** WTJP21 RJTD 160600 *** WARNING 160600. WARNING VALID 170600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 940 HPA AT 24.6N 133.5E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 26.5N 133.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 27.7N 133.9E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 28.1N 134.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 160600UTC 24.6N 133.5E GOOD MOVE NE 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 170600UTC 26.5N 133.9E 100NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 180600UTC 27.7N 133.9E 160NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 190600UTC 28.1N 134.0E 290NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 160600 UTC 00HR 24.6N 133.5E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NNE 5KM/H P+24HR 26.1N 133.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 26.9N 133.9E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 27.5N 133.8E 960HPA 38M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 160600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TY 0520 KIROGI ANALYSIS POSITION 160600UTC 24.6N 133.5E MOVEMENT NE 6KT PRES/VMAX 940HPA 84KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 170600UTC 26.4N 133.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 180600UTC 28.5N 134.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 190600UTC 31.0N 137.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 62KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 160600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 160600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 160900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 24.7N 133.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 133.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 25.6N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 26.9N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 28.3N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 29.9N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 33.1N 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 36.5N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 39.7N 151.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 133.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 160600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 26 AT 0600 16 OCTOBER TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 170600 TWO SIX POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTCA44 TJSJ 160842 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT DOMINGO 16 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SE TORMENTA MEJOR ORGANIZADAA MEDIDA QUE SE MANTIENE CASI ESTACIONARIA SOBRE EL MAR CARIBE OCCIDENTAL... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EN AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PAA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS OR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.0 OESTE O COMO A 215 MILLAS...345 KM...AL SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 125 MILLAS...205 KM...AL SUROESTE DE MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. LA DEPRESION HA CONTINUADO CASI ESTACIONARIA...BUT UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO AL OESTE SUROESTE COMO A 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS SE MANTENGAN DEBILES ASI ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERROTICO. LOS MAXIMOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL HOY. LA PRESION MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DEPRESION PRODUZCA LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE CAYMAN Y JAMAICA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE AISLADOS DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...17.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.0 MOVIMIENTO ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS 35 MPH...PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EXPEDIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 160843 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY GET BETTER ORGANZIED... WITH EMPHASIS ON THE WORD SLOWLY. DEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED... BUT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH HAS SPLIT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IN TWO. BOTH TAFB AND SAB CAME IN WITH A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT. HOWEVER ...OFTENTIMES THE SURFACE WIND FIELD OF LARGE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE WILL LAG ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KT... WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON NEARBY NOAA BUOY WIND REPORTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS... WITH A MOTION BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES AND NO MORE THAN 3 KT. THE CYCLONE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS... WITH THE MORE DOMINANT ONE BEING LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEAK WESTWARD STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MOVES OVER AND DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF HIGH CENTER THROUGH LOUISIANA AND INTO MISSOURI. THE GLOBAL MODELS HANDLES THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE DIFFERENTLY WITH THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET... AND ECMWF MODELS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH DAY 3... WHEREAS THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS DAMPEN IT OUT AND KEEP A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF. IF ANYTHING... THE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO DAMPEN THESE TYPES OF SHORTWAVES TOO MUCH... SO MY FEELING IS THAT THE GFS... GFDL... UKMET... AND ECMWF MODELS MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY DAYS 2-3 AND... THEREFORE... THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD WEAKEN MORE THAN INDICATED BY THOSE MODELS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A SMALL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER-LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY DAY 5 TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CREATE AN EVEN LARGER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN CUBA OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... OR POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE LEFT...OR WEST... OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTION OF NOGAPS MODEL. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT NOTED IN BOTH 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA ACROSS FLORIDA AND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT... A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND WARM SSTS OF MORE THAN 29C SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT... THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS... AND DECREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER 48 HOURS. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENTAL PATTERN IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO BECOME MAJOR HURRICANES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL... WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 88 KT BY 96 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 17.0N 79.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 16.9N 79.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 16.9N 80.1W 40 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 17.0N 80.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 17.3N 81.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 82.6W 70 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 83.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 22.0N 84.0W 95 KT...NEAR WESTERN CUBA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 160844 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0900Z SUN OCT 16 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 79.3W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 79.3W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.9N 79.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.9N 80.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.3N 81.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N 82.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 22.0N 84.0W...NEAR WESTERN CUBA MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 79.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 160844 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM... SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 160844 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 16.9N 80.1W 99 X X X 99 MUAN 219N 850W X X 2 10 12 17.0N 80.5W 56 X X X 56 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 1 10 11 17.3N 81.2W 32 1 X 1 34 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 5 5 MKJP 179N 768W X 2 2 5 9 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 2 2 MKJS 185N 779W 4 4 4 3 15 MHNJ 165N 859W X X 2 8 10 MWCG 193N 814W 12 6 4 2 24 MNPC 141N 834W X 1 2 4 7 MUCM 214N 779W X X 1 5 6 SKSP 126N 817W X X 1 2 3 MUCF 221N 805W X 1 2 7 10 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 3 3 MUSN 216N 826W X 1 5 9 15 MARATHON FL X X X 2 2 MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 7 8 KEY WEST FL X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 160845 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 0900Z SUN OCT 16 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 102.6W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 102.6W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 102.4W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 10.9N 103.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 10.8N 103.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 10.5N 104.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.3N 106.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 9.9N 108.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 9.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 9.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 102.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 160900 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005 INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TD-16E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED AND DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD -80C HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AR T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA... AND 25 KT FROM SAB. AN EARLIER UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 1005 MB AND 33 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4. A LARGE AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL TO SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO TO SLOWLY BUILD/SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF TD-16E SHOULD ACT TO FORCE THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK... EXCEPT THAT THE FORECAST TIME LENGTH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 120 HOURS NOW THAT THE SHIPS AND THE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE ALIVE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER AT LEAST 28C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IN FACT... THE WATER MAY BE WARMER THAN THAT BASED ON AN SST REPORT OF 84F/29C FROM DRIFTING BUOY 32640 LOCATED NORTH OF TD-16E. THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 21 KT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KT AFTER 48 HOURS... SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 42 KT BY 96 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 11.0N 102.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 10.9N 103.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 10.8N 103.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 10.5N 104.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 10.3N 106.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 9.9N 108.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 9.5N 111.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 9.5N 115.5W 35 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 161000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 11.0N 102.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 102.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 10.9N 103.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 10.8N 103.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 10.5N 104.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 10.3N 106.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 9.9N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 9.5N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 9.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 160600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 26 AT 0600 16 OCTOBER TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 24.8N 133.4E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 40MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 150KMS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 170000 26.4N 135.1E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3 - HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTCA44 TJSJ 160935 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT DOMINGO 16 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CONTINUA ORGANIZANDOSE MEJOR LENTAMENTE A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA AL OESTE SOBRE EL MAR CARIBE NOROCCIDENTAL... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EN AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PAA INFORMACION DE TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS OR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.3 OESTE O COMO A 200 MILLAS...325 KM...AL SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 140 MILLAS...225 KM...AL SUROESTE DE MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO AL OESTE O AL SUROESTE COMO A 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS SE MANTENGAN DEBILES ASI ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. LOS MAXIMOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIAN TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY. LA PRESION MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DEPRESION PRODUZCA LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE CAYMAN Y JAMAICA...CON POSIBILIDAD DE TOTALES AISLADOS DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...17.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.3 MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS 35 MPH...PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EXPEDIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 160900 *** WARNING 160900. WARNING VALID 170900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 940 HPA AT 24.8N 133.7E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 26.5N 134.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 160900UTC 24.8N 133.7E GOOD MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 170900UTC 26.5N 134.0E 100NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 180600UTC 27.7N 133.9E 160NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 190600UTC 28.1N 134.0E 290NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTNT34 KNHC 161138 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A GENERAL WEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$