** WTIO20 FMEE 151802 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/10/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/10/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 79.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/16 AT 06 UTC: 14.3S / 78.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING. 24H, VALID 2005/10/16 AT 18 UTC: 14.6S / 77.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS LARGELY DISORGANIZED. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED WITH BUOY 56517 (1003.4 HPA AT 1410Z NEAR 13.98S/80.83E). CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER INTENSIFICATION. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT, 30/35 KT FORCE WINDS STILL EXIST FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ADVISORY ISSUED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION (UNLIKELY).= ** WTIO30 FMEE 151802 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/15 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 79.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/16 06 UTC: 14.3S/78.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 24H: 2005/10/16 18 UTC: 14.6S/77.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2005/10/17 06 UTC: 14.7S/75.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2005/10/17 18 UTC: 14.7S/73.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. MINIMUM SLP IS ESTIMATED WITH BUOY 56517 (1003.4 HPA AT 1410Z NEAR 13.98S/80.83E). CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION : THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING OVER SST ONLY REACHING 26 DEGREES, IN THE VICINITY OF DRY AIR WITH THE REBUILDING OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES SOUTH OF MASCARENES ISLANDS. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT, 25/30 KT FORCE WINDS STILL EXIST FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ADVISORY ISSUED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION (UNLIKELY).= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 151800 UTC 00HR 24.0N 132.4E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NNE 10KM/H P+24HR 26.0N 133.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 28.6N 135.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 31.2N 138.2E 965HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 151800 *** WARNING 151800. WARNING VALID 161800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 24.0N 132.4E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 26.1N 134.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 28.6N 135.5E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 30.7N 138.2E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 151800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 151800UTC 24.0N 132.4E GOOD MOVE ENE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 161800UTC 26.1N 134.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 171800UTC 28.6N 135.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 181800UTC 30.7N 138.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 152100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 24.0N 132.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 132.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 24.7N 133.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 25.8N 133.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 27.0N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 28.4N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 30.6N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 33.3N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 36.1N 147.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 132.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 152100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 80.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 80.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.4S 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 80.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY IN THE LAST 12 HOURS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 10 FEET.// ** WTPZ21 KNHC 152034 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 2100Z SAT OCT 15 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.5W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.5W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 11.0N 101.5W MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 11.0N 102.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.0N 103.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 101.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 152034 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005 THE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION...LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND APPEARS TO BE ATTACHED TO THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS BUT IT IS STILL ON A WEAKENING TREND. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE OR THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM MODELS AND THE GFDL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS BASICALLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 11.0N 101.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 11.0N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 16/1800Z 11.0N 102.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 17/0600Z 11.0N 103.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 152042 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAYBE REQUIRED FOR FOR GRAND CAYMAN LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 140 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 152042 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 2100Z SAT OCT 15 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAYBE REQUIRED FOR FOR GRAND CAYMAN LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.8W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB EYE DIAMETER 60 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.8W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 81.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 78.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 152043 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTYFOUR PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.5N 80.0W 58 X X X 58 MUHA 230N 824W X X 2 7 9 17.5N 80.5W 43 X X X 43 MUAN 219N 850W X X 2 9 11 17.5N 81.0W 29 1 1 1 32 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 1 8 9 MKJP 179N 768W X 2 3 6 11 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 4 4 MKJS 185N 779W 57 X X X 57 MHNJ 165N 859W X X 2 7 9 MWCG 193N 814W 14 6 2 3 25 MNPC 141N 834W X 1 1 5 7 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 3 3 SKSP 126N 817W X X X 3 3 MUCM 214N 779W 1 2 2 4 9 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 MUCF 221N 805W X 3 4 5 12 MARATHON FL X X X 2 2 MUSN 216N 826W X 2 6 7 15 KEY WEST FL X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTXS31 PGTW 152100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 80.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 80.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.4S 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 80.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY IN THE LAST 12 HOURS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 10 FEET.// ** WTNT43 KNHC 152046 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND SURFACE CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CIRCULATION IS RATHER BROAD AND THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 MILES FROM THE INITIAL POINT IN THE ADVISORY. THIS IS COMMON IN DEVELOPING SYSTEMS. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE YET. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS SO FAR A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDL MAKES THIS CYCLONE A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...AND MORE ALONG THE LINE OF THE SHIPS MODEL. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BLOCKING ANY NORTHWARD MOTION AND IS KEEPING VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. BY THEN...A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE COULD DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...THE UK...THE ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS MODELS. THE GFS DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP THE CYCLONE AND DOES NOT CARRY THE SYSTEM MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...BOTH GENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 17.6N 78.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 79.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 80.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.5N 81.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 17.5N 82.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 85 KT $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 152054 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 30 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SABADO 24 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ... RITA SE DEBILITA A DEPRESION TROPICAL PERO PERMANECE COMO UN PRODUCTOR DE FUERTES LLUVIAS... A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.9 OESTE...O COMO A 40 MILLAS AL NORTE DE SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. UN GIRO GRADUAL AL NORESTE SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD SON PROBABLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 985 MILIBARAS...29.09 PULGADAS. LAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS DEBEN CONTINUAR BAJANDO LENTAMENTE ESTA NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO... EL OLEAJE A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DEL SURESTE DE LUISIANA Y MISSISSIPPI EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA PODRIAN SER DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL Y PUDIERAN ESTAR ACOMPANADAS POR OLAS GRANDES. LOS RESIDENTES EN ESA AREA ESTAN EXPERIMENTANDO INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. MAREJADAS GRANDES GENERADAS POR RITA PODRIAN CONTINUAR AFECTANDO LAS PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL ENTRE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A LO LARGO DEL PASO DE LA TORMENTA DESDE EL NORESTE DE TEXAS HACIA EL NORTE DENTRO DE PORCIONES DEL OESTE DE LOS VALLES DE MISSISSIPPI. TOTALES MAXIMOS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES HOY Y ESTA NOCHE Y EL DOMINGO SOBRE AL ESTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE RITA...SOBRE EL NORTE DE LOUISIANA...EL NORTE Y OESTE DE MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS...Y EL OESTE DE TENNESSEE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...33.0 NORTE...93.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...985 MB. ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA PUBLICA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES SOBRE RITA. FUTURA INFORMACION DE ESTE SISTEMA SE PUEDE ENCONTAR EN LOS AVISOS PUBLICOS EMITIDOS POR EL CENTRO DE PREDICIONES HIDROMETEOROLOGICAS. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION: CASTRO ** WTNT24 KNHC 152102 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 2100Z SAT OCT 15 2005 ...CORRECTED FOR BIN NUMBER...BIN 4 INSTEAD OF 3 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAYBE REQUIRED FOR FOR GRAND CAYMAN LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.8W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB EYE DIAMETER 60 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.8W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 81.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 78.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 152104 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005 ..CORRECTION FOR BIN NUMBER...BIN 4 INSTEAD OF 3 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAYBE REQUIRED FOR FOR GRAND CAYMAN LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 140 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 152105 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005 ...CORRECTED BIN NUMBER...BIN 4 INSTEAD OF 3... THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND SURFACE CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CIRCULATION IS RATHER BROAD AND THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 MILES FROM THE INITIAL POINT IN THE ADVISORY. THIS IS COMMON IN DEVELOPING SYSTEMS. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE YET. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS SO FAR A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDL MAKES THIS CYCLONE A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...AND MORE ALONG THE LINE OF THE SHIPS MODEL. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BLOCKING ANY NORTHWARD MOTION AND IS KEEPING VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. BY THEN...A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE COULD DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...THE UK...THE ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS MODELS. THE GFS DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP THE CYCLONE AND DOES NOT CARRY THE SYSTEM MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...BOTH GENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 17.6N 78.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 79.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 80.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.5N 81.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 17.5N 82.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 85 KT $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 152106 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005 ...CORRECTED BIN NUMBER...BIN 4 INSTEAD OF 3... PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.5N 80.0W 58 X X X 58 MUHA 230N 824W X X 2 7 9 17.5N 80.5W 43 X X X 43 MUAN 219N 850W X X 2 9 11 17.5N 81.0W 29 1 1 1 32 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 1 8 9 MKJP 179N 768W X 2 3 6 11 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 4 4 MKJS 185N 779W 57 X X X 57 MHNJ 165N 859W X X 2 7 9 MWCG 193N 814W 14 6 2 3 25 MNPC 141N 834W X 1 1 5 7 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 3 3 SKSP 126N 817W X X X 3 3 MUCM 214N 779W 1 2 2 4 9 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 MUCF 221N 805W X 3 4 5 12 MARATHON FL X X X 2 2 MUSN 216N 826W X 2 6 7 15 KEY WEST FL X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPH RPLL 151800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 24 AT 1800 15 OCTOBER TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 24.0N 132.4E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 40MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 150KMS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 161800 25.9N 134.3E AT 171800 27.4N 136.7E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 152112 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SABADO 15 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...SE FORMA DEPRESION TROPICAL EN EL MAR CARIBE OCCIDENTAL... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PODRIAN SER REQUERIDOS PARA LAS ISLAS GRAND CAYMAN MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.8 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS...315 KILOMETROS... AL SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES PRINCIPALMENTE EN TURBONADAS AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA DEPRESION PUDIERAN TORNARSE COMO TORMENTA TROPICAL EL DOMINGO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...17.6 N...78.8 O. EL MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1004 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ /VAZQUEZ ** WTPH20 RPMM 151800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 24 AAT 1800 15 OCTOBER TYPHOON (KIROGI)(0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 161800 TWO FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT THEE EAST AT 171800 TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 152200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 11.0N 101.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 00 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 101.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 11.0N 101.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 11.0N 102.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 11.0N 103.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 152200Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 101.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 152137 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005 ...CORRECTION FOR BIN NUMBER...BIN 4 INSTEAD OF 3 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAYBE REQUIRED FOR FOR GRAND CAYMAN LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 140 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 152139 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SABADO 15 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...SE FORMA DEPRESION TROPICAL EN EL MAR CARIBE OCCIDENTAL... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PODRIAN SER REQUERIDOS PARA LAS ISLAS GRAND CAYMAN MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTICUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.8 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS...315 KILOMETROS... AL SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES PRINCIPALMENTE EN TURBONADAS AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA DEPRESION PUDIERAN TORNARSE COMO TORMENTA TROPICAL EL DOMINGO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...17.6 N...78.8 O. EL MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1004 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ /VAZQUEZ ** WTJP31 RJTD 152100 *** WARNING 152100. WARNING VALID 162100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 24.1N 132.7E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 26.4N 134.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 152100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 152100UTC 24.1N 132.7E GOOD MOVE ENE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 162100UTC 26.4N 134.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 171800UTC 28.6N 135.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 181800UTC 30.7N 138.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT =