** WTSR20 WSSS 180600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 181200 UTC 00HR 32.1N 139.2E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NE 30KM/H P+24HR 36.7N 146.4E 975HPA 30M/S P+48HR 42.5N 159.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 181200 *** WARNING 181200. WARNING VALID 191200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 960 HPA AT 32.0N 139.0E SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 34.0N 141.4E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 36.4N 144.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 41.2N 153.0E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 181200UTC 32.0N 139.0E FAIR MOVE NE 13KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 191200UTC 36.4N 144.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 16KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 201200UTC 41.2N 153.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PGTW 181500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 034 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 31.9N 139.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 31.9N 139.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 33.8N 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 36.2N 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 38.9N 151.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 32.4N 140.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MERGES WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MARKED REDUCTION IN DEEP CONVECTION AND A COMPLETE DISSIPA- TION OF THE EYE FEATURE AS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM ERODES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.// ** WTNT24 KNHC 181438 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 1500Z TUE OCT 18 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 80.6W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......105NE 75SE 50SW 105NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 50SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 80.6W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 80.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 81.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.7N 82.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.6N 84.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 80.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 181440 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 ...WILMA BECOMES THE 12TH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON AS IT HEADS NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER TODAY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 320 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 80.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 181440 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.7N 82.3W 53 X X X 53 MIAMI FL X X X 2 2 18.5N 83.5W 30 6 X X 36 KEY WEST FL X X 2 6 8 19.6N 84.5W 3 24 2 1 30 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 5 5 MWCG 193N 814W 26 1 X X 27 FT MYERS FL X X X 5 5 MUCF 221N 805W X 1 3 3 7 VENICE FL X X X 5 5 MUSN 216N 826W X 11 5 3 19 TAMPA FL X X X 3 3 MUHA 230N 824W X 2 6 6 14 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2 MUAN 219N 850W X 6 13 5 24 ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2 MMCZ 205N 869W X 3 12 6 21 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 3 3 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 3 6 9 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 3 3 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2 MHNJ 165N 859W 1 7 4 2 14 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 MNPC 141N 834W X 1 X 2 3 GULF 29N 85W X X X 4 4 MMMD 210N 897W X X 1 8 9 GULF 29N 87W X X X 4 4 MARATHON FL X X 1 5 6 GULF 28N 89W X X X 4 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 181454 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 WILMA IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T4.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS OF T4.5 SINCE 09Z. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. COLD CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE CENTER...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT THE LARGE AND GROWING CIRCULATION OF WILMA SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP MUCH OF THIS AIR FROM REACHING THE CORE. A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF IT TO WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/5. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...AND AS IT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. ONCE WILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WILMA...THE 12TH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...TIES THE RECORD FOR MOST HURRICANES IN A SEASON SET IN 1969. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 16.5N 80.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 17.0N 81.2W 75 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.7N 82.3W 90 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 83.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.6N 84.5W 105 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 22.0N 85.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W 75 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 181527 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MARTES 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA SE CONVIERTE EN 12MO HURACAN DE LA TEMPORADA MIENTRAS SE DIRIGE HACIA EL NOROESTE...SE ESPERA QUE SE INTENSIFIQUE AUN MAS HOY... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SE PRONOSTICA QUE WILMA SE CONVERTIRA EN HURACAN MAYOR EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN EL OESTE DE CUBA....LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN...LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE WILMA. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.5 NORTE... LONGITUD 80.6 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS...320 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA FRONTERA ENTRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. WILMA ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE WILMA SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN MAYOR DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 120 MILLAS ...195 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 977 MB...28.85 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...JAMAICA...HAITI...Y EL SURESTE DE CUBA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES DE 2 A 3 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...16.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 977 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKILN $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 181500UTC 32.4N 139.6E FAIR MOVE ENE 15KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 191500UTC 36.5N 144.7E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 201200UTC 41.2N 153.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 181500 *** WARNING 181500. WARNING VALID 191500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 975 HPA AT 32.4N 139.6E SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 34.3N 141.9E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 36.5N 144.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT80 EGRR 181713 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 11.9N 108.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.10.2005 11.9N 108.9W WEAK 00UTC 19.10.2005 11.2N 111.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2005 10.7N 111.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 10.4N 113.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.10.2005 10.0N 116.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2005 10.4N 118.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2005 11.0N 118.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2005 11.4N 119.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2005 11.2N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 80.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.10.2005 16.2N 80.3W MODERATE 00UTC 19.10.2005 17.0N 81.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2005 17.7N 82.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 18.5N 82.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2005 19.4N 83.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.10.2005 21.1N 84.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2005 22.3N 84.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2005 23.2N 83.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2005 23.9N 82.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.10.2005 25.5N 80.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2005 27.8N 75.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2005 31.2N 72.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.10.2005 34.7N 67.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181713 ** WTNT34 KNHC 181755 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO WILMA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM... SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...12 KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 81.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$