BE TIED OFF WITH THIS IN MIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...WITH NEAR 8 FEET ON THE BAYSIDE IN THE TAVERNIER AND KEY LARGO AREA. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR...AND 217 AM THE TAVERNIER CREEK HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE IN TAVERNIER. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS...EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA...ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF OCCURRENCE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FUTTERMAN ** WTCA45 TJSJ 230327 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SABADO 22 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...ALPHA SE FORTALECE A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA A LA ESPANOLA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA LINEA COSTERA DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 70.1 OESTE O COMO A 55 MILLAS...90 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ALPHA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL LLEVE EL CENTRO DE ALPHA SOBRE TIERRA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO EN LA MANANA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE DESPUES DE QUE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO Y AHORA ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ANTES DE QUE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO RAPIDO SOBRE EL TERRENO MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA DESPUES QUE ENTRE A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 998 MILIBARAS...29.47 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENACEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...17.7 NORTE...70.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...998 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTNT84 KNHC 230346 *** TCVAT4 WILMA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 .HURRICANE WILMA FLC011-015-021-027-071-086-087-115-AMZ630-651-GMZ031-033-656-657- 676-853-856-873-876-230900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1024.051023T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ FLC009-061-085-111-AMZ550-555-570-575-230900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ FLC099-AMZ650-670-671-230900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1024.051023T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ FLC017-029-053-057-075-081-101-103-GMZ755-775-830-850-870-230900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1024.051023T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-127-AMZ452-454-472-474-230900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ AMZ610-230900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1024.051023T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-230900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1024.051023T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...EYW...TBW...TAE...MLB...MFL... ** WTUS82 KMLB 230359 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 231000- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1155 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...EAST CENTRAL FLORIDIANS SHOULD EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION... WARNINGS HAVE NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND EXTEND INLAND TO INCLUDE LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... ON THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE...WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT NORTH OF TITUSVILLE EXTENDING TO NEAR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA BORDER. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA AND ORANGE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE...SEMINOLE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN BREVARD...VOLUSIA...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN...INDIAN RIVER... OKEECHOBEE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 3 MPH WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. DURING SUNDAY...WILMA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE WILMA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA VERY EARLY ON MONDAY AND ACCELERATE VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY BE COMPLETED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...AS WEATHER WILL BE DETERIORATING RAPIDLY LATER IN THE DAY. CHECK WITH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THE LOCATIONS OF SHELTERS... PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE WITH SPECIAL NEEDS AND PEOPLE LIVING IN MANUFACTURED OR MOBILE HOMES. BREVARD COUNTY HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE AND MANUFACTURED HOMES AND WILL BE OPENING SHELTERS AT 10 AM SUNDAY. DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS THE AREA OF GREATEST IMPACT WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA IMPLEMENT YOUR ACTION PLAN AND EXPECT THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT GET CAUGHT OFF-GUARD OR DELAY YOUR ACTIONS. DO NOT ASSUME A WAIT AND SEE ATTITUDE AS THERE MAY NOT BE TIME TO REACT IF THERE IS ANY DEVIATION TO THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDIANS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. ...WIND IMPACTS... OVERALL...THE GREATEST THREAT FROM WILMA ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS THE THREAT FOR DESTRUCTIVE WIND. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELD IS VERY LARGE WITH WILMA AND THEREFORE WILL ARRIVE WELL BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE CORE WINDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...MARTIN... SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD ACROSS BREVARD...ORANGE...LAKE... SEMINOLE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES STARTING BEFORE 8 AM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES BY MID MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. BECAUSE THE OF THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA...WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE RIGHT. IT IS LIKELY A BAND OF VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 100 MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. IMPORTANTLY...THE LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST WIND IMPACT WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL MONDAY MORNING AND BY THAT TIME WILMA WILL BE MOVING VERY FAST. DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER TRACK. TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... LATE SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES APPROACHING FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A GREATER RISK OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND FAST FORWARD SPEED AS IS ANTICIPATED WITH WILMA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH OUTER RAINBANDS SUNDAY AND THEN TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE LATER SUNDAY AND BE THE HIGHEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CENTRAL RAINBANDS OF WILMA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THE ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WARNINGS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND TAKE THEM SERIOUSLY. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL ARRIVE BEFORE THE MAIN WIND THREAT. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF WILMA WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES MAY OCCUR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF WILMA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SETTING UP IN OUTER RAINBANDS THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WHILE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR ...IT APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...OR IN AN AREA THAT IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...DO WHAT IS NECESSARY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL ARRIVE BEFORE THE MAIN WIND THREAT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA AND THE MOVEMENT OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC...STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OF HIGH IMPACT. HOWEVER...A STORM TIDE OF PERHAPS 3 OR 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AROUND MID DAY MONDAY NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES OFFSHORE. EXTREMELY ROUGH SURF...BEACH EROSION...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES AS WILMA MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. ...MARINE IMPACTS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM FOR MARINERS DUE TO ITS RAPID APPROACH AND ACCELERATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME HAZARDOUS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING SEAS AND THEN BECOME EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ON MONDAY AS WILMA MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS PERHAPS MOVING AS FAST AS 30 KNOTS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE REGULAR ISSUANCE OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN SUSPENDED UNTIL AFTER WILMA PASSES. ALL HAZARDOUS WEATHER INFORMATION FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE CONTAINED IN HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY NWS MELBOURNE BY 6 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON WILMA LOCAL INFO. $$ DWS ** WTUS82 KMFL 230411 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-231030- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1200 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS: COLLIER...GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WARNINGS...STORM INFORMATION...AND LOCAL IMPACT SECTIONS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ALL LOCAL IMPACTS DEPICTED BELOW IN THIS STATEMENT ARE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...TIMING..AND INTENSITY IN WILMA'S FORECAST. ANY DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST COULD ALTER THE DEPICTED LOCAL IMPACTS. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY TUNED AS THIS STATEMENT IS UPDATED EVERY 3 TO 6 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA PARTICULARLY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THIS CASE. RESIDENTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO PLACE NOT LATER THAN EARLY ON SUNDAY. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY. IN HENDRY COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS RECOMMENDED. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM SUNDAY. IN GLADES COUNTY...SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING SUNDAY EVENING. A DECISION ON THE EXTENT OF THE EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE ON SUNDAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN AT NOON SUNDAY. SIX SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A PET-FRIENDLY SHELTER. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN SUBSTANDARD HOUSING... LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL COMMENCE AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY. SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 10 AM EDT SUNDAY. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY. IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS ON EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE EARLY SUNDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK...SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL STORM TIDE OF 9 TO 12 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY COASTS...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH THROUGH FLAMINGO...ASSUMING THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL OR APPROACHES THE COAST AS A CATEGORY 2 EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS EXPECTED AROUND 4 TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF TAMIAMI TRAIL. OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM SURGE OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE. ON THE EAST COAST...STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES AS FORECAST. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY START AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN MONDAY MORNING HOURS... THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE LATE MORNING MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM WINDS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS... AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS FROM 50 TO 65 PERCENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 16 FEET OFFSHORE...AND WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE FORCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ON SUNDAY...BECOMING VERY ROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY OFF THE PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AROUND MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE FLOOD IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE PROVIDED IN FURTHER UPDATES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING LATER SUNDAY...AND COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE STATE AND RAIN BANDS BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING. $$ PS ** WTUS82 KTAE 230451 *** HLSTAE FLZ034-230745- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1149 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND...PARTICULARLY DIXIE COUNTY. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING INLAND DIXIE COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 375 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. WILMA WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OUT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND PICK UP SPEED ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVEN THOUGH WILMA IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD... WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS EXTENDING AS MUCH AS 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH COULD BE FELT ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY...AS WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. RESIDENTS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BY SECURING LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS...LAWN AND DECK FURNITURE...AND ANY OTHER LOOSE OR LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS THAT COULD BE PICKED UP AND BLOWN AROUND SHOULD TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AFFECT THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE WILMA AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF LANDFALL. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ALONG THE DIXIE COUNTY COAST...AS ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE PRIMARILY OFFSHORE WINDS. ...WIND IMPACTS... IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WARNED AREA WOULD BE PRIMARILY FROM DOWNED TREES AND TREE LIMBS...WHICH COULD CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND ROAD HAZARDS...AND ALSO DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES ON WHICH THEY FALL. MINOR WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES...AND NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS COULD BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED RAPID MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE WILMA...AND THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WILL BE LOCATED ON THE GENERALLY DRIER NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STORM...NO HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOOD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...TORNADO THREAT... THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AREA. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS NO RIP CURRENT THREAT EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING DIXIE COUNTY. THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 7 AM EDT (6 AM CDT). $$ DUVAL ** WTUS82 KMFL 230453 CCA *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-231030- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1200 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS: COLLIER...GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WARNINGS...STORM INFORMATION...AND LOCAL IMPACT SECTIONS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI DADE...GLADES...HENDRY...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ALL LOCAL IMPACTS DEPICTED BELOW IN THIS STATEMENT ARE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...TIMING..AND INTENSITY IN WILMA'S FORECAST. ANY DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST COULD ALTER THE DEPICTED LOCAL IMPACTS. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY TUNED AS THIS STATEMENT IS UPDATED EVERY 3 TO 6 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA PARTICULARLY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THIS CASE. RESIDENTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO PLACE NOT LATER THAN EARLY ON SUNDAY. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY. IN HENDRY COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS RECOMMENDED. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM SUNDAY. IN GLADES COUNTY...SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING SUNDAY EVENING. A DECISION ON THE EXTENT OF THE EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE ON SUNDAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN AT NOON SUNDAY. SIX SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A PET-FRIENDLY SHELTER. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN SUBSTANDARD HOUSING...LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL COMMENCE AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY. SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 10 AM EDT SUNDAY. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY. IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS ON EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE EARLY SUNDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK...SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL STORM TIDE OF 9 TO 12 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY COASTS...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH THROUGH FLAMINGO...ASSUMING THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL OR APPROACHES THE COAST AS A CATEGORY 2 EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS EXPECTED AROUND 4 TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF TAMIAMI TRAIL. OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM SURGE OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE. ON THE EAST COAST...STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES AS FORECAST. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY START AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN MONDAY MORNING HOURS...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE LATE MORNING MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM WINDS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS FROM 50 TO 65 PERCENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 16 FEET OFFSHORE...AND WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE FORCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ON SUNDAY...BECOMING VERY ROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY OFF THE PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AROUND MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE FLOOD IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE PROVIDED IN FURTHER UPDATES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING LATER SUNDAY...AND COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE STATE AND RAIN BANDS BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING. $$ PS ** WTNT80 EGRR 230522 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM ALPHA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 68.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.10.2005 17.1N 68.4W WEAK 12UTC 23.10.2005 17.6N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2005 18.4N 70.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 87.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.10.2005 21.8N 87.0W STRONG 12UTC 23.10.2005 22.1N 86.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2005 23.6N 84.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.10.2005 25.2N 81.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2005 29.3N 77.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.10.2005 36.2N 72.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.10.2005 43.7N 68.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.10.2005 49.5N 64.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 27.10.2005 49.3N 64.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 27.10.2005 50.0N 60.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.10.2005 52.5N 48.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.10.2005 53.4N 44.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.10.2005 54.0N 39.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230522 ** WTNT35 KNHC 230544 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALPHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...ALPHA NEARING HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ALPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE CENTER OF ALPHA INLAND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES ... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.8 N... 70.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 230550 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 3A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT DOMINGO 23 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...ALPHA ACERCANDOSE A LA ESPANOLA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA LINEA COSTERA DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 70.5 OESTE O COMO A 60 MILLAS...95 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ALPHA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL LLEVE EL CENTRO DE ALPHA SOBRE TIERRA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO EN LA MANANA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE DESPUES DE QUE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCOA CAMBIO EN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ANTES DE QUE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA Y SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO RAPIDO SOBRE EL TERRENO MONTANOSO DE LA ESPANOLA DESPUES QUE ENTRE A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 998 MILIBARAS...29.47 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENACEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...17.8 NORTE...70.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...998 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTNT34 KNHC 230559 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF YUCATAN...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WEST OF SAN FELIPE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA GRUESA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 370 MILES... 600 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT... DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$