** WTSR20 WSSS 181800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA44 TJSJ 190007 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT MARTES 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA INTENSIFICANDOSE RAPIDAMENTE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. TAMBIEN PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EN MEXICO DESDE PUNTA ALLEN HASTA CABO CATOCHE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOSS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 81.8 OESTE O COMO A 185 MILLAS... 295 KM...AL SUR DE GRAND CAYMAN. MIENTRAS WILMA SE HA MOVIDO UN POCO HACIA EL OESTE EN LAS PASADAS HORAS...WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPORTES DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTO HACE DE WILMA UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. EL AVION REPORTA QUE LA PRESION ESTA BAJANDO RAPIDAMENTE...Y SE ESPERA QUE WILMA SEA UN HURACAN MAYOR MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS. LA BOYA 42057 DE NOAA AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 55 MPH...88 KM/HR...CON UNA RAFAGA DE 63 MPH...101 KM/HR. LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 954B...28.17 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...JAMAICA...HAITI...Y CUBA. ACUMULACIONES DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...16.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 954 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 190000 UTC 00HR 32.8N 142.0E 985HPA 27M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NE 30KM/H P+24HR 39.8N 150.0E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 190000 UTC 00HR 32.8N 142.0E 985HPA 27M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NE 30KM/H P+24HR 39.8N 150.0E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 190000 *** WARNING 190000. WARNING VALID 200000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0520 KIROGI (0520) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1000 HPA AT 32.6N 142.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 34.2N 144.4E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 36.3N 146.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1008 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0520 KIROGI (0520) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 190000UTC 32.6N 142.0E FAIR MOVE E 13KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 200000UTC 36.3N 146.7E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 190000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTER HAS SEPARATE D FROM LOW LEVEL CIRCURATION CENTER AND CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AREA. TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 6 HOURS.= ** WTCA31 MHTG 190121Z *** MHTG SIGMET 1 VALID 190030/190630 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA TC WILMA OBS AT 0000Z LAT 16.5N LONG 81.6 W CBS TOP FL500 CENTRE MOV WNW 6KT INTSF. FCST 0630Z TC CENTRE LAT 17.0 N LONG 82.0W. OTLK TC CENTRE 191230Z LAT 17.8N LONG 83.0W= ** WTPN31 PGTW 190300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 036 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 33.4N 142.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 142.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 35.7N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 34.0N 143.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH- EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS TS 21W HAS COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXI- MUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 14 FEET.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 190231 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 ...WILMA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES... 295 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 405 MILES... 650 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WILMA BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY BECOMING A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH... 81 KH/HR...WITH A GUST OF 58 MPH... 94 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 190232 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.1N 84.2W 43 X X X 43 MIAMI FL X X X 4 4 19.2N 85.0W 18 9 X 1 28 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 3 3 20.4N 85.5W 1 18 3 2 24 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 MWCG 193N 814W 8 2 2 2 14 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 KEY WEST FL X X X 8 8 MUCF 221N 805W X X 2 6 8 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 5 5 MUSN 216N 826W X 3 7 4 14 FT MYERS FL X X X 5 5 MUHA 230N 824W X X 4 7 11 VENICE FL X X X 4 4 MUAN 219N 850W X 4 10 5 19 TAMPA FL X X X 3 3 MMCZ 205N 869W X 14 6 2 22 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2 MZBZ 175N 883W 1 6 2 2 11 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2 MGPB 157N 886W X X 1 1 2 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 MHNJ 165N 859W 16 1 X X 17 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X X 3 3 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X X X 3 3 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W X X X 4 4 MMMD 210N 897W X 1 8 5 14 GULF 28N 91W X X X 3 3 MARATHON FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 190232 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0300Z WED OCT 19 2005 AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 82.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......135NE 90SE 90SW 135NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 82.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 81.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...135NE 90SE 90SW 135NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 82.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 190236 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT. SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION... WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LAST AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS THE 12 HR MOTION OF 285/7...ALTHOUGH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER. WILMA IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEAST OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGES SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. THE RIDGES SHOULD COLLAPSE COMPLETELY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER 72 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WILMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN NORTHWARD...THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACTLY WHERE WILMA WILL RECURVE BETWEEN THE LEFT-MOST GFDN AND RIGHT-MOST UKMET. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY AGREE ON HOW THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...AND THESE DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PARTS OF FLORIDA WILMA WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT. HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM. THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTS. SINCE THESE CYCLES ARE HARD TO TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HOLD AT 125 KT FROM 24-48 HR. WHEN WILMA MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE NOAA G4 JET FLEW ITS FIRST SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON WILMA THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE IMPACT ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 82.1W 95 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 110 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 125 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 190252 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MARTES 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA CONTINUA INTENSIFICANDOSE RAPIDAMENTE...DEBE CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN MAYOR EN LAS PROXIMAS HORAS... A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...QEL GOBIERN ODE MEXICO HA EXTENDIDO LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN HACIA EL SUR DE PUNTA GRUESA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CABO CATOCHE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. PERMANECE EN EFECTON UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOSS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.8 NORTE... LONGITUD 82.1 OESTE O COMO A 185 MILLAS... 295 KM...AL SUR SUROESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 405 MILLAS...650 KM...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 110 MPH...175 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA UN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...WILMA CONVIRTIENDOSE EN UN HURACAN MAYOR MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE Y CONVIRTIENDOSE POSIBLEMENTE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO MAS TARDE EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 155 MILLAS...250 KILOMETROS. LA BOYA 42057 DE NOAA AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 50 MPH...81 KM/HR...CON UNA RAFAGA DE 58 MPH...94 KM/HR. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 945 MB...27.91 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 25 PULGADAS EN LAS AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA EL VIERNES. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...SWAN ISLAND...Y JAMAICA HASTA EL JUEVES. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE TORMENTA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS AL NORTE HASTA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...16.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 110 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 945 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 190300UTC 32.9N 143.1E FAIR MOVE ENE 18KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 200300UTC 37.5N 148.1E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT24 KNHC 190502 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0500Z WED OCT 19 2005 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 82.0W AT 19/0500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 901 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......135NE 90SE 90SW 135NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 82.0W AT 19/0500Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 81.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...135NE 90SE 90SW 135NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 82.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 190502 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS 150 MPH WINDS IN WILMA... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 405 MILES...655 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 901 MB...26.61 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...16.9 N... 82.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 901 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 190506 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF WILMA. AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 162 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 901 MB IN A PINHOLE EYE. WILMA IS NOW A VERY STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE TODAY. NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS NECESSARY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0500Z 16.9N 82.0W 130 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 135 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 135 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 190506 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.1N 84.2W 43 X X X 43 MIAMI FL X X X 4 4 19.2N 85.0W 17 9 1 X 27 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 3 3 20.4N 85.5W 1 18 3 1 23 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 MWCG 193N 814W 8 2 2 2 14 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 KEY WEST FL X X 1 7 8 MUCF 221N 805W X X 2 6 8 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 5 5 MUSN 216N 826W X 4 6 4 14 FT MYERS FL X X X 5 5 MUHA 230N 824W X X 4 8 12 VENICE FL X X X 5 5 MUAN 219N 850W X 6 8 5 19 TAMPA FL X X X 3 3 MMCZ 205N 869W X 14 5 2 21 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2 MZBZ 175N 883W 1 7 2 2 12 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2 MGPB 157N 886W X 1 X 2 3 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 MHNJ 165N 859W 16 1 X 1 18 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X X 3 3 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X X X 3 3 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W X X X 5 5 MMMD 210N 897W X 1 8 5 14 GULF 28N 91W X X X 3 3 MARATHON FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 190523 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM EDT MIERCOLES 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA ENCUENTRA VIENTOS DE 150 MPH EN WILMA... UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CABO CATOCHE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. PERMANECE EN EFECTON UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EN CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOSS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 1 AM EDT...0500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.9 NORTE... LONGITUD 82.0 OESTE O COMO A 175 MILLAS... 280 KM...AL SUR SUROESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 405 MILLAS...655 KM...AL SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA REGISTRO VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS CERCA DE 150 MPH...240 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSOS DE CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. WILMA PODRIA CONVIRTIENDOSE EN UN HURACAN CINCO DURANTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 155 MILLAS...250 KILOMETROS. LA MAS RECIENTE PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE ES DE 901 MB...26.61 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 25 PULGADAS EN LAS AREAS MONTANOSAS DE CUBA HASTA EL VIERNES. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...SWAN ISLAND...Y JAMAICA HASTA EL JUEVES. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE TORMENTA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS AL NORTE HASTA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1 AM EDT...16.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 150 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 901 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTNT80 EGRR 190539 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.10.2005 EX-TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 111.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.10.2005 11.4N 111.1W WEAK 12UTC 19.10.2005 11.4N 113.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 11.7N 114.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2005 11.4N 115.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.10.2005 11.2N 116.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2005 10.5N 118.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2005 11.1N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2005 11.0N 118.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2005 10.5N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2005 10.4N 118.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2005 9.6N 119.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.10.2005 8.9N 120.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2005 10.5N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 81.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.10.2005 17.0N 81.8W INTENSE 12UTC 19.10.2005 17.1N 83.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 17.6N 84.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.10.2005 18.2N 85.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2005 19.3N 86.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2005 19.8N 87.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2005 20.7N 88.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2005 20.9N 88.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.10.2005 21.6N 88.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2005 22.3N 88.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2005 23.6N 86.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.10.2005 24.7N 82.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2005 27.9N 78.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 190539 ** WTNT34 KNHC 190552 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...WILMA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 400 MILES...640 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO NEAR 60 MPH...96 KM/HR. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 901 MB...26.61 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...901 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$