** WTSR20 WSSS 141800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 150005 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/10/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 9/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/10/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 80.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST ) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 230 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE , EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 65 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 330 NM IN THE SOUTEASTERN QUADRANT, LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/15 AT 12 UTC: 14.1S / 79.7E, MAX WIND = 35 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/10/16 AT 00 UTC: 14.8S / 78.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DEEP CONVECTION IS LESS ORGANIZED DURING LAST FEW HOURS. WINDS REPARTITION ISN'T SYMETRIC AND WINDS ARE STRONGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITHOUT INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AND THEN RECURVE WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES RE-BUILDING BY THE SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE IN A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 150000 UTC 00HR 23.3N 131.2E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 5KM/H P+24HR 24.9N 132.1E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 27.6N 134.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 31.6N 139.9E 965HPA 38M/S= ** WTIO30 FMEE 150019 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/15 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 80.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 600 SO: 450 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/15 12 UTC: 14.1S/79.7E, MAX WIND=035KT. 24H: 2005/10/16 00 UTC: 14.8S/78.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/10/16 12 UTC: 15.3S/76.9E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2005/10/17 00 UTC: 15.5S/75.6E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/10/17 12 UTC: 15.5S/74.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/10/18 00 UTC: 15.5S/72.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- AND CI=2.5 CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCALISED MORE SOUTHERN (CF AQUA-1 2010 UTC) AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED DURING THE LAST HOURS INSPITE OF A SILL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. GEOGRAPHICS WINDS REPARTITION REMAINS NON-SYMETRIC (CF LAST DESCENDING QUIKSCAT PASS). LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS WELL SUSTAINED BY A GOOD NORTHERLY TRANS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS LOW, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITHOUT DEEPEN IT SIGNIFICANTLY AND THEN RECURVE WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES RE-BUILDING BY THE SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD THEN BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE IN A UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT N RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EXPECTED STRONGER NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A LESS ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT (CF DEPTH 26AOC OF NOAA).= ** WTIO30 FMEE 150019 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/15 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 80.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 600 SO: 450 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/15 12 UTC: 14.1S/79.7E, MAX WIND=035KT. 24H: 2005/10/16 00 UTC: 14.8S/78.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/10/16 12 UTC: 15.3S/76.9E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2005/10/17 00 UTC: 15.5S/75.6E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/10/17 12 UTC: 15.5S/74.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/10/18 00 UTC: 15.5S/72.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- AND CI=2.5 CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCALISED MORE SOUTHERN (CF AQUA-1 2010 UTC) AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED DURING THE LAST HOURS INSPITE OF A SILL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. GEOGRAPHICS WINDS REPARTITION REMAINS NON-SYMETRIC (CF LAST DESCENDING QUIKSCAT PASS). LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS WELL SUSTAINED BY A GOOD NORTHERLY TRANS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS LOW, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITHOUT DEEPEN IT SIGNIFICANTLY AND THEN RECURVE WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES RE-BUILDING BY THE SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD THEN BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE IN A UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT N RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EXPECTED STRONGER NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A LESS ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT (CF DEPTH 26AOC OF NOAA).= ** WTJP21 RJTD 150000 *** WARNING 150000. WARNING VALID 160000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 23.3N 131.3E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 24.9N 132.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 27.9N 135.5E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 32.5N 140.4E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 150000UTC 23.3N 131.3E GOOD MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 160000UTC 24.9N 132.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 170000UTC 27.9N 135.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 180000UTC 32.5N 140.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 15KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 150000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 150244 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005 0300Z SAT OCT 15 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.2W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.2W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.2W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 11.0N 101.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 11.0N 102.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.0N 103.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.0N 105.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 11.0N 106.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 11.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 101.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 150259 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2005 SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 400 NMI SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO IMPROVED... AS HAVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TAFB REPORTED A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT WITH A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.4/35 KT... AND THE 3HR ODT AVERAGE WAS T2.9/44 KT WITH A PEAK RAW ODT VALUE OF T3.5/55 KT. HOWEVER... CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED IN THE CURVED BAND ON THE WEST SIDE SINCE 00Z... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY...OR POSSIBLY A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST. THE NHC MODELS ARE WIDELY DIVERGENT WITH A MOTION BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFDL TAKES THE DEPRESSION WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY AND INTENSIFIES IT INTO AN 81-KT HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM RELATIVELY WEAK AND EVEN DISSIPATE IT BY 48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AT THIS TIME AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... ONLY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE GENERAL TREND INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY... THE GFDL IS QUITE ROBUST IN INTENSIFYING THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD LESSER INTENSIFICATION WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN SINCE 00Z YESTERDAY WHEN IT WAS FORECASTING A 95-KT HURRICANE. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE... AND THE SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN WHICH THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR VERY MODEST INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WHICH ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 44 KT BY 96 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 11.0N 101.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 11.0N 101.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 11.0N 102.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 11.0N 103.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.9W 40 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 11.0N 105.3W 40 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 11.0N 106.6W 40 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 11.0N 108.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 150000 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 21 AT 0000 15 OCTOBER, TYPHOON(KIROGI)(0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 160000 TWO FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE PNE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 170000 TWO SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 150300 UTC 00HR 23.5N 131.2E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 5KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 150300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 23.3N 131.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 131.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 23.7N 131.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 24.7N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 25.8N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 27.2N 134.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 30.4N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 34.3N 143.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 39.1N 151.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 131.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 150300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140130ZOCT2005// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 80.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 80.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.9S 79.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.9S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.8S 77.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.4S 75.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 80.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 150300 *** WARNING 150300. WARNING VALID 160300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 23.5N 131.3E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 25.0N 132.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 150300UTC 23.5N 131.3E GOOD MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 160300UTC 25.0N 132.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 170000UTC 27.9N 135.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 180000UTC 32.5N 140.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 15KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 150400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 11.0N 101.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 101.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 11.0N 101.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 11.0N 102.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 11.0N 103.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 11.0N 103.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 11.0N 105.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 11.0N 106.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 11.0N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 150400Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 101.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z. ** WTPH RPLL 150000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 21 AT 0000 15 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAS T POSITIONS AT 160000 TWO FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 170000 TWO SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTXS31 PGTW 150300 RRB *** 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.4S 75.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 80.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 150300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140130ZOCT2005// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 80.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 80.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.9S 79.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.9S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.8S 77.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.4S 75.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 80.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 150451 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 10.4N 128.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2005 10.4N 128.9W WEAK 12UTC 15.10.2005 10.5N 129.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 11.1N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 11.0N 132.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2005 11.1N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 11.2N 135.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 12.0N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 12.9N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2005 13.9N 137.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.10.2005 14.7N 138.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 18.7N 75.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2005 18.7N 75.9W WEAK 12UTC 15.10.2005 19.0N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2005 18.6N 79.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 17.7N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2005 16.8N 79.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 16.9N 78.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 17.7N 79.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 17.7N 80.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2005 16.5N 81.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.10.2005 17.7N 81.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 18.5N 83.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2005 19.4N 84.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2005 20.2N 85.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150451