** WTIO20 FMEE 150614 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/10/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/10/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 81.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE , EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTEASTERN QUADRANT, LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/15 AT 18 UTC: 14.2S / 80.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/10/16 AT 06 UTC: 14.6S / 78.6E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ENVIRONMENT IS LESS FAVOURABLE FOR SYSTEM NR 2, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, LOWER LAYER CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH STRONG WINDS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SYSTEM NR 2 IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, DISSIPATING GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 150614 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/15 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 81.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/15 18 UTC: 14.2S/80.0E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/10/16 06 UTC: 14.6S/78.6E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/10/16 18 UTC: 14.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/10/17 06 UTC: 15.2S/75.7E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/10/17 18 UTC: 15.2S/74.0E DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/10/18 06 UTC: 15.2S/72.2E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 AND CI=2.5- CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEAKENEND : UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE WITH A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A GOOD DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ; BUT LOWER LAYER ENERGETIC CONDITIONS BECOME CRITICAL WITH SST ONLY REACHING 26 TO 27 DEGREES. NWP MODELS AGREE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR A WHILE, AND THEN TO TRACK THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 150600 UTC 00HR 23.5N 131.3E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 5KM/H P+24HR 25.6N 132.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 28.2N 135.3E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 32.6N 141.0E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 150600 *** WARNING 150600. WARNING VALID 160600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 23.5N 131.3E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 24.7N 132.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 26.0N 133.7E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 28.6N 136.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 150600UTC 23.5N 131.3E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 160600UTC 24.7N 132.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 170600UTC 26.0N 133.7E 160NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 180600UTC 28.6N 136.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTIN20 DEMS 150645 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 15-10-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 19.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTIO20 FMEE 150655 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/10/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/10/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 81.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE , EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTEASTERN QUADRANT, LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/15 AT 18 UTC: 14.2S / 80.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/10/16 AT 06 UTC: 14.6S / 78.6E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: **** CORRECTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE **** ENVIRONMENT IS LESS FAVOURABLE FOR SYSTEM NR 2, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, LOWER LAYER CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH STRONG WINDS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SYSTEM NR 2 IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, DISSIPATING GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 150656 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/15 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 81.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/15 18 UTC: 14.2S/80.0E, MAX WIND=030KT . 24H: 2005/10/16 06 UTC: 14.6S/78.6E, MAX WIND=030KT . 36H: 2005/10/16 18 UTC: 14.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=025KT . 48H: 2005/10/17 06 UTC: 15.2S/75.7E, MAX WIND=025KT . 60H: 2005/10/17 18 UTC: 15.2S/74.0E DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/10/18 06 UTC: 15.2S/72.2E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: **** CORRECTED MSLP **** T=2.0 AND CI=2.5- CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEAKENEND : UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE WITH A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A GOOD DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ; BUT LOWER LAYER ENERGETIC CONDITIONS BECOME CRITICAL WITH SST ONLY REACHING 26 TO 27 DEGREES. NWP MODELS AGREE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR A WHILE, AND THEN TO TRACK THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 150600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 150600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 150600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0520 KIROGI ANALYSIS POSITION 150600UTC 23.5N 131.2E MOVEMENT N 3KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 160600UTC 24.8N 132.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 170600UTC 26.5N 133.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 180600UTC 29.0N 136.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 150900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 23.6N 131.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 131.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 24.2N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 24.8N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 25.9N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 27.3N 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 29.8N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 32.2N 138.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 34.9N 141.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 131.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 150830 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER REMAINING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THERE IS POOR TO FAIR CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/2. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W-125W. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD FILL STARTING IN ABOUT 48-72 HR...AND THE RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BUILD WESTWARD. THIS MEANS IN THE LONGER TERM THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TAKE A WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GFDL...BAMD...AND BAMM CALL FOR AN INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD. THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR LITTLE MOTION AS THE SYSTEM GETS STRETCHED ALONG THE ITCZ. GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW MOTION FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH IN DEFERENCE TO THE TROUGH AND THE GFDL FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AS TO HOW MUCH. THE GFS FORECAST A BURST OF SHEAR IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE TO VALUES THAT WOULD LET THE CYCLONE STRENGTHEN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CANADIAN FORECASTS A MUCH MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WITH STRONGER SHEAR AND A LONGER TIME BEFORE IT DECREASES. THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL SEEN NEARBY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAY ALSO BE INHIBITING FACTORS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS BE ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE LESS BULLISH SHIPS MODEL RATHER THAN LEANING TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL. WHILE THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AT 96-120 HR...IT IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW WHAT SHIPS IS FORECASTING. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 11.0N 101.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 11.1N 102.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 11.1N 102.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 11.2N 103.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 11.3N 104.1W 40 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 11.5N 105.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 11.5N 107.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 11.5N 108.5W 45 KT $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 150600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 22 AT 0600 15 OCOTBER TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 160600 TWO FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT THREE EAST AT 170600 TWO SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 150845 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 0900Z SAT OCT 15 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.6W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.6W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 11.1N 102.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 11.1N 102.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 11.2N 103.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.3N 104.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 11.5N 105.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 11.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 11.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 101.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 150900 UTC 00HR 23.7N 131.4E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 5KM/H P+24HR 25.6N 132.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 28.0N 135.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 30.6N 137.0E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPN31 PHNC 151000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 11.0N 101.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 101.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 11.1N 102.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 11.1N 102.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 11.2N 103.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 11.3N 104.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 11.5N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 11.5N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 11.5N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 150900UTC 23.6N 131.4E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 160900UTC 24.7N 132.9E 100NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 170600UTC 26.0N 133.7E 160NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 180600UTC 28.6N 136.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 150900 *** WARNING 150900. WARNING VALID 160900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 23.6N 131.4E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160900UTC AT 24.7N 132.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 150600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 22 AT 0600 15 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 160600 TWO FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT THREE EAST AT 170600 TWO SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD=