** WTCA44 TJSJ 180006 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT LUNES 17 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA CASI ESTACIONARIA PERO SE ESPERA QUE SE DIRIJA AL OESTE... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE ESTAR ALERTAS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 79.9 OESTE O COMO A 265 MILLAS...425 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 225 MILLAS...360 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA FRONTERA ENTRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. WILMA SE HA TORNADO CASI ESTACIONARIA...PERO SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO AL OESTE MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL MARTES. LAS CORRIENTES DE ARRASTRE PERMANECEN DEBILES Y ES POSIBLE UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SE ESTIMAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y WILMA PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MANANA MARTES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS ...110 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 989 MB...29.20 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...JAMAICA...HAITI...Y EL SURESTE DE CUBA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES DE 2 A 3 PULGADAS...CON AREAS AISLADAS DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...15.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...CASI ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...989 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 180000 UTC 00HR 30.0N 136.7E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NE 20KM/H P+24HR 33.8N 141.7E 970HPA 33M/S P+48HR 39.2N 150.7E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 45.4N 163.0E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 180000 *** WARNING 180000. WARNING VALID 190000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 955 HPA AT 30.0N 136.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 32.7N 140.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 36.8N 144.4E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 41.0N 151.8E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 180000UTC 30.0N 136.7E GOOD MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 190000UTC 32.7N 140.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 200000UTC 36.8N 144.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 210000UTC 41.0N 151.8E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUA LLY TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 180300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 032 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 30.0N 136.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.0N 136.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 31.5N 138.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 34.5N 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 37.7N 147.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 30 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 40.8N 154.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 30.4N 137.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.// ** WTPZ21 KNHC 180237 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 0300Z TUE OCT 18 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 108.0W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 108.0W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 107.5W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.1N 109.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.0N 111.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.0N 112.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.0N 114.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.0N 118.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 108.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 180244 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 ...WILMA STEADILY STRENGTHENING AND BEGINNING TO DRIFT WESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES... 405 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 205 MILES... 335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...15.8 N... 80.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 180244 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0300Z TUE OCT 18 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 80.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 80.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 79.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.8N 80.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.6N 81.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 105SE 105SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 82.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 105SE 105SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N 83.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 82.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 80.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 180245 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 16.6N 81.7W 50 X X X 50 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 2 5 7 17.3N 82.8W 30 3 X 1 34 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 2 2 18.2N 83.7W 7 20 1 1 29 MHNJ 165N 859W X 6 5 3 14 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 2 2 MNPC 141N 834W 4 4 1 2 11 MKJS 185N 779W X X 1 3 4 SKSP 126N 817W X X 1 1 2 MWCG 193N 814W 10 9 1 2 22 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 9 9 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 3 3 MARATHON FL X X X 4 4 MUCF 221N 805W X 1 2 6 9 KEY WEST FL X X X 6 6 MUSN 216N 826W X 4 8 6 18 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 2 2 MUHA 230N 824W X X 4 9 13 FT MYERS FL X X X 2 2 MUAN 219N 850W X 1 11 8 20 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 9 9 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 180249 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT LUNES 17 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA FORTALECIENDOSE ESTABLEMENTE Y COMENZANDO A MOVERSE AL OESTE... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE ESTAR ALERTAS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.8 NORTE... LONGITUD 80.2 OESTE O COMO A 250 MILLAS...405 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 205 MILLAS...335 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA FRONTERA ENTRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. WILMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO A CERCA DE 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LA NOCHE SEGUIDO POR UN GIRO GRADUAL AL OESTE NOROESTE EL MARTES.SIN EMBARGO...LAS CORRIENTES DE ARRASTRE PERMANECEN DEBILES Y ES POSIBLE UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SE ESTIMAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y WILMA PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MANANA MARTES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS ...110 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MB...29.15 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...JAMAICA...HAITI...Y EL SURESTE DE CUBA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES DE 2 A 3 PULGADAS...CON AREAS AISLADAS DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...15.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...AL OESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...987 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTNT44 KNHC 180300 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 THE LAST RECON FIX AT 2130Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 989 MB... AND THE ONBOARD RADAR REVEALED A DEVELOPING SMALL RAGGED EYE FEATURE. A SERIES OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES BY SSMI AND SSMIS DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS ALSO INDICATES AT LEAST A MID-LEVEL EYE-LIKE FEATURE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING THIS EVENING OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION... BUT WITHOUT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORM IS INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY. A DISJOINTED AND BROAD BAND OF COLD CLOUD TOPS REMAINS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE... BUT THERE IS NO DATA TO INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING THAT FAR FROM THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z HAVE COME UP A BIT TO 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. GIVEN THESE ESTIMATES AND THE STRUCTURE DEPICTED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. THIS REMAINS AT THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED LAG BETWEEN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND SURFACE WINDS INDICATED BY THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO WILMA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO HELP GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY. WILMA STOPPED LOSING LATITUDE EARLIER THIS EVENING WHEN IT PULLED UP NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT HAS BEGUN A WESTWARD DRIFT... AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 270/2. OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT SAME DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY PERIOD. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT WILMA WILL RECURVE AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE... HOWEVER... THE MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON HOW SHARPLY WILMA WILL TURN AND HOW FAST IT WILL MOVE AFTER RECURVATURE. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW MUCH FASTER AFTER RECURVATURE... BUT THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED PART OF THE WAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING WHILE WILMA REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AND IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THEREAFTER... INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION AND BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING... BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WEAKEN WILMA BENEATH HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE FIVE-DAY TIME FRAME. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.8N 80.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 80.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 81.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 82.8W 85 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 83.7W 95 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 85.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 85.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 82.5W 85 KT $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 180301 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON OCT 17 2005 THE DEPRESSION HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS... AND IT HAS DEGENERATED INTO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON SIXTEEN-E UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9. A LOW- TO MID- LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS SHALLOW MEAN BAM AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMANT LOW...SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 12.1N 108.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 18/1200Z 12.1N 109.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 19/0000Z 12.0N 111.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 19/1200Z 12.0N 112.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 20/0000Z 12.0N 114.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 21/0000Z 12.0N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 180400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 12.1N 107.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 107.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 12.1N 109.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 12.0N 111.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 12.0N 112.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 12.0N 114.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 12.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND 190400Z. // ** WTPN31 PHNC 180400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 12.1N 107.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 107.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 12.1N 109.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 12.0N 111.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 12.0N 112.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 12.0N 114.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 12.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 10 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND 190400Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 180300 *** WARNING 180300. WARNING VALID 190300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 955 HPA AT 30.5N 137.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 31.8N 139.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 33.3N 140.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 180300UTC 30.5N 137.3E GOOD MOVE NE 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 190300UTC 33.3N 140.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 200000UTC 36.8N 144.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 210000UTC 41.0N 151.8E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTIN20 DEMS 180537 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 18-10-2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AAA RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 19.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION AA A ====== OVER ** WTNT34 KNHC 180545 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 ...WILMA BARELY MOVING... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES... 420 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. WILMA HAS BARELY MOVED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM FROM THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...15.7 N... 80.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 180556 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT MARTES 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA APENAS SE MUEVE... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE ESTAR ALERTAS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 80.0 OESTE O COMO A 260 MILLAS...420 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 215 MILLAS...345 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA FRONTERA ENTRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. WILMA APENAS SE HA MOVIDO DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS PERO UN MOVIMIENTO GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE ES ANTICIPADO HOYU SEGUIDO POR UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CORRIENTES DE ARRASTRE PERMANECEN DEBILES Y ES POSIBLE UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SE ESTIMAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y WILMA PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE DURANTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS ...110 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 984 MB...29.06 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...JAMAICA...HAITI...Y EL SURESTE DE CUBA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES DE 2 A 3 PULGADAS...CON AREAS AISLADAS DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...15.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...AL OESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...984 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR