** WTUS82 KEYW 200602 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-200930- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 200 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NO HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS TIME...SINCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 485 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE WILMA HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STATUS LATER TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS REPORTED AT 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS ARE CLOSED. ALL RECREATIONAL AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ARE DIRECTED TO LEAVE THE KEYS. LIVE-ABOARD BOAT RESIDENTS ARE ALSO DIRECTED TO EVACUATE. RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING THEIR HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT THEIR HOMES AND BUSINESSES. A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE KEYS IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AT NOON ON THURSDAY. OFFICIALS PLAN TO OPEN THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY ON THURSDAY TO ACCEPT RESIDENT EVACUEES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS DO NOT PLAN ON OPENING SHELTERS IN THE KEYS. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES IN MONROE COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL BE LOCKED IN THE DOWN POSITION AT NOON ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW UNINTERRUPTED FLOW OF VEHICULAR TRAFFIC. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING VERY BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS...MAY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ CB ** WTIN20 DEMS 200620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 20-10-2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER OF NORTH, WEST,PARTS OF SOUTH WEST AND WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AAA RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 18.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION AAA ====== OVER ** WTPZ41 KNHC 200811 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU OCT 20 2005 IT WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IT IS EVEN HARDER TO FIND IT NOW. IT APPEARS THAT CENTER WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE VERY LIMITED CONVECTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION USING CONTINUITY IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD OR WEST NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SEEMS THAT THE CHANCES FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE DIMINISHING SINCE THE CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE SEPARATED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING THE SAME PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY COULD BE HELPFUL IN CLARIFYING IF WE HAVE A DEPRESSION OR NOT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 12.6N 117.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 13.0N 118.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 13.5N 120.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 14.5N 122.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 122.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 15.5N 123.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 16.0N 124.0W 35 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 200811 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 0900Z THU OCT 20 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 117.1W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 117.1W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 116.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 15.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 16.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 117.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 200835 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENSINSULA...FOR NOW.... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 900 MB...26.58 INCHES. IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N... 85.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 900 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 200835 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0900Z THU OCT 20 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 85.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 900 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 110SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 175SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 85.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 85.8W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 37.1N 70.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 85.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 200836 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 AS ANTICIPATED...WILMA IS GOING THROUGH THE WEAKENING PHASE OF AN EYEWALL CYCLE. THIS IS BASED ON MICROWAVE DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH REPORTED EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OF 4 AND 40 N MI IN DIAMETER RESPECTIVELY. THE PLANE ALSO OBSERVED TWO MAXIMUM WIND BANDS...ONE WITH WINDS OF 121 KNOTS...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 903 MB MEASURED BY A SONDE...BUT WITH 23 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE COULD THEN BE A FEW MILLIBARS LOWER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS SPECTACULAR AS IT WAS 12 TO 18 HOURS AGO AND IN FACT...THE EYE IS OBSCURED AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWN TO 130 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE AN OVERESTIMATE SINCE THE MAXIMUM WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 121 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WE ARE ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION. WE DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY WHEN AND IF THE STRENGTHENING PHASE OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BEGIN. SINCE IT IS ASSUMED THAT IT WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE THE FORMATION OF A LARGE EYE LATER TODAY. THEREAFTER...A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THERE WILL BE INCREASING WIND SHEAR. WILMA SHOULD THEN BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST TURN HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET AND THE AVERAGE MOTION OF WILMA IS STILL 295 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL UNITED STATES ADVANCES RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OE MEXICO AND WILMA SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE WEAKNESS. THE SHORT-WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND BRING THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH ENOUGH TO CARRY WILMA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BEFORE THE WESTERLIES BECOME ESTABLISHED...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. WILMA WILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR A DAY OR SO OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEFORE TAKING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IN A TYPICAL RECURVATURE PATTERN. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE USUAL VARIABILITY BUT THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP WILMA MOVING VERY SLOWLY NEAR OR OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THEN SHARPLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT BY DAY FIVE...WILMA SHOULD BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY JUDGING THE EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD AND THE FRONTAL LIKE MOISTURE PATTERN IN MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 18.3N 85.0W 130 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 18.9N 85.8W 135 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 86.5W 145 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 21.0N 87.0W 145 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 22.0N 86.5W 125 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 24.0N 84.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 27.0N 80.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 37.1N 70.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 200836 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.0N 86.5W 42 X X X 42 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 21.0N 87.0W 21 6 1 X 28 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 22.0N 86.5W 6 13 3 2 24 KEY WEST FL X X 1 8 9 MWCG 193N 814W X X 2 5 7 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 8 8 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 FT MYERS FL X X X 7 7 MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 6 7 VENICE FL X X X 7 7 MUSN 216N 826W X 3 4 6 13 TAMPA FL X X X 6 6 MUHA 230N 824W X X 4 8 12 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 4 4 MUAN 219N 850W 6 8 4 2 20 ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3 MMCZ 205N 869W 31 X 1 X 32 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 4 4 MZBZ 175N 883W 6 1 X 2 9 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 4 4 MHNJ 165N 859W 4 X 1 1 6 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 MOBILE AL X X X 3 3 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X X X 3 3 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 3 3 BURAS LA X X X 4 4 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3 MMMD 210N 897W 2 12 2 2 18 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2 MARATHON FL X X X 8 8 GULF 29N 85W X X X 6 6 MIAMI FL X X X 5 5 GULF 29N 87W X X X 6 6 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 89W X X X 7 7 FT PIERCE FL X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 91W X X X 5 5 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM FRI TO 1PM FRI C FROM 1PM FRI TO 1AM SAT D FROM 1AM SAT TO 1AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 200849 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT JUEVES 20 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO WILMA MOVIENDOSE HACIA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...POR AHORA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA PUNTA ALLEN EN LA PENISULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS CERCANAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA SWAN. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO EMITIO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PAR LA COSTA NORTE Y OESTE DE LA PENISULA DE YUCATAN AL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORTE Y OESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE AL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE AL SUR DE PUNTA ALLEN HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE PUNTA ALLEN HASTA CHETUMAL MEXICO...Y PARA BELIZE DESDE LA FRONTERA CON MEXICO HACIA EL SUR HASTA CIUDAD BELIZE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CUIDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. TAMBIEN PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.3 NORTE... LONGITUD 85.0 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS...315 KM...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...CON ALGUNAS OCILACIONES DEL OJO DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE MAS TARDE DURANTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 150 MPH...240 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN REFORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 900 MILIBARAS...26.58 PULGADAS. SI EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRA A TIERRA EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN... SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 10 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES HASTA CERCA DE 25 PULGADAS PARTICULARMENTE EN AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA HASTA EL VIERNES. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...ISLA SWAN Y SECTORES DEL NORTE DE HONDURAS DURANTE HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM EDT...18.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 150 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 900 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTUS82 KEYW 200905 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-201230- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 500 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NO HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS TIME...SINCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS REPORTED AT 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS ARE CLOSED. ALL RECREATIONAL AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ARE DIRECTED TO LEAVE THE KEYS. LIVE-ABOARD BOAT RESIDENTS ARE ALSO DIRECTED TO EVACUATE. RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING THEIR HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT THEIR HOMES AND BUSINESSES. A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE KEYS MAY BEGIN AT NOON TODAY. OFFICIALS PLAN TO OPEN THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY TO ACCEPT RESIDENT EVACUEES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS DO NOT PLAN ON OPENING SHELTERS IN THE KEYS. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES IN MONROE COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL BE LOCKED IN THE DOWN POSITION AT NOON ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW UNINTERRUPTED FLOW OF VEHICULAR TRAFFIC. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING BRIEF... LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS...MAY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SET IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ CB ** WTPN31 PHNC 201000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 12.5N 116.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 116.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 13.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 13.5N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 14.0N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 14.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 15.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 15.5N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.0N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 201151 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENSINSULA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 285 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...12 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 910 MB...26.87 INCHES. IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 910 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$