** WTCA44 TJSJ 201817 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT JUEVES 20 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE HACIA EL YUCATAN... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO PARA LA ISLA SWAN. UN AVISO TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BELIZE DESDE LA FRONTERA CON MEXICO HACIA EL SUR HASTA BELIZE CITY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y LA ISLA DE LA JUEVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS AL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y EN LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LA 1 PM CDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.5 OESTE O COMO A 160 MILLAS... 255 KM... SUR-SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH.... 7 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UNA TRAYECTORIA AL OESTE-NOROESTE O NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 145 MPH...230 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN REFORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 915 MILIBARAS...27.02 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 10 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL CENTRO DONDE TOQUE TIERRA EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS HASTA EL SABADO A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES AISLADAS DE HASTA CERCA DE 40 PULGADAS PARTICULARMENTE EN AREAS MONTANOSAS DEL OESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...LAS ISLAS SWAN...Y PORCIONES DE HONDURAS HASTA EL VIERNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 PM CDT...18.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 145 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 915 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTUS82 KEYW 201851 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-202130- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 250 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOT YET IN EFFECT. WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 470 STATUTE MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IN KEY WEST. MOVEMENT WAS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 145 MPH...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. STRENGTHENING WAS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 915 MB...OR 27.02 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ACT NOW TO PROTECT YOUR HOME AND BUSINESS. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT URGES RESIDENTS VOLUNTARILY TO EVACUATE TODAY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BEGIN. AT 600 AM MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND SPECIAL-NEEDS CLIENTS WILL GO FIRST. STARTING AT NOON FRIDAY ALL RESIDENTS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST WILL BEGIN. AT 300 PM FRIDAY RESIDENTS FROM LONG KEY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WILL GO. FINALLY...AT 600 PM FRIDAY EVACUATION OF ALL RESIDENTS LIVING FROM OCEAN REEF TO LONG KEY WILL TAKE PLACE. OFFICIALS HAVE OPENED THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...JUST FOLLOW THE SIGNS. THE BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL OPEN FOR VESSELS ON THE HALF HOUR UNTIL NOON FRIDAY. THEY WILL BE LOCKED DOWN AT THAT TIME TO ALLOW UNINTERRUPTED FLOW OF VEHICULAR TRAFFIC. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST AIRPORT IS FULLY OPERATIONAL TODAY AS IS GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE. CAR RENTAL AGENCIES WILL HONOR EXISTING RESERVATIONS. GASOLINE IS AVAILABLE THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. REMEMBER THAT GOVERNMENT OFFICES SCHOOLS AND PARKS ARE CLOSED TODAY FRIDAY AND MONDAY. IF YOU HAVE UNANSWERED QUESTIONS CALL THE EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...WIND IMPACTS... WE EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO REACH THE KEYS SATURDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD USE CAUTION. BY FRIDAY WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ...NEXT UPDATE... OUR NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM...OR SOONER IF WE RECEIVE NEW INFORMATION. VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM/AD ** WTPZ41 KNHC 202008 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU OCT 20 2005 A 20/1332Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH NO DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND SURFACE WINDS OF ONLY 25 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS CONTINUED TO BROADEN AND BECOME ILL-DEFINED... WHILE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED. AS SUCH... TD-16E IS QUICKLY DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW... AND THIS WILL BE FINAL ADVISORY... PART DEUX... ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS IS 285/08. THE REMANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THE REMAINDER OF ITS EXISTENCE... WHICH MAY COME TO A DEMISE SOONER THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE ITCZ. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHALLOW BAM. HOWEVER... THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE AN IDENTIFIABLE ENTITY BY 48 HOURS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT OR AT LEAST INHIBIT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 12.8N 119.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 21/0600Z 13.0N 120.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 21/1800Z 13.2N 121.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 22/0600Z 13.4N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/1800Z 13.5N 123.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1800Z 13.5N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1800Z 13.5N 125.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING REM LOW 120HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 202008 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 2100Z THU OCT 20 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 119.3W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 119.3W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 118.9W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.0N 120.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.2N 121.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.4N 122.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.5N 123.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.5N 124.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 13.5N 125.0W...DISSIPATING REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 119.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 202031 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 WILMA HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD...310/5...BUT THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY THE BEGINNINGS OF RECURVATURE. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES...THE OLD LOW FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE PAST THE LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE TRACK MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AS A LITTLE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT IT MAY TAKE THREE SHORT WAVES TO LIFT WILMA OUT OF THE YUCATAN. THE GFDL DID ANOTHER BIG SHIFT WITH ITS 5-DAY FORECAST...FROM CANADA AT 6Z TO CUBA AT 12Z. THERE IS LESS SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS TIME...HOWEVER...LENDING A LITTLE MORE CREDENCE TO A SLOWER TRACK. THE 12Z MODELS ALSO HAD THE BENEFIT OF DROPWINDSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL VERY MUCH FASTER THAN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS IMPLIES THAT THE IMPACT TO FLORIDA COULD WELL BE LATER THAN INDICATED HERE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT WILMA IS BEGINNING TO RESTRENGTHEN. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 145 KT...AND THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ONBOARD MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 125 KT IN THE NORTH EYEWALL. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 130 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG AND WILMA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN...AND THE IMPACTS THERE COULD BE CATASTROPHIC. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE EXTENDED INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN INCREASING...SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE WILMA TURNS TOWARD FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...THE LONGER WILMA LINGERS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD...THE MORE HOSTILE THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.9N 85.7W 130 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.5N 86.4W 140 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 20.4N 87.0W 145 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 22/0600Z 21.1N 87.2W 120 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 22/1800Z 22.0N 87.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 23.5N 84.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 27.5N 79.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 202032 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 2100Z THU OCT 20 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 85.7W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT.......110NE 90SE 75SW 110NW. 34 KT.......175NE 150SE 120SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 300SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 85.7W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 85.5W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 86.4W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 110NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 120SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.4N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 90SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.1N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 90SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 75SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 85.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 202033 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.4N 87.0W 46 X X X 46 MIAMI FL X X X 4 4 21.1N 87.2W 30 1 1 X 32 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 3 3 22.0N 87.0W 15 5 2 2 24 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 MWCG 193N 814W X X 1 4 5 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 KEY WEST FL X X X 8 8 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 6 6 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 6 6 MUSN 216N 826W X 1 4 6 11 FT MYERS FL X X X 5 5 MUHA 230N 824W X X 2 8 10 VENICE FL X X X 5 5 MUAN 219N 850W 9 4 3 3 19 TAMPA FL X X X 4 4 MMCZ 205N 869W 45 X X X 45 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2 MZBZ 175N 883W 3 1 X 2 6 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2 MHNJ 165N 859W X X X 2 2 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X X 3 3 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X X X 4 4 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W X X X 5 5 MMMD 210N 897W 8 7 2 2 19 GULF 28N 91W X X X 4 4 MARATHON FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM FRI TO 1AM SAT C FROM 1AM SAT TO 1PM SAT D FROM 1PM SAT TO 1PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 202042 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...WILMA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 220 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COASTLINE OF THE YUCATAN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA AIRCRAFT WASS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE... PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...18.9 N... 85.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 918 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 202059 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 22 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT JUEVES 20 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA UN POCO MAS FUERTE A MEDIDA QUE SE APROXIMA A YUCATAN... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO PARA LA ISLA SWAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BELIZE DESDE LA FRONTERA CON MEXICO HACIA EL SUR HASTA BELIZE CITY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y LA ISLA DE LA JUEVENTUD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS AL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y EN LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.7 OESTE O COMO A 135 MILLAS... 220 KM... AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH.... 9 KILOMETROS POR HORA Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAR CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE WILMA ESTARA MUY CERCA DE LA LINEA COSTERA DE YUCATAN PARA EL MEDIODIA DE MANANA. SIN EMBARGO...WILMA TIENE UNA EXTENSA CIRCULACION Y CONDICIONES HURACANADAS PODRIAN SENTIRSE MUCHO ANTES DE LA LLEGADA DEL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 155 MPH...240 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN REFORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y WILMA PODRIA READQUIRIR CATEGORIA CINCO A MEDIDA QUE SE APROXIMA A LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA FUE DE 918 MILIBARAS...27.11 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS HASTA EL SABADO A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES AISLADAS DE HASTA CERCA DE 40 PULGADAS PARTICULARMENTE EN AREAS MONTANOSAS DEL OESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...LA ISLA SWAN...Y PORCIONES DE HONDURAS HASTA EL VIERNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...18.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 150 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 918 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM CDT...SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTUS82 KEYW 202114 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-210030- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 515 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOT YET IN EFFECT. WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 465 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 918 MB...OR 27.11 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS. A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE KEYS IS LIKELY TO BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN FOR EVACUEES. THE BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL OPEN FOR VESSELS ON THE HALF HOUR UNTIL NOON FRIDAY. THE BRIDGES WILL BE LOCKED IN THE DOWN POSITION AT NOON ON FRIDAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS FULLY OPERATIONAL TODAY...AND SOME DEPARTING FLIGHTS ARE TENTATIVELY EXPECTED TO OPERATE FRIDAY MORNING. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE IS OPERATING REGULARLY SCHEDULED SERVICE TODAY AND FRIDAY. GOVERNMENT OFFICES...SCHOOLS...AND PARKS ARE CLOSED TODAY AND FRIDAY. BUS SERVICE WILL BE AVAILABLE FRIDAY FOR RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT HAVE TRANSPORTATION. RESIDENTS CAN CALL THE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 1-800-955-5504...OR THE CITY OF KEY WEST HOTLINE AT 305-809-1108 TO GET EXACT TIMES AND LOCATIONS OF BUS STOPS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON KEYS WATERS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTPN31 PHNC 202200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 12.8N 119.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 119.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 13.0N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 13.2N 121.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 13.4N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 13.5N 123.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 13.5N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 13.5N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 11 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTCA31 MHTG 202124Z *** MHTG SIGMET2 VALID 202130/210330 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA TC WILMA OBS AT 2100Z LAT 18.9N LOG 85.7W FRQ TS CB TPS FL500 CENTRE MOV NW 4 KNOTS INTSF. FCST 0600Z TC CENTRE LAT 19.5N LOG 86.4W= ** WTUS82 KEYW 202153 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-210030- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 600 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOT YET IN EFFECT. WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 465 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 918 MB...OR 27.11 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN FOR EVACUEES. A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE KEYS THAT WAS PLANNED FOR FRIDAY HAS BEEN DELAYED. OFFICIALS WILL DETERMINE FRIDAY IF MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR SATURDAY. THE BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL OPEN FOR VESSELS ON THE HALF HOUR. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS FULLY OPERATIONAL TODAY...AND SOME DEPARTING FLIGHTS ARE TENTATIVELY EXPECTED TO OPERATE FRIDAY MORNING. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE IS OPERATING REGULARLY SCHEDULED SERVICE TODAY AND FRIDAY. GOVERNMENT OFFICES...SCHOOLS...AND PARKS ARE CLOSED TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON KEYS WATERS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTNT34 KNHC 202340 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WILMA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD COZUMEL AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 8 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COASTLINE OF THE YUCATAN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER. REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 69 MPH... 111 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 81 MPH... 130 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA AIRCRAFT WAS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...19.1 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 202351 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-210330- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 800 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOT YET IN EFFECT. WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 923 MB...OR 27.26 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN FOR EVACUEES. A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE KEYS THAT WAS PLANNED FOR FRIDAY HAS BEEN DELAYED. OFFICIALS WILL DETERMINE FRIDAY IF MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR SATURDAY. THE BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL OPEN FOR VESSELS ON THE HALF HOUR. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS FULLY OPERATIONAL TODAY...AND SOME DEPARTING FLIGHTS ARE TENTATIVELY EXPECTED TO OPERATE FRIDAY MORNING. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICE IS OPERATING REGULARLY SCHEDULED SERVICE TODAY AND FRIDAY. GOVERNMENT OFFICES...SCHOOLS...AND PARKS ARE CLOSED TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON KEYS WATERS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS