** WTCA44 TJSJ 171804 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 8A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT LUNES 17 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE A MEDIA QUE GANA INTENSIDAD... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE EL BORDE ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE ESTAR ALERTAS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.1 NORTE... LONGITUD 80.0 OESTE O COMO A 235 MILLAS...380 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 225 MILLAS...365 KILOMETROS...ESTE NORESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN EL BORDE ENTRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. WILMA SE HA MOVIDO LENTAMENTE AL SUR DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS...PERO UN GIRO GRADUAL AL OESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS PERMANECEN DEBILES Y ES POSIBLE UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SE ESTIMAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...80 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y WILMA PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS ...110 KILOMETROS... MAYORMENTE AL SUR DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MB...29.44 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y JAMAICA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES DE 2 A 3 PULGADAS...CON AREAS AISLADAS DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...16.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.0 OESTE MOVIMIENTO...LENTAMENTE AL SUR. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...997 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTJP21 RJTD 171800 *** WARNING 171800. WARNING VALID 181800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 955 HPA AT 29.2N 136.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 31.7N 139.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 35.2N 144.1E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 39.1N 150.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 171800UTC 29.2N 136.1E GOOD MOVE NE 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 181800UTC 31.7N 139.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 191800UTC 35.2N 144.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 201800UTC 39.1N 150.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 171800 UTC 00HR 29.3N 136.1E 955HPA 45M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NE 20KM/H P+24HR 33.0N 139.6E 965HPA 35M/S P+48HR 36.6N 145.6E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 43.0N 154.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 172100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 031 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 29.2N 136.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 136.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 30.9N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 33.0N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 35.8N 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 39.1N 150.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 30 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 46.2N 163.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 136.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.// ** WTPZ21 KNHC 172023 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 2100Z MON OCT 17 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 107.0W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 107.0W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.2N 108.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.2N 110.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.1N 111.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.0N 113.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.0N 117.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 12.0N 121.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 107.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 172023 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON OCT 17 2005 AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS...FROM AROUND 1330Z...SUGGESTED THAT THE DEPRESSION WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SHOWN IN THIS MORNING'S ADVISORY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEARTH OF DEEP CONVECTION IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN TODAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS MAINLY OF A SMALL...BUT WELL-DEFINED...LOW CLOUD SWIRL...WITH LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IMPLIES THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A RATHER STABLE AIR MASS WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID- TROPOSPHERE. THIS...ALONG WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION...ARGUES AGAINST RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR/OVER THE CENTER... ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED QUITE SOON. INITIAL MOTION...270/8...IS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYLONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 DAYS. THIS REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD A STEERING FLOW THAT WILL CARRY THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT...MAINLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE THE PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY A SHADE FASTER. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 12.2N 107.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 12.2N 108.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 12.2N 110.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 12.1N 111.8W 25 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 12.0N 113.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 20/1800Z 12.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 21/1800Z 12.0N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 172041 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 2100Z MON OCT 17 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 79.9W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 79.9W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 79.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.9N 80.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.3N 81.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.9N 82.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 84.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 85.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 79.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 172041 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST ARRIVED IN THE CENTER OF WILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 989 MB...AND PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. WHILE THIS MINIMUM PRESSURE OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY... ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES ARE UNUSUALLY LOW...FLATTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THOUGH THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED WITH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM...BANDING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND NEW CONVECTION IS GOING OFF DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. WILMA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...ONE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS MAKING WILMA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ONCE WILMA GETS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE HOSTILE AS SHEAR INCREASES...AND SOME WEAKENING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED AT THAT TIME. WILMA CONTINUES TO DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD...OR 190/2. CERTAINLY THERE HAS BEEN MORE SOUTHWARD MOTION THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH THIS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY OBSERVED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC THIS AFTERNOON...AND I AM EXPECTING WILMA TO SOON BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN BETTER ACCORD WITH THE GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LARGE LOW OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVES EASTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW WILMA TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. FOR REASONS UNKNOWN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD BY ABOUT 200 MILES AND NO LONGER DRIVE WILMA INTO BELIZE. THE GFS AND GFDL...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...RESULTING IN A RATHER NARROW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE RATHER CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. CONSEQUENTLY...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT THAT BY THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BE ENCOUNTERING WESTERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT SHOULD FORCE A FAIRLY SHARP RIGHT TURN. HOW SHARP A TURN WILMA TAKES IS OBVIOUSLY OF INTEREST TO ALL ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO IDENTIFY SPECIFIC AREAS AT GREATEST RISK. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.8N 79.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.9N 80.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.3N 81.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 16.9N 82.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 84.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 85.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 86.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 23.5N 85.0W 90 KT $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 172043 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 16.3N 81.8W 49 X X X 49 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 10 9 19 16.9N 82.8W 31 2 X 1 34 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 3 8 11 17.7N 84.0W 7 16 3 1 27 MGPB 157N 886W X X 1 3 4 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 2 2 MHNJ 165N 859W X 5 8 3 16 MKJS 185N 779W X X 1 4 5 MNPC 141N 834W 4 5 2 1 12 MWCG 193N 814W 9 6 2 3 20 SKSP 126N 817W X 1 1 1 3 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 3 3 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 3 3 MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 7 8 MMMD 210N 897W X X 1 11 12 MUSN 216N 826W X 2 6 7 15 MARATHON FL X X X 2 2 MUHA 230N 824W X X 2 7 9 KEY WEST FL X X X 3 3 MUAN 219N 850W X 1 7 9 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 172048 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 ...WILMA POISED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES... 415 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 225 MILES... 365 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. WILMA HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...15.8 N... 79.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...DRIFTING SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 172200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 12.2N 106.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 106.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 12.2N 108.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.1N 111.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.0N 113.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 12.0N 113.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 12.0N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 12.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z. // ** WTCA44 TJSJ 172103 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT LUNES 17 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA ESTA ESTABLE PARA LUEGO FORTALECERSE... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE ESTAR ALERTAS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.8 NORTE... LONGITUD 79.9 OESTE O COMO A 255 MILLAS...415 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 225 MILLAS...365 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA FRONTERA ENTRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. WILMA SE HA MOVIDO LENTAMENTE AL SUR DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS...PERO SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL AL OESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LAS CORRIENTES DE ARRASTRE PERMANECEN DEBILES Y ES POSIBLE UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SE ESTIMAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...80 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y WILMA PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS ...110 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL MEDIDA POR UN AVION DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 989 MB...29.20 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE WILMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...JAMAICA...HAITI...EL SURESTE DE CUBA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES DE 2 A 3 PULGADAS...CON AREAS AISLADAS DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...15.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...AL SUR. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...989 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTJP31 RJTD 172100 *** WARNING 172100. WARNING VALID 182100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 955 HPA AT 29.7N 136.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 32.0N 139.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 172100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 172100UTC 29.7N 136.6E GOOD MOVE NE 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 182100UTC 32.0N 139.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 191800UTC 35.2N 144.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 201800UTC 39.1N 150.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTNT34 KNHC 172359 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 ...WILMA NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES... 425 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 225 MILES... 360 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. WILMA HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...15.7 N... 79.9 W. MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$