** WTUS82 KEYW 220622 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-220930- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 220 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOT YET IN EFFECT. WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO...OR ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES OVER LAND. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 935 MB...OR 27.61 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ENCOURAGES VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY REMAINS OPEN TO ACCEPT RESIDENT EVACUEES. EVACUATING RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS CLIENTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION REGARDING MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL OPEN FOR VESSELS EVERY HALF HOUR...BUT THESE BRIDGES WILL BE LOCKED DOWN AT NOON TODAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. WEIGHT SCALES WILL REMAIN OPEN UNTIL NOON TODAY. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND GREYHOUND BUSES REMAIN OPERATIONAL AT THIS TIME. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS OVER 35 MPH SUNDAY WHICH WILL REQUIRE EXTRA CARE DRIVING OVER BRIDGES. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD USE CAUTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF WILMA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ CB/JR ** WTIN20 DEMS 220705 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 22-10-2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER OF NORTHWEST,SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AAA RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 18.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION AAA ====== OVER ** WTNT34 KNHC 220842 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...CALM OF THE EYE STILL FELT IN PLAYA DEL CARMEN...WILMA REALLY CLOBBERING NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST ABOUT 25 MILES...45 KM SOUTHWEST OF CANCUN AND ABOUT 430 MILES...690 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS STATIONARY BUT A GRADUAL NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO SEVERELY POUNDING PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALL DAY TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE KEYS... PRODUCING 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...20.9 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 220843 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0900Z SAT OCT 22 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 87.2W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 325SE 175SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 87.2W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 87.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 87.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.0N 87.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.0N 74.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 41.0N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 46.0N 54.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 87.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 220843 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.0N 87.0W 99 X X X 99 SAVANNAH GA X X X 13 13 23.0N 86.0W 20 8 1 X 29 CHARLESTON SC X X X 12 12 24.5N 83.5W X 9 14 2 25 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 11 11 MWCG 193N 814W X X 1 1 2 WILMINGTON NC X X X 9 9 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 8 8 MUCF 221N 805W X X 4 7 11 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 7 7 MUSN 216N 826W X 4 9 2 15 NORFOLK VA X X X 4 4 MUHA 230N 824W X 4 13 3 20 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2 MUAN 219N 850W 16 6 2 X 24 KEY WEST FL X 1 15 6 22 MMCZ 205N 869W 99 X X X 99 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 14 9 23 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 3 3 FT MYERS FL X X 13 10 23 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 4 4 VENICE FL X X 13 10 23 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 10 10 TAMPA FL X X 9 12 21 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 12 12 CEDAR KEY FL X X 5 13 18 MYGF 266N 787W X X 1 17 18 ST MARKS FL X X 2 11 13 MMMD 210N 897W 10 2 X X 12 APALACHICOLA FL X X 3 10 13 MARATHON FL X X 12 8 20 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 8 10 MIAMI FL X X 7 13 20 PENSACOLA FL X X X 4 4 W PALM BEACH FL X X 5 16 21 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 FT PIERCE FL X X 4 17 21 GULF 29N 85W X X 5 10 15 COCOA BEACH FL X X 3 18 21 GULF 29N 87W X X 3 5 8 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 2 17 19 GULF 28N 89W X X 2 1 3 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 15 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM SUN TO 1PM SUN C FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON D FROM 1AM MON TO 1AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 220843 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 THE EYE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN AND IS BECOMING LESS DISCERNIBLE ON IR IMAGES....BUT IT REMAINS CLEARLY DEFINED ON CANCUN RADAR. VERY USEFUL DATA HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM SEVERAL MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC COASTAL STATIONS AROUND YUCATAN. THE STATION LOCATED IN ISLA MUJERES LOCATED OFFSHORE NEAR THE NORTHEATERN TIP OF YUCATAN HAS BEEN MEASURING MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 90 KNOTS FOR MORE THAN 9 HOURS. LATEST MAXIMUM WIND AT 06Z WAS 88 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE EYE IS INLAND THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KNOTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE EYE IS MOVING OVER YUCATAN. A MODEST STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR ONCE THE HURRICANE MOVES BACK OVER WATER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BEYOND 48 HOURS SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA. THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH KEEP AN INTENSE HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 115 KNOTS AND THE SHIPS MODEL THAT RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE. WILMA HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A GRADUAL NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND FORCE WILMA TO MOVE ON A NORTHEAST TRACK WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN A BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT MAKING THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MORE CERTAIN. IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE DEFINITE THAT HURRICANE WILMA WILL CROSS FLORIDA IN A HURRY ON MONDAY. THE LONGER THAT WILMA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CHANCES BECOME GREATER FOR A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS INDICATED BY SOME GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE A CATEGORY ONE OR TWO AT LANDFALL. WILMA'S WIND FIELD WILL PROBABLY EXPAND AS IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA. BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 20.9N 87.2W 110 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 87.3W 90 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 87.0W 100 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 23/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 24.5N 83.5W 95 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 32.0N 74.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/0600Z 41.0N 64.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/0600Z 46.0N 54.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 220859 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 28 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SABADO 22 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...LA CALMA DEL OJO AUN SE SIENTE SOBRE LA PLAYA DEL CARMEN...WILMA GOLPEANDO EL NORESTE DE YUCATAN... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. PODRIA REQUERIRSE UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DEL CENTRO Y SUR DE FLORIDA Y PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y EN LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.2 OESTE SOBRE LA PLAYA DEL CARMEN EN YUCATAN O COMO A 25 MILLAS...45 KM AL SUROESTE DE CANCUN MEXICO...Y COMO A 430 MILLAS...690 KM...AL SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA ESTA ESTACIONARIA PERO SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL AL NORTE MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE WILMA CONITNUARA AFECTANDO EL EXTREMO NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN TODO EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 125 MPH... 205 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL HOY A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE WILMA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 935 MILIBARAS...27.61 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN LA PARTE NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA CERCA DE 40 PULGADAS. LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE LLUVIAS CONTINUARAN AFECTANDO SECTORES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...ESPECIALMENTE LOS CAYOS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA SE HAN PROPAGADO BIEN HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS POSIBLEMENTE AFECTARAN PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...20.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 125 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 935 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIAINTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTUS82 KEYW 220934 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-221230- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... WATCHES AND WARNINGS INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOT YET IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO...OR ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA HAS BEEN STATIONARY BUT A GRADUAL NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...AND SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 935 MB...OR 27.61 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ENCOURAGES VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY REMAINS OPEN TO ACCEPT RESIDENT EVACUEES. EVACUATING RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS CLIENTS IS IN EFFECT AS OF 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION REGARDING MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS LATER THIS MORNING. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL OPEN FOR VESSELS EVERY HALF HOUR...BUT THESE BRIDGES WILL BE LOCKED DOWN AT NOON TODAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. WEIGHT SCALES WILL REMAIN OPEN UNTIL NOON TODAY. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND GREYHOUND BUSES REMAIN OPERATIONAL AT THIS TIME. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. INCREASING SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL REQUIRE EXTRA CARE IN DRIVING OVER BRIDGES. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD USE CAUTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED BY LATE TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF WILMA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ CB/JR ** WTUS82 KMFL 221105 *** HLSMFL FLZ063-066-069-070-075-GMZ656-657-676-221600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 704 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...HEADLINE... ...COLLIER COUNTY MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER TO BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM SUNDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS: GLADES...HENDRY...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 north AND LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. THE HURRICANE IS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A NORTHWARD DRIFT LATER TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THIS STAGE...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE SIMPLY ADVISED TO REMAIN TUNED TO THE LATEST INFORMATION COMING OUT OF YOUR LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND RESTOCK ON PROVISIONS SUCH AS... BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS DRINKING WATER CANNED OR DRIED FOOD FIRST AID SUPPLIES PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE CASH...BECAUSE CREDIT CARDS AND ATM'S MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS. WHEN HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED...THAT WILL BE THE TIME TO FINISH PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE WIND IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...AND AFTER FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS FROM 28 TO 36 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH...IS FROM 11 TO 16 PERCENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE MARINE IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE FLOOD IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE PROVIDED IN FURTHER UPDATES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE MUCH POTENTIAL TO BE PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A SIMILAR PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STORM STRUCTURE AND TRACK AS IT APPROACHES THE PENINSULA. IF WILMA ENDS UP DIRECTLY IMPACTING SOUTH FLORIDA...MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT WILL BE PROVIDED ONCE RAIN BANDS BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON TODAY. $$