** WTSR20 WSSS 200600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA44 TJSJ 201203 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT JUEVES 20 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO WILMA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA PUNTA ALLEN EN LA PENISULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS CERCANAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA SWAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE Y OESTE DE LA PENISULA DE YUCATAN AL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE AL SUR DE PUNTA ALLEN HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE PUNTA ALLEN HASTA CHETUMAL MEXICO...Y PARA BELIZE DESDE LA FRONTERA CON MEXICO HACIA EL SUR HASTA CIUDAD BELIZE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CUIDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. TAMBIEN PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 7 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.3 NORTE... LONGITUD 85.2 OESTE O COMO A 175 MILLAS...285 KM...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...12 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE MAS TARDE DURANTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 145 MPH...230 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN REFORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 910 MILIBARAS...26.87 PULGADAS. SI EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRA A TIERRA EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN... SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 10 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES HASTA CERCA DE 25 PULGADAS PARTICULARMENTE EN AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA HASTA EL VIERNES. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...ISLA SWAN Y SECTORES DEL NORTE DE HONDURAS DURANTE HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 AM EDT...18.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 145 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 910 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTUS82 KEYW 201241 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-201530- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 800 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NO HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS TIME...SINCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 485 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS REPORTED AT 910 MB...OR 26.87 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS ARE CLOSED. ALL RECREATIONAL AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ARE DIRECTED TO LEAVE THE KEYS. LIVE-ABOARD BOAT RESIDENTS ARE ALSO DIRECTED TO EVACUATE. RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING THEIR HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT THEIR HOMES AND BUSINESSES. A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE KEYS HAS BEEN POSTPONED AND NOW IS PLANNED TO BEGIN AT NOON FRIDAY. OFFICIALS CONTINUE PLANS TO OPEN THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY TODAY TO ACCEPT RESIDENT EVACUEES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS DO NOT PLAN ON OPENING SHELTERS IN THE KEYS. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES IN MONROE COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL BE OPEN ONLY THE HALF-HOUR UNTIL NOON FRIDAY. THE DRAWBRIDGES WILL BE IN THE LOCK DOWN POSITION STARTING AT NOON FRIDAY TO ALLOW UNINTERRUPTED FLOW OF VEHICULAR TRAFFIC. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING BRIEF... LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS...MAY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SET IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ CB ** WTCA31 MHTG 201425Z *** MHTG SIGMET1 VALID 201430/202030 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA TC WILMA OBS AT 1200Z LAT 18.3N LOG 85.2W FRQ TS CB TPS FL500 CENTRE MOS WNW 6 KNOTS NC. FCST 2030Z TC CENTRE LAT 18.9N LOG 85.8W= ** WTNT34 KNHC 201442 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ON THE YUCATAN... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 275 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE... PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...18.4 N... 85.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 201443 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 1500Z THU OCT 20 2005 AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 85.5W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 915 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 75SE 45SW 75NW. 50 KT.......110NE 85SE 60SW 110NW. 34 KT.......225NE 150SE 110SW 225NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 275SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 85.5W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 85.2W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.1N 86.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 75SE 45SW 75NW. 50 KT...110NE 85SE 60SW 110NW. 34 KT...225NE 150SE 110SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.3N 86.9W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.2N 87.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 90SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 40.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 85.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 201443 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.3N 86.9W 41 X X X 41 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 21.2N 87.0W 24 2 1 1 28 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 22.0N 86.2W 9 9 3 2 23 KEY WEST FL X X 1 9 10 MWCG 193N 814W X X 2 5 7 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 8 8 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 3 3 FT MYERS FL X X X 7 7 MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 7 8 VENICE FL X X X 7 7 MUSN 216N 826W X 2 5 7 14 TAMPA FL X X X 6 6 MUHA 230N 824W X X 5 8 13 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 4 4 MUAN 219N 850W 6 8 3 3 20 ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3 MMCZ 205N 869W 38 X X X 38 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 4 4 MZBZ 175N 883W 7 1 X 2 10 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 4 4 MHNJ 165N 859W 2 X 1 2 5 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 3 3 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 3 3 BURAS LA X X X 3 3 MMMD 210N 897W 6 9 2 1 18 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 MARATHON FL X X X 8 8 GULF 29N 85W X X X 5 5 MIAMI FL X X X 6 6 GULF 29N 87W X X X 6 6 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 5 5 GULF 28N 89W X X X 6 6 FT PIERCE FL X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 91W X X X 4 4 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM FRI TO 7PM FRI C FROM 7PM FRI TO 7AM SAT D FROM 7AM SAT TO 7AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 201447 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU OCT 20 2005 IT CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER OF CIRCULATION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS AND NO DOMINANT CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS MUCH AS ANYTHING ELSE...AND IS WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THE 25-KNOT CURRENT INTENSITY IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THE DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 130W. THIS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED STATE OF THE SYSTEM...MAKES STRENGTHENING UNLIKELY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...UNLESS A DEFINITE CENTER IS IDENTIFIED SOON...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED...AGAIN...LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL MOTION OF 285/10 IS A CRUDE ESTIMATE...AT BEST. THE TROUGH ALONG 130W IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD. IF SIXTEEN-E WERE A DEEP AND STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS TROUGH WOULD BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION. HOWEVER THE DEPRESSION IS VERY WEAK...AND WILL PROBABLY NOT RESPOND TO DEEP-LAYER STEERING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 12.6N 118.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 13.0N 119.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 13.5N 121.1W 25 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 13.9N 122.0W 25 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 14.2N 122.5W 25 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 14.5N 123.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 15.0N 124.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 25/1200Z 15.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 201448 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 1500Z THU OCT 20 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 118.3W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 118.3W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 117.9W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.0N 119.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.5N 121.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.9N 122.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.2N 122.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 15.0N 124.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 15.0N 125.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 118.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 201500 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 WILMA CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING...295/6...WHICH REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. FOR THIS REASON...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAOB DATA IN FLORIDA AND TEXAS SUGGEST THAT RIDGING IN THE GULF IS WEAKENING AND IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT WILMA WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET ARE BEING INGESTED INTO THE 12Z MODELS AND WE WILL SOON SEE WHAT IMPACT THESE DATA HAVE ON THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED. RIDGING IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WILMA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A GENERALLY SLOWER RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION. AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA THREAT IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE THREAT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE KEYS...AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW THAT DOWN ANY FURTHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE'S HIGHEST WINDS ALREADY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON... RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE PROGRESSES...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN. WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 18.4N 85.5W 125 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 19.1N 86.2W 130 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 20.3N 86.9W 140 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 21.2N 87.0W 130 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W 120 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 40.0N 68.0W 60 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 201503 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT JUEVES 20 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...AVISOS DE HURACAN EXTENDIDOS HACIA EL SUR EN YUCATAN... A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EXTENDIDO EL AVISO DE HURACAN HACIA EL SUR HASTA CHETUMAL. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA CHETUMAL EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS CERCANAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA SWAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE Y OESTE DE LA PENISULA DE YUCATAN AL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE PUNTA ALLEN HASTA CHETUMAL MEXICO...Y PARA BELIZE DESDE LA FRONTERA CON MEXICO HACIA EL SUR HASTA CIUDAD BELIZE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CUIDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. TAMBIEN PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.4 NORTE... LONGITUD 85.5 OESTE O COMO A 170 MILLAS...275 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE MAS TARDE DURANTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 145 MPH...230 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN REFORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 915 MILIBARAS...27.02 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 10 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL CENTRO DONDE TOQUE TIERRA EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 20 PULGADAS HASTA EL SABADO A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES AISLADAS DE HASTA CERCA DE 40 PULGADAS PARTICULARMENTE EN AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...LAS ISLAS SWAN...Y PORCIONES DE HONDURAS HASTA EL VIERNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...18.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 145 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 915 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 PM CDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTPN31 PHNC 201600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 12.5N 117.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 117.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 13.0N 119.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 13.5N 121.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 13.9N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 14.2N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 14.5N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 15.0N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 15.0N 125.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z.// ** WTUS82 KEYW 201556 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-201830- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1145 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATE. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOT YET IN EFFECT. WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 490 STATUTE MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. MOVEMENT WAS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 145 MPH...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. STRENGTHENING WAS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 915 MB...OR 27.02 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS INITIATED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS EFFECTIVE THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. AT 600 AM FRIDAY THERE WILL BEGIN A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND SPECIAL-NEEDS CLIENTS. AT NOON FRIDAY THE PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL RESIDENTS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST WILL BEGIN. AT 300 PM FRIDAY A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS FROM LONG KEY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WILL COMMENCE. FINALLY...AT 600 PM FRIDAY EVACUATION OF ALL RESIDENTS LIVING FROM LONG KEY TO OCEAN REEF WILL TAKE PLACE. OFFICIALS HAVE OPENED THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY FOR RESIDENTS. REMEMBER THAT GOVERNMENT OFFICES...SCHOOLS AND PARKS ARE CLOSED TODAY...FRIDAY AND MONDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS NOW TO PROTECT THEIR HOMES AND BUSINESSES. THE BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL OPEN ON THE HALF HOUR UNTIL NOON FRIDAY. THEY WILL BE LOCKED DOWN STARTING AT NOON FRIDAY TO ALLOW UNINTERRUPTED FLOW OF VEHICULAR TRAFFIC. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. IF YOU HAVE UNANSWERED QUESTIONS...CALL THE EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS LATE SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM/AD ** WTNT80 EGRR 201713 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.10.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 117.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.10.2005 12.3N 117.8W WEAK 00UTC 21.10.2005 12.7N 118.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2005 13.1N 119.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2005 13.6N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2005 14.0N 120.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.10.2005 14.3N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2005 14.4N 119.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2005 13.1N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2005 11.5N 122.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2005 11.3N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2005 11.3N 125.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2005 10.8N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2005 10.5N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 85.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.10.2005 18.1N 85.3W INTENSE 00UTC 21.10.2005 18.8N 85.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2005 19.7N 86.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2005 20.2N 87.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2005 19.7N 87.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.10.2005 19.8N 88.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 23.10.2005 20.8N 88.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2005 21.2N 88.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.10.2005 22.7N 87.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2005 23.2N 84.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.10.2005 25.5N 80.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.10.2005 29.4N 76.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.10.2005 34.0N 72.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 201713 ** WTNT34 KNHC 201749 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...WILMA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ...7 KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE... PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...18.6 N... 85.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$