** WTSR20 WSSS 191800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA31 MHTG 200032Z *** MHTG SIGMET4 VALID 200030/200630 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA TC WILMAOBS AT 0000Z LAT 17.5N LOG 83.5W FRQ TS CB TPS FL500 CENTRE MOV WNW 5 KNOTS NC. FCST 0630Z TC CENTRE LAT 17.7N LOG 83.7W= ** WTNT74 KNHC 200231 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.8N 86.0W 43 X X X 43 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 20.8N 86.5W 20 6 1 X 27 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 21.8N 86.6W 3 16 3 1 23 KEY WEST FL X X 1 8 9 MWCG 193N 814W X X 2 4 6 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 7 7 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 FT MYERS FL X X X 6 6 MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 6 7 VENICE FL X X X 6 6 MUSN 216N 826W 1 3 4 5 13 TAMPA FL X X X 5 5 MUHA 230N 824W X 1 3 7 11 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 4 4 MUAN 219N 850W 4 10 4 2 20 ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2 MMCZ 205N 869W 23 4 1 X 28 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 3 3 MZBZ 175N 883W 4 1 1 1 7 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 3 3 MHNJ 165N 859W 4 X X 2 6 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2 BURAS LA X X X 3 3 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 MMMD 210N 897W X 11 4 2 17 GULF 29N 85W X X X 5 5 MARATHON FL X X X 7 7 GULF 29N 87W X X X 5 5 MIAMI FL X X X 5 5 GULF 28N 89W X X X 6 6 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 91W X X X 5 5 FT PIERCE FL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 200235 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...COULD RE-INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 380 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH... 79 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH... 90 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 894 MB...26.40 INCHES. IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 894 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 200235 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0300Z THU OCT 20 2005 AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.3W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 894 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 110SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 175SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.3W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 84.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 85.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.8N 86.0W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 86.5W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.8N 86.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 38.0N 70.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 84.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 200237 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 0300Z THU OCT 20 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 115.9W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 115.9W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 115.4W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.5N 117.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.9N 119.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.2N 120.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 15.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 200245 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED OCT 19 2005 THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING AND IS DIFFICULT TO FIND ON THE FINAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY. IT IS TEMPTING TO POSITION THE CENTER IN AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL BUT IT IS BELIEVED THAT THIS SWIRL IS ROTATING INSIDE THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE. THIS IDEA IS PARTIALLY SUPPORTED BY A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE TRMM PASS WAS FAR FROM CONCLUSIVE. WHEREVER THE EXACT POSITION... THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF 16-E ARE WEAKENING RAPIDLY WITH NO CONVECTION WITHIN AT LEAST 75 NM OF THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS ARE FALLING FROM SAB AND TAFB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN A BIT OF AN ENIGMA BY NOT BEING ABLE TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY CULPRIT IS DRY AIR SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES... PROBABLY SUPRESSING CONVECTION DESPITE MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. SHIPS CONTINUES TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY WHICH COULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO REACH STORM INTENSITY IN A DAY OR TWO WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE TONIGHT.. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF SHIPS WERE INCORRECT AND THE CYCLONE BECAME A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/9. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST. A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AT EXTENDED RANGES...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...ALLOWING A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 12.4N 115.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 12.5N 117.3W 25 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 12.9N 119.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 13.2N 120.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 13.5N 121.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 122.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 15.0N 122.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 15.5N 123.5W 35 KT $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 200245 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-200630- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NO HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS TIME...SINCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STATUS ON THURSDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 894 MB...OR 26.40 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS ARE CLOSED. ALL RECREATIONAL AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ARE DIRECTED TO LEAVE THE KEYS. LIVE-ABOARD BOAT RESIDENTS ARE ALSO DIRECTED TO EVACUATE. RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING THEIR HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT THEIR HOMES AND BUSINESSES. A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE KEYS IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AT NOON ON THURSDAY. OFFICIALS PLAN TO OPEN THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY ON THURSDAY TO ACCEPT RESIDENT EVACUEES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS DO NOT PLAN ON OPENING SHELTERS IN THE KEYS. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES IN MONROE COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL BE LOCKED IN THE DOWN POSITION AT NOON ON THURSDAY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING VERY BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...MAY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTCA44 TJSJ 200302 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MIERCOLES 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA SE DEBILITA LEVEMENTE A UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO... PODRIA REINTENSIFICARSE EL JUEVES... A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO EXTENDIO EL AVISO DE HURACAN HACIA EL SUR A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN HASTA PUNTA ALLEN. ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA PUNTA ALLEN EN LA PENISULA DE YUCATAN... INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS CERCANAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA SWAN. A LAS 10 PM CDT...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO EMITIO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS COSTAS NORTE Y OESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUM. TAMBIEN PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL SUR DE PUNTA ALLEN HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE PUNTA ALLEN HASTA CHETUMAL MEXICO...Y PARA BELIZE DESDE LA FRONTERA CON MEXICO HACIA EL SUR HASTA CIUDAD BELIZE. A LAS 11 PM EDT...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA EMITIO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CUIDAD DE LA HABANA... PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. TAMBIEN PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.1 NORTE... LONGITUD 84.3 OESTE O COMO A 235 MILLAS...380 KM...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...CON ALGUNAS VARIACIONES. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 155 MPH...250 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON COMUNES EN HURACANES DE ESTA INTENSIDAD...Y ESTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. WILMA PODRIA NUEVAMENTE ADQUIRIR INTENSIDAD DE CATEGORIA CINCO EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA BOYA DE NOAA 42056 RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 49 MPH...79 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON UNA RAFAGA DE 56 MPH...90 KILOMETROS POR HORA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 894 MILIBARAS...26.40 PULGADAS. SI EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRA A TIERRA EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN... SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 10 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES HASTA CERCA DE 25 PULGADAS PARTICULARMENTE EN AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA HASTA EL VIERNES. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...ISLA SWAN Y SECTORES DEL NORTE DE HONDURAS HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...18.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 155 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 894 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTNT44 KNHC 200307 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT WILMA HAD A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 892 MB INSIDE THE 4 N MI WIDE EYE...ALONG WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140-150 KT. SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED. ADDITIONALLY...A 00Z SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED AS A 40 N MI WIDE OUTER EYEWALL BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 135 KT. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE WILMA AROUND 05Z-06Z. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY WOBBLY 300/7. IN THE SHORT TERM...A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF WILMA SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER 24-36 HR...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. S.. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW WILMA TO TURN NORTHWARD...WHILE THE STRONGER TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RECURVE THE STORM INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR EARLIER NO-STALL RECURVATURE SCENARIO...THUS INCREASING THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH 72-96 HR. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS SLOWER FOR THE FIRST 96 HR THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48 HR...THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 48-96 HR. HOWEVER...EVEN THIS SLOWER FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK IS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WILMA SHOULD UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR. THE FIRST 36 HR OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT WILMA WILL RE-INTENSIFY WHEN THE CYCLE IS OVER. THERE IS A CHANCE WILMA COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BEFORE THE EYEWALL CYCLE ENDS. THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR ONCE WILMA REACHES THE THE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THAT BEING SAID...WILMA IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH FLORIDA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EVEN COOLER WATER. THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES THAT COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY OF WILMA. THE FIRST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDFALL OVER YUCATAN OR THE INTERACTION WITH THE PENINSULA IN THE FORECAST CLOSE APPROACH. A LANDFALL WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER STORM...WHILE INTERACTION COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE SECOND IS POSSIBLE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND PHASING WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AFTER 96 HR. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...WILMA COULD BECOME A POWERFUL STORM EITHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OR THE NORTHEASTERN U. S.. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 18.1N 84.3W 135 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 18.8N 85.2W 135 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 19.8N 86.0W 145 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 20.8N 86.5W 145 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 21.8N 86.6W 125 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 24.0N 84.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 27.0N 80.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 38.0N 70.5W 65 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 115.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 115.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 12.9N 117.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 12.9N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 13.2N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 13.5N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 15.5N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 200510 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.10.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 115.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.10.2005 12.3N 115.8W WEAK 12UTC 20.10.2005 12.1N 117.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2005 12.2N 119.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2005 13.0N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2005 13.6N 119.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2005 13.9N 119.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.10.2005 13.9N 119.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2005 13.9N 119.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2005 13.7N 120.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2005 12.9N 121.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2005 12.9N 122.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2005 13.0N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2005 13.1N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 84.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.10.2005 17.9N 84.0W INTENSE 12UTC 20.10.2005 18.7N 85.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2005 19.7N 85.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2005 20.6N 86.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2005 21.2N 86.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2005 21.8N 86.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.10.2005 22.1N 86.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2005 23.1N 85.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2005 24.5N 82.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2005 26.8N 77.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2005 30.7N 72.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.10.2005 37.5N 64.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.10.2005 43.7N 56.0W EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 200510 ** WTNT34 KNHC 200538 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...WILMA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA HAS MOVING BETWEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 899 MB...26.55 INCHES. IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.7 W. MOVEMENT BETWEEN...WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...899 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 200549 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT JUEVES 20 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA CONTINUA COMO UN HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA PUNTA ALLEN EN LA PENISULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS CERCANAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA SWAN. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS COSTAS NORTE Y OESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL OESTE DE SAN FELIPE HASTA CELESTUM. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL SUR DE PUNTA ALLEN HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE PUNTA ALLEN HASTA CHETUMAL MEXICO...Y PARA BELIZE DESDE LA FRONTERA CON MEXICO HACIA EL SUR HASTA CIUDAD BELIZE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CUIDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. TAMBIEN PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.1 NORTE... LONGITUD 84.7 OESTE O COMO A 215 MILLAS...345 KM...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...CON ALGUNAS VARIACIONES. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE MAS TARDE DURANTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 155 MPH...250 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON COMUNES EN HURACANES DE ESTA INTENSIDAD...Y ESTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. WILMA PODRIA NUEVAMENTE ADQUIRIR INTENSIDAD DE CATEGORIA CINCO HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 899 MILIBARAS...26.55 PULGADAS. SI EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRA A TIERRA EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN... SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 10 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL OESTE DE CUBA Y LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES HASTA CERCA DE 25 PULGADAS PARTICULARMENTE EN AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA HASTA EL VIERNES. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...ISLA SWAN Y SECTORES DEL NORTE DE HONDURAS DURANTE HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...18.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 155 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 899 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR