** WTIN20 DEMS 210620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 21-10-2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER OF NORTH, WEST,CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AAA RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 18.5 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION AAA ====== OVER ** WTNT34 KNHC 210841 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 ...NORTHERN EYEWALL NEARING COZUMEL... ...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA APPROACHES... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR COZUMEL AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MIDDAY TODAY. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY BEING EXPERIENCED IN COZUMEL AND ADJACENT AREAS. CANCUN RADAR SHOWS STRONG RAINBANDS OVER COZUMEL AND CANCUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WILMA REGAINS CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THE KEYS...WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...20.0 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 210842 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0900Z FRI OCT 21 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 86.2W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT.......110NE 90SE 75SW 110NW. 34 KT.......175NE 150SE 120SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 325SE 175SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 86.2W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 86.1W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.4N 86.6W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 110NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 120SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.2N 87.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 90SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.6N 87.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 90SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 75SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 27.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 36.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 86.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 210842 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 21.2N 87.1W 44 X 1 X 45 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 21.6N 87.5W 34 1 X X 35 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 22.0N 87.0W 27 1 1 1 30 KEY WEST FL X X 1 8 9 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 5 5 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 7 7 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 FT MYERS FL X X X 7 7 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 6 6 VENICE FL X X X 7 7 MUSN 216N 826W X 1 3 7 11 TAMPA FL X X X 5 5 MUHA 230N 824W X X 2 9 11 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 4 4 MUAN 219N 850W 13 3 2 3 21 ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3 MMCZ 205N 869W 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 4 4 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 3 4 7 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 4 4 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 2 2 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 MHNJ 165N 859W X X 1 3 4 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 BURAS LA X X X 4 4 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X X 5 5 MMMD 210N 897W 11 4 2 2 19 GULF 29N 87W X X X 6 6 MARATHON FL X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 89W X X 1 6 7 MIAMI FL X X X 5 5 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 4 5 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 FT PIERCE FL X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM SAT TO 1PM SAT C FROM 1PM SAT TO 1AM SUN D FROM 1AM SUN TO 1AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 210842 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005 WILMA IS BEING TRACKED BY THE CANCUN RADAR...NOAA BUOY 42056...AND BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER DEFINED WITH A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A LARGE EYE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IN THE EYE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 929 MB AND SO FAR...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB ARE 130 KNOTS. THIS DOES NOT JUSTIFY AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE EYEWALL THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AND HAVE NOT BEEN SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT YET. SINCE THE EYE IS BECOMING MORE DISTINCT AND IS SHRINKING...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREAFTER...THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE WILMA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WILMA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK...TRACK MODELS MOVE WILMA SLOWLY AND IN ALL DIRECTIONS DURING 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD...MAKING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHERLESS...THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR LITTLE OR ERRATIC MOTION OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN OR THE ADJACENT WATERS UNTIL THE WESTERLIES EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND CARRY WILMA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BEYOND 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS SLOW MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DELAY THE RECURVATURE TOWARD FLORIDA PROLONGING THE AGONIZING WAIT. ON THE OTHER HAND...IT GIVES TIME FOR THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND SHEAR. IN FACT...THE GFDL MODEL REFLECTS THE SLOW MOTION AND HAS A WEAKENED WILMA JUST WEST OF HAVANA CUBA BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5. HOWEVER...IF THE EYE REMAINS OFFSHORE EAST OF YUCATAN LIKE SUGGESTED BY THE LAST RUN OF THE UK MODEL...WILMA COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THERE IS PRACTICALLY NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 20.0N 86.2W 130 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 20.4N 86.6W 140 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 21.2N 87.1W 115 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 22/1800Z 21.6N 87.5W 115 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 87.0W 105 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 23.5N 84.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 27.0N 80.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 26/0600Z 36.0N 70.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 210901 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-211230- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 500 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005 ...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS ADDED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOT YET IN EFFECT. WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TODAY...AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 929 MB...OR 27.43 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN FOR EVACUEES. A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE KEYS THAT WAS PLANNED FOR FRIDAY HAS BEEN DELAYED. OFFICIALS WILL DETERMINE LATER TODAY IF MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR SATURDAY. THE BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL OPEN FOR VESSELS ON THE HALF HOUR. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. GOVERNMENT OFFICES...SCHOOLS...AND PARKS ARE CLOSED TODAY. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE...AND JGT BUS SERVICE ARE FULLY OPERATIONAL. RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT HAVE TRANSPORTATION... CHECK WITH THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE...OR THE CITY OF KEY WEST HOTLINE...TO GET INFORMATION ON BUS SERVICE. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. THE CITY OF KEY WEST HOTLINE IS 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS SUNDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON KEYS WATERS TODAY...AND THEREFORE OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY SET IN SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALING 2 TO 4 INCHES IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH IS BEFORE THE MAIN IMPACT OF WILMA ARRIVES. ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF WILMA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ CB ** WTUS82 KEYW 210906 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-211230- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 500 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005 ...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS ADDED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOT YET IN EFFECT. WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 929 MB...OR 27.43 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN FOR EVACUEES. A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE KEYS THAT WAS PLANNED FOR FRIDAY HAS BEEN DELAYED. OFFICIALS WILL DETERMINE LATER TODAY IF MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR SATURDAY. THE BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL OPEN FOR VESSELS ON THE HALF HOUR. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. GOVERNMENT OFFICES...SCHOOLS...AND PARKS ARE CLOSED TODAY. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE...AND JGT BUS SERVICE ARE FULLY OPERATIONAL. RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT HAVE TRANSPORTATION... CHECK WITH THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE...OR THE CITY OF KEY WEST HOTLINE...TO GET INFORMATION ON BUS SERVICE. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. THE CITY OF KEY WEST HOTLINE IS 305-809-1108. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS SUNDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON KEYS WATERS TODAY...AND THEREFORE OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY SET IN SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALING 2 TO 4 INCHES IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH IS BEFORE THE MAIN IMPACT OF WILMA ARRIVES. ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF WILMA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ CB ** WTCA44 TJSJ 210908 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT VIERNES 21 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...EL NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO ACERCANDOSE A COZUMEL... ...LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO DEBEN CONTINUAR DETERIORANDOSE RAPIDAMENTE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE YUCATAN A MEDIDA QUE EL HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO WILMA SE ACERQUE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BELIZE DESDE LA FRONTERA CON MEXICO HACIA EL SUR HASTA CIUDAD BELIZE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS AL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y EN LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.2 OESTE O COMO A 55 MILLAS... 90 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH.... 9 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE WILMA ESTARA MUY CERCA DE COZUMEL Y EN LA COSTA NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN PARA EL MEDIODIA DE HOY. SIN EMBARGO...WILMA TIENE UNA EXTENSA CIRCULACION Y PODRIAN EXPERIMENTARSE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN COZUMEL Y EN LAS AREAS ADYACENTES. EL RADAR DE CANCUN MUESTRA BANDAS FUERTES DE LLUVIA SOBRE COZUMEL Y CANCUN. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 150 MPH...240 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE UN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA...Y EXISTE LA POSIBILIDAD DE QUE WILMA READQUIERA CATEGORIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. LA ULTIMA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 929 MILIBARAS...27.43 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS HASTA EL SABADO A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA CERCA DE 40 PULGADAS PARTICULARMENTE EN AREAS ALTAS DEL OESTE DE CUBA. LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE LLUVIAS CONTINUARAN AFECTANDO SECTORES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...ESPECIALMENTE LOS CAYOS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS HASTA EL SABADO. LA BOYA DE NOAA 42003 EN EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO INDICA QUE GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR WILMA SE HAN PROPAGADO BIEN HACIA EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTAS MAREJADAS POSIBLEMENTE AFECTARAN PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEOL GOLFO EL VIERNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...20.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 150 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 929 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTNT34 KNHC 211155 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 ...NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL OF WILMA NEAR COZUMEL... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR OR OVER COZUMEL THIS MORNING AND NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... WILMA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED IN COZUMEL AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF YUCATAN. CANCUN RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG RAINBANDS OVER COZUMEL AND CANCUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY AND ARE NEAR 145 MPH... 230 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES... 325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 69 MPH WITH 35 FOOT SEAS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THE KEYS...WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...20.1 N... 86.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$