** WTCA44 TJSJ 181833 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 12A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT MARTES 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO SE DIRIGE HACIA WILMA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SE PRONOSTICA QUE WILMA SE CONVERTIRA EN UN HURACAN MAYOR EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN EL OESTE DE CUBA....LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN...LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 81.1 OESTE O COMO A 180 MILLAS... 290 KM...AL SUR DE GRAND CAYMAN. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...12 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE O NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE WILMA SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN MAYOR DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 120 MILLAS...195 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 975 MB...28.79 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...JAMAICA...HAITI...Y EL SURESTE DE CUBA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES DE 2 A 3 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...16.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 975 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKILN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 181800 UTC 00HR 32.5N 140.4E 960HPA 35M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NE 30KM/H P+24HR 37.6N 148.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 43.0N 159.6E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 181800 *** WARNING 181800. WARNING VALID 191800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0520 KIROGI (0520) 985 HPA AT 32.4N 140.1E SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 25 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 33.7N 142.9E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 35.6N 145.5E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 40.5N 153.5E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 181800UTC 32.4N 140.1E FAIR MOVE ENE 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 25NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 191800UTC 35.6N 145.5E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 16KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 201800UTC 40.5N 153.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 181800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.19 FOR STS 0520 KIROGI (0520) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(TYPHOON MODEL) ON STS 0520 KIROGI (0520) AT 12 UTC IS VALID TILL 60 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 182100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 035 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 21W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 32.7N 140.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.7N 140.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 35.4N 144.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 39.2N 149.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 33.4N 141.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPLETE BREAKDOWN IN CORE CONVECTION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.// ** WTNT24 KNHC 182031 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 2100Z TUE OCT 18 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 81.5W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 75SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 81.5W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 81.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.3N 82.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.2N 83.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.2N 85.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.5N 85.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.0N 82.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 30.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 81.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 182032 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR CUBA AND MEXICO... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM... SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND CUBA. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 182033 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.2N 83.5W 46 X X X 46 FT MYERS FL X X X 5 5 19.1N 84.5W 29 3 1 X 33 VENICE FL X X X 5 5 20.2N 85.2W 8 18 1 1 28 TAMPA FL X X X 4 4 MWCG 193N 814W 22 X X 1 23 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2 MUCF 221N 805W X 1 2 6 9 ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2 MUSN 216N 826W 3 10 3 3 19 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 3 3 MUHA 230N 824W X 3 6 6 15 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 3 3 MUAN 219N 850W X 15 7 2 24 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 MMCZ 205N 869W X 13 6 3 22 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 MZBZ 175N 883W X 2 2 3 7 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 MHNJ 165N 859W 6 4 1 2 13 BURAS LA X X X 4 4 MMMD 210N 897W X X 3 6 9 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 MARATHON FL X X 1 6 7 GULF 29N 85W X X X 5 5 MIAMI FL X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X X X 6 6 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W X X X 7 7 KEY WEST FL X X 2 8 10 GULF 28N 91W X X X 4 4 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 6 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 182042 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST MADE ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF WILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SO FAR...OF 75 KT. A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTH EYEWALL REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 64 KT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE THINKING REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WILMA CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX. WILMA COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BEFORE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF...WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/7. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...AND AS IT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. ONCE WILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED. ONLY VERY MODEST SHIFTS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...WHICH...AT THIS TIME...IS FOCUSING THE LONG-TERM THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.7N 81.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 82.3W 90 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.2N 83.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W 110 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 20.2N 85.2W 115 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 22.5N 85.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 25.0N 82.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 30.5N 75.5W 70 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 182050 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MARTES 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...VIGILANCIAS DE HURACAN EMITIDAS PARA CUBA Y MEXICO... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS HASTA PINAR DEL RIO...Y PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. UNA VIGILANCIA SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE PUNTA ALLEN HASTA CABO CATOCHE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LOSS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 81.5 OESTE O COMO A 180 MILLAS... 290 KM...AL SUR DE GRAND CAYMAN. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE WILMA SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN MAYOR DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS. LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 970 MB...28.64 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...JAMAICA...HAITI...Y CUBA. ACUMULACIONES DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...16.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 970 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKILN $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 182100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 182100UTC 32.3N 140.8E FAIR MOVE E 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 192100UTC 36.0N 146.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 16KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 201800UTC 40.5N 153.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 182100 *** WARNING 182100. WARNING VALID 192100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0520 KIROGI (0520) 990 HPA AT 32.3N 140.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 33.8N 143.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 36.0N 146.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT34 KNHC 182341 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 ...WILMA UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES... 295 KM... SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN. WHILE THE CENTER HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WILMA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING RAPIDLY... AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH... 88 KM/HR...WITH A GUST OF 63 MPH... 101 KM/HR. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND CUBA. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 81.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$