** WTSR20 WSSS 170600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 171200 *** WARNING 171200. WARNING VALID 181200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 955 HPA AT 28.5N 135.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 30.8N 138.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 32.7N 140.8E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 34.9N 143.9E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 171200UTC 28.5N 135.5E GOOD MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 181200UTC 30.8N 138.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 191200UTC 32.7N 140.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 201200UTC 34.9N 143.9E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 171200 UTC 00HR 28.5N 135.4E 955HPA 45M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 32.1N 138.2E 965HPA 35M/S P+48HR 35.9N 143.1E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 40.0N 149.6E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 171200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TY 0520 KIROGI ANALYSIS POSITION 171200UTC 28.6N 135.4E MOVEMENT NNE 11KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 181200UTC 31.6N 137.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 191200UTC 34.9N 142.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 72HR POSITION 201200UTC 39.7N 148.6E WITHIN 0NM PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 171500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 28.6N 135.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 135.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 30.4N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 32.3N 138.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 34.6N 141.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 37.0N 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 43.3N 154.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 34 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 49.5N 172.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 135.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 171426 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005 SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE DEPRESSION. WHAT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 1.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA...HENCE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NEIGHBORING ITCZ IS REMARKABLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH INDICATES A LARGE-SCALE STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...SMALL CIRCULATION SIZE...AND DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...SHOULD MITIGATE AGAINST REGENERATION. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 48-72 HOURS...BUT UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION MAKES A SIGNIFICANT COMEBACK... DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER. THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRL IS RATHER EASY TO TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 270/07. A LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... THEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR REMNANT LOW...IS PREDICTED. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 12.1N 106.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 12.1N 107.3W 25 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 12.0N 108.9W 25 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 12.0N 110.5W 25 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 12.0N 112.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 20/1200Z 12.0N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 21/1200Z 12.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 171427 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 1500Z MON OCT 17 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 106.2W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 106.2W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.1N 107.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.0N 108.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.0N 112.1W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.0N 115.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 12.0N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 106.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 171434 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 THE DEVELOPMENT TREND THAT WE HAVE BEEN ANTICIPATING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IS UNDERWAY. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED VERY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0/45 KT...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 12Z SUGGESTS WINDS ARE ALSO 40-45 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND I EXPECT STRONGER WINDS WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. WILMA DROVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT A WESTWARD COMPONENT SEEMS TO HAVE RETURNED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 235/4. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXTRAORDINARILY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THERE IS PRESENTLY A HUGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. WHAT IS MOST PUZZLING IS THAT THE MODELS THAT BEST ANTICIPATED THE SOUTHWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT...THE GFDL AND THE GFS...ARE WAY OUT THERE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A TRACK OVER WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF TAKE WILMA INTO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE ARE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THESE MODELS THAT IS AFFECTING THE ABILITY OF WILMA TO CONNECT WITH THE WESTERLIES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE IT IS TEMPTING TO ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE RECENT CHANGES WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS...THE FACT THAT THE 6Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR NORTH MAY MEAN THAT THEY ARE TOO FAST WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO. FOR NOW...I HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. CLEARLY...CONFIDENCE AT THE LONGER RANGES IS UNUSUALLY LOW. WHILE THE SOUTHWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT NOW REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HONDURAS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK AS WELL AS THE SIZE OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...IT IS A LITTLE PREMATURE TO LOWER THE WATCH AND WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 16.3N 80.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 16.2N 80.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 16.3N 81.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.5N 82.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 83.7W 80 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 85.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 20.0N 86.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W 95 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 171434 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 1500Z MON OCT 17 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 80.0W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 80.0W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 79.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.2N 80.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 81.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 82.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 83.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 85.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 80.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 171435 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 ...WILMA STRENGTHENING...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR HONDURAS... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES... 355 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 230 MILES... 370 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.3 N... 80.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 171436 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 16.3N 81.5W 53 X X X 53 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 8 9 17 16.5N 82.6W 32 1 X 1 34 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 4 9 13 17.0N 83.7W 12 13 2 1 28 MGPB 157N 886W X X 1 6 7 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 2 2 MHNJ 165N 859W X 5 9 4 18 MKJS 185N 779W X X 1 4 5 MNPC 141N 834W 3 7 2 2 14 MWCG 193N 814W 10 4 3 2 19 MNBL 120N 839W X X 1 1 2 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 SKSP 126N 817W X 2 1 1 4 MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 4 5 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 3 3 MUSN 216N 826W X 1 4 7 12 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 11 11 MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 5 6 KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2 MUAN 219N 850W X X 5 9 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 171446 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 CORRECTED TO ADD RAINFALL STATEMENT FOR HONDURAS. ...WILMA STRENGTHENING...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR HONDURAS... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES... 355 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 230 MILES... 370 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.3 N... 80.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 171600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 12.1N 105.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 105.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 12.1N 107.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 12.0N 108.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 12.0N 110.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 12.0N 112.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 12.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 12.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z.// ** WTCA44 TJSJ 171457 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT LUNES 17 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA SE INTENSIFICA...SE EMITEN AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA HONDURAS... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE HONDURAS HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL BORDE ENTRE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AL OESTE HASTA CABO CAMARON. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE ESTAR ALERTAS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.3 NORTE... LONGITUD 80.0 OESTE O COMO A 220 MILLAS...355 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS...ESTE NORESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN EL BORDE ENTRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. WILMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL SUROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH ... 7 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y UN GIRO GRADUAL AL OESTE SE ESPERA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SE ESTIMAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y WILMA PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS ...110 KILOMETROS... MAYORMENTE AL SUR DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 998 MB...29.47 PULGADAS. LA TORMENTA SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y JAMAICA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES DE 2 A 3 PULGADAS...CON AREAS AISLADAS DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE HONDURAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...16.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.0 OESTE MOVIMIENTO...AL SUROESTE A 5 MPH... VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...998 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTJP31 RJTD 171500 *** WARNING 171500. WARNING VALID 181500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 955 HPA AT 28.8N 135.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 31.4N 138.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 171500UTC 28.8N 135.8E FAIR MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 181500UTC 31.4N 138.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 191200UTC 32.7N 140.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 201200UTC 34.9N 143.9E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 171712 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.10.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 105.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2005 12.2N 105.6W WEAK 00UTC 18.10.2005 12.2N 107.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 12.2N 109.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2005 11.9N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2005 11.3N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2005 10.4N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2005 10.1N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2005 10.5N 116.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 79.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2005 16.9N 79.6W WEAK 00UTC 18.10.2005 16.0N 80.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 15.6N 80.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2005 17.1N 81.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2005 17.7N 83.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 18.0N 84.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.10.2005 18.9N 85.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.10.2005 20.2N 87.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2005 21.1N 88.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2005 21.3N 88.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2005 21.4N 87.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.10.2005 21.3N 86.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2005 22.0N 86.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 171712 ** WTNT34 KNHC 171748 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 ...WILMA MOVING SLOWLY AS IT GATHERS STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 380 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 225 MILES... 365 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. WILMA HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 80 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.1 N... 80.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...DRIFTING SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$