** WTIO20 FMEE 141805 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/10/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/10/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 997 HPA POSITION: 11.4S / 81.2E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 160 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 65 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 330 NM IN THE SOUTEASTERN QUADRANT, LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/15 AT 06 UTC: 12.5S / 80.0E, MAX WIND = 35 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/10/15 AT 18 UTC: 13.6S / 78.5E, MAX WIND = 35 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DEEP CONVECTION RE-INTENSIFIES AS USUALLY DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS REPARTITION ISN'T SYMETRIC AND WINDS ARE STRONGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 141808 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/14 AT 1800 UTC : 11.4S / 81.2E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 600 SO: 450 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/15 06 UTC: 12.5S/80.0E, MAX WIND=035KT. 24H: 2005/10/15 18 UTC: 13.6S/78.5E, MAX WIND=035KT. 36H: 2005/10/16 06 UTC: 14.1S/77.4E, MAX WIND=035KT. 48H: 2005/10/16 18 UTC: 14.4S/76.7E, MAX WIND=030KT. 60H: 2005/10/17 06 UTC: 14.8S/76.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/10/17 18 UTC: 15.3S/75.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 DEEP CONVECTION IS REINFORCING THIS NIGHT AND STILL SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. GEOGRAPHICS WINDS REPARTITION REMAINS NON-SYMETRIC (CF LAST DESCENDING QUIKSCAT PASS). LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS WELL SUSTAINED BY A GOOD NORTHERLY TRANS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS LOW, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IT IS EXPECTED DEEPENING VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENING WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EXPECTED STRONGER NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A LESS ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT WEST OF 80E AND SOUTH OF 14S (CF DEPTH 26AOC OF NOAA).= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 141800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 141800UTC 23.0N 131.1E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 151800UTC 24.7N 132.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 161800UTC 27.7N 135.9E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 171800UTC 31.6N 139.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 141800 *** WARNING 141800. WARNING VALID 151800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 23.0N 131.1E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 24.7N 132.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 27.7N 135.9E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 31.6N 139.8E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 141800 UTC 00HR 23.1N 131.1E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 5KM/H P+24HR 24.5N 131.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 27.3N 134.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 30.4N 137.2E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 142100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 23.1N 131.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 131.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 23.4N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 24.3N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 25.4N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 26.9N 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 30.3N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 34.1N 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 39.1N 151.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 131.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARN- INGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 141800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 20 AT 1800 14 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI)(0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATEELITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 151800 TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT ZERO EAST AT 161800 TWO SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT NINE EAST AND AT 171800 TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 142100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 142100 UTC 00HR 23.2N 131.1E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 5KM/H P+24HR 24.6N 131.7E 945HPA 50M/S P+48HR 27.2N 134.2E 955HPA 45M/S P+72HR 30.5N 137.9E 965HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 142100 *** WARNING 142100. WARNING VALID 152100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 23.2N 131.3E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 24.9N 133.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 142100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 142100UTC 23.2N 131.3E GOOD MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 152100UTC 24.9N 133.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 161800UTC 27.7N 135.9E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 171800UTC 31.6N 139.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPH RPLL 141800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 20 AT 1800 14 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAS T POSITIONS AT 151800 TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT ZERO EAST AT 161800 TWO SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT NINE EAST AND AT 171800 TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD=