** WTCA44 TJSJ 170608 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT LUNES 17 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE ACERCANDOSE A INTENSIDAD DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE ESTAR ALERTAS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.4 NORTE... LONGITUD 79.6 OESTE O COMO A 170 MILLAS...270 KM...AL SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN. LA DEPRESION HA ESTADO MOVIENDOSE EN LA MISMA DIRECCION GENERAL POR LAS PASADAS HORAS...NO OBSTANTE UN GIRO LENTO HACIA EL OESTE O SUROESTE CERCA DE 2 MPH...4 KILOMETROS POR HORA...SE ESPERA CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CORRIENTES DE ARRASTRE PERMANECEN DEBILES Y PUEDE SER POSIBLE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS MAXIMOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA ORGANIZANDO LENTAMENTE...Y SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE HOY. DE SER ASI...ESTA ROMPERIA EL RECORD DE 21 TORMENTAS CON NOMBRES YA REGISTRADO EN EL 1933. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y JAMAICA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...17.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.6 OESTE MOVIMIENTO...AL OESTE ... VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1000 MB. ULA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTJP21 RJTD 170600 *** WARNING 170600. WARNING VALID 180600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 950 HPA AT 27.6N 134.9E EAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 29.9N 136.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 31.8N 139.5E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 35.4N 143.3E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 170600UTC 27.6N 134.9E GOOD MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 180600UTC 29.9N 136.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 190600UTC 31.8N 139.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 200600UTC 35.4N 143.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 170600 UTC 00HR 27.6N 134.9E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 32.1N 137.7E 965HPA 35M/S P+48HR 36.5N 143.4E 980HPA 25M/S P+72HR 41.4N 153.6E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 170600 UTC 00HR 27.6N 134.9E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 32.1N 137.7E 965HPA 35M/S P+48HR 36.5N 143.4E 980HPA 25M/S P+72HR 41.4N 153.6E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUA LLY TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 170900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 27.7N 135.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.7N 135.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 29.6N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 31.2N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 32.9N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 35.0N 142.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 39.4N 148.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 33 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 47.1N 163.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 28.2N 135.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 170826 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WILMA BECOMES THE 21ST NAMED STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TIES THE RECORD FOR NAMED STORMS SET BACK IN 1933... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES ... 280 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA THE 21ST NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... WHICH TIES THE RECORD OF 21 NAMED STORMS SET BACK IN 1933. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM... MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 170828 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0900Z MON OCT 17 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 79.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 79.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 79.6W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 80.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.2N 81.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.4N 82.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.8N 83.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...115NE 100SE 100SW 115NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 86.5W...NEAR NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 87.5W...NEAR NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 79.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 170829 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.2N 81.1W 49 X X X 49 MUAN 219N 850W X X 7 9 16 17.4N 82.0W 32 X 1 X 33 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 6 11 17 17.8N 83.3W 10 11 3 1 25 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 2 9 11 MKJP 179N 768W X X 1 2 3 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 5 5 MKJS 185N 779W X 2 2 4 8 MHNJ 165N 859W X 2 7 6 15 MWCG 193N 814W 21 2 2 1 26 MNPC 141N 834W X 2 3 2 7 MUCM 214N 779W X X 1 3 4 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 2 2 MUCF 221N 805W X 2 3 4 9 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 10 10 MUSN 216N 826W X 5 6 5 16 MARATHON FL X X X 2 2 MUHA 230N 824W X X 3 6 9 KEY WEST FL X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 170835 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 0900Z MON OCT 17 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 105.4W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 105.4W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 105.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 11.7N 109.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 11.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 12.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 170843 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT LUNES 17 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA SE CONVIERTE EN LA DUODECIMA PRIMERA TORMENTA NOMBRADA DE LA TEMPORADA CICLONICA DEL ATLANTICO DE 2005 SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... ...IGUALA LA MARCA PARA TORMENTAS NOMBRADAS ESTABLECIDA EN EL 1933... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE ESTAR ALERTAS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.2 NORTE... LONGITUD 79.7 OESTE O COMO A 175 MILLAS...280 KM...AL SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN. LA TORMENTA SE MUEVE HACIA EL SUROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR. UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL SUROESTE O OESTE ES ANTICIPADA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CORRIENTES DE ARRASTRE PERMANECEN DEBILES Y PUEDE SER POSIBLE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LA DATA SUSTRAIDA DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE LOS MAXIMOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTO CONVIERTE A WILMA EN LA DUODECIMA PRIMERA TOMENTA TROPICAL NOMBRADA DE LA TEMPORADA CICLONICA DEL ATLANTICO DE 2005 IGUALANDO LA MARCA PARA TORMENTAS NOMBRADAS ESTABLECIDA EN EL 1933. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS ...75 KM... MAYORMENTE AL SUROESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y JAMAICA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...17.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.7 OESTE MOVIMIENTO...AL SUROESTE A 3 MPH... VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1000 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTNT44 KNHC 170911 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 A TREMENDOUS BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH TOPS AS COLD AS -87C TO -89C... HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE ALLEGED CENTER OF NOW TROPICAL STORM WILMA. MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA ALONG WITH WIND DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42057 INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER... THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION... RATHER IT IS LIKELY LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE -50C CLOUD TOPS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5 FROM TAFB... SAB...AND AFWA... AND A UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ODT INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 17/0545Z WAS T2.8/41 KT. IN ADDITION... GRADIENT WIND CALCULATIONS USING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND NEARBY PRESSURE VALUES FROM THE NOAA BUOY AND JAMAICA SUPPORT 35-KT WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN 60 NMI OF THE CENTER. IF ANY 35-KT WINDS EXISTS... THEN THEY ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WHERE THE STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT... WHICH MAKES WILMA THE 21ST NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE VERY BUSY 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THIS TIES THE RECORD SET BACK IN 1933. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 235/03. THE GENERAL TREND IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY STEERING FLOW AVAILABLE. BUT ON A LARGER SCALE... WILMA REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN TO HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO THE NORTHWEST AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WESTWARD OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST TRACK. THE ONLY MODELS NOT CLOSE TO THE NHC CONSENSUS OR GUNA MODEL ARE THE ECMWF... CANADIAN... AND THE GFS 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MODELS. THE ECWMF HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS TRACK THE PAST 5 DAYS IN MOVING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IT ALSO WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO EARLY AND ACCURATELY PREDICT CYCLOGENESIS. THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALSO THE ONLY MODELS THAT DO NOT LOSE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z INDICATE A GOOD THERMAL PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH... WHICH ONLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE PICKED UP ON. THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN/ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA... CUBA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS. ALSO... THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN A BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.... WHICH MEANS THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT... OR WEST... OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL... AND ALSO UNTIL THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BECOMES MORE CERTAIN BY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND SHEAR ARE STILL UNDERCUTTING THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER... THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BASED ON CONVENTIONAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A 17/0155Z SSMI WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PRECLUDES FORECASTING WILMA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LESS ROBUST SHIPS MODEL AND THE VERY BULLISH GFDL MODEL... WITH THE LATTER MODEL MAKING WILMA A 109-KT HURRICANE BY 60 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 17.2N 79.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 17.1N 80.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 17.2N 81.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 17.4N 82.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 17.8N 83.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 85.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 86.5W 90 KT...NEAR NORTHEAST YUCATAN 120HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 87.5W 90 KT...NEAR NORTHEAST YUCATAN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 170925 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005 MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STRIPPED AWAY ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER... DESPITE THE LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER... DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.0/30 KT FROM ALL 3 AGENCIES. GIVEN THE VERY TIGHT SWIRL NOTED IN NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE IS 270/07. TD-16E REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING IN A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER... THE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST... SO ANY BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME NORTHWARD JUMPS OR WOBBLES IN THE TRACK. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY 36 HOURS... WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 27.5C TO 28C SSTS. HOWEVER... THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 38 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY 48 HOURS. THIS EXTREMELY DRY ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST OR EVEN REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEYOND 24 HOURS.... WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMANT LOW. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 12.0N 105.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 12.0N 106.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.0N 108.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 11.7N 109.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 11.5N 111.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 11.5N 114.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 11.5N 118.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 12.5N 121.5W 35 KT $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 170900 *** WARNING 170900. WARNING VALID 180900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 955 HPA AT 28.0N 135.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 30.1N 137.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 170900UTC 28.0N 135.2E GOOD MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 180900UTC 30.1N 137.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 190600UTC 31.8N 139.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 200600UTC 35.4N 143.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTNT34 KNHC 171147 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 ...WILMA MOVING ERRATICALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES ... 335 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. WILMA IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH ...8 KM/HR...BUT A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND A CONTINUED ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM... MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 171152 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT LUNES 17 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...WILMA SE MUEVE ERATICAMENTE EN EL CARIBE... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE ESTAR ALERTAS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.8 NORTE... LONGITUD 79.6 OESTE O COMO A 205 MILLAS...335 KM...AL SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN. LA TORMENTA SE MUEVE HACIA EL SUROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH ... 8 KM/HR. UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL SUROESTE O OESTE ES ANTICIPADA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CORRIENTES DE ARRASTRE PERMANECEN DEBILES Y PUEDE SER POSIBLE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS MAXIMOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS SE ESTIMA EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS ...75 KM... MAYORMENTE AL SUROESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y JAMAICA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...16.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.6 OESTE MOVIMIENTO...AL SURA 5 MPH... VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION POR WFO SAN JUAN PR