** WTSR20 WSSS 151800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 160000 *** WARNING 160000. WARNING VALID 170000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 24.2N 132.9E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 26.5N 133.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 28.8N 134.8E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 31.1N 136.9E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 160000UTC 24.2N 132.9E GOOD MOVE ENE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 170000UTC 26.5N 133.9E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 180000UTC 28.8N 134.8E 160NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 190000UTC 31.1N 136.9E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 160000 UTC 00HR 24.3N 132.8E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NNE 10KM/H P+24HR 26.4N 134.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 29.0N 135.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 31.3N 137.2E 970HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 160000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 160000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 160300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 24.3N 132.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 132.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 25.1N 133.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 26.3N 134.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 27.7N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 28.8N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 30.9N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 34.0N 142.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 36.1N 147.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 24.5N 133.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM WEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.// ** WTPZ21 KNHC 160237 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 0300Z SUN OCT 16 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 102.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 102.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 102.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.0N 102.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.9N 104.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 10.7N 104.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 10.3N 107.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 102.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 160242 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005 ...SLOWLY MOVING DEPRESSION GRADUALLY ORGANIZING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 160243 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0300Z SUN OCT 16 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 79.0W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 79.0W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 78.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.8N 79.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.6N 80.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N 80.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.8N 80.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 81.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 79.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 160244 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 16.6N 80.0W 99 X X X 99 MUSN 216N 826W X 1 3 8 12 16.6N 80.4W 42 X X X 42 MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 5 6 16.8N 80.8W 34 1 X X 35 MUAN 219N 850W X X 1 7 8 MTCA 183N 738W X X X 3 3 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 7 7 MKJP 179N 768W X 2 4 6 12 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 4 4 MKJS 185N 779W 5 4 4 4 17 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 2 2 MWCG 193N 814W 9 6 4 4 23 MHNJ 165N 859W X X 2 8 10 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 4 4 MNPC 141N 834W X 1 3 5 9 MUCM 214N 779W X X 2 7 9 SKSP 126N 817W X 1 1 2 4 MUCF 221N 805W X 1 2 7 10 KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 160246 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005 VISIBLE AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 25 KT...AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES CONTINUE TO HAMPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE MODERATE SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND...BASED OFF OF THE SHIPS...WITH THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW/MID-LAYER EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD WEST TO SOUTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE REMNANT LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT WILL REFLECT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHALLOW MEAN BAM. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 11.0N 102.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 11.0N 102.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 17/1200Z 10.9N 104.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/0000Z 10.7N 104.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/0000Z 10.3N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 160301 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005 THE CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES AND DOES NOT YET HAVE VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... BUT OUTER BANDING FEATURES SEEM TO BE GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENVELOPE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED... AS IS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. A 23Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS HAD SOME 30-35 KT VECTORS THAT ARE PROBABLY RAIN CONTAMINATED... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AT ABOUT 225/3. THE WEAK STEERING RESULTS FROM THE DEPRESSION BEING STUCK BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE FLOW AROUND THE GULF RIDGE APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY GREATER INFLUENCE FOR NOW... AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE GULF RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER... THE MODELS SHOW THE GULF RIDGE MIGRATING WESTWARD... LEAVING A GROWING WEAKNESS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ALLOWING THE WESTWARD-BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO BEGIN PUSHING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD. SINCE THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SO GRADUALLY... NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS... EXCEPT FOR THE CANADIAN... FORECAST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO LEAVE THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS TO ADJUST FOR THE INITIAL MOTION... THEN BACK ON TRACK THEREAFTER... AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. EVEN THOUGH THE FORWARD MOTION WILL BE SLOW... THE LARGE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPLY FUEL FOR INTENSIFICATION WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK BENEATH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE COUPLED GFDL SYSTEM FORECASTS A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING TO GREATER THAN 90 KT IN LESS THAN 72 HOURS... WHILE SHIPS SHOWS STEADY BUT MORE CONSERVATIVE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.0N 79.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 16.8N 79.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 16.6N 80.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 16.6N 80.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 16.8N 80.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 81.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 82.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 83.0W 85 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 160400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 11.0N 102.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 102.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 11.0N 102.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 11.0N 103.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 10.9N 104.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 10.7N 104.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 10.3N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT --- REMARKS: 160400Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 102.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 160300 *** WARNING 160300. WARNING VALID 170300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 24.5N 133.2E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 26.8N 134.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 160300UTC 24.5N 133.2E GOOD MOVE NE 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 170300UTC 26.8N 134.0E 100NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 180000UTC 28.8N 134.8E 160NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 190000UTC 31.1N 136.9E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPH RPLL 160000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 25 AT 0000 16 OCTOBER TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 24.3N 132.9E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 40MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 150KMS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 170000 26.4N 134.2E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3 - HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPN31 PHNC 160400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 11.0N 102.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 102.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 11.0N 102.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 11.0N 103.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 10.9N 104.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 10.7N 104.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 10.3N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT --- REMARKS: 160400Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 102.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z.// ** WTIN20 DEMS 160530 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-10-2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AAA RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 19.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION AA A ====== OVER ** WTNT80 EGRR 160528 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.10.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 101.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.10.2005 11.1N 101.6W WEAK 12UTC 16.10.2005 11.2N 101.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2005 11.3N 102.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2005 11.2N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 10.7N 104.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 10.5N 105.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2005 10.4N 106.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2005 10.5N 108.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 10.5N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2005 11.2N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2005 11.9N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2005 12.2N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2005 12.8N 114.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.5N 130.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.10.2005 9.5N 130.9W MODERATE 12UTC 16.10.2005 9.5N 132.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2005 10.3N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 10.6N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 11.9N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 13.1N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2005 14.6N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2005 15.5N 134.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 16.1N 134.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 79.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.10.2005 17.7N 79.0W WEAK 12UTC 16.10.2005 17.1N 79.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2005 17.1N 78.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 17.1N 78.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 17.9N 78.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 18.7N 80.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2005 18.1N 80.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.10.2005 18.8N 81.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 18.9N 81.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.10.2005 19.6N 82.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.10.2005 19.6N 83.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2005 20.5N 83.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2005 21.2N 84.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160528 ** WTNT34 KNHC 160544 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. THE DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT A SLOW WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$