** WTSR20 WSSS 210600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KEYW 211231 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-211530- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 820 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005 ...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOT YET IN EFFECT. WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 150 MPH...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WERE LIKELY TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 930 MB...OR 27.46 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS INITIATED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS AND THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN. A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN DELAYED. OFFICIALS WILL DETERMINE LATER TODAY IF MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR SATURDAY. THE BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL OPEN FOR VESSELS ON THE HALF HOUR. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. GOVERNMENT OFFICES SCHOOLS AND PARKS ARE CLOSED TODAY. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE...AND JGT BUS SERVICE ARE FULLY OPERATIONAL. RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT HAVE TRANSPORTATION CAN CHECK WITH THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE OR THE CITY OF KEY WEST HOTLINE TO GET INFORMATION ON BUS SERVICE. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. THE CITY OF KEY WEST HOTLINE IS 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WE EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO REACH THE KEYS SUNDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD USE CAUTION. CONDITIONS MERITING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY SET IN SATURDAY NIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... WE ANTICIPATE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF WILMA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ CB/DFM ** WTCA44 TJSJ 211315 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT VIERNES 21 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...EL NOROESTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO DE WILMA CERCA DE COZUMEL... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BELIZE DESDE LA FRONTERA CON MEXICO HACIA EL SUR HASTA CIUDAD BELIZE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS AL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y EN LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 7 AM CDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.3 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS... 80 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH.... 9 KILOMETROS POR HORA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE WILMA ESTARA MUY CERCA DE COZUMEL O SOBRE COZUMEL ESTA MANANA Y CERCA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN MAS TARDE HOY. SINEMBARGO...WILMA TIENE UNA CIRCULACION EXTENSA Y ES PROBABLE QUE YA ESTEN OCCURRIENDO CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN COZUMEL Y A LO LARGO DE PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE YUCATAN. EL RADAR DE CANCUN CONTINUA MOSTRANDO FUERTES BANDAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE COZUMEL Y CANCUN. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO LEVEMENTE Y ESTAN AHORA EN CERCA DE 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. LA BOYA DE LA NOAA 42056 LOCALIZADA COMO A 75 MILLAS AL ESTE DEL CENTRO RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 69 MPH CON OLEAJE DE 35 PIES. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 930 MILIBARAS...27.46 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN LA PARTE NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA CERCA DE 40 PULGADAS PARTICULARMENTE EN AREAS ALTAS DEL OESTE DE CUBA. LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE LLUVIAS CONTINUARAN AFECTANDO SECTORES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...ESPECIALMENTE LOS CAYOS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO. LA BOYA DE NOAA 42003 EN EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO INDICA QUE GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA SE HAN PROPAGADO BIEN HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS POSIBLEMENTE AFECTARAN PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO MAS TARDE HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 AM CDT...20.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 145 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 930 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTNT24 KNHC 211441 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 1500Z FRI OCT 21 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 86.5W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 325SE 175SW 325NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 86.5W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 86.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.8N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 87.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 90SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.8N 87.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 90SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.3N 86.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 125SE 75SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 75SW 175NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 39.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 86.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 211442 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 21.3N 87.4W 52 X X X 52 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 4 4 21.8N 87.4W 37 X X X 37 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 22.3N 86.9W 25 1 1 1 28 KEY WEST FL X X 1 9 10 MWCG 193N 814W X X 1 4 5 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 9 9 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 FT MYERS FL X X X 9 9 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 7 7 VENICE FL X X X 9 9 MUSN 216N 826W X 2 3 6 11 TAMPA FL X X X 8 8 MUHA 230N 824W X 1 3 8 12 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 6 6 MUAN 219N 850W 16 3 1 2 22 ST MARKS FL X X X 5 5 MMCZ 205N 869W 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 6 6 MZBZ 175N 883W X 1 2 3 6 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 5 5 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 2 2 PENSACOLA FL X X X 4 4 MHNJ 165N 859W X X 1 3 4 MOBILE AL X X X 3 3 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 3 3 GULFPORT MS X X X 3 3 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 3 3 BURAS LA X X X 5 5 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 4 4 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 2 2 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2 MMMD 210N 897W 15 3 1 1 20 GULF 29N 85W X X X 7 7 MARATHON FL X X 1 8 9 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 6 7 MIAMI FL X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 89W X X 2 6 8 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 4 5 FT PIERCE FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 5 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM SAT TO 7PM SAT C FROM 7PM SAT TO 7AM SUN D FROM 7AM SUN TO 7AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 211451 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 ...NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL OVER COZUMEL... ...CENTER COULD MAKE LANDFALL ON NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN TONIGHT... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL BE OVER COZUMEL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WILMA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED IN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF YUCATAN. CANCUN RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG RAINBANDS OVER COZUMEL AND CANCUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH... 230 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES... 325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 62 MPH... 100 KM/HR... AND 31 FOOT SEAS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE KEYS... WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...20.2 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 211504 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005 WHETHER DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND OR SOME OTHER FACTORS... THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION BRIEFLY WEAKENED EARLIER THIS MORNING... BUT THAT DID NOT LAST LONG. THE RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECONSTITUTED AROUND THE ENTIRE 30 N MI WIDE EYE... WHICH HAS BECOME A LITTLE CLEARER AND WARMER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CANCUN RADAR DEPICTS A VERY SOLID OUTER EYEWALL OVER COZUMEL... AND THE INNER EYEWALL IS LIKELY WEAKER BUT PERHAPS NOT AS WEAK AS IT SEEMS ON RADAR DUE TO ATTENUATION. PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM AMSR-E AND AMSU DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS DEPICT THE OUTER EYEWALL AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 45 N MI... AND EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA CONTAIN WIND MAXIMA AT RADII OF ABOUT 20 AND 45 N MI. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL WILL CONTRACT AND LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM... BUT EYEWALLS WITH THIS LARGE OF A DIAMETER SOMETIMES REMAIN STEADY-STATE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z DID NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE CURRENT ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 125 KT... BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE DEEP CONVECTIVE RING REFORMED. WILMA IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND A MORE EXTENSIVE RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SEEMED TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE UNTIL VERY RECENTLY... WHEN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SLOWED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW NORTHWESTWARD...325/4...AND THE SHORT TERM MOTION MIGHT BE EVEN SLOWER. 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THIS MORNING'S NOAA G-IV JET SURVEILLANCE MISSION INDICATE PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE MORE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN CONTAINED IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECASTS FROM THE 06Z MODELS... SO THE SLOWER MOTION NOW OBSERVED IS NOT SURPRISING. NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE CENTER OF WILMA TO MAKE LANDFALL ON NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN TODAY... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW LONG WILMA WILL SPEND OVER LAND... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHILE ADJUSTED WESTWARD AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...REMAINS TO THE EAST OF MOST OF THE MODELS AND KEEPS WILMA ON LAND FOR LESS THAN 18 HOURS. OBVIOUSLY... A LONGER STAY OVER YUCATAN COULD CAUSE MORE WEAKENING THAN FORECAST...BUT THE OPPOSITE IS ALSO TRUE. IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. FORTUNATELY FOR THE SAKE OF BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS... THE NOGAPS NO LONGER KEEPS WILMA IN THE CARIBBEAN FOR FIVE DAYS AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMAINING MODELS. THIS RESULTS IN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS BEING IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 3-5. HOWEVER... THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS REMAINS QUITE LARGE... AND BOTH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE IMPACTS ON FLORIDA REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN STEADILY WEAKENING WILMA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE PRIMARILY TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER... IF WILMA DOES NOT SPEND MUCH TIME OVER YUCATAN... IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST WHEN IT CROSSES FLORIDA. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 20.2N 86.5W 125 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 20.8N 87.0W 135 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 22/1200Z 21.3N 87.4W 105 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 23/0000Z 21.8N 87.4W 105 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 22.3N 86.9W 100 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 29.5N 77.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 26/1200Z 39.0N 67.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 211511 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 25 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT VIERNES 21 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...LA PARED DE LA PARTE NOROESTE DEL OJO SOBRE COZUMEL... ...EL CENTRO PODRIA TOCAR TIERRA EN EL NORESTE DE YUCATAN ESTA NOCHE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE BELIZE HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BELIZE DESDE LA FRONTERA CON MEXICO HASTA EL SUR HASTA BELIZE CITY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS AL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y EN LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.5 OESTE O COMO A 55 MILLAS... 55 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH.... 7 KILOMETROS POR HORA. EL CENTRO DE WILMA ESTARA SOBRE COZUMEL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS Y ESTARA CERCA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. SINEMBARGO...WILMA TIENE UNA CIRCULACION EXTENSA Y ES POSIBLE QUE YA SE ESTEN EXPERIMENTANDO CONDICIONES HURACANADAS A LO LARGO DE PORCIONES DE LA PARTE NORESTE DE YUCATAN. EL RADAR DE CANCUN CONTINUA MOSTRANDO FUERTE BANDAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE COZUMEL Y CANCUN. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 145 MPH... 230 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN FLUCTUACIONES ANTES DE QUE WILMA TOQUE TIERRA EN LA COSTA NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. LA BOYA DE LA NOAA 42056 RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 62 MPH...100 KM/HR...Y MAREJADAS DE 31 PIES. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 930 MILIBARAS...27.46 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN LA PARTE NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA CERCA DE 40 PULGADAS. LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE LLUVIAS CONTINUARAN AFECTANDO SECTORES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...ESPECIALMENTE LOS CAYOS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS HASTA EL DOMINGO. LA BOYA DE NOAA 42003 EN EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO INDICA QUE GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA SE HAN PROPAGADO BIEN HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS POSIBLEMENTE AFECTARAN PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO MAS TARDE HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...20.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 145 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 930 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1 PM. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTUS82 KEYW 211527 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-211830- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1120 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005 ...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOT YET IN EFFECT. WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST...ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 145 MPH...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 930 MB...OR 27.46 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO ENCOURAGE RESIDENTS VOLUNTARILY TO EVACUATE. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN. THE DECISION ON WHEN TO INITIATE A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BE MADE ONCE SOLID INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE TIMING OF WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THE BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL OPEN FOR VESSELS EVERY HALF HOUR. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. GOVERNMENT OFFICES SCHOOLS AND PARKS ARE CLOSED TODAY. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE...AND JGT BUS SERVICE ARE FULLY OPERATIONAL. RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT HAVE TRANSPORTATION CAN CHECK WITH THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE OR THE CITY OF KEY WEST HOTLINE TO GET INFORMATION ON BUS SERVICE. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. THE CITY OF KEY WEST HOTLINE IS 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. ...MARINE IMPACTS... OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD USE CAUTION. CONDITIONS MERITING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY SET IN SATURDAY NIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... WE ANTICIPATE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF WILMA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM ** WTNT80 EGRR 211703 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.9N 120.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.10.2005 12.9N 120.6W WEAK 00UTC 22.10.2005 13.0N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2005 13.7N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2005 13.6N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2005 13.5N 121.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2005 12.8N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2005 12.0N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2005 11.0N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2005 11.1N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2005 11.2N 128.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 86.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.10.2005 20.2N 86.5W INTENSE 00UTC 22.10.2005 20.5N 86.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2005 20.4N 86.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.10.2005 21.2N 86.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2005 22.2N 86.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2005 23.7N 85.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.10.2005 25.4N 82.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2005 27.9N 77.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.10.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 211703