** WTCA44 TJSJ 190604 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT MIERCOLES 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA SE CONVIERTE EN UN HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO... UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CABO CATOCHE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. PERMANECE EN EFECTON UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOSS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.0 NORTE... LONGITUD 82.2 OESTE O COMO A 170 MILLAS... 270 KM...AL SUR SUROESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 400 MILLAS...640 KM...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 150 MPH...240 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO DE CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. WILMA PODRIA CONVIRTIENDOSE EN UN HURACAN CINCO DURANTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 155 MILLAS...250 KILOMETROS. NOAA BUOY 42057 RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO CERCA DE 60 MPH...96 KM/HR. LA MAS RECIENTE PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE ES DE 901 MB...26.61 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 25 PULGADAS EN LAS AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA HASTA EL VIERNES. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...SWAN ISLAND...Y JAMAICA HASTA EL JUEVES. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE TORMENTA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS AL NORTE HASTA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...17.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 150 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 901 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTIN20 DEMS 190610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 19-10-2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH, SOUTH AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AAA RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 19.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION AAA ====== OVER ** WTCA31 MHTG 190620Z *** MHTG SIGMET2 VALID 190600/191200 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA TC WILMA OBS AT 0600Z LAT 16.9N LONG 82.0W CB TPS FL500 CENTRE MVNG WNW 13KMH INTSF FCST 1200Z TC CENTRE 17.2N 83.1W. ** WTNT64 KNHC 190629 *** TCUAT4 HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TS 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 190600UTC 34N 144E MOVE ENE 20KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 130NM = ** WTKO20 RKSL 190600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME DEVELOPED LOW 0520 KIROGI ANALYSIS POSITION 190600UTC 33.5N 143.5E MOVEMENT NE 19KT PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT24 KNHC 190835 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0900Z WED OCT 19 2005 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 82.5W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 884 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 82.5W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 82.2W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 83.4W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.0N 85.7W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.5N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 33.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 82.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 190835 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED 884 MB...THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...THIS VALUE SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL CALIBRATED... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 365 MILES... 590 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 884 MB...26.10 INCHES. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE EVER RECORDED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS PRESSURE VALUE SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL IT IS FULLY CALIBRATED. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 884 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 190835 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.5N 84.7W 43 X X X 43 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 2 2 20.0N 85.5W 9 18 1 X 28 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 21.0N 85.7W X 20 2 2 24 KEY WEST FL X X 1 7 8 MWCG 193N 814W 8 2 1 2 13 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 5 5 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 FT MYERS FL X X X 4 4 MUCF 221N 805W X X 2 5 7 VENICE FL X X X 4 4 MUSN 216N 826W X 6 5 4 15 TAMPA FL X X X 3 3 MUHA 230N 824W X 1 4 7 12 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2 MUAN 219N 850W X 11 6 3 20 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2 MMCZ 205N 869W X 20 2 2 24 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 MZBZ 175N 883W 3 5 1 2 11 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 MGPB 157N 886W X X 1 2 3 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 MHNJ 165N 859W 12 X 1 1 14 GULF 29N 85W X X X 3 3 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X X X 3 3 MMMD 210N 897W X 3 7 5 15 GULF 28N 89W X X X 5 5 MARATHON FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 91W X X X 4 4 MIAMI FL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 190841 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE ...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB. UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELIED AN EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE. THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT. WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THAT IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS...TYPICAL OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MOST LIKELY...THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THEREAFTER...ONCE WILMA REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES AND HIGH SHEAR...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. IT SEEMS THAT DATA FROM THE HIGH ALTITUDE NOAA JET INGESTED BY MODELS CAUSED THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FOR THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS INDICATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TURN WILMA SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BUT IS KEPT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS IN CASE THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT RUN. IN SUMMARY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THIS CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THEN SHARPLY TURNS A WEAKER HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD FLORIDA WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS OR WATCHES IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.2N 82.5W 150 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 83.4W 150 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 145 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 85.7W 130 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W 115 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 24/0600Z 33.0N 72.0W 70 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 190847 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MIERCOLES 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA REPORTO 884 MILIBARES...LA PRESION MINIMA JAMAS REGISTRADA EN UN HURACAN EN LA CUENCA DEL ATLANTICO...ESTE VALOR DEBE USARSE CON CAUTELA HASTA TANTO SEA CALIBRADO... UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CABO CATOCHE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. PERMANECE EN EFECTON UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.2 NORTE... LONGITUD 82.5 OESTE O COMO A 170 MILLAS... 270 KM...AL SUR SUROESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 365 MILLAS...590 KM...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 175 MPH...300 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN CATASTROFICO DE CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON ANTICIPADOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KILOMETROS. UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA REGISTRO UNA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL DE 884 MB...26.10 PULGADAS. ESTA ES LA PRESION MAS BAJA JAMAS REGISTRADA EN UN HURACAN EN LA CUENCA DEL ATLANTICO. SIN EMBARGO ESTE VALOR DEBE USARSE CON CAUTELA HASTA TANTO SEA CALIBRADO SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 25 PULGADAS EN LAS AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA HASTA EL VIERNES. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...SWAN ISLAND...Y JAMAICA HASTA EL JUEVES. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE TORMENTA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS AL NORTE HASTA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...17.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 175 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 884 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTNT44 KNHC 190851 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...TO USE THE PROPER WORD...RELAYED... IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE ...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB. UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE. THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT. WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THAT IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS...TYPICAL OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MOST LIKELY...THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THEREAFTER...ONCE WILMA REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES AND HIGH SHEAR...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. IT SEEMS THAT DATA FROM THE HIGH ALTITUDE NOAA JET INGESTED BY MODELS CAUSED THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FOR THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS INDICATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TURN WILMA SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BUT IS KEPT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS IN CASE THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT RUN. IN SUMMARY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THIS CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THEN SHARPLY TURNS A WEAKER HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD FLORIDA WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS OR WATCHES IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.2N 82.5W 150 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 83.4W 150 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 145 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 85.7W 130 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W 115 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 24/0600Z 33.0N 72.0W 70 KT $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 191158 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...WILMA MAINTAINING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...RECORD PRESSURE CONFIRMED BY AIRCRAFT CREW... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES... 550 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES THIS INTENSE AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. BASED ON DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST RETURNING FROM ITS MISSION IN WILMA...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 882 MB...26.05 INCHES. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 882 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$