** WTCA44 TJSJ 191805 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 17A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT MIERCOLES 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA SE DEBILITA UN POCO... A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA TULUM EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS CERCANAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA SWAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE TULUM HASTA CHETUMAL. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA BELIZE DESDE EL BORDE DE MEXICO AL SUR HASTA LA CUIDAD DE BELIZE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CABO CATOCHE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS AL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SE PUEDEN ESPERAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.5 NORTE... LONGITUD 83.5 OESTE O COMO A A 300 MILLAS...480 KM...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 165 MPH...270 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATASTROFICO DE CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON ANTICIPADOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA SE ESTIMA EN 900 MILIBARAS...26.58 PULGADAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ESTARA EN EL CENTRO DE WILMA PRONTAMENTE PARA PROVEER UNA MEDIDA EXACTA DE LA PRESION CENTRAL. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 25 PULGADAS EN LAS AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA HASTA EL VIERNES. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...SWAN ISLAND...Y JAMAICA HASTA EL JUEVES. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE TORMENTA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS AL NORTE HASTA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...17.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 165 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 900 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTUS82 KEYW 191805 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-192130- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NO HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS TIME...SINCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE WILMA IS WOBBLING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 900 MB...OR 26.58 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING AS OF NOON TODAY. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS HAVE BEGUN TO CLOSE BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY...AND ALL RECREATIONAL AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ARE DIRECTED TO LEAVE THE KEYS. LIVE-ABOARD BOAT RESIDENTS ARE ALSO DIRECTED TO EVACUATE. RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING THEIR HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT THEIR HOME AND BUSINESS...AND BE READY TO EVACUATE WHEN ORDERED BY MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. EVACUATION ORDERS FOR RESIDENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY HAD BEEN DECLARED BY MONROE COUNTY AT 800 AM THIS MORNING. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES IN MONROE COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING VERY BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST WINDS OF 15 KNOTS TODAY...MAY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION BEGINNING TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM EDT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ RIZZO ** WTUS82 KEYW 191805 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-192130- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NO HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS TIME...SINCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE WILMA IS WOBBLING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 900 MB...OR 26.58 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING AS OF NOON TODAY. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS HAVE BEGUN TO CLOSE BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY...AND ALL RECREATIONAL AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ARE DIRECTED TO LEAVE THE KEYS. LIVE-ABOARD BOAT RESIDENTS ARE ALSO DIRECTED TO EVACUATE. RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING THEIR HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT THEIR HOME AND BUSINESS...AND BE READY TO EVACUATE WHEN ORDERED BY MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. EVACUATION ORDERS FOR RESIDENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY HAD BEEN DECLARED BY MONROE COUNTY AT 800 AM THIS MORNING. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES IN MONROE COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING VERY BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST WINDS OF 15 KNOTS TODAY...MAY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION BEGINNING TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM EDT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ RIZZO ** WTCA31 MHTG 191830Z *** MHTG SIGMET4 VALID 191830/200030 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA TC WILMA OBS AT 1800Z LAT 17.5N LOG 83.5W FRQ TS CB TPS FL500 CENTRE MOV WNW 5 KNOTS NC. FCST 0030Z TC CENTRE LAT 18.0N LOG 84.0W= ** WTCA44 TJSJ 191920 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 17A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT MIERCOLES 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA SE DEBILITA UN POCO... A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA TULUM EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS CERCANAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA SWAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE TULUM HASTA CHETUMAL. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA BELIZE DESDE EL BORDE DE MEXICO AL SUR HASTA LA CUIDAD DE BELIZE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CABO CATOCHE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS AL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SE PUEDEN ESPERAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.5 NORTE... LONGITUD 83.5 OESTE O COMO A A 300 MILLAS...480 KM...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 165 MPH...270 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATASTROFICO DE CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON ANTICIPADOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA SE ESTIMA EN 900 MILIBARAS...26.58 PULGADAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ESTARA EN EL CENTRO DE WILMA PRONTAMENTE PARA PROVEER UNA MEDIDA EXACTA DE LA PRESION CENTRAL. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 25 PULGADAS EN LAS AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA HASTA EL VIERNES. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...SWAN ISLAND...Y JAMAICA HASTA EL JUEVES. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE TORMENTA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS AL NORTE HASTA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...17.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 165 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 900 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTPZ41 KNHC 192005 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED OCT 19 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TD-16E CIRCULATION... UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS WHERE THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE FLAREUPS HAD FIZZLED OUT BY THIS TIME. THE ITCZ HAS ALSO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE... SUGGESTING THAT THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND AIRMASS STABILIZATION OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS HAS DECREASED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB AND T1.0/25 KT FROM SAB USING A BANDING PATTERN. HOWEVER... A SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS A DATA T-NUMBER OF AT LEAST T2.5/35 KT. A NESDIS/CIRA AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 19/1334Z WAS 1006 MB AND 30 KT. A BLEND OF ALL THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS 30 KT... WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL 280/9... EVEN THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN SPEED AS HIGH AS 13 KT. A BROAD BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE BASICALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE WEAKENING RIDGE... IN COMBINATION AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW... MAY HELP TO LIFT THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ...BUT THE LARGE-SCALE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DESPITE THE DRY MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 24 HOURS... AND THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST GRADUALLY MOISTEN. THESE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND THEN SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER... ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3-5. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 12.4N 115.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 12.5N 116.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 12.7N 118.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 13.1N 119.9W 35 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 13.5N 121.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 14.1N 122.2W 40 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 14.5N 123.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 15.0N 124.0W 35 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 192007 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 2100Z WED OCT 19 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 115.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 115.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.5N 116.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.7N 118.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.1N 119.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.1N 122.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 14.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 192041 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 2100Z WED OCT 19 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 83.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 892 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 175SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 83.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 84.6W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.2N 85.6W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 86.2W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.6N 86.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 27.5N 79.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 36.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 83.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 192042 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.2N 85.6W 42 X X X 42 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 20.4N 86.2W 16 10 1 1 28 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 21.6N 86.3W 1 17 3 2 23 KEY WEST FL X X 1 8 9 MWCG 193N 814W X 1 2 4 7 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 7 7 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 FT MYERS FL X X X 7 7 MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 7 8 VENICE FL X X X 7 7 MUSN 216N 826W 1 4 4 5 14 TAMPA FL X X X 5 5 MUHA 230N 824W X 1 4 7 12 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 4 4 MUAN 219N 850W 1 13 4 3 21 ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3 MMCZ 205N 869W 7 17 1 1 26 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 4 4 MZBZ 175N 883W 7 2 1 1 11 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 3 3 MHNJ 165N 859W 15 X X X 15 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 3 3 BURAS LA X X X 3 3 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 MMMD 210N 897W X 7 6 3 16 GULF 29N 85W X X X 5 5 MARATHON FL X X X 8 8 GULF 29N 87W X X X 5 5 MIAMI FL X X X 5 5 GULF 28N 89W X X X 6 6 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 91W X X X 4 4 FT PIERCE FL X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 192046 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...WILMA CONTINUES TOWARD THE YUCATAN AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES... 460 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892 MB...26.34 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 83.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 892 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 12.3N 114.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 114.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 12.5N 116.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 12.7N 118.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 13.1N 119.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 13.5N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.1N 122.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 14.5N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 15.0N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.// ** WTUS82 KEYW 192102 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-190030- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 505 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NO HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS TIME...SINCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 892 MB...OR 26.34 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS HAVE BEGUN TO CLOSE AS OF NOON TODAY. ALL RECREATIONAL AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ARE DIRECTED TO LEAVE THE KEYS. LIVE-ABOARD BOAT RESIDENTS ARE ALSO DIRECTED TO EVACUATE. RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING THEIR HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT THEIR HOMES AND BUSINESSES. BE READY TO EVACUATE WHEN ORDERED BY MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. EVACUATION ORDERS FOR RESIDENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY WAS ENACTED AT 800 AM THIS MORNING. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES IN MONROE COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING VERY BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...MAY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION BEGINNING THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTNT44 KNHC 192106 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892 MB...WITH PEAK 700 MB WINDS OF 152 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 140 KT. AIRCRAFT REPORTS...AS WELL AS MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE INNER 5-MILE-WIDE EYE OF WILMA IS WEAKENING WITHIN TWO OUTER EYEWALLS... ONE 10 MILES WIDE AND ANOTHER ABOUT 45 MILES ACROSS. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS MEANS THAT THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE TIME FOR WILMA TO REINTENSITY BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN. WITH AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY THAT THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN...I HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY FORECAST SLIGHTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.7N 83.7W 140 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 84.6W 135 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 19.2N 85.6W 145 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 20.4N 86.2W 145 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 21.6N 86.3W 120 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 27.5N 79.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 36.0N 70.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 192114 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MIERCOLES 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA CONTINUA HACIA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN COMO UN POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA TULUM EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS CERCANAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA SWAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE TULUM HASTA CHETUMAL MEXICO...Y PARA BELIZE DESDE LA FRONTERA CON MEXICO HACIA EL SUR HASTA CIUDAD DE BELIZE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL SUR DE TULUM HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 83.7 OESTE O COMO A 285 MILLAS...460 KM...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 160 MPH...260 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA INFORMADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 892 MILIBARAS...26.34 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 25 PULGADAS EN AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA HASTA EL VIERNES. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...SWAN ISLAND...Y JAMAICA HASTA EL JUEVES. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 10 A 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES DESDE HONDURAS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA PENINSULA DE MEXICO HASTA EL JUEVES. SI EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRA A TIERRA EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN... SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 10 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...17.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 160 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 892 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTUS82 KEYW 192210 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-200030- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 505 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NO HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS TIME...SINCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 892 MB...OR 26.34 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS HAVE BEGUN TO CLOSE AS OF NOON TODAY. ALL RECREATIONAL AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ARE DIRECTED TO LEAVE THE KEYS. LIVE-ABOARD BOAT RESIDENTS ARE ALSO DIRECTED TO EVACUATE. RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING THEIR HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT THEIR HOMES AND BUSINESSES. BE READY TO EVACUATE WHEN ORDERED BY MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. EVACUATION ORDERS FOR RESIDENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY WAS ENACTED AT 800 AM THIS MORNING. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES IN MONROE COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING VERY BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...MAY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION BEGINNING THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTNT34 KNHC 192338 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...WILMA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES... 435 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...WITH SOME WOBBLES. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 892 MB...26.34 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.9 N... 83.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 892 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 192354 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 18A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT MIERCOLES 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA CONTINUA HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE HACIA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN COMO UN POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA TULUM EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS CERCANAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA SWAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE TULUM HASTA CHETUMAL MEXICO...Y PARA BELIZE DESDE LA FRONTERA CON MEXICO HACIA EL SUR HASTA CIUDAD BELIZE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL SUR DE TULUM HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.9 NORTE... LONGITUD 83.9 OESTE O COMO A 270 MILLAS...435 KM...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...CON ALGUNAS VARIACIONES. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 160 MPH...260 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON COMUNES EN HURACANES DE ESTA INTENSIDAD...Y ESTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 892 MILIBARAS...26.34 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES HASTA CERCA DE 25 PULGADAS EN AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA HASTA EL VIERNES. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...ISLA SWAN... Y JAMAICA HASTA EL JUEVES. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 10 A 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES DESDE HONDURAS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA PENINSULA DE MEXICO HASTA EL JUEVES. SI EL CENTRO DE WILMA ENTRA A TIERRA EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN... SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 7 A 10 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...17.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 160 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 892 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTUS82 KEYW 192355 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-200330- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 800 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NO HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS TIME...SINCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 892 MB...OR 26.34 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS ARE CLOSED. ALL RECREATIONAL AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ARE DIRECTED TO LEAVE THE KEYS. LIVE-ABOARD BOAT RESIDENTS ARE ALSO DIRECTED TO EVACUATE. RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING THEIR HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT THEIR HOMES AND BUSINESSES. BE READY TO EVACUATE WHEN ORDERED BY MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. A PHASED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE KEYS IS LIKELY TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. OFFICIALS PLAN TO OPEN THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY ON THURSDAY TO ACCEPT RESIDENT EVACUEES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS DO NOT PLAN ON OPENING SHELTERS IN THE KEYS. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES IN MONROE COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DRAWBRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL BE LOCKED IN THE DOWN POSITION AT NOON ON THURSDAY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING VERY BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...MAY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS