** WTSR20 WSSS 150600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 151207 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/10/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 011/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/10/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1001 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 80.4E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE , EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTEASTERN QUADRANT, LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/16 AT 00 UTC: 14.3S / 79.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/10/16 AT 12 UTC: 14.5S / 78.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM NR 2 WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. NEVERTHELESS, LOWER LAYER CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH STRONG WINDS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SYSTEM NR 2 IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAILY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, DISSIPATING GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 151208 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/15 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 80.4E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/16 00 UTC: 14.3S/79.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/10/16 12 UTC: 14.5S/78.2E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/10/17 00 UTC: 14.8S/76.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2005/10/17 12 UTC: 14.9S/75.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2005/10/18 00 UTC: 14.9S/73.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5 AND CI=2.0 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEAKENEND : UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE WITH A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A GOOD DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ; BUT LOWER LAYER ENERGETIC CONDITIONS BECOME CRITICAL WITH SST ONLY REACHING 26 TO 27 DEGREES. NWP MODELS AGREE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM MAINLY WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, DISSIPATING IT GRADUALLY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 151200 UTC 00HR 23.8N 131.9E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NNE 10KM/H P+24HR 25.7N 133.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 28.3N 135.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 30.8N 137.6E 965HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 151200 *** WARNING 151200. WARNING VALID 161200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 23.8N 131.8E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 25.5N 134.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 27.7N 135.1E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 29.5N 135.8E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 151200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 151200UTC 23.8N 131.8E GOOD MOVE ENE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 161200UTC 25.5N 134.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 171200UTC 27.7N 135.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 181200UTC 29.5N 135.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTXS31 PGTW 151500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 80.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 80.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.3S 79.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.6S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.8S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.0S 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 80.5E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 151425 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005 THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION AND LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION. IN FACT...THERE WAS NOT MUCH TO BEGIN WITH. T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS. LATEST QUICKSCAT SHOWS NO STRONG WINDS AND NO CIRCULATION. BECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUITY...I AM FORECASTING A LITTLE BIT OF INTENSIFICATION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM MODELS AND THE GFDL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 11.0N 101.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 11.0N 101.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 11.0N 102.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 11.0N 104.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 11.0N 105.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 11.0N 107.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 11.0N 108.5W 35 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 151425 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 1500Z SAT OCT 15 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.5W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.5W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 11.0N 101.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.0N 102.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.0N 104.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 11.0N 105.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 11.0N 107.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 11.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 101.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTXS31 PGTW 151500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 80.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 80.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.3S 79.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.6S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.8S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS ** WTXS31 PGTW 151500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 80.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 80.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.3S 79.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.6S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.8S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.0S 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 80.5E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 151500 RRB *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.0S 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 80.5E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 151200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 23 AT 1200 15 OCTOBER,TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 161200 TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT SIX EAST AT 171200 TWO SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 151200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 23 AT 1200 15 OCTOBER TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 23.8N 131.9E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 40MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 150KMS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 161200 25.7N 133.6E AT 171200 27.3N 136.3E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 151500 UTC 00HR 23.9N 132.0E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NNE 5KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 151500 *** WARNING 151500. WARNING VALID 161500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 23.9N 132.1E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 25.7N 134.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 151500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 151500UTC 23.9N 132.1E GOOD MOVE ENE 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 161500UTC 25.7N 134.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 171200UTC 27.7N 135.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 181200UTC 29.5N 135.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 151710 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.10.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 101.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.10.2005 11.0N 101.6W WEAK 00UTC 16.10.2005 11.2N 101.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2005 11.5N 102.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2005 11.8N 102.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2005 12.0N 103.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 12.4N 104.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 12.6N 106.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2005 12.3N 107.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2005 11.6N 110.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2005 11.4N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2005 11.4N 114.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2005 11.4N 116.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2005 12.2N 117.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 17.8N 77.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.10.2005 17.8N 77.8W WEAK 00UTC 16.10.2005 18.1N 78.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 18.3N 78.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2005 18.2N 78.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 18.0N 78.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 17.8N 79.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 17.7N 79.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2005 17.7N 79.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2005 17.8N 80.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2005 18.1N 81.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2005 18.4N 81.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.10.2005 18.8N 82.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2005 19.3N 82.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151710