** WTNT34 KNHC 221200 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...RELENTLESS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN... ...EYE LOCATED JUST INLAND BETWEEN CANCUN AND COZUMEL... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST ABOUT 10 MILES... 15 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CANCUN AND ABOUT 415 MILES... 665 KM... SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD... AND A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO SEVERELY POUND PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALL DAY TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 120 MPH... 195 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND 10 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...21.0 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT ...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 220600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KEYW 221245 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-221530- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 845 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ANNOUNCES PLANS FOR MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOT YET IN EFFECT. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST...ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD...WHICH MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...AND SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 943 MB...OR 27.85 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS BEGINS AT NOON TODAY STARTING WITH THE LOWER KEYS. AT 300 PM THE MIDDLE KEYS WILL GO...AND FINALLY AT 600 PM THE UPPER KEYS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN. THERE WILL BE NO SHELTERS OPEN IN THE KEYS. THOSE EVACUATING ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL OPEN FOR VESSELS EVERY HALF HOUR...BUT THESE BRIDGES WILL BE LOCKED DOWN AT NOON TODAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST AIRPORT AND GREYHOUND BUSES REMAIN OPERATIONAL AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A BUS SERVICE TO TAKE EVACUEES WITHOUT TRANSPORTATION TO THE FIU SHELTER. FOR INFORMATION ON THIS BUS SERVICE CALL THE MONROE COUNTY HOTLINE AT 1-800-955-5504...OR IF IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY INFORMATION LINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL REQUIRE EXTRA CARE IN DRIVING OVER BRIDGES. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD USE CAUTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED BY LATE TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ CB/DFM ** WTCA44 TJSJ 221404 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 28A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT SABADO 22 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...FUERTES VIENTOS HURACANADOS Y LLUVIAS FUERTES CONTINUAN AZOTANTO SIN PARAR A LA PARTE NORESTE DE YUCATAN... ...EL OJO ESTA LOCALIZADO SOBRE TIERRA ENTRE CANCUN Y COZUMEL... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. PODRIA REQUERIRSE UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DEL CENTRO Y SUR DE FLORIDA Y PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y EN LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 7 AM CDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.0 OESTE COMO A 10 MILLAS...15 KM OESTE-SUROESTE DE CANCUN Y COMO A 415 MILLAS 665 KM... AL SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL NORTE...Y CONTINUARA UN TRAYECTORIA LENTA HACIA EL NORTE HOY. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE WILMA CONTINUARA CASTIGANDO SEVERAMENTE A PORCIONES DEL EXTREMO NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN TODO EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 120 MPH... 195 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 943 MILIBARAS...27.85 PULGADAS. HABRA MAREJADA CICLONICA EN LA COSTA DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CONTINUARAN CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL OJO A LO LARGO DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS POSIBLES DE HASTA CERCA DE 40 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA SE ESPERA QUE SEA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON TOTALES AISLADOS ALREDEDOR DE 10 PULGADAS HASTA EL MARTES. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA SE HAN PROPAGADO BIEN HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS POSIBLEMENTE AFECTARAN PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 AM CDT...21.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 120 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 943 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTCA44 TJSJ 221405 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 28A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT SABADO 22 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...FUERTES VIENTOS HURACANADOS Y LLUVIAS FUERTES CONTINUAN AZOTANDO SIN PARAR A LA PARTE NORESTE DE YUCATAN... ...EL OJO ESTA LOCALIZADO SOBRE TIERRA ENTRE CANCUN Y COZUMEL... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. PODRIA REQUERIRSE UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DEL CENTRO Y SUR DE FLORIDA Y PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y EN LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 7 AM CDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.0 OESTE COMO A 10 MILLAS...15 KM OESTE-SUROESTE DE CANCUN Y COMO A 415 MILLAS 665 KM... AL SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL NORTE...Y CONTINUARA UN TRAYECTORIA LENTA HACIA EL NORTE HOY. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE WILMA CONTINUARA CASTIGANDO SEVERAMENTE A PORCIONES DEL EXTREMO NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN TODO EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 120 MPH... 195 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 943 MILIBARAS...27.85 PULGADAS. HABRA MAREJADA CICLONICA EN LA COSTA DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CONTINUARAN CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL OJO A LO LARGO DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS POSIBLES DE HASTA CERCA DE 40 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA SE ESPERA QUE SEA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON TOTALES AISLADOS ALREDEDOR DE 10 PULGADAS HASTA EL MARTES. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA SE HAN PROPAGADO BIEN HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS POSIBLEMENTE AFECTARAN PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 AM CDT...21.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 120 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 943 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTNT25 KNHC 221441 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005 1500Z SAT OCT 22 2005 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF HISPANIOLA BY THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 68.0W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 68.0W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 67.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.9N 69.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.2N 71.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.6N 72.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.9N 72.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.3N 62.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 68.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 221443 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 1500Z SAT OCT 22 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 87.0W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 325SE 150SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 87.0W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 87.0W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.7N 87.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.8N 84.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.6N 82.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.5N 72.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 42.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 47.5N 47.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 87.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 221444 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.5N 86.5W 40 X X X 40 SAVANNAH GA X X 1 13 14 23.8N 84.8W 9 20 1 X 30 CHARLESTON SC X X X 13 13 25.6N 82.2W X 4 18 3 25 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 12 12 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC X X X 12 12 MUCF 221N 805W X X 6 4 10 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 11 11 MUSN 216N 826W X 6 8 1 15 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 10 10 MUHA 230N 824W X 8 11 1 20 NORFOLK VA X X X 6 6 MUAN 219N 850W 23 4 1 X 28 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 4 4 MMCZ 205N 869W 99 X X X 99 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 4 4 KEY WEST FL X 4 16 3 23 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 4 4 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 18 5 24 MYAK 241N 776W X X 1 8 9 FT MYERS FL X 1 18 5 24 MYNN 251N 775W X X 1 11 12 VENICE FL X 2 17 5 24 MYGF 266N 787W X X 3 16 19 TAMPA FL X 1 14 7 22 MMMD 210N 897W 10 X 1 X 11 CEDAR KEY FL X X 10 9 19 MARATHON FL X 1 15 5 21 ST MARKS FL X X 4 9 13 MIAMI FL X X 12 9 21 APALACHICOLA FL X X 5 7 12 W PALM BEACH FL X X 9 13 22 PANAMA CITY FL X X 3 5 8 FT PIERCE FL X X 9 13 22 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 1 2 COCOA BEACH FL X X 8 14 22 GULF 29N 85W X X 9 5 14 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 6 15 21 GULF 29N 87W X X 3 3 6 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 3 14 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM SUN TO 7PM SUN C FROM 7PM SUN TO 7AM MON D FROM 7AM MON TO 7AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT84 KNHC 221444 *** TCVAT4 WILMA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 .HURRICANE WILMA GMZ031-222100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1024.051022T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 FLORIDA-BAY-FL 24.95N 80.90W $$ FLC087-GMZ032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-222100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1024.051022T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...EYW... ** WTNT35 KNHC 221449 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...25TH DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF HISPANIOLA BY THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES... 335 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.1 N... 68.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 221453 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...CENTER WILMA STILL INLAND OVER YUCATAN AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST... JUST SOUTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 400 MILES... 645 KM... SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD... AND A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO SEVERELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALL DAY TODAY... AND THEN EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH... 185 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 50 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.3 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT... DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 221500 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SABADO 22 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION NUMERO 25 SE FORMA AL SURESTE DE LA ESPANOLA... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE HA EMITIDO PARA TODA LA ESPANOLA POR LOS GOBIERNOS DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. A LAS 11 AM AST...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA LAS BAHAMAS EN EL SURESTE. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICINCO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.0 OESTE O COMO A 200 MILLAS... 325 KM... AL SUROESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO Y COMO A 210 MILLAS... 335 KM...AL SURESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...16.1 NORTE...68.O OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS 35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT. $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 221504 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 THE CENTER OF WILMA REMAINS JUST INLAND NEAR CANCUN MEXICO. WHILE IT IS NOT MOVING MUCH... THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A NORTHWARD DRIFT ON CANCUN RADAR. AFTER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ACTUAL INITIAL POSITION... ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILMA TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. AS BEFORE... DESPITE THE AGREEMENT ON WHERE WILMA WILL GO... THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON HOW FAST WILMA WILL ACCELERATE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE LARGE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST... SO THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST IN TERMS OF EITHER THE PATH OR THE TIMING. WILMA WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOME MORE WHILE IT REMAINS JUST INLAND OVER YUCATAN TODAY. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR IT TO RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH INCREASES AND INDUCES A WEAKENING TREND AS WILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA. THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A CATEGORY ONE OR TWO AT LANDFALL. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA. BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.3N 87.0W 100 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.7N 87.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 86.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 23.8N 84.8W 100 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 25.6N 82.2W 90 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 72.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/1200Z 42.0N 60.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/1200Z 47.5N 47.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 221512 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 29 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SABADO 22 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...EL CENTRO DE WILMA AUN SOBRE TIERRA EN YUCATAN Y MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE... ...SE EMITE UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...SE HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS Y FLORIDA BAY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. ] PROBABLEMENTE SE REQUIERA UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA ESTA TARDE. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA DEBERAN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DEL HURACAN WILMA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.0 OESTE JUSTO AL SUROESTE DE CANCUN MEXICO...O COMO A 400 MILLAS... 645 KM...AL SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL NORTE...Y SE ESPERA UNA TRAYECTORIA LENTA HACIA EL NORTE HOY. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE WILMA CONTINUARA CASTIGANDO SEVERAMENTE A PORCIONES DEL EXTREMO NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN TODO EL DIA DE HOY...Y LUEGO SALDRA POR EL NORTE DE LA PENINSULA HACIA EL GOLFO DE MEXICO ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO Y ESTAN AHORA EN CERCA DE 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 946 MILIBARAS...27.94 PULGADAS. HABRA MAREJADA CICLONICA EN LA COSTA DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CONTINUANDO CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL OJO A LO LARGO DE LA PARTE NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS POSIBLES DE HASTA CERCA DE 50 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA SE ESPERA QUE SEA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON TOTALES AISLADOS ALREDEDOR DE 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA SE HAN PROPAGADO BIEN HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS POSIBLEMENTE AFECTARAN PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...21.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 946 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTNT45 KNHC 221512 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH -80C COLD TOPS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A CENTRAL AREA OF CONVECTION. NWS/SAN JUAN RADAR ALSO REVEALS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED ROTATION. ON THIS BASIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE SEASON'S 25TH TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD INCREASED ORGANIZATION... MORE THAN LIKELY THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO 45 OR 50 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS... BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR SPREADS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AFTERWARD...THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WHICH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH WILMA. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT ABSORPTION INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY DAY 4. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/11. A LOW- TO MID- LAYER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS... AHEAD AND EAST OF THE APPROACHING HURRICANE WILMA AND A MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WILMA AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE MID- LAYER MEAN GFS BAM. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING OVER HISPANIOLA. WITH THE REGULAR LIST OF NAMES EXHAUSTED... WE WOULD UTILIZE THE GREEK ALPHABET SHOULD THE DEPRESSION REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE FIRST NAME ON THIS LIST IS ALPHA. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 16.1N 68.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 16.9N 69.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 18.2N 71.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 20.6N 72.8W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 24/1200Z 24.9N 72.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 36.3N 62.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 221513 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.2N 71.4W 50 X X X 50 MBJT 215N 712W 2 24 7 X 33 20.6N 72.8W 4 36 2 X 42 MYMM 224N 730W X 25 15 X 40 24.9N 72.3W X 1 32 3 36 MYSM 241N 745W X 3 29 X 32 MDSD 185N 697W 48 X X X 48 MYEG 235N 758W X 2 18 1 21 MDCB 176N 714W 49 X X X 49 MYAK 241N 776W X X 3 X 3 MTPP 186N 724W 37 6 X X 43 MYNN 251N 775W X X 3 1 4 MTCA 183N 738W 10 17 X X 27 BERMUDA X X X 21 21 MUGM 200N 751W X 19 4 X 23 NANTUCKET MA X X X 2 2 MDPP 198N 707W 29 7 X X 36 HYANNIS MA X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 221533 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-222200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1110 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...HEADLINE... ...HURRICANE WILMA STILL OVER THE YUCATAN BUT DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS: COLLIER...GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... PRELIMINARY INFORMATION ON EVACUATIONS AND SHELTER OPENINGS ARE INCLUDED FOR HENDRY...PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS YET IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ALL OF FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. IN HENDRY COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS RECOMMENDED. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM SUNDAY. IN GLADES COUNTY...SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING SUNDAY EVENING. A DECISION ON THE EXTENT OF THE EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN AT NOON SUNDAY. A MINIMUM OF THREE SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A PET-FRIENDLY SHELTER. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 2 PM EDT SUNDAY. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 6 PM EDT SUNDAY. A DECISION ON THE EXTENT OF THE EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE AROUND NOON SUNDAY. IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS ON EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THIS STAGE...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE A WEATHER WATCH AND STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND RESTOCK PROVISIONS SUCH AS... BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS DRINKING WATER...A GALLON PER PERSON PER DAY CANNED OR DRIED FOOD FIRST AID SUPPLIES PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE CASH...BECAUSE CREDIT CARDS AND ATM'S MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS. WHEN HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED...THAT WILL BE THE TIME TO RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE WIND IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER... WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A 60 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH...IS FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE MARINE IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER... MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE FLOOD IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE PROVIDED IN FURTHER UPDATES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS... PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STORM STRUCTURE AND TRACK AS IT APPROACHES THE PENINSULA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM TODAY. $$ PFOST/MOLLEDA ** WTNT34 KNHC 221541 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 29... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...CORRECTED RAINFALL STATEMENT FOR MEXICO... ...CENTER WILMA STILL INLAND OVER YUCATAN AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST... JUST SOUTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 400 MILES... 645 KM... SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD... AND A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO SEVERELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALL DAY TODAY... AND THEN EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH... 185 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.3 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT... DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 221603 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-221830- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MONROE COUNTY ANNOUNCES MANDATORY EVACUATION... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAS BEEN UPDATED. STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS HAS BEEN UPDATED. TORNADO IMPACTS INCLUDED. STORM SURGE IMPACTS INCLUDED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST...ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD...WHICH MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 946 MB...OR 27.94 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS BEGAN AT NOON TODAY. IT STARTS WITH THE LOWER KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...THEN AT 300 PM THE MIDDLE KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE LONG KEY VIADUCT...AND AT 600 PM THE UPPER KEYS FROM LONG KEY TO OCEAN REEF. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN...JUST FOLLOW THE SIGNS. THERE WILL BE NO SHELTERS OPEN IN THE KEYS. THOSE EVACUATING ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TO FACILITATE VEHICLE TRAFFIC...TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST AIRPORT HAS CLOSED. GREYHOUND WILL CONTINUE SERVICE TODAY. THERE WILL BE MUNICIPAL BUS SERVICE AVAILABLE TO RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT HAVE TRANSPORTATION. RESIDENTS CAN CALL THE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE FOR BUS INFORMATION AT THE MONROE COUNTY HOTLINE 1-800-955-5504...OR IF IN KEY WEST CALL THE CITY INFORMATION LINE AT 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL REQUIRE EXTRA CARE IN DRIVING OVER BRIDGES. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS WINDS GO INTO THE WEST. VESSELS SHOULD BE TIED OFF WITH THIS IN MIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT KEY WEST ON MONDAY MORNING WILL OCCUR AT 230 AM...123 AM AT VACA CUT...AND 208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS...EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM/AD ** WTNT80 EGRR 221743 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.7N 122.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.10.2005 12.7N 122.3W WEAK 00UTC 23.10.2005 12.2N 122.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2005 12.0N 122.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2005 11.2N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2005 10.6N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2005 10.4N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2005 10.3N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2005 10.7N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2005 11.3N 132.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2005 11.4N 135.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2005 12.1N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2005 12.8N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 87.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.10.2005 21.2N 87.0W STRONG 00UTC 23.10.2005 21.5N 86.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2005 22.2N 85.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2005 24.4N 83.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2005 26.4N 80.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2005 29.9N 74.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2005 37.7N 67.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.10.2005 43.1N 61.5W EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25 ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 68.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.10.2005 16.2N 68.8W 00UTC 23.10.2005 17.5N 74.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2005 16.2N 74.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2005 16.9N 75.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2005 16.5N 73.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2005 16.7N 71.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2005 17.4N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2005 13.9N 77.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2005 12.2N 78.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.10.2005 12.6N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.10.2005 12.3N 78.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.10.2005 13.3N 78.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.10.2005 13.8N 78.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 221743 ** WTNT34 KNHC 221755 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...WILMA STILL INLAND AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER YUCATAN... ...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER YUCATAN FOR 24 HOURS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST... JUST WEST OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 400 MILES... 645 KM... SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS ERRATICALLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD... AND A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO SEVERELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND THEN EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 110 MPH... 175 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND... BUT SOME RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY ONCE WILMA EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF WILMA... RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH... 76 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...21.2 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT... DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 953 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$