** WTNT35 KNHC 221800 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... AT 2 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS... AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 380 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH... 24 KM/HR... AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.2 N... 68.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 221809 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 29A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT SABADO 22 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILL AUN SOBRE TIERRA AND MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE SOBRE YUCATAN... ...VIENTOS HURACANADOS HAN PERSISTIDO SOBRE YUCATAN POR LAS ULTIMAS 24 HORAS... EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS Y FLORIDA BAY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PROBABLEMENTE SE REQUIERA UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA ESTA TARDE. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA DEBERAN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DEL HURACAN WILMA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LA 1 PM CDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.0 OESTE JUSTO AL OESTE DE CANCUN MEXICO...O COMO A 400 MILLAS... 645 KM...AL SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE AL NORTE...Y SE ESPERA UNA TRAYECTORIA LENTA HACIA EL NORTE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE WILMA CONTINUARA CASTIGANDO SEVERAMENTE A PORCIONES DEL EXTREMO NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN TODO EL DIA DE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE...Y LUEGO SALDRA POR EL NORTE DE LA PENINSULA HACIA EL GOLFO DE MEXICO ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO Y ESTAN AHORA EN CERCA DE 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA...PERO PODRIA OCURRIR ALGUN REFORTALECIMIENTO ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO UNA VEZ QUE WILMA SALGA AL GOLFO DE MEXICO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. LA BOYA NOAA 42057 EN LA PARTE NOROCCIDENTAL DEL MAR CARIBE...COMO A 150 MILLAS AL SURESTE DEL CENTRO DE WILMA... RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 47 MPH...76 KM/HR. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 953 MILIBARAS...28.14 PULGADAS. HABRA MAREJADA CICLONICA EN LA COSTA DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CONTINUANDO CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL OJO A LO LARGO DE LA PARTE NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS POSIBLES DE HASTA CERCA DE 50 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA SE ESPERA QUE SEA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON TOTALES AISLADOS ALREDEDOR DE 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA SE HAN PROPAGADO BIEN HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS POSIBLEMENTE AFECTARAN PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 PM CDT...21.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 110 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 953 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTCA45 TJSJ 221823 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SABADO 22 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION NUMERO 25 ACERCANDOSE A INTENSIDAD DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 2 PM EDT...EL GOBIERNO DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HA CAMBIADO PORCIONES DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE CABO ENGANO AL NOROESTE HASTA CABO FRANCES VIEJO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE CABO ENGANO AL OESTE HASTA PERDENALES EN LA FRONTERA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA COSTA DE HAITI. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA LAS BAHAMAS EN EL SURESTE. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICINCO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.8 OESTE O COMO A 235 MILLAS... 380 KM... AL SUROESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO Y COMO A 175 MILLAS... 280 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...55 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAJECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE ESTE CICLON SE ESPERA PASE CERCA O SOBRE LA ESPANOLA TARDE ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA TORNANDO MEJOR ORGANIZADA Y PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS LUEGO ESTA TARDE. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...16.2 NORTE...68.8 OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS 35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTUS82 KMFL 221824 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-222200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 224 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...HEADLINE... ...HURRICANE WILMA STILL OVER THE YUCATAN AND DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS: COLLIER...GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION AND EVACUATION AND SHELTER UPDATES FOR COLLIER AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS YET IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ALL OF FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD AND A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY. IN HENDRY COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS RECOMMENDED. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM SUNDAY. IN GLADES COUNTY...SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING SUNDAY EVENING. A DECISION ON THE EXTENT OF THE EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN AT NOON SUNDAY. A MINIMUM OF THREE SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A PET-FRIENDLY SHELTER. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN SUBSTANDARD HOUSING... LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL COMMENCE AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY. SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 10 AM EDT SUNDAY. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY. IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS ON EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THIS STAGE...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE A WEATHER WATCH AND STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND RESTOCK PROVISIONS SUCH AS... BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS DRINKING WATER...A GALLON PER PERSON PER DAY CANNED OR DRIED FOOD FIRST AID SUPPLIES PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE CASH...BECAUSE CREDIT CARDS AND ATM'S MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS. WHEN HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED...THAT WILL BE THE TIME TO RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE WIND IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER... WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A 60 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH...IS FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE MARINE IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER... MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE FLOOD IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE PROVIDED IN FURTHER UPDATES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS... PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STORM STRUCTURE AND TRACK AS IT APPROACHES THE PENINSULA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM TODAY. $$ PFOST/MOLLEDA ** WTUS82 KMFL 221831 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-222200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED TIME OF STORM INFORMATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 231 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...HEADLINE... ...HURRICANE WILMA STILL OVER THE YUCATAN AND DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS: COLLIER...GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION AND EVACUATION AND SHELTER UPDATES FOR COLLIER AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS YET IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ALL OF FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD AND A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY. IN HENDRY COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS RECOMMENDED. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM SUNDAY. IN GLADES COUNTY...SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING SUNDAY EVENING. A DECISION ON THE EXTENT OF THE EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN AT NOON SUNDAY. A MINIMUM OF THREE SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A PET-FRIENDLY SHELTER. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN SUBSTANDARD HOUSING...LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL COMMENCE AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY. SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 10 AM EDT SUNDAY. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY. IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS ON EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THIS STAGE...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE A WEATHER WATCH AND STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND RESTOCK PROVISIONS SUCH AS... BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS DRINKING WATER...A GALLON PER PERSON PER DAY CANNED OR DRIED FOOD FIRST AID SUPPLIES PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE CASH...BECAUSE CREDIT CARDS AND ATM'S MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS. WHEN HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED...THAT WILL BE THE TIME TO RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE WIND IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER... WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A 60 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH...IS FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE MARINE IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER... MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE FLOOD IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE PROVIDED IN FURTHER UPDATES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS... PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STORM STRUCTURE AND TRACK AS IT APPROACHES THE PENINSULA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM TODAY. $$ PFOST/MOLLEDA ** WTUS82 KEYW 221833 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-222130- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST...ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA WAS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 953 MB...OR 28.14 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS BEGAN AT NOON TODAY. IT STARTED WITH THE LOWER KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. THEN AT 300 PM THE MIDDLE KEYS SHOULD GO...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE LONG KEY VIADUCT...AND AT 600 PM THE UPPER KEYS FROM LONG KEY TO OCEAN REEF. BY GOING IN STAGES WE CAN AVOID A TRAFFIC JAM. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN...JUST FOLLOW THE SIGNS. THERE WILL BE NO SHELTERS OPEN IN THE KEYS. THE AUTHORITIES RECOMMEND THAT YOU SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST AIRPORT HAS CLOSED. GREYHOUND WILL CONTINUE SERVICE TODAY. MUNICIPAL BUS SERVICE IS AVAILABLE TO RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT HAVE TRANSPORTATION. FOR DETAILS...YOU MAY CALL THE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE 1-800-955-5504...OR IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY HOTLINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL REQUIRE EXTRA CARE IN DRIVING OVER BRIDGES. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS WINDS GO INTO THE WEST. VESSELS SHOULD BE TIED OFF WITH THIS IN MIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OUR GUIDANCE PREDICTS A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...AND 208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS...EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM/AD ** WTNT80 EGRR 221940 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.10.2005 EXTRA COMMENTS - PLEASE NOTE, THE ACTUAL POSITION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25 DID NOT GO INTO THE ANALYSIS OF OUR MODEL AT 1200Z 22ND, AND AS A RESULT IT DID NOT PRODUCE A LOW CENTRE, OR A FORECAST. THE DUTY FORECASTER INTERPOLATED THE POSITIONS OF TD 25 UNTIL 1200 25TH WHEN THE MODEL DOES DEVELOP A LOW AT 17.4N 76.8W. HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TD 25 BUT A NEW LOW DEVELOPING FROM A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN, AND MAY NOT BE A TD ANYWAY. HOPEFULLY AT 00Z TONIGHT THE POSITION WILL BE ANALYSED BY OUR MODEL AND A FORECAST MAY THEN BE CREATED BY OUR MODEL, BUT I THOUGHT IT WOULD BE USEFUL INFORMATION TO INFORM YOU THAT OUR MODEL DOES NOT DEVELOP TD 25, MANILY BECAUSE IT DID NOT GET INTO OUR ANALYSIS, AND PROBABLY BECAUSE THE CONDITIONS FOR IT TO DEVELOP ARE PROBABLY FAIRLY MARGINAL, BEING SO CLOSE TO WILMA. THE POSITIONS BELOW ARE THE POSITIONS OF THE NEW LOW THAT DEVELOPS AT T+72, WHICH YOU MAY FIND OF INTEREST, BUT I SUGGEST THAT YOU IGNORE THE POSITIONS BEFORE T+72 AND I WILL SEND AN UPDATE. I HOPE THIS EXTRA INFORMATION IS OF USE. REGARDS, ROBIN THWAYTES, DUTY FORECASTER. VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.10.2005 17.4N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2005 13.9N 77.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2005 12.2N 78.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.10.2005 12.6N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.10.2005 12.3N 78.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.10.2005 13.3N 78.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.10.2005 13.8N 78.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 221940 ** WTNT24 KNHC 222046 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 2100Z SAT OCT 22 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY NORTHWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER... AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 87.1W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 75 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..375NE 300SE 100SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 87.1W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 87.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.9N 86.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.1N 85.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.9N 83.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.8N 79.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.0N 69.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 45.0N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 49.0N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 87.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 222047 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.1N 85.7W 47 X X X 47 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 18 18 24.9N 83.5W 6 27 4 X 37 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 17 17 27.8N 79.6W X 1 24 4 29 NORFOLK VA X X X 13 13 MUCF 221N 805W X X 3 X 3 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 11 11 MUSN 216N 826W 1 5 3 X 9 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 9 9 MUHA 230N 824W 1 14 6 1 22 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 7 7 MUAN 219N 850W 35 1 X X 36 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 6 6 MMCZ 205N 869W 99 X X X 99 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 5 5 MYAK 241N 776W X X 2 2 4 NANTUCKET MA X X X 5 5 MYNN 251N 775W X X 4 4 8 HYANNIS MA X X X 5 5 MYGF 266N 787W X X 17 5 22 BOSTON MA X X X 4 4 BERMUDA X X X 2 2 PORTLAND ME X X X 2 2 MARATHON FL X 9 16 X 25 KEY WEST FL X 16 12 X 28 MIAMI FL X 4 22 1 27 MARCO ISLAND FL X 15 18 1 34 W PALM BEACH FL X 2 25 2 29 FT MYERS FL X 15 19 X 34 FT PIERCE FL X 2 26 3 31 VENICE FL X 16 18 X 34 COCOA BEACH FL X 2 26 3 31 TAMPA FL X 8 21 1 30 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 22 4 27 CEDAR KEY FL X 3 17 2 22 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 12 8 20 ST MARKS FL X X 6 2 8 SAVANNAH GA X X 4 11 15 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 4 1 6 CHARLESTON SC X X 2 14 16 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 1 3 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 1 16 17 GULF 29N 85W X 2 7 1 10 WILMINGTON NC X X X 17 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON C FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON D FROM 1PM MON TO 1PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 222053 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 A 1500Z TRMM COMPOSITE PASS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16.3N 67.9W WITH A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BANDING FEATURE. THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES WERE 2.0/2.0...AND MOREOVER THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVED SINCE THAT TIME. AT 18Z...A SHIP REPORT FROM C6FN4 HAD A 22 KNOT SOUTHWEST WIND ABOUT 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A 1007 MB PRESSURE. BASED UPON THE ABOVE INFORMATION THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ALPHA. ALPHA IS THE TWENTY-SECOND NAMED STORM THIS SEASON AND OVERALL MAKES THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON THE MOST ACTIVE ON RECORD. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/13. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE STORM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYER RIDGE. ALPHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN RECURVE TO THE NORTHE AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WILMA AND THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS ALPHA BEING ABSORBED BY THE TROUGH IN 96 HOURS IF NOT SOONER. ALPHA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. AFTER WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOME BRIEF RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING OVER HISPANIOLA. FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 17.0N 68.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 18.3N 70.2W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 23/1800Z 20.8N 71.8W 30 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 24/0600Z 23.6N 71.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 28.5N 70.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 38.0N 61.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 222054 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...WILMA ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF YUCATAN... ...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY NORTHWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER... AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST... ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM NORTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 405 MILES... 650 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY THREE STATUS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...21.4 N... 87.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 222057 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005 2100Z SAT OCT 22 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IF EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AT 5 PM EDT...THE BAHAMAS GOVERNMENT HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. A TROPICAL STROM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF HAITI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 68.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 68.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 68.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.3N 70.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.8N 71.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.6N 71.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 68.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 222058 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ALPHA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.8N 71.8W 57 X X X 57 MYMM 224N 730W 21 20 X X 41 23.6N 71.9W 5 33 4 X 42 MYSM 241N 745W X 19 5 X 24 28.5N 70.5W X X 27 3 30 MYEG 235N 758W X 5 1 X 6 MDSD 185N 697W 86 X X X 86 BERMUDA X X X 20 20 MDCB 176N 714W 43 X X X 43 NANTUCKET MA X X X 3 3 MTPP 186N 724W 36 1 X X 37 HYANNIS MA X X X 2 2 MTCA 183N 738W 3 1 X X 4 YARMOUTH NS X X X 2 2 MUGM 200N 751W 1 2 X X 3 HALIFAX NS X X X 2 2 MDPP 198N 707W 69 X X X 69 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 2 2 MBJT 215N 712W 44 3 X X 47 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 222102 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...ALPHA BECOMES THE TWENTY-SECOND NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON AND BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR THE MOST ACTIVE SEASON ON RECORD... AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IF EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A TROPICAL STROM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF HAITI. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 335 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ALPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ALPHA TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 68.9 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 222109 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 THE CENTER OF WILMA IS JUST ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ERRATIC NORTHWARD DRIFT SEEMS TO HAVE EVOLVED INTO A PERSISENT...ALBEIT SLOW...NORTHWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 2 KT. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILMA TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS....WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME BEING SOMETIME DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE AGREEMENT ON WHAT PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WILMA WILL CROSS IS A LITTLE LESS THAN IT WAS ON PREVIOUS CYCLES... AND SOME DISPARITY REMAINS ON HOW FAST WILMA WILL ACCELERATE. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS NEARLY CERTAIN IT WILL SPEED UP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA SOON...SINCE A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN... WITH A TROUGH PUSHING WESTERLIES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DESPITE THE MODEL SPREAD... THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS... SO THE PACE OF THE NEW FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED. ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN APPLIED SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS SHIFTED A TAD IN THAT DIRECTION. AFTER PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA...THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED FARTHER TO THE NORTH TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 957 MB... NOT TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER TODAY. THE SFMR MEASURED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 77 KT... AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED 85 KT SURFACE WINDS... WITH THE LATTER BEING THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR WILMA TO RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... DUE TO WARM WATERS BUT MODERATE SHEAR... AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL. THEREAFTER... WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND AS WILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA... AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A CATEGORY TWO OR THREE AT LANDFALL. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA. BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...NEW WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 21.4N 87.1W 85 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 21.9N 86.8W 95 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 23.1N 85.7W 100 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 24.9N 83.5W 95 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 27.8N 79.6W 80 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 38.0N 69.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/1800Z 45.0N 58.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 44.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT84 KNHC 222109 *** TCVAT4 WILMA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 .HURRICANE WILMA FLC009-011-015-021-027-061-071-085-086-087-099-111-115-AMZ550- 555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ031-033-656-657-676-853-856- 873-876-230300- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1024.051022T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ FLC017-029-053-057-075-081-101-103-GMZ755-775-830-850-870-230300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1024.051022T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-127-AMZ452-454-472-474-230300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1024.051022T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ AMZ610-230300- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1024.051022T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-230300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...EYW...TBW...TAE...MLB...MFL... ** WTNT64 KNHC 222111 *** TCUAT4 HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 515 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN ADDITION TO THE WATCHES ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT64 KNHC 222111 *** TCUAT4 HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 515 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN ADDITION TO THE WATCHES ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 222125 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-230030- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST...ABOUT 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 405 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA WAS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 957 MB...OR 28.26 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS BEGAN TODAY AT 12 PM ACROSS THE LOWER AND AT 3 PM ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS. IT WILL BEGIN AT 600 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS FROM LONG KEY TO OCEAN REEF. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN...JUST FOLLOW THE SIGNS. THERE WILL BE NO SHELTERS OPEN IN THE KEYS. THE AUTHORITIES RECOMMEND THAT YOU SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST AIRPORT HAS CLOSED. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE LAST BUS WILL LEAVE TOMORROW MORNING AT 845 AM. MUNICIPAL BUS SERVICE IS AVAILABLE TO RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT HAVE TRANSPORTATION. FOR DETAILS...YOU MAY CALL THE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE 1-800-955-5504...OR IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY HOTLINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY MORNING. DRIVERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CARE IN DRIVING OVER BRIDGES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE KEYS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. VESSELS SHOULD BE TIED OFF WITH THIS IN MIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OUR GUIDANCE PREDICTS A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...AND 208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS...EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FUTTERMAN ** WTCA45 TJSJ 222130 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SABADO 22 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...ALPHA SE TORNA EN LA TORMENTA VEINTIDOS DE LA TEMPORADA Y ESTABLECE UNA MARCA DE TODOS LOS TIEMPOS PARA LA TEMPORADA MAS ACTIVA EN RECORD... A LAS 5 PM EDT...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA PROMOVIDO LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...Y PARA TURKS Y CAICOS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODA LA LINEA COSTERA DE HAITI. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ALPHA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.9 OESTE O COMO A 210 MILLAS...335 KM...OESTE-SUROESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO Y COMO A 125 MILLAS...200 KM...SUR-SURESE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ALPHA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y DEBERA LLEVAR AL CENTRO DE ALPHA A LA COSTA DE LA ESPANOLA TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE QUE SE FORTALEZCA UN POCO ANTES DE QUE EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL LLEGUE A LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA. LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO QUE AMENACEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...17.0 NORTE...68.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT. $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 222131 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-230300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 530 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...HURRICANE WILMA SLOWLY DEPARTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS... HILLSBOROUGH...POLK... PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR NEAR THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA AND 490 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. WILMA WAS DRIFTING NORTH AT 2 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST. ...WIND IMPACTS... NO WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTLINE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO A GUSTY NORTHERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ...SURGE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING POINTS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY THIS AFTERNOON. TIDE LEVELS WILL FURTHER INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN THESE AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. LEE AND PERHAPS CHARLOTTE COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE OVERWASH AND SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA APPROACHES. NORTH OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE AN OUTGOING TIDE WHICH MAY EXPOSE SANDBARS AND OTHER FEATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLETS...BAYS...AND HARBORS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... ON SUNDAY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM FEEDER BANDS WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MORE EXTENSIVE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY...RAINFALL MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD MAY PRODUCE A BIT MORE MINOR FLOODING. EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES..MAINLY SOUTH OF A TAMPA BAY TO POLK COUNTY LINE. RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF WILMA ACROSS THE REGION. ...MARINE IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF WILMA LINKING UP WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENSURE AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...35 TO 60 KNOTS... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE THREAT FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...64 KNOTS...IS GREATEST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO BE NIL FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD...AND LOW SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTH WINDS USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ENSURE STABLE CONDITIONS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM WHERE TROPICAL AIR IS MOST ABUNDANT. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 11 PM TONIGHT. $$ CP ** WTCA44 TJSJ 222138 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 30 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SABADO 22 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA A PUNTO DE SALIR DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE YUCATAN... ...SE EMITEN NUEVAS VIGILANCIAS PARA LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...SE HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY HACIA EL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE TITUSVILLE HACIA EL SUR. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS Y FLORIDA BAY. A LAS 5 PM EDT...SE HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL RIO STEINHATCHEE...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE TUTUSVILLE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. A LAS 5 PM EDT...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PROVINCIA DE MATANZAS. UN AVISO DE HIRACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS PRONTO. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.1 OESTE... COMO A 25 MILLAS...40 KILOMETROS AL NOROESTE DE CANCUN MEXICO...O COMO A 405 MILLAS... 650 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH... 4 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORESTE SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y WILMA PODRIA VOLVER A OBTENER INTENSIDAD DE CATEGORIA TRES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL MAS RECIENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE NOAA FUE DE 957 MILIBARAS...28.26 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CONTINUARAN CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL OJO A LO LARGO DEL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON TOTALES MAXIMOS AISLADAS POSIBLES ACERCANDOSE A LAS 50 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS SE ESPERA QUE SEA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS... CON TOTALES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE ALREDEDOR DE 12 PULGADAS POSIBLES. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA SE HAN PROPAGADO BIEN HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS POSIBLEMENTE AFECTARAN A PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO ESTA NOCHE Y EL DOMINGO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL PROXIMO PAR DE DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...21.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 957 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTUS82 KMLB 222153 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 230400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 550 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD AND FOR ALL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FROM TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA AND ORANGE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE...SEMINOLE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN BREVARD...VOLUSIA...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN...INDIAN RIVER... OKEECHOBEE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WILMA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA VERY EARLY ON MONDAY AND THEN ACCELERATE VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY BE COMPLETED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WEATHER WILL BE DETERIORATING RAPIDLY LATE ON SUNDAY. CHECK WITH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THE LOCATIONS OF SHELTERS ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITH SPECIAL NEEDS AND PEOPLE LIVING IN MANUFACTURED OR MOBILE HOMES. BREVARD COUNTY HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE AND MANUFACTURED HOMES AND WILL BE OPENING SHELTERS AT 10 AM SUNDAY. DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS THE AREA OF GREATEST IMPACT WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM PLANS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE GREATEST OVERALL THREAT FROM WILMA ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS LIKELY TO BE FROM DESTRUCTIVE WIND. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELD IS VERY LARGE WITH WILMA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS BREVARD...ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES AROUND 8 AM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES BY MID MORNING AND SPREAD INTO INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING. BECAUSE THE OF THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE RIGHT. IT IS LIKELY A BAND OF VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 100 MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. THE LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST WIND IMPACT WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL MONDAY MORNING AND BY THAT TIME WILMA WILL BE MOVING VERY FAST. DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER TRACK. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... LATE SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES APPROACHING FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A GREATER RISK OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND FAST FORWARD SPEED AS IS ANTICIPATED WITH WILMA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH OUTER RAINBANDS SUNDAY AND THEN TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE THE HIGHEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CENTRAL RAINBANDS OF WILMA EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THE ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WARNINGS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND TAKE THEM SERIOUSLY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF WILMA WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES MAY OCCUR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF WILMA. IN ADDITION... THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BOUNDARIES SETTING UP IN OUTER RAINBANDS THAT MAY LEAD TO TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WHILE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR ...IT APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO TRAINING OF SHOWERS RESULTING IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA OR IN AN AREA THAT ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING DRAINAGE ISSUES TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA AND THE MOVEMENT OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OF GREAT IMPACT. A STORM TIDE OF PERHAPS 3 OR 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AROUND MID DAY MONDAY NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES OFFSHORE. EXTREMELY ROUGH SURF... BEACH EROSION AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES AS WILMA MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM FOR MARINERS DUE TO ITS RAPID ACCELERATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING SEAS AND THEN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ON MONDAY AS WILMA MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS PERHAPS MOVING AS FAST AS 30 KNOTS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...NEXT UPDATE... REGULAR ISSUANCE OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED UNTIL AFTER WILMA PASSES. ALL HAZARDOUS WEATHER INFORMATION FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE CONTAINED IN HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY NWS MELBOURNE BY MIDNIGHT OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBPAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON WILMA LOCAL INFO. $$ HAGEMEYER ** WTUS82 KEYW 222157 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-230030- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST...ABOUT 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 405 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA WAS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 957 MB...OR 28.26 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS BEGAN TODAY AT 12 PM ACROSS THE LOWER AND AT 3 PM ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS. IT WILL BEGIN AT 600 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS FROM LONG KEY TO OCEAN REEF. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN...JUST FOLLOW THE SIGNS. THERE WILL BE NO SHELTERS OPEN IN THE KEYS. THE AUTHORITIES RECOMMEND THAT YOU SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS CLOSED. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE LAST BUS WILL LEAVE TOMORROW MORNING AT 845 AM. MUNICIPAL BUS SERVICE IS AVAILABLE TO RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT HAVE TRANSPORTATION. FOR DETAILS...YOU MAY CALL THE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE 1-800-955-5504...OR IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY HOTLINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY MORNING. DRIVERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CARE IN DRIVING OVER BRIDGES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE KEYS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. VESSELS SHOULD BE TIED OFF WITH THIS IN MIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OUR GUIDANCE PREDICTS A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...AND 208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS...EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FUTTERMAN ** WTUS82 KTAE 222157 *** HLSTAE FLZ034-230100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 557 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...PARTICULARLY DIXIE COUNTY. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE BEACHES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED AT 21.4 NORTH AND 87.1 WEST. THIS WAS 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO OR 400 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AT 2 MPH. WILMA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AND TURN TO THE NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWENTY FOUR HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE AT 100 MPH. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF WILMA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY STILL BE FELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. SECURED LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE...AND OTHER LOOSE OR LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT COULD BE LOFTED INTO THE AIR IF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AFFECT YOUR AREA. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE WILMA. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND STATEMENTS ISSUED FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS TIME...HIGH STORM SURGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND COASTLINE. MINOR RISES ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL OF ONE TO TWO FEET CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW ARE SELECTED HIGH AND LOW TIDES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...HIGH TIDE 811 PM SUNDAY EVENING...LOW TIDE 1202 AM MONDAY MORNING...HIGH TIDE 538 MONDAY MORNING...LOW TIDE 238 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON. STEINHATCHEE RIVER ENTRANCE...HIGH TIDE 755 PM SUNDAY EVENING...LOW TIDE 1235 AM MONDAY MORNING...HIGH TIDE 610 AM MONDAY MORNING...LOW TIDE 218 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON. CEDAR KEY...HIGH TIDE 738 PM SUNDAY EVENING...LOW TIDE 1206 AM MONDAY MORNING...HIGH TIDE 553 AM MONDAY MORNING...LOW TIDE 149 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE LATEST FORECAST TAKES THE CENTER OF WILMA ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS WELL AWAY FROM DIXIE COUNTY. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 250 MILES FROM WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THIS MEANS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BE FELT ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY...BEGINNING EARLY MORNING MONDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... THE RAPID MOTION OF HURRICANE WILMA SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FAIRLY LIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. ...TORNADO THREAT... DUE TO THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...RIP CURRENTS... ALONG WITH THE HIGH SURF THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVERYONE...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS...SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SURF. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 900 PM EDT (800 PM CDT). $$ GODSEY/TURNAGE ** WTUS82 KMFL 222201 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-230500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 601 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...HEADLINE... ...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS: COLLIER...GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WATCHES AND SHELTER UPDATE FOR BROWARD COUNTY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD AT 2 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY. IN HENDRY COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS RECOMMENDED. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM SUNDAY. IN GLADES COUNTY...SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING SUNDAY EVENING. A DECISION ON THE EXTENT OF THE EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN AT NOON SUNDAY. SIX SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A PET-FRIENDLY SHELTER. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN SUBSTANDARD HOUSING... LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL COMMENCE AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY. SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 10 AM EDT SUNDAY. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY. IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS ON EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO PLACE IF THE WATCHES ARE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ON SUNDAY. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK...SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 12 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY COASTS. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF TAMIAMI TRAIL. OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM SURGE OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE. ON THE EAST COAST...STORM SURGES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES AS FORECAST. ...WIND IMPACTS... IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE WIND IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY START AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A 65 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS FROM 35 TO 50 PERCENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE MARINE IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK...SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 16 FEET...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE FORCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ON SUNDAY...BECOMING VERY ROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE FLOOD IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE PROVIDED IN FURTHER UPDATES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AND COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE STATE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ MOLLEDA ** WTUS82 KJAX 222213 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-230330- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 612 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL... ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. WILMA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WILMA IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. DUE TO WILMA HAVING A LARGE WIND FIELD...TROPICAL STORM WINDS MAY IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL AREAS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH ON MONDAY. INTERESTS ALONG THE BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. IF CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING INCREASE...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS AND INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR IN THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS EVENT AS IT UNFOLDS AS INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR BEACH EROSION SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO STAY IN PORT BY SUNDAY UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AND SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH. BUILDING SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. LOCAL INLETS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE APPROACH OF WILMA TO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL INCREASE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBILITIES. AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDY CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN OVER A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW STRONG WINDS WOULD BE ON MONDAY. RESIDENTS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS NEXT STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM TONIGHT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE. $$ ARS ** WTNT34 KNHC 222340 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...CENTER OF WILMA MOVING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY NORTHWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER... AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST... ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 390 MILES... 630 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 5 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY THREE STATUS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FLOODING SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES AWAY FROM YUCATAN. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...21.6 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 222347 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALPHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...ALPHA APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ALPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ALPHA TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 69.5 W. MOVEMENT ...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$