** WTSR20 WSSS 161800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA44 TJSJ 170019 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT DOMINGO 16 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO MUY LENTAMENTE Y AUN NO SE FORTALECE... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE ESTAR ALERTAS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.7 OESTE O COMO A 150 MILLAS...245 KM...AL SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENOD HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 2 MPH...4 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CORREINTES DE ARRASTRE PERMANECEN DEBILES Y PUEDE SER POSIBLE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS MAXIMOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DE SER ASI...ESTA ROMPERIA EL RECORD DE 21 TORMENTAS CON NOMBRES YA REGISTRADA EN EL 1933. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1001 MB...29.56 PULGADAS. UNA BOYA DE NOAA 42057...LOCALIZADA COMO A 65 MILLAS AL OESTE DEL CENTRO DE CIRCULACION...RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO UNA PRESION UNA PRESION DE 1004 MILIBARAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y JAMAICA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...17.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.7 OESTE MOVIMIENTO...AL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS 35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1001 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 170000 UTC 00HR 26.4N 134.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NNE 10KM/H P+24HR 28.7N 135.8E 970HPA 33M/S P+48HR 31.8N 139.0E 980HPA 25M/S P+72HR 35.0N 143.5E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 170000 *** WARNING 170000. WARNING VALID 180000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 26.5N 134.6E EAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 28.2N 135.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 30.1N 137.2E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 32.6N 140.5E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 170000UTC 26.5N 134.6E GOOD MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 180000UTC 28.2N 135.1E 100NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 190000UTC 30.1N 137.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 200000UTC 32.6N 140.5E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUA LLY TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUA LLY TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 170000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TY 0520 KIROGI ANALYSIS POSITION 170000UTC 26.5N 134.6E MOVEMENT NNE 7KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 84KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 180000UTC 28.7N 135.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 190000UTC 31.2N 137.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 200000UTC 33.7N 141.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 170300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 26.5N 134.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 134.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 28.3N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 30.0N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 31.7N 138.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 33.7N 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 37.2N 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 32 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 43.8N 161.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 134.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 170239 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 ...SLOWLY MOVING DEPRESSION NOT QUITE A TROPICAL STORM... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES... 245 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. IF AND WHEN IT DOES SO... IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21 NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 170239 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0300Z MON OCT 17 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 79.7W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 79.7W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 79.6W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.7N 80.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 80.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 81.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.3N 83.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N 85.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...115NE 100SE 100SW 115NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 79.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 170240 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 0300Z MON OCT 17 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 104.8W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 104.8W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 104.4W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.3N 105.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.2N 107.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 11.9N 108.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.5N 109.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.0N 113.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 11.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 12.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 104.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 170240 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.8N 80.9W 65 X X X 65 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 7 10 17 18.0N 81.9W 41 X X 1 42 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 1 8 9 18.3N 83.0W 18 13 X 1 32 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 4 4 MKJS 185N 779W 2 X X 2 4 MHNJ 165N 859W X 1 6 7 14 MWCG 193N 814W 35 X X X 35 MNPC 141N 834W X 1 2 3 6 MUCF 221N 805W X 3 2 4 9 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 8 8 MUSN 216N 826W 1 8 5 4 18 MARATHON FL X X X 2 2 MUHA 230N 824W X 1 4 6 11 KEY WEST FL X X X 4 4 MUAN 219N 850W X 1 9 8 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 170256 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT DOMINGO 16 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO MUY LENTAMENTE Y AUN NO ES TORMENTA TROPICAL... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE ESTAR ALERTAS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.7 OESTE O COMO A 155 MILLAS...245 KM...AL SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE CERCA DE 2 MPH...4 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CORRIENTES DE ARRASTRE PERMANECEN DEBILES Y PUEDE SER POSIBLE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS MAXIMOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION SE TORNE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL LUNES. DE SER ASI...ESTA ROMPERIA EL RECORD DE 21 TORMENTAS CON NOMBRES YA REGISTRADO EN EL 1933. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1001 MB...29.56 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y JAMAICA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...17.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.7 OESTE MOVIMIENTO...AL OESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1001 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTNT44 KNHC 170300 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CERTAINLY CHANGED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. WHILE OUTER BANDS HAVE DISSIPATED... SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED NEAR AND ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERCOLATING RATHER THAN MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND T2.0/30 KT FROM AFWA. WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 42057 ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER AND OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION HAVE BEEN NO STRONGER THAN 19 KT DURING THE EVENING... AND IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT THE WINDS ARE TWICE THAT STRONG BENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT... THE DEPRESSION APPEARS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND WILL LIKELY REACH IT ON MONDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/2. THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE WESTWARD TREND CONTINUES IN THE 18Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFDL WHICH NOW FORECAST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN HANGING ON TO PROGRESSIVELY MORE MID-LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON DAYS 4-5. THE NEW GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE NOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE NOGAPS... WHICH IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT HAS NUDGED A LITTLE BACK TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST PATTERN NOW ANTICIPATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD DELAY A TURN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD TO VERY LATE IN THE FIVE DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD... BUT NOT AS FAR AS... THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE MODELS... ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3-5... THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST OR SUPPORTING REASONING. AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROVIDED BY A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND WATERS WITH LARGE UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT... SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS APPEARS EVEN MORE LIKELY NOW GIVEN THE MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER THIS EVENING. THE LATEST GFDL FORECASTS MORE STRENGTHENING... AND MORE RAPIDLY... THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS... WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 115 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. MEANWHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE REMAINS MORE CONSERVATIVE IN FORECASTING A HURRICANE IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN BETWEEN AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 17.6N 79.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 17.7N 80.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 17.8N 80.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 18.0N 81.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 18.3N 83.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 19.0N 85.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 86.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 87.5W 90 KT $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 170302 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAD INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING... AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM... SUPPORTED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM ALL CLASSIFYING AGENCIES. HOWEVER... RECENT SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS SHEARED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BANDING FEATURE... AND THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE... BASED ON THE SHORT TERM CLOUD PATTERN CHANGES... WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL AGREE ON A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT... THE GFDL FORECASTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SHIPS MODEL. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/7. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A MID- LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THIS STEERING CURRENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER- LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT FASTER BEYOND 36 HOURS TO CONFORM WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 12.2N 104.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 12.3N 105.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.2N 107.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 11.9N 108.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 11.5N 109.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 11.0N 113.1W 45 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 11.5N 116.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 12.5N 119.5W 40 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 170400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 12.0N 104.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 104.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 12.3N 105.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 12.2N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 11.9N 108.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 11.5N 109.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 11.0N 113.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 11.5N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 12.5N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 170300 *** WARNING 170300. WARNING VALID 180300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 27.1N 134.9E EAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 29.1N 135.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 170300UTC 27.1N 134.9E GOOD MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 180300UTC 29.1N 135.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 190000UTC 30.1N 137.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 200000UTC 32.6N 140.5E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 170523 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM PILAR ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 104.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.10.2005 12.1N 104.3W MODERATE 12UTC 17.10.2005 12.8N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 13.7N 106.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 13.9N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2005 13.7N 109.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2005 13.7N 111.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2005 13.7N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2005 13.7N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2005 13.8N 117.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2005 13.9N 119.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2005 13.8N 120.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.6N 133.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.10.2005 10.2N 133.1W WEAK 12UTC 17.10.2005 10.5N 133.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 12.1N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 13.7N 134.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2005 16.0N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2005 16.8N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2005 17.1N 134.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 79.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.10.2005 16.3N 80.0W WEAK 12UTC 17.10.2005 16.5N 81.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 16.7N 81.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2005 17.0N 83.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2005 17.1N 84.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 17.9N 86.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2005 18.7N 88.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.10.2005 19.4N 90.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.10.2005 20.4N 91.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2005 20.4N 92.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2005 20.5N 94.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.10.2005 21.2N 95.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170523 ** WTIN20 DEMS 170555 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 17-10-2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AAA RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 20.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION AA A ====== OVER ** WTNT34 KNHC 170557 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 ...SLOWLY MOVING DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 270 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THE PAST FEW HOURS... BUT A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. IF AND WHEN IT DOES SO... IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21 NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$