** WTSR20 WSSS 160600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA44 TJSJ 161214 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 3A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT DOMINGO 16 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL MOVIENDOSE POCO SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL AMR CARIBE... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EN AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PAA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS OR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.4 OESTE O COMO A 200 MILLAS...325 KM...AL SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN. LA DEPRESION SE HA MOVIDO POCO SOBRE LAS PASADAS HORAS...PERO UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL AL OESTE O SUROESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS SE MANTENGAN DEBILES ASI ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. LOS MAXIMOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIAN TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY. LA PRESION MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DEPRESION PRODUZCA LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE CAYMAN Y JAMAICA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE TOTALES AISLADOS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...17.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.4 MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS 35 MPH...PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EXPEDIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ CASTRO ** WTJP21 RJTD 161200 *** WARNING 161200. WARNING VALID 171200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 940 HPA AT 25.2N 134.0E EAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 26.5N 134.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 27.5N 134.7E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 28.2N 134.7E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 161200UTC 25.2N 134.0E GOOD MOVE NE 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 171200UTC 26.5N 134.7E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 181200UTC 27.5N 134.7E 160NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 191200UTC 28.2N 134.7E 290NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 161200 UTC 00HR 25.2N 133.9E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NNE 5KM/H P+24HR 27.1N 134.3E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 28.2N 134.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 30.0N 136.0E 965HPA 35M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 161500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 25.3N 133.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 133.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 26.5N 134.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 27.5N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 28.6N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 30.1N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 33.1N 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 36.3N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 40.6N 153.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 134.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 161433 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 ...DEPRESSION STALLED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE A GENERALLY WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN EXTREMELY WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 161435 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 THERE HAVE BEEN NO DRAMATIC CHANGES TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MORE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH HINTS OF A LITTLE MORE BANDING. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE UNCHANGED...AT T2.5/35 KT...BUT AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SUCH A BROAD WIND FIELD THE WINDS ARE PROBABLY STILL LAGGING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE DEPRESSION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER ASSESS THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW SHEAR AND GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND THERE IS A DEEP SUPPLY OF WARM WATER IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE RAPID INSTENSIFICATION COMPONENT OF THE SHIPS MODEL IS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT... BUT A BETTER DEFINED INNER CORE STRUCTURE NEEDS TO FORM FIRST. THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THREE DAYS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FACTORS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE TO ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS MODEL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT FAVORS THE GFDL LATER ON. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND PERHAPS MAY HAVE DRIFTED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. THIS TOO...WILL BE BETTER ASSESSED WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...WITH THE MORE DOMINANT ONE BEING LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION BUT WILL SOON BE MOVING BY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE WESTWARD DRIFT TO RESUME LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY ERODE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH AS THE RIDGE ERODES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A SHADE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 17.1N 79.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 17.2N 80.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 17.3N 80.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 17.7N 81.2W 65 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 20.5N 84.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 23.5N 84.5W 95 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 161436 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 1500Z SUN OCT 16 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 79.3W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 79.3W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 79.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 80.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.3N 80.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.7N 81.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 20.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 23.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 79.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 161436 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 1500Z SUN OCT 16 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 103.2W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 103.2W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.4N 103.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.4N 104.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.1N 105.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 10.7N 106.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 10.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 10.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 10.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 103.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 161436 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005 A 0819 UTC AMSU PASS INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF TD-16E WAS SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAS ALSO CONFIRMED BY THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY WHICH SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE 2.0 FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 2.5 FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AT 280/5...AND PERHAPS EVEN FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN INDICATED HERE. A LARGE AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REACH ITS MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT BY 24 HOURS THEN SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO TO SLOWLY BUILD/SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF TD-16E SHOULD ACT TO FORCE THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT THAT THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 22 KT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE TO 15 KT IN 36 HOURS AND TO 10-15 KT THROUGH DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM STATUS...IT COULD BECOME ONE MUCH SOONER IF THE SHEAR RELAXES JUST A LITTLE BIT. FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 11.3N 103.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 11.4N 103.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 11.4N 104.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 11.1N 105.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 10.7N 106.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 10.0N 109.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 10.0N 112.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 10.0N 116.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 161436 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.2N 80.0W 99 X X X 99 MUAN 219N 850W X X 2 11 13 17.3N 80.5W 61 X X X 61 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 1 9 10 17.7N 81.2W 36 1 X 1 38 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 4 4 MKJP 179N 768W X 1 2 4 7 MHNJ 165N 859W X X 2 7 9 MKJS 185N 779W 8 2 2 3 15 MNPC 141N 834W X X 2 4 6 MWCG 193N 814W 15 7 2 2 26 SKSP 126N 817W X X X 2 2 MUCM 214N 779W X X 1 6 7 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 3 3 MUCF 221N 805W X 1 3 8 12 MARATHON FL X X X 3 3 MUSN 216N 826W X 1 7 8 16 KEY WEST FL X X X 4 4 MUHA 230N 824W X X 2 8 10 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 161440 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 3A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT DOMINGO 16 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION ESTACIONARIA EN EL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EN AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PAA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS OR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.3 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS...315 KM...AL SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN. LA DEPRESION HA ESTADO ESTACIONARIA POR LAS PASADAS HORAS...AUNQUE UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL AL OESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS SE MANTENGAN DEBILES ASI ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. LOS MAXIMOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIAN TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY. LA PRESION MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MB...29.59 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DEPRESION PRODUZCA LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE CAYMAN Y JAMAICA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE TOTALES AISLADOS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...17.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.3 MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIA. VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS 35 MPH...PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1002 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EXPEDIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ CASTRO ** WTCA44 TJSJ 161441 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT DOMINGO 16 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION ESTACIONARIA EN EL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PAA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE VIGILAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS O SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.3 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS...315 KM...AL SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN. LA DEPRESION HA ESTADO ESTACIONARIA POR LAS PASADAS HORAS...AUNQUE UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL AL OESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS SE MANTENGAN DEBILES ASI ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. LOS MAXIMOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIAN TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY. LA PRESION MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MB...29.59 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DEPRESION PRODUZCA LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE CAYMAN Y JAMAICA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE TOTALES AISLADOS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...17.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.3 MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIA. VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS 35 MPH...PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1002 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EXPEDIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ CASTRO ** WTPN31 PHNC 161600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 11.3N 103.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 103.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 11.4N 103.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 11.4N 104.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 11.1N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 10.7N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 10.0N 109.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 10.0N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 10.0N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z, 171000Z AND 171600Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 161200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 27 (FINAL) AT 1200 16 OCTOBER TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 25.3N 134.0E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 40MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 150KMS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 170000 26.4N 135.0E WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FROM WEATHER WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTJP31 RJTD 161500 *** WARNING 161500. WARNING VALID 171500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 940 HPA AT 25.4N 134.0E EAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 26.6N 134.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 161500UTC 25.4N 134.0E GOOD MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 171500UTC 26.6N 134.4E 100NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 181200UTC 27.5N 134.7E 160NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 191200UTC 28.2N 134.7E 290NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 161727 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.10.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN- E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 102.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.10.2005 11.3N 102.9W WEAK 00UTC 17.10.2005 11.9N 104.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 12.1N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 12.2N 106.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 12.1N 108.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2005 11.5N 109.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2005 11.2N 111.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 11.2N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2005 11.2N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2005 11.5N 116.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2005 12.3N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2005 13.6N 118.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2005 13.9N 118.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.7N 132.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.10.2005 9.7N 132.1W WEAK 00UTC 17.10.2005 9.7N 133.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2005 10.6N 134.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 11.9N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 13.0N 134.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2005 14.5N 134.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.10.2005 15.5N 134.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 16.4N 135.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2005 15.6N 136.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 79.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.10.2005 17.0N 79.3W WEAK 00UTC 17.10.2005 16.9N 79.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 16.9N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 17.1N 79.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 17.2N 80.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2005 17.7N 81.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.10.2005 18.1N 83.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 18.7N 84.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.10.2005 19.4N 85.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2005 20.3N 86.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2005 21.6N 87.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2005 22.1N 88.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2005 23.3N 88.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 161727 ** WTNT34 KNHC 161737 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 ...DEPRESSION MEANDERING IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO ARRIVE SHORTLY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE A GENERALLY WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN EXTREMELY WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...17.3 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$