** WTSR20 WSSS 211800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KEYW 220013 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-220330- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 830 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005 ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOT YET IN EFFECT. WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST...NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 140 MPH...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF WILMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND REMAIN INLAND ON SATURDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 930 MB...OR 27.39 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ENCOURAGES RESIDENTS VOLUNTARILY TO EVACUATE. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY REMAINS OPEN TO ACCEPT RESIDENT EVACUEES. EVACUATING RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS CLIENTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM EDT SATURDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION REGARDING MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL OPEN FOR VESSELS EVERY HALF HOUR...BUT THESE BRIDGES WILL BE LOCKED DOWN AT NOON SATURDAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. WEIGHT SCALES WILL REMAIN OPEN UNTIL NOON ON SATURDAY. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND GREYHOUND BUSES REMAIN OPERATIONAL AT THIS TIME. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. ...MARINE IMPACTS... OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD USE CAUTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF WILMA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FUTTERMAN/MR ** WTNT24 KNHC 220221 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0300Z SAT OCT 22 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 86.9W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 325SE 175SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 86.9W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.2N 87.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.7N 87.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.3N 86.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.5N 85.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 35.0N 71.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 45.0N 59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 86.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 220234 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 ...CENTER OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA JUST ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM...SOUTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES... 35 KM...NORTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF WILMA OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER OF WILMA IS OVER LAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE KEYS... PRODUCING 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY. NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...20.8 N... 86.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 932 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 220235 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 21.7N 87.2W 99 X X X 99 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 9 9 22.3N 86.9W 31 1 X 1 33 SAVANNAH GA X X X 6 6 23.5N 85.4W 3 10 8 1 22 CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 MWCG 193N 814W X X 1 4 5 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 4 4 KEY WEST FL X X 4 11 15 MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 8 9 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 2 13 15 MUSN 216N 826W X 2 6 5 13 FT MYERS FL X X 1 14 15 MUHA 230N 824W X 1 7 7 15 VENICE FL X X 2 14 16 MUAN 219N 850W 14 3 3 1 21 TAMPA FL X X 1 13 14 MMCZ 205N 869W 99 X X X 99 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 13 13 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 ST MARKS FL X X X 10 10 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 3 3 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 10 11 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 7 7 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 9 10 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 8 8 PENSACOLA FL X X X 7 7 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 11 11 MOBILE AL X X X 5 5 MMMD 210N 897W 9 3 1 X 13 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4 MARATHON FL X X 2 12 14 BURAS LA X X 1 4 5 MIAMI FL X X X 13 13 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 13 13 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 11 12 FT PIERCE FL X X X 13 13 GULF 29N 87W X X 2 8 10 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 13 13 GULF 28N 89W X X 4 5 9 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 12 12 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 3 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM SAT TO 7AM SUN C FROM 7AM SUN TO 7PM SUN D FROM 7PM SUN TO 7PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 220236 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0300Z SAT OCT 22 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 86.9W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 325SE 175SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 86.9W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.2N 87.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.7N 87.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.3N 86.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.5N 85.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 35.0N 71.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 45.0N 59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 86.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 220259 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005 THE EYE OF WILMA IS SLOWLY MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EVEN BEFORE LANDFALL...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE DECREASING AND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STARTING TO RISE. SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DECREASE IN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMING AND THE EYE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. THERE WAS A SURFACE WIND OF 137 KT FROM AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE EAST OF THE CENTER AROUND 23Z. WHILE THIS SURFACE WIND IS NOT SUPPORTED BY EITHER THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OR THE NORMAL DROPSONDE ANALYSIS PROCEEDURES...IT AND A COUPLE OF 127 KT SURFACE WINDS FROM EARLIER DROPS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THAT WILMA MIGHT HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN 120 KT THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS AND THE DECAY SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 120 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 330/3. WILMA IS CURRENTLY IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TWO SEGMENTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HR INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME...A POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT WILMA WILL CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 60-72 HR...ALTHOUGH THE NOGAPS IS STILL A LITTLE SLOWER. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHICH PART OF FLORIDA THE CENTER WILL CROSS...WITH THE GFDL AND GFS POINTING MORE NORTHWARD TOWARDS CHARLOTTE HARBOR...AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF POINTING MORE TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 96 HR...AND LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS FLORIDA...ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA AND MAKE APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE FIRST QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL WILMA BE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... A QUESTION COMPLICATED BY THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IT IS UNDERGOING AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LESS TIME OVER YUCATAN THAN EARLIER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS WILMA EMERGING OVER THE GULF AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ONCE OVER THE GULF...THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FROM 24-48 HR FOR WILMA TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES OVER THE LOOP CURRENT. AFTER 48 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WILMA...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WILMA TO REACH 95 KT BEFORE THE SHEAR HITS...AND IT WILL PROBABLY REACH FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. WILMA SHOULD WEAKEN DURING AFTER AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 96-120 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 20.8N 86.9W 120 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 21.2N 87.1W 100 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 23/0000Z 21.7N 87.2W 90 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 23/1200Z 22.3N 86.9W 95 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 23.5N 85.4W 95 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 27.0N 80.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 35.0N 71.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/0000Z 45.0N 59.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 220308 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-220630- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1130 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005 ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOT YET IN EFFECT. WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. A SLOW MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 140 MPH...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF WILMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 932 MB...OR 27.52 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ENCOURAGES RESIDENTS VOLUNTARILY TO EVACUATE. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY REMAINS OPEN TO ACCEPT RESIDENT EVACUEES. EVACUATING RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS CLIENTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM EDT SATURDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION REGARDING MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL OPEN FOR VESSELS EVERY HALF HOUR...BUT THESE BRIDGES WILL BE LOCKED DOWN AT NOON SATURDAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. WEIGHT SCALES WILL REMAIN OPEN UNTIL NOON ON SATURDAY. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND GREYHOUND BUSES REMAIN OPERATIONAL AT THIS TIME. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. ...MARINE IMPACTS... OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD USE CAUTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF WILMA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FUTTERMAN/MR ** WTCA44 TJSJ 220411 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT VIERNES 21 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...EL CENTRO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO WILMA A PUNTO DE ENTRAR A TIERRA EN LA COSTA NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y EN LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.9 OESTE O COMO A 15 MILLAS...25 KM AL SUR DE CANCUN MEXICO. ESTO ES TAMBIEN COMO A 20 MILLAS...35 KM...AL NORTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH.... 6 KILOMETROS. SE ESPERA UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE O NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE WILMA ESTARA SOBRE TIERRA EN EL EXTREMO NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN ESTA NOCHE Y PERMANECERA SOBRE TIERRA HASTA EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 140 MPH... 220 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO ESTA NOCHE Y EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL INFORMADA ESTIMADA ES DE 932 MILIBARAS...27.52 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN LA PARTE NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA CERCA DE 40 PULGADAS. LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE LLUVIAS CONTINUARAN AFECTANDO SECTORES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...ESPECIALMENTE LOS CAYOS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO. LA BOYA DE NOAA 42003 EN EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO INDICA QUE GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA SE HAN PROPAGADO BIEN HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS POSIBLEMENTE AFECTARAN PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO ESTA NOCHE Y EL SABADO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...20.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 140 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 930 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTNT80 EGRR 220524 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.9N 121.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2005 12.9N 121.9W WEAK 12UTC 22.10.2005 12.9N 122.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.10.2005 12.8N 122.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2005 12.7N 122.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2005 12.1N 122.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2005 11.3N 124.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2005 10.6N 124.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2005 11.2N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2005 11.3N 128.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2005 12.1N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2005 12.2N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2005 12.9N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2005 13.1N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 86.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2005 20.6N 86.9W INTENSE 12UTC 22.10.2005 21.0N 86.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.10.2005 21.2N 86.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2005 22.0N 85.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2005 23.7N 84.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2005 25.5N 81.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2005 28.1N 77.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.10.2005 EXTRA - -TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 220524 ** WTNT34 KNHC 220539 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 ...LARGE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA OVER PLAYA DEL CARMEN ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...RELENTESSLY POUNDING CANCUN AND COZUMEL... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OVER PLAYA DEL CARMEN YUCATAN OR ABOUT 25 MILES...45 KM...SOUTHWESTOF CANCUN MEXICO. WILMA HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE WILMA WILL BE AFFECTING THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALL DAY SATURDAY. SINCE THE EYE IS ALREADY INLAND...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE PROBABLY DECREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES OVER LAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED IN ISLA MUJERES HAS BEEN REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE DURING THE PAST 10 TO 12 HOURS WITH A MAXIMUM WIND GUST TO 108 MPH...173 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE KEYS... PRODUCING 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY. NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...20.8 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT... MEANDERING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 220553 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 27A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT SABADO 22 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...EL CENTRO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA SOBRE LA PLAYA DEL CARMEN EN EL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...SEVERAMENTE AFECTANDO CANCUN Y COZUMEL... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y EN LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LA 1 AM CDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.2 OESTE SOBRE LA PLAYA DEL CARMEN EN YUCATAN O COMO A 25 MILLAS...45 KM AL SUROESTE DE CANCUN MEXICO. WILMA HA ESTADO SERPENTEANDO DURANTE LAS HORAS PASADAS PERO SE PRONOSTICA QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH.... 6 KILOMETROS HOY. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE WILMA ESTARA SOBRE TIERRA EN EL EXTREMO NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN TODO EL DIA DEL SABADO. COMO EL OJO DEL HURACAN SE ENCUENTRA ACTUALMENTE SOBRE TIERRA...LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS PROBABLEMENTE HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 135 MPH... 215 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE WILMA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. UNA ESACION AUTOMATICA DE LA MARINA DE MEXICO LOCALIZADA EN ISLA MUJERES HA REPORTADI RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS DE FUERZA HURACANADA DURANTE LAS PASADAS 10 A 12 HORAS CON UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO MAXIMA DE 108 MPH...173 KM/HR. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRALESTIMADA ES DE 935 MILIBARAS...27.61 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN LA PARTE NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA CERCA DE 40 PULGADAS. LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE LLUVIAS CONTINUARAN AFECTANDO SECTORES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...ESPECIALMENTE LOS CAYOS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO. LA BOYA DE NOAA 42003 EN EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO INDICA QUE GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA SE HAN PROPAGADO BIEN HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS POSIBLEMENTE AFECTARAN PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO ESTA NOCHE Y EL SABADO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 AM CDT...20.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 135 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 935 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR