** WTSR20 WSSS 190600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA44 TJSJ 191212 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 16A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT MIERCOLES 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 WILMA MANTENIENDOSE COMO CATEGORIA CINCO...MARCA DE PRESION CONFIRMADA POR LA TRIPULACION DEL AVION... UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CABO CATOCHE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. PERMANECE EN EFECTON UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.2 NORTE... LONGITUD 82.8 OESTE O COMO A A 340 MILLAS...550 KM...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 175 MPH...280 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATASTROFICO DE CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON ANTICIPADOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KILOMETROS. BASADO EN LA RADIOSONDA Y LA INFROMACION A NIVEL DE VUELO DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO JUSTO RETORNANDO DE SU MISION EN WILMA...LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA SE ESTIMA 882 MB...26.05 PULGADAS. ESTA ES LA PRESION MAS BAJA EN LA HISTORIA PARA UN HURACAN EN EL ATLANTICO. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 25 PULGADAS EN LAS AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA HASTA EL VIERNES. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...SWAN ISLAND...Y JAMAICA HASTA EL JUEVES. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE TORMENTA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS AL NORTE HASTA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...17.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 175 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 882 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTCA44 TJSJ 191235 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 16A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT MIERCOLES 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 WILMA MANTENIENDOSE COMO CATEGORIA CINCO...MARCA DE PRESION CONFIRMADA POR LA TRIPULACION DEL AVION... UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CABO CATOCHE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. PERMANECE EN EFECTON UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.2 NORTE... LONGITUD 82.8 OESTE O COMO A A 340 MILLAS...550 KM...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 175 MPH...280 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATASTROFICO DE CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON ANTICIPADOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KILOMETROS. BASADO EN LA RADIOSONDA Y LA INFORMACION A NIVEL DE VUELO DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO JUSTO RETORNANDO DE SU MISION EN WILMA...LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA SE ESTIMA 882 MB...26.05 PULGADAS. ESTA ES LA PRESION MAS BAJA EN LA HISTORIA PARA UN HURACAN EN EL ATLANTICO. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 25 PULGADAS EN LAS AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA HASTA EL VIERNES. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...SWAN ISLAND...Y JAMAICA HASTA EL JUEVES. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE TORMENTA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS AL NORTE HASTA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...17.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 175 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 882 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTCA31 MHTG 191233 *** MHTG SIGMET3 VALID 191200Z/191800 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA TC WILMA OBS AT 1000Z 17.2N LOG 82.5W FRQ TS CB TPS FL500 CENTRE MVNG WNW 13 KPH INTSF. FCST 1800Z TC CE CENTRE 17.7N 83.1W ** WTPZ41 KNHC 191425 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED OCT 19 2005 THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO BE RE-CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED AGAIN. MY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIRA/NESDIS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...SO ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...280/9. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...THAT IS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF SIXTEEN-E...IS LIKELY TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 3-5 DAYS...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL PROBABLY BECOME VERY WEAK BY THAT TIME. THUS...LITTLE MOVEMENT IS FORECAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 12.2N 113.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 12.3N 115.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 12.5N 116.9W 25 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 12.7N 118.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 13.2N 119.8W 35 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 14.0N 121.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 191426 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 1500Z WED OCT 19 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 113.6W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 113.6W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.3N 115.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.5N 116.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.7N 118.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.2N 119.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 113.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 191437 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND NEARBY ISLANDS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SWAN ISLAND. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES... 520 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 882 MB...26.05 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 83.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 882 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 191438 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 1500Z WED OCT 19 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SWAN ISLAND. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER SOUTH TO BELIZE CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 83.2W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 882 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 83.2W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 82.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. 50 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.1N 85.1W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.9W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 86.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 39.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 83.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 191439 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.1N 85.1W 41 X X 1 42 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 20.4N 85.9W 13 13 1 1 28 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 21.5N 86.2W 1 18 3 1 23 KEY WEST FL X X 1 8 9 MWCG 193N 814W 2 2 1 4 9 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 7 7 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 FT MYERS FL X X X 7 7 MUCF 221N 805W X X 2 6 8 VENICE FL X X X 6 6 MUSN 216N 826W 1 5 4 4 14 TAMPA FL X X X 5 5 MUHA 230N 824W X 1 4 7 12 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 4 4 MUAN 219N 850W X 14 4 3 21 ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3 MMCZ 205N 869W 4 20 1 1 26 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 4 4 MZBZ 175N 883W 4 3 1 1 9 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 3 3 MHNJ 165N 859W 8 X 1 1 10 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2 BURAS LA X X X 3 3 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 MMMD 210N 897W X 7 6 2 15 GULF 29N 85W X X X 5 5 MARATHON FL X X X 8 8 GULF 29N 87W X X X 5 5 MIAMI FL X X X 5 5 GULF 28N 89W X X X 6 6 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 91W X X X 5 5 FT PIERCE FL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 191452 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MIERCOLES 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN WILMA DE CATEGORIA CINCO CONTINUA OESTE NOROESTE...AVISO DE HURACAN EMITIDO PARA PORCIONES DE YUCATAN... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SAN FELIPE HASTA TULUM EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS CERCANAS. CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON TAMBIEN POSIBLES EN LA ISLA SWAN. A LAS 11 AM EDT...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL SUR DE TULUM HASTA CHETUMAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...EL GOBIERNO DE BELIZE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BELIZE DESDE EL BORDE DE MEXICO AL SUR HASTA LA CUIDAD DE BELIZE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CABO CATOCHE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. PERMANECE EN EFECTON UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DEL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN WILMA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SE PUEDEN ESPERAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.4 NORTE... LONGITUD 83.2 OESTE O COMO A A 325 MILLAS...520 KM...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...12 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 175 MPH...280 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATASTROFICO DE CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON ANTICIPADOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA SE ESTIMA EN 882 MILIBARAS...26.05 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 25 PULGADAS EN LAS AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA HASTA EL VIERNES. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...SWAN ISLAND...Y JAMAICA HASTA EL JUEVES. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE TORMENTA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS AL NORTE HASTA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...17.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 175 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 882 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTNT44 KNHC 191459 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH WILMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 150 KT PENDING FURTHER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS A BLEND OF THE 881 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE 884 MB FROM AN EYE DROP THAT SPLASHED IN 23 KT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER WIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY OF WILMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THESE ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE WILMA ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS IDEAL AS THEY ARE NOW AND SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...AS WILMA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LOW...THE WIND FIELD OF WILMA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM AT 5 DAYS. PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN MOTION OF 300/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND. IN THIS SCENARIO...WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN FOUR DAYS. THE ECMWF AND IN PARTICULAR THE UKMET...BOTH OLDER RUNS...DO NOT YET INDICATE THIS. THE FIVE-DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THAN THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.4N 83.2W 150 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 84.0W 150 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.1N 85.1W 150 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.9W 145 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 86.2W 135 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 39.0N 69.0W 80 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 12.1N 113.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 113.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 12.3N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 12.5N 116.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 12.7N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 13.2N 119.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 14.0N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 14.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 14.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z. // ** WTUS82 KEYW 191526 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-191830- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1130 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS BEGINNING NOON TODAY... ...NO HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS TIME...SINCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 505 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 982 MB...OR 26.05 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY...AND ALL RECREATIONAL AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ARE DIRECTED TO LEAVE THE KEYS. LIVE-ABOARD BOAT RESIDENTS ARE ALSO DIRECTED TO EVACUATE. A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY HAD BEEN DECLARED BY MONROE COUNTY AT 800 AM THIS MORNING. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES IN MONROE COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD WILL BE SUSPENDED BEGINNING NOON TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING VERY BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST WINDS OF 15 KNOTS TODAY...MAY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION BEGINNING TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM EDT. $$ RIZZO ** WTUS82 KEYW 191532 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-191830- HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1130 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE AND ADDED MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS BEGINNING NOON TODAY... ...NO HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS TIME...SINCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 505 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 882 MB...OR 26.05 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY...AND ALL RECREATIONAL AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ARE DIRECTED TO LEAVE THE KEYS. LIVE-ABOARD BOAT RESIDENTS ARE ALSO DIRECTED TO EVACUATE. A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY HAD BEEN DECLARED BY MONROE COUNTY AT 800 AM THIS MORNING. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES IN MONROE COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD WILL BE SUSPENDED BEGINNING NOON TODAY. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION HOTLINE IS 1-800-955-5504. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING VERY BRIEF...LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... EAST WINDS OF 15 KNOTS TODAY...MAY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION BEGINNING TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM EDT. $$ RIZZO ** WTNT80 EGRR 191742 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.10.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 112.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.10.2005 11.9N 112.9W WEAK 00UTC 20.10.2005 12.3N 114.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.10.2005 12.3N 116.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2005 12.3N 116.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2005 12.3N 117.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2005 12.2N 118.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 82.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.10.2005 17.2N 82.8W INTENSE 00UTC 20.10.2005 17.8N 84.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2005 18.6N 85.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2005 19.6N 85.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2005 20.4N 86.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2005 21.4N 86.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2005 21.6N 86.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.10.2005 22.3N 86.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2005 23.8N 85.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2005 26.2N 82.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2005 29.6N 76.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2005 36.0N 69.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2005 45.7N 60.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 191742 ** WTNT34 KNHC 191754 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL MEXICO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES... 480 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS WOBBLING AROUND AN AVERAGE MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 900 MB...26.58 INCHES. AN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF WILMA SHORTLY TO PROVIDE A DIRECT MEASURE OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 83.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 900 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$