** WTPH20 RPMM 161200 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 27 ( FINAL ) AT 1200 16 OCTOBER TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FIVE POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 170000 TWO SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT ZERO EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FROM WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 161800UTC 25.8N 134.2E GOOD MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 171800UTC 27.4N 134.4E 100NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 181800UTC 28.1N 134.7E 160NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 191800UTC 28.7N 135.0E 290NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 161800 UTC 00HR 25.8N 134.2E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NNE 10KM/H P+24HR 28.0N 134.7E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 29.8N 136.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 32.2N 139.0E 965HPA 35M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 162100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 25.8N 134.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 134.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 27.0N 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 28.1N 135.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 29.5N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 31.5N 138.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 34.8N 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 37.4N 148.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 40.7N 155.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 134.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.// ** WTPZ21 KNHC 162032 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 2100Z SUN OCT 16 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 104.1W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 104.1W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.9N 104.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.9N 105.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 11.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 11.5N 108.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 11.0N 113.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 11.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 104.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 162032 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHILE THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 2.0 FROM TAFB. GIVEN THE SHEARING PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A CONSERVATIVE 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION IS FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NOW 290/6. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE...IN THAT THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REACH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT BY 18-24 HOURS... THEN SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF TD-16E SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION...AND LESS OF A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 27C-28C SSTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20 KT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 10-15 KT IN 36 HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM STATUS...IT COULD BECOME ONE MUCH SOONER IF THE SHEAR RELAXES JUST A LITTLE BIT. FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 11.8N 104.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 11.9N 104.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 11.9N 105.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 11.7N 107.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 11.5N 108.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 11.0N 110.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 11.0N 113.8W 40 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 11.5N 117.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 162036 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 ...AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH ... 4 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONITNUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF IT DOES SO...IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21 NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 162038 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. INDEED...THEY HAVE YET TO FIND ANY FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HIGHER THAN 31 KT...WHICH ONLY SUPPORTS 25 KT AT THE SURFACE. IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY HOWEVER...I WILL ASSUME THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EXIST SOMEWHERE THE AIRCRAFT HASN'T YET SAMPLED. WHILE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY OUTER BANDS WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CORE. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTER ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE INHIBITING FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY...HOWEVER. THE GFDL IS STILL CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN TWO TO THREE DAYS...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL CALLING FOR MORE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST...SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC. EARLIER THE DEPRESSION WAS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD..BUT NOW THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BYPASSING THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...A TURN BACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...UKMET... NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF RELATIVELY UNMOVED. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THESE MODELS SHOW LESS EROSION OF THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND HAVE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL...WITH THE UKMET...GFS...AND NOGAPS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER WEST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 17.7N 79.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 17.8N 79.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 17.9N 80.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 18.1N 81.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 18.4N 81.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 19.5N 83.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 21.0N 85.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 23.5N 86.0W 95 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 162038 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 2100Z SUN OCT 16 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 79.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 79.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 79.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.8N 79.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.9N 80.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.1N 81.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.4N 81.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 85.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 23.5N 86.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 79.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 162040 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.9N 80.4W 99 X X X 99 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 2 10 12 18.1N 81.0W 54 X X X 54 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 5 5 18.4N 81.8W 32 1 1 X 34 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 2 2 MKJP 179N 768W X X 1 2 3 MHNJ 165N 859W X X 3 7 10 MKJS 185N 779W 10 1 1 1 13 MNPC 141N 834W X X 1 3 4 MWCG 193N 814W 30 1 1 X 32 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 4 4 MUCM 214N 779W X 1 1 4 6 MARATHON FL X X X 5 5 MUCF 221N 805W X 4 4 5 13 MIAMI FL X X X 2 2 MUSN 216N 826W X 6 6 6 18 KEY WEST FL X X X 7 7 MUHA 230N 824W X X 4 9 13 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 3 3 MUAN 219N 850W X X 5 10 15 FT MYERS FL X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 162055 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT DOMINGO 16 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...INFORMACION DEL AVION INDICA QUE LA DEPRESION NO SE HA FORTALECIDO... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PARA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE ESTAR ALERTAS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.6 OESTE O COMO A 150 MILLAS...245 KM...AL SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENOD HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 2 MPH...4 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CORREINTES DE ARRASTRE PERMANECEN DEBILES Y PUEDE SER POSIBLE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS MAXIMOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DE SER ASI...ESTA ROMPERIA EL RECORD DE 21 TORMENTAS CON NOMBRES YA REGISTRADA EN EL 1933. LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL MEDIDA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 1001 MB...29.56 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y JAMAICA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE TOTALES AISLADOS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...17.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.6 MOVIMIENTO...AL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS 35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1001 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTPN31 PHNC 162200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 11.7N 103.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 103.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 11.9N 104.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 11.9N 105.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 11.7N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 11.5N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 11.0N 110.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 11.0N 113.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 11.5N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 162100 *** WARNING 162100. WARNING VALID 172100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 940 HPA AT 26.1N 134.4E EAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 27.4N 134.5E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 162100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 162100UTC 26.1N 134.4E GOOD MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 172100UTC 27.4N 134.5E 100NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 181800UTC 28.1N 134.7E 160NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 191800UTC 28.7N 135.0E 290NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTNT34 KNHC 162357 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 ...DEPRESSION MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND NOT YET ANY STRONGER... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF IT DOES SO... IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21 NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. NOAA BUOY 42057... LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER... RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$