** WTNT80 EGRR 180520 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.10.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 107.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.10.2005 12.1N 107.3W WEAK 12UTC 18.10.2005 11.8N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2005 11.7N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2005 11.3N 112.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2005 11.2N 113.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2005 11.4N 115.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2005 11.0N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2005 11.5N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2005 12.6N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2005 12.9N 119.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2005 12.7N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 80.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.10.2005 15.7N 80.0W MODERATE 12UTC 18.10.2005 15.9N 80.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2005 16.7N 81.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2005 17.7N 82.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 18.2N 83.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.10.2005 19.3N 85.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.10.2005 20.3N 85.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2005 21.2N 85.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2005 21.9N 85.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2005 22.6N 84.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2005 23.9N 82.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2005 26.7N 77.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2005 33.0N 70.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180520 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 180600 UTC 00HR 31.0N 137.8E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NE 25KM/H P+24HR 35.5N 144.8E 975HPA 30M/S P+48HR 41.5N 156.7E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 180600 *** WARNING 180600. WARNING VALID 190600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 955 HPA AT 31.0N 137.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 32.3N 139.7E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 34.0N 141.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 38.2N 146.9E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 40.7N 155.4E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 180600UTC 31.0N 137.9E GOOD MOVE NE 14KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 190600UTC 34.0N 141.7E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 200600UTC 38.2N 146.9E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 210600UTC 40.7N 155.4E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 180600 UTC 00HR 31.0N 137.8E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NE 25KM/H P+24HR 35.5N 144.8E 975HPA 30M/S P+48HR 41.5N 156.7E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 180600 *** WARNING 180600. WARNING VALID 190600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 955 HPA AT 31.0N 137.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 32.3N 139.7E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 34.0N 141.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 38.2N 146.9E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 40.7N 155.4E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 180600UTC 31.0N 137.9E GOOD MOVE NE 14KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 190600UTC 34.0N 141.7E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 200600UTC 38.2N 146.9E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 210600UTC 40.7N 155.4E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL (GLOBAL MODEL) ON TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) AT 00 UTC IS VALID TILL 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 180900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 033 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 30.9N 137.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.9N 137.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 32.7N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 35.2N 143.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 38.0N 148.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 40.5N 153.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 31.4N 138.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 180842 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 ...WILMA ALMOST A HURRICANE...EXPECTED TO BE ONE SOON... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES ...420 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 220 MILES... 350 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA /HONDURAS BORDER. WILMA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...15.7 N... 80.0 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 180842 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 THERE ARE SEVERAL INDICATORS SUGGESTING THAT WILMA IS STRENGTHENING. THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 982 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING FEATURES...AND THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT WILMA IS A HURRICANE. IN ADDITION...TWO MICROWAVE PASSAGES FROM DIFFERENT SATELLITES SHOW AN EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER...WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 60 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS OF LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM OCEAN...STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS MODELS. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBEAN SEA...TYPICAL OF THOSE HURRICANES WHICH COMMONLY OCCURRED IN OCTOBER DURING THE 30'S 40'S AND 50'S. THIS IS NOTHING NEW. WILMA HAS BARELY MOVED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE MODELS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE ANTICYLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... THIS FEATURE IS STILL THERE AND STRONG...BLOCKING THE MOTION OF WILMA. IT IS STILL FRESH IN MY MEMORY THAT...IN 1998 WITH A SIMILAR STEERING PATTERN...ALL MODELS MOVED HURRICANE MITCH NORTHWARD AND THE HURRICANE INDEED MOVED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE IMPROVED A LOT SINCE THEN AND THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE ANTICYCLONE IN THE GULF IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE TROUGH SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES...AND THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION OF WILMA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...TOWARD THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THEREAFTER... WILMA WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERLIES AND RECURVATURE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH SHOWS A HURRICANE MOVING EITHER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OR WESTERN CUBA AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENISULA BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5. REMEMBER...THERE IS A LARGE VARIABILITY AND LARGE ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS. SO AT THIS TIME STAY TUNE AND MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.7N 80.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.8N 80.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.6N 81.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 17.3N 82.4W 90 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 18.6N 84.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 21.1N 85.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 84.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 80.0W 80 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 180842 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0900Z TUE OCT 18 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 80.0W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 80.0W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 80.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.8N 80.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.6N 81.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 105SE 105SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.3N 82.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 105SE 105SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.6N 84.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.1N 85.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.5N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 80.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 180842 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 16.6N 81.4W 45 X X X 45 MHNJ 165N 859W X 4 7 2 13 17.3N 82.4W 28 3 X X 31 MNPC 141N 834W 3 2 2 1 8 18.6N 84.0W 1 18 8 1 28 MMMD 210N 897W X X 1 8 9 MKJS 185N 779W 1 1 1 2 5 MARATHON FL X X X 5 5 MWCG 193N 814W 8 11 3 1 23 MIAMI FL X X X 2 2 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 3 3 KEY WEST FL X X X 7 7 MUCF 221N 805W X 1 3 6 10 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 3 3 MUSN 216N 826W X 2 11 6 19 FT MYERS FL X X X 3 3 MUHA 230N 824W X X 4 9 13 VENICE FL X X X 2 2 MUAN 219N 850W X X 12 8 20 GULF 29N 87W X X X 2 2 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 11 7 18 GULF 28N 89W X X X 3 3 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 2 5 7 GULF 28N 91W X X X 2 2 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 180859 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MARTES 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA CASI HURACAN...SE ANTICIPA QUE SER CONVERTIRA EN HURACAN PRONTO... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA SE TORNARA EN HURACAN INTENSO EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. POR LO TANTOLOS INTERESES EN EL OESTE DE CUBA....LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN...EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTA POTENCIALMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE ESTAR ALERTAS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 80.0 OESTE O COMO A 260 MILLAS...420 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 220 MILLAS...350 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA FRONTERA ENTRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. WILMA HA ESTADO CASI ESTACIONARIO Y ESPERA MUY POCO MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. LUEGO UN MOVIMIENTO GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE ES ANTICIPADO SEGUIDO POR UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CORRIENTES DE ARRASTRE PERMANECEN DEBILES Y ES POSIBLE UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SE ESTIMAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA SE CONVIERTA EN HURACAN HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS ...110 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA HACE UN PAR DE HORAS ERA DE 982 MB...29.00 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...JAMAICA...HAITI...Y EL SURESTE DE CUBA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES DE 2 A 3 PULGADAS...CON AREAS AISLADAS DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...15.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...982 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SERUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTJP31 RJTD 180900 *** WARNING 180900. WARNING VALID 190900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 955 HPA AT 31.4N 138.3E SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 32.9N 140.1E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 34.9N 142.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 180900UTC 31.4N 138.3E GOOD MOVE NE 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 190900UTC 34.9N 142.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 200600UTC 38.2N 146.9E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 210600UTC 40.7N 155.4E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT34 KNHC 181151 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 ...WILMA BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES ...400 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 210 MILES... 335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA /HONDURAS BORDER. WILMA HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND A SLOW MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY. REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42057 INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA ARE EXPANDING...AND NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES ...200 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...15.9 N... 80.2 W. MOVEMENT ...DRIFTING NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$